Risk assessment of nitrate in drinking water: Difference between revisions

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=== Boundaries ===
=== Boundaries ===


* European countries in selected regions:  
'''European countries in selected regions:'''
 
* First pass assessment:
**England and Wales 
 
* Second pass assessment:
** England and Wales
** Finland
** Finland
** UK: England and Wales
** Spain
** Spain
** Romania
** Romania
**Hungary
**Hungary
* Infants < 6 months of age
* Infants < 6 months of age
* Exposure to nitrate via baby food formula mixed with drinking water and via drinking water
* Exposure to nitrate via baby food formula mixed with drinking water and via drinking water (onlt tap water in the first pass asessment)
* Effects: infant methemoglobinemia (iMetHb). More detailed information about methemoglobinemia and other nitrate related health effects is found in [http://www.pyrkilo.fi/intarese/index.php/WP3.4_Selection_of_health_outcome_for_nitrates| INTAESE wiki].
* Effects: infant methemoglobinemia (iMetHb). More detailed information about methemoglobinemia and other nitrate related health effects is found in [http://www.pyrkilo.fi/intarese/index.php/WP3.4_Selection_of_health_outcome_for_nitrates| INTAESE wiki].


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* Drinking water source: Tap water or well water
* Drinking water source: Tap water or well water
* Increased use of bottled water
* Increased use of bottled water
* Decrease in breast feeding


For the first pass it was deemed appropriate to carry out a diagnostic assessment i.e. to estimate the scale of the health impacts under present conditions, which in this case make use of 2003 as the baseline year. It was recognised that the causal diagram should be constructed in such a way that the introduction of policy scenarios is possible, since this is intended for the second pass of the assessment. The introduction of such potential policy scenarios would allow the diagnostic assessment to be transformed into a prognostic assessment i.e. a causal diagram which allows the estimation the likely consequences of different policy options, primarly as a basis for choosing between them. <ref name="briggs">Briggs DJ. Integrated assessment for policies on environmental health. Draft. Unpublished document. 2008.
For the first pass it was deemed appropriate to carry out a diagnostic assessment i.e. to estimate the scale of the health impacts under present conditions, which in this case make use of 2003 as the baseline year. We also looked at only areas in England and Wales. It was recognised that the causal diagram should be constructed in such a way that the introduction of policy scenarios is possible, since this is intended for the second pass of the assessment. The introduction of such potential policy scenarios would allow the diagnostic assessment to be transformed into a prognostic assessment i.e. a causal diagram which allows the estimation the likely consequences of different policy options, primarly as a basis for choosing between them. <ref name="briggs">Briggs DJ. Integrated assessment for policies on environmental health. Draft. Unpublished document. 2008.
</ref>
</ref>


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=== Indices ===
=== Indices ===


* [http://www.pyrkilo.fi/intarese/index.php/Index:Area| England and Wales areas]
* [http://www.pyrkilo.fi/intarese/index.php/Index:Area| Areas in England and Wales]
* Finland areas
* Finland areas
* Country
* Country

Revision as of 07:12, 4 September 2008


This is the main page of the WP3.4 assessment of the health impacts of nitrate in drinking water. This and the articles linked to it describe the first pass assessment.

The article of the reporting associated with this assessment (i.e. the deliverable) is located here. The assessment itself is located on INTARESE Mediawiki.


Background material:

This is the main page of nitrate risk assessment conducted in INTARESE WP3.4. The analytica file can be uploaded here: File:Nitrate.ANA. Detailed information about nitrates in drinking water is found in INTARESE wiki.



Scope

Purpose

To investigate the effects of nitrate contaminated drinking water.

Boundaries

European countries in selected regions:

  • First pass assessment:
    • England and Wales
  • Second pass assessment:
    • England and Wales
    • Finland
    • Spain
    • Romania
    • Hungary
  • Infants < 6 months of age
  • Exposure to nitrate via baby food formula mixed with drinking water and via drinking water (onlt tap water in the first pass asessment)
  • Effects: infant methemoglobinemia (iMetHb). More detailed information about methemoglobinemia and other nitrate related health effects is found in INTAESE wiki.

Scenarios

This assessment focused only on the current situation, therefore scenarios are not included in the assessment. In the future the assessment may contain the following scenarios:

  • Drinking water source: Tap water or well water
  • Increased use of bottled water

For the first pass it was deemed appropriate to carry out a diagnostic assessment i.e. to estimate the scale of the health impacts under present conditions, which in this case make use of 2003 as the baseline year. We also looked at only areas in England and Wales. It was recognised that the causal diagram should be constructed in such a way that the introduction of policy scenarios is possible, since this is intended for the second pass of the assessment. The introduction of such potential policy scenarios would allow the diagnostic assessment to be transformed into a prognostic assessment i.e. a causal diagram which allows the estimation the likely consequences of different policy options, primarly as a basis for choosing between them. [1]

Intended users

Participants

  • Researchers at KTL
  • Researcher at Imperial College London
  • Researchers at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
  • Researchers at Municipal Institute of Medical Research Foundation

Definition

Causal diagram

Detailed documentation of the design, elaboration and construction of the causal diagram to be used in this assessment is given in article found in |INTARESE wiki. The final draft is presented in figure 1. The working Analytica version of the nitrate model File:Nitrate.ANA.

  • Figure 1 - Causal diagram for assessment of the impacts of exposure to nitrate due to MetHg

    Figure 1 - Causal diagram for assessment of the impacts of exposure to nitrate due to MetHg

  • Figure 2 - Analytica model of nitrate risk assessment

    Figure 2 - Analytica model of nitrate risk assessment

Decision variables

Indicators

Other variables

Indices

Modules

  • Figure 3 - Sources

    Figure 3 - Sources

  • Figure 4 - Exposure

    Figure 4 - Exposure

  • Figure 5 Dose response

    Figure 5 Dose response

  • Figure 6 - Health effects

    Figure 6 - Health effects

Analyses

Result

Results

Excess cased of iMetHb


Min Median Mean Max Std. Dev.
ang 4.379261194793641e-006 3.847597201790526e-003 0.1764231179486598 622.3192315450723 8.647306366248591
bou 6.152150102290086e-006 5.375449657922692e-003 10.58646550163398 8.001200831378713e+004 830.6531323622047
brw 4.454647443738536e-006 3.290376487938253e-003 15.96246947527328 1.43984447085521e+005 1447.60608736766
caw 9.223044405283126e-006 7.987090012198807e-003 2309.805085339419 1.590299303434219e+007 1.732889028794849e+005
cho 8.16484679314486e-006 7.028345604564555e-003 185.811018331088 1.231930046257489e+006 1.352256438298756e+004
dcc 7.437855220554363e-007 5.991015492996586e-004 4.093112726278305e-003 4.749570763833332 0.05137144317694659
eas 8.757724991737398e-006 5.253195524232276e-003 34.262957420025 3.372187884835449e+005 3372.338453142389
ess 2.424515101559594e-006 4.13259760816668e-003 34.95915683711863 3.487125704249137e+005 3487.125897868396
fol 3.827481811899054e-006 5.686946506511489e-003 16.09634524394721 1.331078524469925e+005 1346.554408865596
har 1.295013707239071e-006 1.094733113858843e-003 5.106845141056453e-003 2.286420750105928 0.03899765649225059
mik 3.352702041664116e-006 3.87378815650508e-003 4.447629272535715 2.776058946771572e+004 322.0660144885644
nor 1.000981411033315e-008 7.996248918385011e-004 3.850309512607605e+063 3.850309512607605e+067 3.85030951260784e+065
nww 3.529523520295868e-007 5.691896004402131e-004 0.02012505819598403 136.6633141665643 1.37466773904038
por 6.948358646294438e-006 5.88996477104971e-003 121.0394346889222 1.182788799881443e+006 1.183041515575052e+004
sea 4.079339785557403e-006 3.419956270015863e-003 0.07404738549259982 331.1540425232029 3.66465548236026
sev 4.520115219800164e-006 3.834105849700955e-003 0.2065733917632781 899.2365638797742 11.5962438813709
sos 8.303983924823974e-006 3.915383586033052e-003 0.387879773169181 1538.851521908299 20.74422836534712
sou 5.712656738275876e-006 6.159371603180619e-003 2753.679194641601 2.376834654619418e+007 2.406418299440552e+005
sww 2.576167682546308e-007 9.632059292909766e-004 0.01843743720315559 61.76370891994082 0.7696895034015112
teh 1.461990902476878e-006 1.255512180125084e-003 5.929486183770713e-003 3.288077446520652 0.05208145655204863
tha 8.941801397064362e-006 5.694444241558322e-003 722.1811466172278 7.187675052376742e+006 7.18771020093066e+004
thr 7.387519993576114e-006 5.732671894716331e-003 198.4471013694464 1.195747040827789e+006 1.398807148019777e+004
wes 3.187856388326675e-006 4.302891905164752e-003 1.959645359658838e+005 1.959642675711517e+009 1.959642675443615e+007
wrx 1.068489917316954e-006 9.629857512072751e-004 5.52291745044664e-003 3.95824288377023 0.05322298374036467
yor 7.524957916560245e-007 1.26432062450843e-003 0.01973950042174603 36.33773333522452 0.5349377754431618


Conclusions

References

  1. ↑ Briggs DJ. Integrated assessment for policies on environmental health. Draft. Unpublished document. 2008.
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