DARM DA study exercise Group 1

This page is a knowledge crystal of subtype assessment. The page identifier is Op_en4970
Moderator:Anna Kokkonen (see all)
This page is a stub. You may improve it into a full page.
Upload data {{#opasnet_base_link:Op_en4970}}

Add a brief summary here.

Background

The 2009 flu pandemic was an outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 influenza virus, usually referred to as "swine flu". First described in April 2009, the influenza A(H1N1)v virus was a new virus subtype of influenza affecting humans, which contains segments of genes from pig, bird and human influenza viruses in a combination that had never been observed before anywhere in the world. A(H1N1)v virus is the result of a combination of two swine influenza viruses that contained genes of avian and human origin (ECDPC 2011). Unlike most strains of influenza, H1N1 does not disproportionately infect adults older than 60 years; this was an unusual and characteristic feature of the H1N1 pandemic (Writing Committee of the WHO 2010). The outbreak began in the state of Veracruz, Mexico, with evidence that there had been an ongoing epidemic for months before it was officially recognized as such (McNeil 2009). The Mexican government closed most of Mexico City's public and private facilities in an attempt to contain the spread of the virus; however, it continued to spread globally, and clinics in some areas were overwhelmed by infected people. In June, the World Health Organization (WHO) and US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) stopped counting cases and declared the outbreak a pandemic (WHO/Chan 2009). The H1N1 flu virus is typically contracted by person to person transmission through respiratory droplets (CDCP 2009). Symptoms usually last 4–6 days (Bronze 2009). The pandemic began to taper off in November 2009 (McKay 2009), and by May 2010, the number of cases was in steep decline (WHO 2010). On 10 August 2010, the Director-General of the World Health Organization, Margaret Chan, announced the end of the H1N1 pandemic (Helsingin Sanomat 2010). According to the WHO statistics from July 2010, the virus had killed more than 18,000 people since it appeared in April 2009 (redOrbit 2010), approximately 4% of the 250,000 to 500,000 annual influenza deaths (WHO 2009). The H1N1 influenza virus has moved into the post-pandemic period. However, localized outbreaks of various magnitudes are likely to continue. Influenza outbreaks, including those primarily caused by the H1N1 virus, show an intensity similar to that seen during seasonal epidemics. Recently published studies indicate that 20–40% of populations in some areas have been infected by the H1N1 virus and thus have some level of protective immunity. Many countries report good vaccination coverage, especially in high-risk groups, and this coverage further increases community-wide immunity (WHO 2010b).

Scope

Purpose

   * Purpose defines the specific information need of the decision-making and the research question that is asked.

• purpose of the DA study
• question(s) addressed in the study
• the relation of the study to the overall swine flu case
• roles of different actors related to the study
• expected and possible impacts of the study
• intended (even if imaginary) use of the study

Boundaries

   * Boundaries define which parts of the reality are taken into the assessment and which are excluded within 
     spatial, temporal and other dimensions.

• spatial and temporal boundaries the study

Scenarios

   * Scenarios define particular conditions that are of interest irrespective whether they describe 
     reality or not (e.g. what-if scenarios).

Intended users

   * Intended users are those for whom the assessment is made.

Participants

   * Participants are those who may participate in the making of the assessment. 
     The minimum group of people for a successful assessment is always described. 
     If some groups must be excluded, this must be explicitly motivated.relevant actors related to the study

Definition

Upload a causal diagram and change the right name here.

Add a legend for you diagram.

Decision variables

   * Decision variables: decisions that are considered.

Indicators

   * Indicators: outcome variables of interest.

Value variables

   * Value variables: value judgements (usually about indicators).

Other variables

   * Other variables: any variables that link to the causal network and are within the boundaries of the assessment.

Analyses

   * Analyses: statistical and other analyses that contain two or more variables, e.g. optimizing.

Indices

   * Indices: lists of particular locations along spatial, temporal, or other dimensions. 

Result

   * Results of indicators and assessment-specific analyses. 

Conclusions

   * Conclusions are based on the results, given the scope.