Talk:Science-policy interface

Application to the Academy of Finland 25.9.2013

The application written in Finnish was sent to the Kunnallisalan kehittämissäätiö. The basis for the Academy application is similar, but more theoretical work will be done to identify problems in the science-policy interface, and larger practical case studies will be done. And the application should be translated into English.

• Instructions

Metadata about document Avoimen päätösvalmistelun työkalutestaus (rahoitushakemus SA:lle 9/2013) (in Finnish) help

Nimi: Avoimen päätösvalmistelun työkalutestaus (rahoitushakemus SA:lle 9/2013) Tehtäväryhmä: 6.00.01.08 Tehtäväryhmän nimi: Rahoitushakemus Rekisteröinti: Vastuualue: YMAL Vastuuhenkilö: Jouni Tuomisto Luotu: 3.9.2013 Säilytysaika: 15 v Säilytysmuoto: Sähköinen Julkisuus: Julkinen Suojeluluokka: 2 (tutkimuksellisista, juridisista tai taloudellisista syistä suojeltavat asiakirjat) Lisätiedot: Pysyvä linkki: [6] Hyväksyntä: Ei ole

Abstract

There is fair agreement that more participatory approaches to societal decision making would, in general, be a positive thing. It has been seen important especially when including objectives such as environment, health, or wellbeing. Also, more extensive use of scientific information is widely believed to produce better decisions. However, it has been unclear how to improve from the current situation. Widely known problems are that open discussions are often hijacked by extremists and the moderate majority is not heard; careful researchers don't win debates against populists in two-minute time frame; and the public is unable to conclude between competing hypotheses even if a clear majority of researchers are in agreement. So, there is no guarantee that a participatory or evidence-based decision process actually succeeds in a particular case.

There is recent research showing that it is especially the practices of policy making (rather than e.g. better communication by researchers) that should be changed to improve participation and the use of evidence. However, cultural practices of decision making change slowly. Therefore, in this project we implement and study situations where practices are only changed within a limited context, namely an open decision support club, or decision club for short.

The decision club is a joint effort and forum for decision makers, researchers, and all stakeholders. The club focusses on creating shared understanding about a decision situation, the options considered and outcomes expected. The purpose of the club is to produce an open web report including quantitative modelling and recommendations to support the decision. Anyone can join the club, but the members must follow its practices and rules about e.g. structured discussion and criticism based on relevance and facts. The work is organised and done in a web-workspace designed for this task, and it is managed by trained moderators. The overall objective is to produce and recommend better practices for current decision making processes and organisations.

We hypothesise that the practical challenges performed and studied in the case studies of this project will demonstrate that a) the participatory processes are manageable and efficient if implemented within such decision clubs and workspaces, b) the recommendations produced take into account the plurality of views present in the society, c) the conclusions made are systematically consistent with scientific knowledge, and d) the information produced will be practical and applicable in the particular decision situations that are examined. Overall, we hope that such decision club approach will gain popularity due to its good decision support performance, which - importantly - can and will be measured with explicit indicators.

The main practices of the decision club and the technical solutions of the workspace have already been developed, implemented, and tested in pilot projects. For the first time, we will implement these practices and methods in large-scale, real-life case studies with actual decision making processes, participation by citizens, and useful and practical decision support. The research in this project will be about the applicability and performance of the method: Are decision makers willing to use the method in their work and why? Are the rules developed practical enough to actually guide discussions, participation, and research? What improvements are needed to increase the use of decision clubs and the performance of current societal decision making?

----tiivistys voisi olla paikallaan - keventäisin kuvausta vähemmän tekniseksi. Voisi esim. aloittaa siitä, että osallistavuus on viime aikoina noussut esiin järjestötoiminnasta hallituksen linjauksiin asti ja nyt tavoitteena on tutkia mikä osa tästä on kvantifioitavissa avoimella prosessilla ja kehittää nykyaikaista teknologiaa hyödyntäviä välineitä tähän ajankohtaiseen haasteeseen vastaamiseksi ja siihen liittyvien tutkimusongelmien kartoittamiseen; yksityiskohtaisempia kuvauksia voi siirtää myöhempään osaan hakemustekstiä. Hakemuksessa voisi viitata Valtioneuvoston tiedotteeseen 5.9.2013: "Hallitus hyväksyi tutkimuslaitosten ja tutkimusrahoituksen kokonaisuudistusta koskevan periaatepäätöksen" [7] 'Elämme tietoyhteiskunnassa vasta, kun tietoa ja tutkittua tietoa käytetään systemaattisesti päätöksenteon tukena Nyt tehty päätös vie Suomea merkittävästi kohti todellista tietoyhteiskuntaa. Sektoritutkimusjärjestelmän tulee ennakoida yhteiskunnan muuttuvia tietotarpeita. Sen on kyettävä joustavasti muuttamaan tutkimuksen painopisteitä ja tuottamaan tarvittavaa tietoa päättäjille sekä julkisella että yksityisellä sektorilla. Tavoitteena on, että tutkimus toimii yhteiskunnan kehittämisen ja päätöksenteon strategisena resurssina, toteaa pääministeri Jyrki Katainen.' - alottaisin jotenkin muuten kuin "more participatory .. is a positive thing"; sen sijaan voisi viitata suoraan siihen tosiasiaan että uudet teknologiat voivat parantaa demokraattisia vaikutusmahdollisuuksia, ja viimeaikainen kehitys on osoittanut (ks.esim. Avoin ministeriö ymv.) että kansalaiset ovat kiinnostuneita tästä;: . --Jouni 17:39, 19 September 2013 (EEST) {{{3}}} (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

----#: . Liikkeelle lähteminen väitteellä "osallistuminen on tärkeää" on riskialtista koska, jos arvioija ei satu itse olemaan osallistamisen asialla, mielenkiinto loppuu ensimmäiseen lauseeseen. Itse olen pyrkinyt lähestymään aihetta 1) vetoamalla tiedon tärkeyteen päätöksenteossa, 2) toteamalla monien näkökulmien ja tietolähteiden olevan välttämättömiä monimutkaisia asioita koskevan tiedon hankkimisessa ja hyödyntämisessä ja 3) vasta sitten nostanut esiin yleisen suuntauksen (monilla rintamilla) kohti osallistamista ja avoimuutta. Tällaista perustelua vastaan on perinteisen umpiotutkijankin hankalampi rimpuilla. --Mikko Pohjola 16:48, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Research plan

Guidance for the research plan: Finnish English

Project info

• 1. Principal investigator (PI), title of research project, site of research, duration of project (months)

• Hakijan nimi/ Hakijayhteisö/ Yhteyshenkilö: Jouni Tuomisto
• Toimi ja työpaikka: johtava tutkija, Terveyden ja hyvinvoinnin laitos, Ympäristöterveyden osasto
• Oppiarvo (ja jatko-opiskelupaikka): LT, dosentti
• Osoite: THL, PL 95
• Puhelin: 0295246305
• Postitoimipaikka: 70701 Kuopio
• Sähköposti: jouni.tuomisto[at]thl.fi
• Tutkimuksen nimi: Avoimen päätösvalmistelun työkalutestaus

Background

Significance of the research

Evidence-based decision making is a mega-trend in Finland and in other Western countries. Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen recently said that we live in an information society only when research knowledge is systematically used as a basis of decision making. In the Government plan there is an objective to utilise information about environment and health in all decision making. . Enterprise architecture, a management system focussing on information and practices, is in a running-in phase in Finnish administration. In addition, organisational changes are under way to improve the capability of Finnish research institutes to answer societal needs. There is clearly a strong tendency to improve the use of knowledge in the society, and good research-based solutions are needed.

However, organisational changes do not solve the whole problem. There are challenges especially in the capabilities of decision makers and decision making processes to actually utilise existing information. As an example, the 2009 climate negotiations in Copenhagen utilised the best available information, collected and synthesised by IPCC. Yet the policy makers were unable to absorb the information and turn that into global policies. In this project we will demonstrate and implement a decision support system, consisting of several methods, practices, and tools, that will help to bridge the science-policy gap ----#: . pelkkä "help to bridge the science-policy gap" on aika epämääräistä. Parempi oli nimetä jokunen konkreettinen asia, jotka projekti tuottaa science-policy gapin kuromisen keinoksi tai apuvälineeksi. --Mikko Pohjola 17:24, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment).

Our experience and also some case reports (Tuomisto, 2013) show that availability and usability ----#: . applicability? --Mikko Pohjola 17:24, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment) of information is a typical bottleneck in decision making. The so called Big Data movement has recently started to improve the situation, but current practices don't yet support its possibilities. (Mervis, 2012)

Indeed, there is a need for such decision support especially with issues like environment and health. They are widely accepted as important, but in many decisions they only play a small role among other interests and are easily ignored, if the relevant information is not readily available for the decision maker. Climate emissions, biodiversity, or fine particles from combustion are examples of widely dispersed and crucial issues that rarely dominate decision making.

A decision support system does not attempt to replace actual decision making. However, it can organise information, offer a discussion forum, and spread understanding to the society about what should or should not be done and why. Such a system can be seen as similar to recommendations of evidence-based medicine (käypä hoito) containing the best scientific evidence about how patients should be treated in particular situations. A doctor ultimately decides about the treatment, but doctors highly valuate evidence-based recommendations and update their own practices based on them. This project attempts to create an ecosystem for producing evidence-based decision support by developing the concept of open dynamic decision support societies or ODDS societies. ODDS societies would work beyond organisational and national boundaries, combining knowledge from and for decision makers, experts, citizens, and other stakeholders. ----#: . hyvä on myös kertoa missä määrin käypä päätös suositusten tuottaminen ja hyödyntäminen poikkeaisi käypä hoito suositusten tekemisestä ja käytöstä (lyhyesti: päätössuositukset syntyvät tiiviissä asiantuntijat-päättäjät-muut vuorovaikutuksessa käytön kanssa, hoitosuositukset erillään yksinomaan asiantuntijoiden toimesta. --Mikko Pohjola 17:24, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Even if a decision support model ----#: . mikä ero decision support systemillä ja modelilla? joson ero, pitää kertoa, jos ei pitää äyttää samaa nimitystä. --Mikko Pohjola 17:24, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment) is - due to lack of information - so simplistic that it does not help the decision maker in any way, it may still be very useful for other important purposes if it is done openly and shared. First, it may be illuminating and useful to a stakeholder who is interested but not aware of the details of the issue. Second, the possibility to describe a large number of distinct decisions within one system may be helpful for other decision makers in similar situations. Third, a scrutiny of multiple decisions at the same time may improve understanding of a bigger picture, leading to better decisions and outcomes for all.

Decision support provided by an ODDS society can be compared to solving a sudoku. There are 9⁸¹ different possibilities in an empty sudoku, and even in a typical starting position of a sudoku there is only one solution but more than 10⁵⁰ potential but wrong alternatives - more than atoms on Earth. Still, even a child can learn to rule out implausible alternatives and eventually find the only solution. Real-life problems do not have a single solution, but they typically have very many poor alternatives that may be chosen due to lack of knowledge or understanding. An ODDS society attempts to reduce such decisions by ruling out such bad alternatives. ----#: . Hauska analogia, mutta en ole varma tuleeko pointti (ilmeisten huonojen vaihtoehtojen poissulkeminen yhden parhaan tunnistamiseen pyrkimisen sijaan) riittävän selvästi esille. --Mikko Pohjola 17:24, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Because real-life problems are much more complex and fuzzy than sudokus, we need a large group of people to contribute their knowledge on a problem and computers to remember, calculate, compare, and reject implausible decision options and descriptions about how things might be. ----#: . yleensä terveys, ympäristö ja hyvinvointiasioita koskevat päätökset ymmärretään aika hyvin monimutkaisiksi ja sen vuoksi voisi ehkä vain todeta, että niiden tueksi tarvitaan monenlaista asiantuntijuutta (ml. tavallisten ihmisten "oman elämänsä asiantuntijuus" --Mikko Pohjola 17:24, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment) However, there are straightforward rules and practices that could be used to guide decision support, even if there are many possible solutions. This project will implement many of them in a coherent way in real-life decision situations and verify their applicability. ----#: . vähän epämääräisesti sanottu, ehkä pitäisi avata vähän mitä "rules and practices" tarkoittaa. --Mikko Pohjola 17:24, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

In THL, we have developed a web-workspace Opasnet (http://en.opasnet.org) that in a unique way enables the kind of work described above. ----#: . Itse asiassa yllä on kuvattu aika vähän sitä mitä työtä, miten ja kenen toimesta pitäisi tapahtua. --Mikko Pohjola 17:24, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment) We have also performed environmental health assessments in the workspace using probabilistic models that are open (and open source code) to the last detail. Most of the technical problems have been solved, so it is possible to start and perform new assessments as needed. However, we have also identified urgent development needs. ----#: . Jotenkin tuntuu, että tämän kappaleen jälkimmäisetkin lauseet ovat vähän irrallisia suhteessa edellä sanottuun, vaikka itsessään ihan järkeviä lauseita ovatkin. Vastaavasti myös seuraavat kolme kapaletta ovat muuten ihan hyviä, mutta en oikein näe mihin ne vastaavat (tiedän toki, mutta en kunnolla näe sitä ylläolevassa tekstissä. --Mikko Pohjola 17:24, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

First, the approach we are proposing would change many established practices in both decision making and expert work. There is understandably skepticism and inertia in adopting new practices. There is a need to test, implement and verify in practice the applicability of the approach.

Second, there are development needs in the interactional expertise, i.e. the practices and skills needed specifically in the science-policy interface ----#: . "...in making the multi-contributor interaction in the sciece-policy interface smooth and functional."? --Mikko Pohjola 17:24, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment). There is good theoretical understanding about how decision support should be organised, but more experience and practical guidance is needed. Research, practical exercises, and training is needed to learn interactional expertise.

Third, there are particular needs for decision support in the municipality level about environment and health issues. This was clearly seen in a survey organised in spring 2013 in Finnish municipalities. The topics mentioned related to e.g. city planning and healthiness of the living environment. The municipality authorities asked especially for clear guidance procedures, tools, and impact assessment help to support their work. (Hyvönen ja Ilonen 2013) .

Previous research

There is active research going on about bridging the gap between science and policy. For example, there are suggestions that the policy relevance of scientific assessments must be improved (Perrings et al., 2011) and that they should better reflect the reality of policy making and include local and non-scientific knowledge (Briggs and Knight 2012, Hulme et al., 2011) . However, the effectiveness also depends on the capability of a decision maker to utilise information as a part of decision making process. (Lankinen et al., 2012, Junnila, 2012) . Little attention has been paid to information use, and most related research has focussed on information production (Jones 2009)

A recent study has found that a major problem in the science-policy interface actually lies in the inability of the current political processes to utilise existing scientific knowledge in societal decision making (Pohjola, 2013) . This inbaility applies also to knowledge about citizens' and other stakeholders' values. Evidence-based decision making requires multifaceted, justifiable, practical information production and effective information use.

This observation has lead to the development of a pragmatic guidance for closer collaboration between researchers and societal decision making. The guidance is called Open Decision Making Practice and it was developed by National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) and Nordem Ltd in 2013. One notice in the work was to identify a double wall between research practices and decision making practices. When people suggest improvements to these practices, they have to break the wall of status quo that prevents people from seeing the benefits of changes on the other side. And when someone is able to break the wall around e.g. researchers and demonstrate improved ways to produce information, what do the researchers see? They see the other wall around decision makers, implying that the improved information will not be used anyway, thus discouraging changes in own behavour. So, both parts of the double wall must be removed simultaneously to make clear progress. ----#: . "kaksoiseinä" on ehkä ihan hyvä metafora, mutta itse pointin voinee sanoa selkeämmin ja lyhyemminkin. --Mikko Pohjola 18:08, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

One important part of the open decision making practice is a web-workspace to share knowledge and learn from others. In the web-workspace both scientific knowledge and policy alternatives and objectives are systematically represented. The workspace does not replace the actual decision making and its processes. Instead, it improves the processes of decision support by offering practices and tools ----#: . tai ehkä pikemminkin tarjoaa työkaluja, jotka edesauttavat uudenlaisten käytäntöjen syntymistä. --Mikko Pohjola 18:08, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment) to describe any decision-related information that is relevant in the eyes of a decision maker, stakeholder, or researcher. It does not attempt to replace current activities such as TV discussions, negotiations, or committee meetings, but to facilitate information use in them. A main advantage is that specific rules improving information (such as scientific criticism) can be applied within the workspace even if they cannot be applied in other policy forums.

The web-workspace in this project is called Opasnet (http://en.opasnet.org). It is open to be read and used, and it contains implementations of all methods described below in Table 1. ----#: . Edellä annettuja kommentteja mukaillen: Opasnet ja siinä olevat menetelmäimplementaatiot ovat varmasti hyvä vastaus, mutta kysymys johon ne vastaavat pitäisi olla niin selkeästi esitetty, että jopa Akatemian asiantuntija sen voi ymmärtää (siis rautalangasta väännettynä). --Mikko Pohjola 18:08, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment) It also contains several large environmental assessments such as those about health and ecological risks around mines, microbial risks in drinking water, or health risks of fine particles. Opasnet offers strong support for data management, modelling, and even original research. It consists of a wiki, a modelling software R, a database for small and large data sets, and a web tool developer. Version control and archiving functionality is seamlessly embedded and automatic. Sharing and borrowing assessments, data, and models is made easy.

The open decision making practice consists of guidance, practices, and tools facilitating production and use of relevant information for a decision. The practice focuses on the decision support part, although the whole chain of decision making from decision identification to decision support, actual making of the decision, implementation, and finally to outcomes of the decision are considered during the whole process. The practice encourages a decision maker to express the objectives of the decision and options considered, and this information is used to guide all work.

A large part of the work is to perform an impact assessment that covers all areas of interest and synthesises participation and contributions from anyone interested. The work is constantly evaluated and managed according to specific guidance about properties of good decision support. All this work and contributions are managed by facilitators, who are knowledgeable about the decision situation, research, and the rules of the practice.

In open decision making practice, the work is done following principles that lead to more open and reusable information products. This is done by utilising an open web-workspace for collecting and distributing information, by focussing on topics that are influenced by the decision or influencing the objectives (outcomes of interest), and by applying explicit rules about which statements or estimates to reject based on relevance and facts. The practice was developed for the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health in aim to improve environmental health assessments in Finnish municipalities, but it is generic and widely applicable. The practice has been documented in reports (Pohjola, 2013) (Pohjola ym., 2012) , method descriptions (Pohjola et al., 2013) , method testing (Sandström et al, in press) (Pohjola et al., 2012b) , websites , and technical documentation .

One major idea is to collaborate with others sharing similar objectives. Indeed, there are several grassroot activities in Finland about promoting the use of information in decision making. These include Open Knowledge Foundation Finland and Verkkodemokratiaseura (web democracy society), but there are many others. One especially relevant is Innovillage that promotes evidence-based practices among social and health care in Finland ----#: . Innokyläkin aktiivisesti pyrkii käytäntökehitykseen, jossa asiantuntijat ovat tiiviissä yhteistyössä itse toiminnan kanssa, joka on aika kaukana perinteisestä "evidence-based" -ajattelusta, jossa tunnetusti tärkeintä on pitää asiantuntijat (ja ratkaisut) mahdollisimman irrallaan käytännön tarpeista. Tämä ajatus on ehkä hyvä nostaa selkeästi esiin. --Mikko Pohjola 18:08, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment). Open decision making practice has been developed together with Innovillage, and they both share the idea of how evaluation and management is done. This close collaboration facilitates the borrowing of good practices between the health sector and decision making in municipalities and elsewhere.

A key idea in open decision making practice is to focus on information work, and support the management of that work at the same time. The work is organised in a way that it is easy to obtain the information that is necessary, and also to share the information each participant has. This approach is close to the management system enterprise architecture that looks at information, information practices, information systems, and ICT. Enterprise architecture is becoming mainstream in Finnish administration, and therefore there is a clear need for compatible practices that can be extended to new areas such as municipality decision making.

Open decision making practice is a synthesis of work performed in THL for several years. It is based on much larger research on different areas, from where we have screened, hand-picked and adjusted excellent ideas into a coherent system of practices and tools. There is no room to describe the underlying knowledge in detail. To our knowledge, this is the first time when these methods have been combined into a coherent whole and will be implemented in decision support in large, real-life decision situations.

Table 1. Properties needed in open decision making practice and rules or methods applied to achieve the properties.

Property strived for	Method to be used	Description	Reference
Participation and contributions
Anyone can participate in decision support.	An open wiki workspace in the internet. In this project, Opasnet is used.	Technically similar to Wikipedia that synthesises knowledge from a large group of self-organised contributors.	Jimbo Wales
Discussions converge to a resolution.	Pragma-dialectic argumentation rules.	The rules are applied systematically with contributions. They define how a statement is accepted or rejected based on defends or attacks by arguments.	Van Eemeren F. H. and Grootendorst R., 2004
Valuations (value judgements) are expressed and critically evaluated.	Quasi-realistic moral philosophy	Moral statements are ultimately based on expressed feelings of individuals. Once expressed, they can be evaluated with the same tools as factual beliefs or propositions.	(Simon Blackburn, 1998)
Preferences of several stakeholder groups need to be assessed.	Stakeholder valuation elicitation	Stakeholders are asked to rank different realisations of outcomes. A probability distribution is created based on the answers.	Roger Cooke ##REF, Villie Flari ##REF
Citizen feedback should be collected also in map-based format.	Soft GIS and other map-based user interfaces	With these tools citizens and other stakeholders can view results and give contributions in a location-dependent way.	##REF jokin PehmoGIS-julkaisu tai nettisivu
Criticism and uncertainties
Scientific reasoning (instead of e.g. loudest voice winning) is used.	The scientific method of criticism	Focus on falsifiable hypotheses. New hypotheses are treated as possibly plausible a priori. The main work is to try to falsify the hypotheses. (See also Discussion above.)	Karl Popper ##REF
Descriptions reflect uncertainties in a quantitative manner.	Systematic use of probabilities	Subjective (Bayesian) probabilities and approaches are applied. Uninformative priors are used if data is scarce.	Bernardo and Smith 2000
Estimates are used systematically even if there are no measurements.	The classical method of expert judgement	Experts produce probability distributions that can be weighted against expert performance.	Cooke et al, 1991. Experts in Uncertainty ##
Modelling
Decision situations are described in such a way that justifiable guidance can be given.	Decision theory and decision analysis	Decision analysis use probabilistic approaches and utilities to express decision options, impacts, uncertainties, and valuations.	Howard Raiffa, David Lindley, others.##REF
Seamless interfaces are used between oral discussions, written descriptions, and quantitative modelling.	Structured discussions, ovariables, and OpasnetUtils	A systematic information structure with standardised information objects is used. Further work in this part is needed (see Objectives).	Tuomisto and Pohjola 2007 ORA-raportti##, Rintala et al 2013
Evaluation and management of work
The contributions of self-organised stakeholders needs to be managed and synthesised.	Wisdom of crowds and mass collaboration	The work is chopped into bite-size pieces, people are promoted to act in an independent and decentralised way, and the contributions are synthesised into the structured information objects. Interactional expertise is used to facilitate the process.	James Curowiecki 200? ##REF, Don Tapscott, Anthony Williams ##REF
The work process must be followed and managed.	Properties of good assessment	The guidance consists of evaluation criteria for decision support work. These are used to evaluate the current and foreseeable progress, and directed towards the objectives of the work.	Pohjola ym 2013 ##REF Properties of good assessment
Open participatory processes must be organised while maintaining high scientific quality.	Interactional expertise	Specific management skills for the methods listed in this table are taught to moderators, who follow and manage the contributions of participants.	Collins & Evans (2007)
Work process management should follow national guidelines.	Enterprise architecture	The work processes are looked at from four perspectives: knowledge, practices, information systems, and information technology.	Ministry of Finance, 2011 ##REF VM:n ohje kokonaisarkkitehtuurista
Practice development should follow guidelines in the social and health sector.	Innovillage methodology	Innovillage has guidance about how to develop, implement, and evaluate innovations and useful practices. E.g. the co-creation and evaluation practices used in this project are from Innovillage.	www.innokyla.fi/kehittaminen

In conclusion, there are a wealth of new practices that help to improve the use of knowledge in societal decision making. All of these have been tested and implemented, but this project offers a unique, coherent combination of them that has not bee implemented anywhere in real life. Finland is an optimum country to test this approach, as there is political demand, there is high trust among people and to the societal institutions, and high eduation. These all increase the probability of getting good contributions in open processes and of reaching acceptance to the results.

However, there are also challenges. Only a small fraction of decision-making problems have been quantified and assessed since (i) uncertainty is often huge and challenging to quantify; (ii) sufficiently accurate and unbiased computational models may not be available for 'objective' evaluation; (iii) values play important role and any quantification scheme for them will be biased. In this project, we will implement methods to reduce all these problems by using subjective probabilities, expert elicitation, coarse models for documentation even when quantification fails, and explicit inclusion of values within the models (see Table 1 for more details). Also, the open decision making practice will make all this transparent and subject to criticism. ----#: . previous research ei ehkä ole oikea paikka "tässä projektissa tulemme..." -tyyppisille väitteille. --Mikko Pohjola 18:08, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Some issues will be computationally much easier to implement than others, and therefore decision support will be a compromise between the theoretical ideal and practical implementation. However, we have recently developed an approach that enables model descriptions with very coarse and very sophisticated manner. Thus, an assessment can use the same modelling approach irrespective of the complexity. This also makes it possible to dynamically increase details to a model when more data becomes available. The improvement of the dynamic approach is one key area of research in the project.

There are several incentives for decision-makers to use the open dynamic decision support ODDS society. Transparency in general is found important in Finland, and collecting feedback from larger stakeholder group gives an opportunity to anticipate public reactions before decisions are made. A main bottleneck is to gather critical masses to participate in the Finnish scale, but looking at many similar decisions in several municipalities at the same time decreases this problem. This will also increase the efficiency: laborious tasks are immediately used by larger groups, thus making it more motivating to accomplish them.

There is a rapidly increasing body of new tools for participation and transparency, in accordance with other current societal movements and open data. For example, fuzzy processes and rapidly developing Bayesian approaches provide tools to (i) take uncertaninty explicitly into account in the analysis and (ii) to improve the models gradually when new information & data becomes available. Especially for this reason there is a need for detailed research about these practices, their applicability, and coherence with other practices.

----#: . Ehkä samaa vikaa on vähän pitkin matkaa, mutta tuntuu, että mitä pidemmälle teksti etenee, sitä irrallisempia toisiaan seuraavat kappaleet ovat. Koko backgroundia pitäisi vähän miettiä sen suhteen 1) mistä on kyse ja miksi se on tärkeää, 2) mitä jo tiedetään/osataan/on olemassa, 3) mikä vielä puuttuu sekä 4) kuinka projekti siihen tarpeeseen vastaa ja sitten jäsentää sen mukaisesti (sijoittaen kohtaan 4 liittyvät asiat osioihin objectives ja materials and methods). Kaikki nämä elementit ovat tekstissä jo olemassa. --Mikko Pohjola 18:08, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Links to other research by the team

The project implements methods that have been developed by the research team in previous research projects about decision analysis, impact assessment, and decision support. Such projects include EU projects Beneris, Intarese, Heimtsa, and Hiwate (integrated environmental health assessment, 2005-2011) Tekes project Minera (environmental and health risks of mining, 2010-2013) and ministry-funded Tekaisu (environmental health assessments in municipalities, 2012-2014). The projects have developed a) methods, models and web tools for impact assessment and b) practices that support integration and use of scientific knowledge and value judgements.

• Verkkodemokratiaseura ym avoin demokratia
• Vesi ja terveys,
• Minera
• CONPAT

----#: . Innokylä, IVA. --Mikko Pohjola 18:08, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

In CONPAT (Aquatic contaminants - pathways, health risks and management) project funded by Academy of Finland the sources, behavior and fate of microbial and chemical contaminants are studied in adjacent with health and economical risk assessments. In TEKES-funded POLARIS project (2009-2012), sustainable water quality management and risk assessment was supported by studying the microbial transport coefficients in Finnish soil employed in artificial groundwater production.

Objectives

Research objectives

The ultimate objective is to improve the outcomes of societal decisions involving environmental and health issues by developing and promoting the open decision making practice, which consists of a) practical high-quality environmental information, b) systematic work practices, c) advanced impact assessment methods, and d) modern ICT technology to support societal decision making in general and in Finnish municipalities in particular.

So far, THL has improved all of the four areas remarkably, so that the ICT technology is readily available, most of the crucial impact assessment methods have been adopted, and the key practices have been described and pilot tested. There is also a wealth of environmental and health information available in the web-workspace Opasnet. However, there are still some critical research topics that need to be tackled before it is possible to implement the practices described above in a large scale. These objectives can be classified into four groups and presented as research questions. ----#: . Moni asia sanotaan/voidaan sanoa backgroundissa, toisto ei ehkä tarpeen. --Mikko Pohjola 20:06, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

• Methodological:
  • How can aspects from structured discussions be included in continuously updated assessment models during a policy process without breaking the structure and functionality of the model?
  • How can elicitations of stakeholder valuations be used in a coherent way with multiple stakeholder groups? How can the results be used systematically within probabilistic assessment models?
• Practice-oriented:
  • Which of the current societal decision-making practices are in conflict with the open decision making practice? How can these conflicts be resolved?
  • How to apply the methods of Innovillage within environmental health assessments?
• Communications-oriented:
  • What are the major information or resource deficiencies that prevent the use of open decision making practice in municipalities? How can they be overcome?
  • What are the practical needs of Finnish municipalities or national authorities related to environmental health assessments?
• Work-ecosystem-oriented:
  • How can an ecosystem be developed for societal decision support in such a way that everyone (decision makers, experts, stakeholders, and developers) can effectively participate and want to do it?
  • How should interactional expertise be applied in order to moderate the contributions and work within such an ecosystem?

Hypotheses

The research questions will be answered in the project by implementing case studies using the open decision making practice with municipalities and national authorities such as AVIs or ELY centres. First, the largest case study will be about implementing a set of impact assessment models about ecological and health effects of mining. The applicability of these models and the approach in general is studied in real environmental impact assessment (EIA) and environmental permit processes. Second, these models are generic environment and health impact models and they can and will be used also for other topics than mining, such as fine particle and CO₂ emissions from traffic and energy production, drinking water risks, and persistent pollutants in soil. Third, practices and models will be implemented and tested in several very small case studies or surveys with a narrow, specific question and only a small involvement from municipalities. These aim to provide useful guidance within hours to municipalities that have negligible or zero budget for research and development. ----#: . Tässä tulee jo (vasta?) vähän konkreettisemmin esiin mihin tosielämän asioihin hakemuksen idea liittyy/voi liittyä. Ehkä näitä sovellusaloja/-aiheita voisi selvemmin nostaa esiin jo abstraktissa ja johdannossa, niin niihin littyvät ajatuksetkin ehkä hahmottuisivat lukijalle paremmin. --Mikko Pohjola 20:06, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

The hypotheses of the work are the following:

• The open decision making practice can help participants to focus on the decision options, possible outcomes, and value judgements of outcomes, i.e. the information needs of a particular decision. This will reduce the "lamppost syndrome" among experts (a situation where the focus of work is determined based on the availability of data rather than actual policy need) and politics among decision makers (a situation where the focus is on authority, power, procedures, responsibilities, or negotiation tactics). ----#: . ehkä tämän asiantuntijat/päättäjät -ongelman voisi vain kirjoittaa suoraan ja aytimekkäästi auki? --Mikko Pohjola 20:06, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
• Practical guidance for including structured discussions by participants in the continuously updating models - based on Bayesian or other online-learning techniques - can be developed. This reduces the need for experts as mediators and thus improves the manageability of assessment processes. The inclusion of discussions can be done without causing large modelling risks such as crashes of the model, memory overflows or non-convergence of estimates.
• Uncertainties about facts can be systematically described based on probabilistic approaches and the contributions from experts and other participants and with the help of moderators. This will help integration of uncertain information from various sources with appropriate weights, and increase the acceptability of the assessment outcomes.
• The quality of decision support can be measured by constantly evaluating the content, applicability, and efficiency of the information production. This evaluation will improve - in a measurable way - the execution of work processes.
• Organisations participating in the case studies of the project will generally find the practices and models as an effective and feasible way to support evidence-based decision making. We also expect that the criticism presented does ruin the foundations of the open decision making practice but rather can be effectively used to improve it.
• Identification of critical communication needs and problems will improve the project communication and facilitate the recruitment of participants to case studies.
• The open decision making practice enables self-organised decision support processes that are independent of this research project. Ecosystems will emerge where municipality decision makers, experts, and citizens launch self-organised activities to support particular decisions of their own interest. This is an ultimate test for the applicability of the method.

----#: . Kysymykset ja hypoteesit on aika selkeästi laitettu. Sen sijaan, että niitä kovasti alkaisi hieromaan, kannattanee panostaa siihen että niitä edeltävä teksti valmistaa lukijan ymmärtämään kysymykset ja hypoteesit. --Mikko Pohjola 20:06, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

----#: . Eteenpäin lukiessani tuli mieleen, että tavoiteltavat tulokset pitää myös selkeästi ja konkreettisesti kuvata. Lopussa on sille oma kohtansa, mutta periaatteessa tämä on se paikka, jossa ne määritetään (eli tavoiteltavien tulosten tulee olla yhdenmukainen tässä sanotun kanssa ja yhteyden päämäärien ja hypoteesien sekä tulosten välillä tulee ilmeinen. --Mikko Pohjola 20:33, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Materials and methods

Research methods

----#: . - Contributions to international discussion on related topics? At least open data movement is strong internationally, and tools for participation and transparency are now being developed across the globe - more theoretical research into the foundations will be needed however, and the proposed case study will provide the basis for this(?) --Jouni 17:39, 19 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Figure 1. An example of a decision diagram, which represents a complex multi-decision, multi-stakeholder decision situation. The main parts and their relations are shown according to the open assessment method. D = decisions, C = causal nodes, O = outcomes of interest, S = stakeholders, V = valuations, i.e. preferences by the stakeholders about the outcomes.

The overall method to describe a complex decision situation is to use decision analysis (Lindley, Raiffa ##REF). It consists of a description of the decision and its options considered, a causal network to outcomes of interest, and value judgements (V) of the outcomes by the decision maker. However, typically decision analysis looks at a single decision by a single decision maker at a time ----#: . "...and involving actual decision makers in the analysis."? --Mikko Pohjola 20:29, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment). The approach is extended in this project to cover multiple decisions (D's) and decision makers. In addition, value judgements can be expressed by any stakeholder group (S_i) even if they are not in the position to decide. Thus, participants can also learn what other options would be chosen based on valuations present in the society. A key feature of the method is that all participants share the same causal network (C's), i.e. the description on how things are and how things affect each other. Valuations are expressed as ranks of preference and operated using probabilities (Cooke, 2007)

The causal network is described as a quantitative model. Different methods and model types (such as deterministic or statistical models) can be used in applicable situations, but the paradigm is based on the idea of a Bayesian network, where the issues are described using subjective probabilities, and the relations are described as conditional probabilities. Deterministic and other models can be embedded within the paradigm as necessary.

For example, in a current project we assessed the district heating system in Kuopio. The energy company has a decision to make about the amount of biofuel to use instead of peat. There are at least three major outcomes, namely the greenhouse gas emissions, the health impacts caused by fine particles, and cost to the company. Even with one decision maker, this is a complex issue. However, the situation is complicated by dwellers who may reduce district heating by burning more wood or installing heat pumps. These additional decisions will affect the three outcomes mentioned, but also additional outcomes: costs to the dwellers, greenhouse and fine particle emissions from small-scale wood burning, and additional electricity need to run heat pumps. Because decisions are interrelated, there is added value in learning how the situation looks like from each other's perspective. The open decision making practice and Opasnet web workspace guide stakeholders to such an assessment.

Figure 2. Framework for open decision making practice showing the relevant parts of decision making. The practice looks at and manages the whole chain of decision making from support to outcomes. The focus of new methods developed and tested in this project is mostly in the decision support.

The elicitation of the valuations by the city of Kuopio (that owns the energy company) is not a trivial task but is clearly manageable. It is about balancing cost, climate, and health outcomes by comparing different situations.

----#: . Hyvä esimerkki, mutta en tiedä selventääkö sen kuvaaminen tässä kohdassa asiaa paljonkaan. Ehkä voisi mainita tehdyn mallin lyhyemmin ja antaa linkin, jos kiinnostaa mennä katsomaan tarkemmin? --Mikko Pohjola 20:29, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

The key method is to describe causal dependencies (C's). One decision or situation will rule out some others, for example if biofuel is more expensive than the current fuel, inceasing biofuel in the power plant will rule out the low-cost outcomes. Some of these causal dependencies are well-known and restrictive (such as energy balances, or costs if prices are known), while some others are more fuzzy (such as impacts of increasing district heat price on the willingness of dwellers to install heat pumps in their homes).

The approach in this project is to start with a coarse description of all possible options and outcomes, and reject combinations that are implausible or valued to be inferior to the others. As the work progresses and more data and valuations become available, on the one hand the descriptions become more sophisticated, and on the other hand more combinations are rejected and the conclusions become more precise.

Because the modelling system conforms to internal consistence required by the probability theory, the apparatus can be used to identify inconsistencies in the inputs: if a stakeholder supports a decision option that will lead to outcomes disliked by her, there is a reason to start looking for explanations for the behaviour: there may be an error or omission in the model, the actor may be unaware of what is known about the case, or she may have a hidden agenda. In any case, there is an alert that directs actions towards increased shared understanding.

⇤--#: . Tähän lisää niistä varsinaisen kehityksen kohteista eli keskustelu-mallinnus-rajapinnasta, multistakeholder-metodista, käyttöönotto-ongelmien tunnistamisesta, ym. --Jouni 20:56, 22 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: attack)

----#: . Päätösanalyysi on vain yksi monista menetelmistä, jotka tässä tuodaan yhteen, ja jotka oikeastaan on kuvattu jo ylempänä taulukossa 1. Pitääkö kaikki talukon 1 menetelmät kuvata tässä vai viitataanko vain ko. taulukkoon (onko se muuten oikeassa paikassa?) ja kuvaillaan projektin toteutuksen (caset jne.) tiedonmuodostuksen periaatteita (avoin päätöksentekokäytäntö ?) yleisemmällä tasolla? --Mikko Pohjola 20:29, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Research material

Research material is obtained from the case studies from the participants (including the project researchers). It will be e.g. scientific literature, descriptions of objectives, minutes from public hearings, or web discussions. Any information in basically any format is uploaded, linked or in other way made available to people reading a page about a case study. All relevant information will be synthesised into a quantitative description (typically a probabilistic model). The material will be used to improve the decision support including quantitative models of that case. Subsequently, the material will be used to improve other similar decision processes and decision practices in general.

Materials management plan

The data will be stored publicly in Opasnet. In cases where the data cannot be published, it is stored either in an encrypted format or in a password-protected area. In rare cases if sensitive personal or other data is used, the rules of THL are obeyed in handling and storage. Daily backup copies are taken from the website. Practices developed will also be stored and published in Innovillage. Opasnet has a built-in version control and archiving functionality.

Because all material is available as open data, most of the typical hindrances are solved by default. In addition, WP2 aims to spread the word about existing data to promote further use. The material is published using CC-BY-SA license, which is in practice does not limit further use. However, the merit and ownership of the material stays with the contibutor. All articles, if possible, will be published in open access journals. In any case, the final drafts will be published in Opasnet.

Ethical issues

The project does not involve research on patients, and handling of sensitive data requiring ethical permissions is not anticipated. In any case, the ethical rules of THL will be obeyed.

Risk management

There is a common fear that open decision processes like this project will lead to an unmanageable flow of low-quality contributions, and the process will fail in chaos. Our experience in practice has been the opposite: the most difficult part of such a process is to get stakeholders (including researchers and decision makers) interested and involved. In this project, this risk is minimised by (i) applying ready-made models that can produce useful results quickly, (ii) by further developing these models more user-friendly based on feedback, and (iii) using the skills in WP2 to identify and solve critical hindrances of participation.

Another major risk is that the level and complexity of decision support aimed at is, after all, too high. However, this project carefully builds on a foundation with tested and validated methods that have been used in a large scale elsewhere. We have also paid a lot of attention to make sure that the methods used are not contradictory with but rather supporting each other. The risk is actually whether such decision support system is effective enough to be usable with current resources.

A third risk is the amount of interactional expertise needed to facilitate the work. We expect to learn a lot about training needs in this project, but we also anticipate that being an interactional expert is a demanding task that requires a lot of training. Therefore, in a typical decision process e.g. in a municipality, this expertise must come from outside. Thus, there is a need for teaching interactional expertise to a larger group who could be recruited to a decision processes. However, this larger training is out of scope of this project, and other funding will be applied for it from elsewhere.

Implementation and budget

Workpackage 1: Methodology development

• Leader: Jouni Tuomisto (adjunct professor)
• Personnel: Päivi Meriläinen (PhD): quantitative impact modelling, valuations

WP1 work is based on an existing system that can support most parts of decision support work, including modelling. However, there are three main tasks of further development. First, it develops practices to include structured stakeholder contributions in quantitative probabilistic models in a systematic way. This work is based on previous work on pragma-dialectics on discussion side and OpasnetUtils on modelling side (see Table 1.) We need to solve theoretical and technical questions about e.g. inclusion of novel Bayesian techniques. We also need to develop practices and guidance for the users to implement it. Modelling experts in WP4 will participate in this work.

Second, we need to implement methods to include valuations in impact models. This work is based on Cooke 2007, but new development is needed to apply the method to multi-stakeholder situations. Also, tools and guidance are needed to use the improved method in the web-workspace. Third, there is a need to update and build new modules for impact assessment. For example, mining exposure models, life-table models, and energy balance models have been developed in three different projects. These should and will be updated in such a way that both mining and energy models can feed their outputs to the life table model, and also mining model can feed into the energy model. This will be done by using standardised modeules and generic interfaces between e.g. exposure and health models.

Talousveden laadun ja terveysvaikutusten seuranta kuuluu myös kuntien ympäristö- ja terveysviranomaisille. Talousveden laadun valvonta keskittyy tällä hetkellä lopputuotteen laadun monitorointiin, mikä on aina liian myöhäistä haitallisten terveysvaikutusten ehkäisemiseksi. Kuntatasolla ei ole ollut talousveden laadun seurantaan tarjolla työkaluja, joilla voitaisiin ennakoida mahdollisten erikoistilanteiden aiheuttamia terveysvaikutuksia, tai suunnitella tulevia vesisektorin investointeja terveysvaikutuksia silmällä pitäen.

Maailman terveysjärjestö WHO on lanseerannut vesiturvallisuuden parantamisen työkaluksi konseptin talousveden turvallisuussuunnitelmasta (Water Safety Plan, WSP). Siinä pelkän lopputuotteen monitoroinnin sijasta tarkastellaan koko veden tuotanto- ja jakeluketjua veden laatua uhkaavien tekijöiden tunnistamiseksi ja poistamiseksi. Kvantitatiivinen mikrobiologinen riskinarviointi (QMRA) on jo liitetty osaksi WSP:tä eräissä maissa, kuten Alankomaissa. Vesiturvallisuutta uhkaavien tekijöiden entistä parempi tunnistaminen QMRA-prosessia hyödyntäen voidaan jatkossa nähdä mahdollisuutena vesivälitteisten terveysriskien ennaltaehkäisemiseksi myös vesilaitoksilla Suomessa. Sosiaali- ja terveysministeriö valmistelee lainsäädäntöä näiden käytäntöjen juurruttamiseksi Suomeen.

Vesiopas (http://fi.opasnet.org/fi/Vesiopas) on uusi THL:ssä kehitetty verkkopohjainen työkalu juomaveden mikrobiologiseen riskinarviointiin. Työkalu auttaa vesilaitoksia arvioimaan vedenjakeluun liittyviä terveysriskejä nopeasti ja muodostamaan tilannekuvan juomaveden laatua uhkaavista tekijöistä. Vesiopas perustuu matemaattiseen riskinarviointimalliin ja QMRA:han. Vesilaitosten henkilökunta, tutkijat sekä kunnalliset ja valtakunnalliset ympäristö- ja terveysviranomaiset voivat hyödyntää Vesiopasta talousvedenlaadun tarkkailussa sekä ennakoivassa riskinarvioinnissa. Lisäksi Vesiopasta voidaan hyödyntää tulevan WSP:n yhteydessä, kun halutaan laskea riskin todennäköisyyksiä erilaisille kontaminaatio- tai vikatilanteille vesilaitoksella.

Vesiopasta on toistaiseksi käytetty työkaluna tutkimushankkeissa ja myös tutkimusyhteistyönä tehdyissä tapaustutkimuksissa. Kuitenkaan se ei vielä ole lyönyt läpi kunnan tai vesilaitosten työntekijöiden omana arviointi- tai suunnittelutyökaluna. Tässä hankkeessa pureudutaan tarkemmin käyttöönoton esteisiin ja pyritään ratkomaan ne.

Workpackage 2: Communications and influencing

• Leader: Mervi Pitkänen
• Personnel: Kaarina Wilskman
• Main tasks:
  • To communicate about the project and attract new participants to case studies
  • To identify and solve communication problems
  • To manage stakeholder involvement and communication

WP2 will communicate about the project to the target group of municipality decision makers. The aim is to increase general awareness and interest but particularly find and recruit participants for small and large case studies. This is a challenging tasks, because especially the large case studies require participants interested in a specific topic from among decision makers, experts, and stakeholder groups. In small case studies with tool testing, the recruitment is targeted to identified groups that would benefit most from using such a tool. The skills of the THL Department of Communications and Influencing are therefore needed and used.

Feedback about the practices and tools will be systematically collected in the case studies, and this information will be used to guide further development in WP1. We will study user experience, usability, and need for the user in all tool and practice development. The communications work also promotes the development of a stable community of people interested in developing decision support in Finland. This work is done in collaboration with WP3 and WP4.

Workpackage 3: Integration of existing practices

• Leader: Pasi Pohjola (PhD): Innokylä
• Personnel: Tapani Kauppinen (PhD): IVA, SOVA, ...

WP3 utilizes the existing Innovillage environment for developing the decision making practices and local solutions developed specifically in the selected case studies. Innovillage is a national web-based collaborative developement environment for developing, implementing and evaluating methods in social care and health services in Finland. Currently Innovillage contains about 650 models and their local implementations of practices from various areas of social care and health care. The environment is used in national development programs, such as the National Development Programme for Social Welfare and Health Care, run by the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health (http://www.stm.fi/en/strategies_and_programmes/kaste). In WP3 Innovillage works as the environment where the decision-making practices of the case studies are developed and evaluated. Through the use of Innovillage, the outcomes of the research project are disseminated and spread for wider audience. As an open innovation environment, it enables other municipalities and decision makers to utilize the model developed in the project case studies.

• Main tasks:
  • Implement the methods of Innovillage in impact assessment
  • Apply the evaluation and management practices to selected case studies.
  • Spread the innovations of the projects through Innovillage.

----#: . Keskeinen tavoite: integroida avoin päätöksentekokäytäntö Innokylän ja toisaalta IVAn meneillään oleviin prosesseihin. Löytyykö yhteistä perustaa niin, että asioita voitaisiin kokonaan yhdistää, miten ajetaan tämä uusi yhteinen idea sisään nykyisiin asiakasryhmiin? --Jouni 21:15, 22 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Workpackage 4: Work ecosystems

• Leader: Sami Majaniemi (PhD)
• Personnel: Leo Lahti (PhD), Mikko Pohjola (PhD)
• Main tasks:
  • Develop a work ecosystem for societal decision support. The ecosystem is based on existing open-society activities such as Verkkodemokratiaseura, Sorvi, and Avoinministeriö.
  • Develop and implement practices for interactional expertise within the ecosystem.

----#: . Develop a work ecosystem for societal decision support. The ecosystem is based on existing open-society activities such as Verkkodemokratiaseura, Sorvi, and Avoinministeriö" Ilmeisesti tämä tarkoittaa sen miettimistä miten nämä palvelut voidaan linkittää osaksi kokonaisuutta, melko kevyesti? Jos siitä on hyötyä, voin kysyä Kansan muistin halukkuutta olla mukana listalla. Olen ko. yhdistyksen jäsen. Leon kommentteja.--Jouni 14:46, 21 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Eri ihmisiltä odotettavat työpanokset ja niiden suuruudet:

• Leo: Strateginen tuki ja kommentaattori Bayes-kehityksessä, jonka toteutuksen hoidamme pääasiassa WP1:ssä. Työpanos: 1 vk / vuosi
• Leo, Sami, Mikko: Yhteydet omien verkostojen kautta, yhteistyön ideointi ja edistäminen. Työpanos: 2 vk / vuosi / hlö
• Työpaketissa on n. 3 kk /vuosi palveluja, jotka näen siten kuten Mikko taisi mainitakin: resurssia pienempien palasten teettämiseen sitten kun konkreettisia asioita tulee vastaan.
  • Esimerkkejä teknisistä asioista voisi olla jonkin tietokantayhteyden rakentaminen sorviin/Opasnetiin kun esim. Ilmatieteen laitoksen jokin datamassa avautuu; tai jonkin Bayes-paketin (esim. JAGS) käyttöönotto ja soveltaminen johonkin uuteen mallityyppiin sillä ajatuksella, että kyseisen kaltaisia malleja aletaan soveltaa laajemmin.
  • Esimerkkejä verkostoitumisesta voisi olla Apps4Finland-kisaan osallistuminen, jos se suoraan tuottaa ratkaisua johonkin projektin ongelmaan (tai vastaavanlainen työ riippumatta kilpailusta).
  • Ongelmanahan tässä on, että nämä pitää pystyä perustelemaan hakemukseen eli keskiviikkoon mennessä pitää olla ainakin uskottavat perustelut ideoilla, mielellään itse ideoitakin.
  • Yksi mahdollisuus on myös se, että tämän työpaketin rahat merkitään palkkamomentille, jolloin niiden perusteleminen on helpompaa tutkijalle N.N. Mutta se vaikuttaa sitten yleiskustannusta suurentavasti ja siten Akatemian rahoitusosuuden valumista enemmän hallintoon; ei tosin ole ratkaiseva asia. Joka tapauksessa rahaa saa siirtää kustannuslajilta toiselle.

----#: . Olennaista tässä työpaketissa on integroida tätä työtä mahdollisimman hyvin Suomen avoimen demokratian hankkeisiin. Voidaanko joitakin asioita jopa yhdistää suuremmaksi kokonaisuudeksi? Tämä kuulostaa aika lailla käyttöönottotutkimukselta, joka ehkä menisi paremmin Tekesin rahoittamaksi. Mutta nyt ollaan hakemassa Akatelmialta, joten ideat syvemmästä tutkimusaiheesta tällä alueella ovat tervetulleita. --Jouni 21:15, 22 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Workpackage 5: Management of case studies

• Leader: Jouni Tuomisto (adjunct professor)
• Personnel:
  • Päivi Meriläinen (PhD), management of case studies
  • Hannu Komulainen (research professor): risks of mining and metals
  • Ilkka Miettinen (adjunct professor): risks and safety of drinking water
• Main tasks:
  • Build and execute impact assessments for case studies.
  • Manage the processes of the case studies together with other workpackages.
  • Offer training and support for decision makers and stakeholders

←--#: . Training of participants to assessment methods and interactional expertise. --Jouni 08:18, 23 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: defence)

Timetable

Table 2. Timeline of the project and tasks.

WP, task	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4
WP1
Task 1: Develop practice for including discussions in models	XXXXX
Task 2: Develop practice for eliciting stakeholder values	XXXXX	XXXXX
Task 3: Develop generic impact assessment models	XXXXX	XXXXX	XXXXX
WP2
Task 1: Name
Task 2: Name
WP3
Task 1: Name
Task 2: Name
WP4
Task 1: Name
Task 2: Name
WP5
Task 1: Develop large case studies (mining)	XXXXX
Task 2: Execute large case studies		XXXXX	XXXXX	XXXXX
Task 3: Develop and maintain small case studies	XXXXX	XXXXX	XXXXX	XXXXX
Task 4: Offer training and support for decision makers and other stakeholders	XXXXX	XXXXX	XXXXX	XXXXX

----#: . Budjetti tulee osaksi hakemusta, joten tämä on tässä tiedoksi mutta taulukko poistetaan lopullisesta tutkimussuunnitelmasta tilaa viemästä. --Jouni 17:20, 22 September 2013 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Budget

• Duration: four years 1.9.2014 - 31.8.2018
• Indirect personnel cost: 55 %
• Overhead: 61 %
• Effective working time: 100 %
• VAT included: No

Table 3. Project budget

	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	Total
Salaries
Postdoctoral researcher 3200 e/pmo (WP1+WP5)	4	10,5	10,5	10,5	7	13600
Assisting personnel 2700 e/pmo (WP2)	4	5,5	5,5	5,5	5,5	70200
Postdoctoral researcher 3200 e/pmo (WP3)	2	5,5	5,5	5,5	4	72000
Salaries, total	30000	66050	66050	66050	50050	278200
Indirect employee costs, total	16500	36328	36328	36328	27528	153010
Total overheads share	28365	62450	62450	62450	47322	263038
Other costs
Services	6000	15000	15000	15000	9000	60000
Travel expences	2000	2000	2000	2000	2000	10000
Other costs, total	8000	17000	17000	17000	11000	70000
Total costs	82865	181828	181828	181828	135900	764248
Funding plan
Own organisation	24860	54550	54550	54550	40770	229280
Funding contribution from other sources %	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00
Academy funding contribution €	58005	127278	127278	127278	95130	534968
Academy funding contribution %	70.00	70.00	70.00	70.00	70.00	70.00

• • justifications for the total cost estimate specified on the application, by type of expenditure (budget table with justifications). Costs that do not pass through the books of the site of the research shall not be included in total project costs.

Research environment

Merits of research team members

Jouni Tuomisto 20 % of working time spent on this project (from the THL budget)

Researcher Päivi Meriläinen, PhD, from the National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) has a key role in quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) development at THL. Päivi Meriläinen has 10-year experience on risk assessment and has been involved with several EU-funded projects on environmental health research (INTARESE, HiWATE, SecurEau) with special focus on drinking water risk assessment.

Mervi Pitkänen

Hannu Komulainen

Pasi Pohjola

Leo Lahti (D.Sc. (Tech.); B.Sc. (Pol. Sci.)) is a Academy of Finland postdoctoral research fellow affilited with University of Helsinki, Finland and Wageningen University, Netherlands. He is specialized in machine learning and data analysis, with applications in computational biology and open government data. The development of open source algorithmic tools for these topics has formed an integral part of his research. Lahti is the coordinator of the Finnish Open Science work group under the Open Knowledge Foundation Finland, and a main developer of the sorvi toolkit for Finnish open government data that was awarded the first prize in Apps4Finland competition 2011. His expertise in applied probabilistic analysis and data integration, and his active involvement in the domestic and international open government data community will be a valuable assett for the project.

Sami Majaniemi

• • names, tasks and salary costs (with justifications) of persons working within the project. If the names are not known, enter N.N. Also include an estimate of the PI’s working hours on the project.

Site of research

and any tangible support it offers the project, including available equipment

Key national and international collaboration

and distribution of work (“Partners” on the online application)

Other partners

(e.g. Strategic Centres for Science, Technology and Innovation), form of cooperation, description of how the project will benefit from the cooperation (“Partners” on the online application)

Use of international and national research infrastructure

description of how the project will benefit from it (“Infrastructures” on the online application)

Mobility

how the visits or work periods elsewhere contribute to research plan implementation.

Under “Mobility” on the online application, give a detailed description of possible mobility within the project: to and from Finland or between organisations in Finland. The description shall include information on the objectives and duration of the visits and on whether the visits have been agreed.

Training and careers

All researchers in the project are at least postdoctoral researcher, so doctoral training is not anticipated. However, there is a clear training need for all researchers, because they will apply assessment methods in their own respective areas but few of them are actually trained assessors. The same applies to interactional expertise, and facilitation skills must and will be trained within the project (see WP5).

Gender equality is an important thing and a real challenge in this project. This is because almost all of the activists in different self-organised open democracy organisations are male in Finland. Therefore, special attention will be paid to make sure that enough female participants are found to case studies from the municipalities.

Expected results

The near-term benefits will occur in local level. Therefore strong emphasis is given in active communication with the real decision makers and users in municipalities, as described in WP2. As a result, municipalities will be able to make more evidence-based decisions about e.g. urban planning or environmental permits.

The work will be done in Opasnet, so detailed information is being published as the work progresses. In addition, case study reports will be published, and several scientific articles are anticipated at least about the open decision making practice, the merging of discussions into models, applicability of the methods, and user reactions about the practices. Active communication with activist groups of open democracy, national organisations (such as Sitra and the Government Policy Analysis Unit) and general public is essential and will be given special attention.

The project develops knowledge practices that are applicable in both research and decision making and enable immediate and effective sharing and learning. It also enables modular development of larger and larger assessments that are internally coherent. This has three major benefits. First, scientific knowledge gets better used in the society. Second, immediate societal information needs are better transformed to research. Third, the use of large assessments hopefully change the way we think about research and practice. The related risks are described in the end of Materials and methods section.

A real scientific breakthrough would be a global model that is used as our target of work rather than the hundreds of thousands of scientific articles in thousands of journals. Although the internet has revolutionised the access to these separate pieces of data, they are still separate pieces. Global models would use a better information structure, namely something that links information objects in a way that mimics how the actual issues are linked in reality. This projects takes a few small steps towards such breakthrough by solving some structural, modelling, and practical issues.

Bibliography

Links to Opasnet tools and models mentioned in the application

• http://fi.opasnet.org/fi/Kohdekohtaisen_Minera-arvioinnin_esimerkkisivu
• http://fi.opasnet.org/fi/Pienhiukkasvaikutukset
• http://fi.opasnet.org/fi/Vesiopas
• http://fi.opasnet.org/fi/Terveysriskin_kuvaus
• http://en.opasnet.org/w/Energy_balance_in_Kuopio

• The detailed example of multidimensional decision space (sudoku) was radically shortened. The original story is archived.

See also

• Quasi-realism