Decision analysis and risk management

LIVE FEED FROM LECTURES

Decision analysis and risk management (DARM) is a course taught in the | University of Eastern Finland (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.

NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

Aims of the course

• To give a good overview of modern assessment methods by;
  • utilizing modern web-workspaces for learning, while;
  • avoiding overlaps with other courses in the ToxEn MSc program,

In the course:

The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between societal decision-making and risk assessment, and the role of risk management in a broader societal context. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of risk assessment, and know how to build an assessment based on the requirements of risk management.     

Course details

• Name: Decision analysis and risk management          
• Abbreviation: DARM
• ECTS-credits: 6
• Home page of the course: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm
• Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment
• Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
• Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): Yes

Contacts

• Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL)          
• Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen     
• Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio     
• Contact Persons email: mikko.pohjola(at)thl.fi     
• Registration for the Course: Wossikka     

Teaching / Learning Methods

• Lectures and discussions 60 h
• Calculation exercises 9 h
• Independent assessment study
  • Decision analysis study (group work) 50 h
  • Risk management study (individual work) 40 h
• Web-Based Learning 30 %

Lectures

See the Content and schedule table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is approximately three hours.

Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information. Even more can be found at: Decision analysis and risk management - background information.

Case study exercise

For the case study description and instructions, see the case study exercise page

Note! Self-organised group work requires on-line computers.

Evaluation

Scale: 0 (Fail) – 5 (Excellent)

Evaluation is based on:

• Case study exercise (2/3)
• Completion of calculation exercises (1/3)
• Active participation during lectures will be taken into account while deciding final grades

For non-ToxEn students it is also possible to accomplish only certain parts of the course: lectures (3 ECTS), case study exercise part 1 (2 ECTS), or case study exercise part 2 (1 ECTS). Partial accomplishments will be graded only on a fail/pass scale.

Content and schedule

Schedule and contents of the course.

• Each row is a three-hour block of lectures, exercises, discussions, or organised group work.
• Changes in content are likely, but the dates and locations presented here are more or less fixed.
• Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.

Date	Time	Lecturer	Lecture room	Topics	Material
28.2.	10-13	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	S22	Introduction to the course introduction to decision analysis: video , slides introduction to case study exercise and course evaluation: video, slides Introduction to the swine flu story: video, slides
3.3.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	S31	Introduction to risk management Conventional perspectives to RM: video, slides Open risk management: video, slides	Framework for environmental health risk management An introduction to the IRGC risk governance framework Risk governance deficits - Policy brief State-of-the-art in environmental health assessment (manuscript)
3.3.	13-16	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	S23	Swine flu story: risks and their management: video, slides independent exploration Beginning of the pandemic preparedness in Finland and elsewhere mini-presentations and discussion summary
4.3.	9-12	Mikko, Marko	MC9	Introduction to using Opasnet Introduction to Opasnet Demonstration of structure, content and functionalities Exercises user accounts DA study plan page RM report page browsing and searching commenting and discussing	Category:DARM exercise#Introduction to working in Opasnet Opasnet Help:Contents
4.3.	13-16	Jouni, Marko	S24	Introduction to probability theory Subjective probability Practical exercise Bayesian rule and Bayesian networks Importance of exhaustiveness (coverage)	Dennis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics
8.3.	9-12	Jouni	S22	Decision analysis (continued). Swine flu case as a decision problem: what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case? Purpose of assessment: Why it is done Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees Measures of outcome: Utility, DALY, QALY, WTP
9.3.	9-12	Jouni	S22	Decision analysis (continued).
10.3.	9-12	Marko	S24	Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation What is modeling or model? Why would you like to use Monte Carlo? Background of the MC method Monte Carlo, simulation and Monte Carlo simulation Practical implementation of MC Programs Defining the probability functions Reading the results Monte Carlo vs. Bayes and Bootstrapping Swine flu story (autumn - winter 2009): First deaths of swine flu (threat was real). Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers. Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought.
11.3.	8-11	Marko	MC9	Calculation exercise. Case: Mortality due to PM in Kuopio: Exposure-response function Exposure concentration Background mortality
16.3.	9-12	Jouni	S22	Bayesian updating Probability theory.ppt
17.3.	9-12	Jouni	MC4	Calculation exercise of Bayes
18.3.	13-16	Jouni	S24	Overall view of different models: Producing result from rationale. Overall view of models.ppt Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates. Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations. Other relations (neural networks). First drafts of DA study plans. Brief presentations by students of and discussions about the first DA study plan drafts.
21.3.	9-12	Jouni, Marko, Mikko	S24	Decision making under uncertainty Evaluating an assessment.ppt Uncertainty and it's impact (1h Jouni) Sensitivity analysis (1h Marko) Value of information (1h Marko) Acceptability Analysis of model inputs, outputs, and structure Swine flu story: Use of adjuvants. How similar is the same? Can/Should be aim at zero risk? Benefit-risk comparisons.
22.3.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	S24	Decision-making under uncertainty (continued). Value of information, Value of information analysis. Assessment performance? Quality of evidence? Impacts of uncertainty in decision-making. Hindsight. (Mikko)
25.3.	9-12	Marko	S24, MC9	VOI calculation exercise. Case 1: Weather example: Two cities, daily temperature data for 1 year Question: what is the VOI to know the daily temperature vs. average temperature Calculations done in excel Case 2: Risk model: calculation of VOI by hand calculation of expected value of perfect X information using Jouni's VOI function
29.3.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko	S4069	Full drafts of DA study plans. Presentations by students of and discussions about study plans. Apply the model to assess the case based on your own research plan. Defend your plan in plenary. Are plans executable? What outputs are expected? Do they serve the intended needs? What should the model do? How should the results be used? The core of a model can go through technical check: does it work? The assessment should link to the outside world: does it produce useful info, is it convincing to users?
30.3.	9-12	Mikko, Jouni	S24	Risk management (theory). What is managed, who is responsible, what is included? Traditional paradigm. Look from decision-maker's point of view: needs, communication, and assessment all included. What is the role of decision analysis and modeling in RM? Openness: RA, RM, RC are not totally separate. Performance: Context about what we actually aim to achieve. How do we know if we succeeded? Developing risk management options. Development of risk assessment questions. Science-policy interface. Why it does not exist. Opasnet and other web-based decision support systems.
31.3.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko	S23	Trialogue, collective learning Shared understanding.ppt Justified true belief and its problems Inference rules: how do we know what we know? Shared information vs. private information Actions by a group based on shared information Shared belief systems Risk assessment as a collaborative project of information production. Swine flu story: Secret connections to drug industry? Narcolepsy.
1.4.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko	MC9	Inference rules. Scientific method as open discussion. Falsification. Do we need pre-peer-review?
7.4.	13-16	Mikko	S4069	Discussion: Lectures of concepts Pragma-dialectics, argumentation theory. Parts of Argumentation. Structuring of discussions in practice and theory Ready-made texts: discussions and organisation Homework: evaluate relevance - validity of arguments. Discuss in groups the next day. Build a structured discussion out of this in groups. Possibly utilise group writing tools? Swine flu story (autumn 2010): Vaccination campaign halted. THL remains silent about possible risks. Narcolepsy analysis. Impacts of openness. How methods learned should be applied now? Why openness is needed?
8.4.	9-12	Mikko	S22	Swine flu story (January 2011): Publishing of narcolepsy results and apologies. Searching for the guilty.
11.4.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko	S24	Final seminar: Presentations (exercise parts one and two), discussions, and summary of perspectives to the case.
12.4.	8-11	Jouni, Mikko	S24	Final seminar (cont'd). Wrap-up and course feedback.

Help and guidance

Topic	Contact
General arrangements	User:Jouni, User:Mikko Pohjola
Case study exercises: content	User:Jouni
Case study exercises: technical	User:Teemu R
Calculation exercises	User:Marko

Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.

See also

Links to additional RM materials

• IRGC risk governance framework
• Risk governance deficits - Analysis and illustration
• Risk assessment and risk management in regulatory decision making
• International Risk Governance Council
• The National Academies Press (publisher of e.g. "red book", "orange book", and "silver book")

General information sources on AH1N1 influenza (Swine flu)

• Swine flu in Finland, page maintained by National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) (English)
• Swine flu in Finland, page maintained by National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) (Finnish)
• European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC),2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic
• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCP), USA, information page on Swine flue
• Evolution of a pandemic, World Health Organization (WHO), 2009 (Report)
• WHO Pandemic page
• European Medicines Agency (EMA) information page on Swine flu
• EMA report on narcolepsy and possible association with Pandemrix vaccination

Links to information on specific topics

(current headings intended as first guidance, can be modified as seen reasonable)

Beginning and expansion of the global H1N1 Pandemic

• [1],[2]

Preparation, decision and promotion of H1N1 vaccination in Finland

• [3],[4],[5],[6],[7],[8],[9],[10]],[11]

Campaigning against H1N1 vaccination in Finland

• [12],[13]

The development of H1N1 influenza in Finland

• [14],[15],[16],[17]

Implementation of the vaccination campaign in Finland

• [18],[19],[20],[21],[22]

Suspected connections between THL and the producer Pandemrix vaccine (GlaxoSmithKline)

• [23],[24],[25],[26]

Pandemrix vaccine - composition, testing, alternatives etc.

• [27],[28],[29],[30]

Emergence of narcolepsy cases in Finland and elsewhere

• [31]

Suspected connections between Pandemrix vaccinations and narcolepsy

• [32],[33]

Halting of vaccination campaign

• THL,[34]

THL narcolepsy study, results, and publication

• [35]

Searching for the guilty

• [36],[37],[38]

EMA statement on suspected connection between Pandemrix and narcolepsy

• [39]

Reoccurence of swine flu in Finland and elsewhere

• [40],[41],[42]

Background information about other Decision analysis and risk management study programs in Europe and in USA is provided here: Decision analysis and risk management - background information

NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

Keywords

Risk assessment. Decision analysis. Bayesian theory. Open assessment. Risk management. Societal decision making.     

Related files

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