Decision analysis and risk management

Decision analysis and risk management is a university course [1] for Master's Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.

Scope

What is such a good course content about decision analysis and risk management that

• it gives a good overview of modern assessment methods,
• is not overlapping with other courses in the MSc program,
• utilises modern web workspaces for learning,

Result

Name

Decision analysis and risk management          

ECTS-credits

6

Abbreviation

DARM     

Content

Schedule and contents of the course.
Changes are likely especially in the content, but the dates presented here are more or less fixed.

Date	Hours	Lecturer	Theory lectures and exercises	Case study discussions and exercises
28.2. AM (10-13)	3	Jouni, Mikko	Practical introduction to course. Objectives, aims, expectations. Content and teaching/study methods.	Introduction to the case study and exercises swine flu vaccination campaign in Finland: effects and side effects? group work: decision analysis study plan individual work: reflections on risk management options and actions
3.3. AM, PM	6	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	Introduction to Risk management (theory). What is managed, who is responsible, what is included? Traditional paradigm. Look from decision-maker's point of view: needs, communication, and assessment all included. Openness: RA, RM, RC are not totally separate. Performance: Context about what we actually aim to achieve. How do we know if we succeeded? Developing risk management options. Development of risk assessment questions. Science-policy interface. Why it does not exist.	Beginning of the swine flu story: How the swine flu problem emerged (spring 2009) and spread in the world.
4.3. AM, PM	6	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	Opasnet training reading and browsing modes of contribution user accounts / logging in basic editing commenting and discussing content	Swine flu story (summer 2009): Preparedness in Finland and internationally. Vaccination campaigns, counter-campaigns. Should we launch a vaccination campaign? Should I take vaccination? Should I not take vaccination? Exercise part one begins: make a decision analysis study plan to find out good policies in this case. Which models to use, what to assess?
8.3. AM	3	Jouni	Decision analysis: introduction Purpose of assessment: Why it is done Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees Subjective probabilities Practical exercise Bayesian rule and Bayesian networks Denis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics
9.3. AM or PM	3	Jouni	Decision analysis (continued).	Swine flu case as a decision problem: what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case?
10.3. AM or PM	3	Jouni	Bayesian updating	Swine flu story (autumn - winter 2009): First deaths of swine flu (threat was real). Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers. Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought.
11.3. AM	3	Jouni	Calculation exercise of Bayes
16.3. AM	3	Marko	Monte Carlo modeling
17.3. PM	3	Marko	Calculation exercise. Connections to use of knowledge.
18.3. PM	3	Jouni	Overall view of different models: Producing result from rationale.	First drafts of DA study plans. Brief presentations of and discussions about DA study plan drafts.
21.3. AM	3	Jouni	Decision making under uncertainty Assessment performance? Quality of evidence? Impacts of uncertainty in decision-making. Hindsight. Use of adjuvants. How similar is the same? Can/Should be aim at zero risk? Benefit-risk comparisons. Acceptability Value of information Analysis of model inputs, outputs, and structure
22.3. AM or PM	3	Jouni, Marko	Decision-making under uncertainty (continued). Value of information.
25.3. AM or PM	3	Marko	VOI calculation exercise.
29.3. AM or PM	3	Jouni, Mikko		Full drafts of DA study plans. Presentations of and discussions about study plans. Apply the model to assess the case based on your own research plan. Defend your plan in plenary. Are plans executable? What outputs are expected? Do they serve the intended needs? What should the model do? How should the results be used? The core of a model can go through technical check: does it work? The assessment should link to the outside world: does it produce useful info, is it convincing to users?
30.3. AM or PM	3	Mikko	Trialogue, collective learning Justified true belief and its problems Inference rules: how do we know what we know? Shared information vs. private information Actions by a group based on shared information Shared belief systems Risk assessment as a collaborative project of information production.	Swine flu story: Secret connections to drug industry? Narcolepsy. Exercise part two begins: Risk management actions and options.
31.3. AM or PM	3	Jouni, Mikko	Inference rules. Scientific method as open discussion. Falsification. Do we need pre-peer-review? Opasnet and other web tools for risk assessment.
1.4. AM or PM	3	Jouni, Mikko	How methods learned should be applied now? Why openness is needed?	Swine flu story (autumn 2010): Vaccination campaign halted. THL remains silent about possible risks. Narcolepsy analysis. Impacts of openness
7.4. PM	3	Jouni, Mikko	Discussion: Lectures of concepts Pragma-dialectics, argumentation theory. Parts of argumentation. Structuring of discussions in practice and theory Ready-made texts: discussions and organisation Homework: evaluate relevance - validity of arguments. Discuss in groups the next day. Build a structured discussion out of this in groups. Possibly utilise group writing tools?	Swine flu story (January 2011): Publishing of narcolepsy results and apologies. Searching for the guilty.
8.4. AM or PM	3	Jouni, Mikko
11.4. AM	3	Jouni, Mikko
12.4. AM	3	Jouni, Mikko	Wrap-up and course feedback.	Final seminar: Presentations (exercise parts one and two), discussions, and summary of perspectives to the case.
Teaching	69		Includes lectures, discussions, and calculation exercises.
Group work, individual work	100
Total hours	169

For slightly more detailed descriptions, see D↷

Learning outcomes

The student will learn about the fundaments of decision analysis; and the connections between societal decision-making and risk assessment. He is able to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of risk assessment. He also knows how to build an assessment based on the requirements of risk management.     

Learning material

Online course readings in Opasnet: http://en.opasnet.org

Degree Programme(s)

ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment     

Implementation

Time

Spring 2011     

Teaching / Learning Methods

• Lectures 36 h
• Tutorial 0 h
• One-to-One Teaching 0 h
• Group Work 30 h
• Independent Study 96 h
• Web-Based Learning 30 %

Additional Information on Teaching / Learning Methods

Group work is in computer class.     

Teaching Languages

English

Additional Information on Languages

Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja)

YES

ASSESSMENT

Assessment is Based on

• Written Examination
• Project

Additional Information

The project will be a practical participation in a risk assessment in Opasnet.          

Assessment

0 (Fail) – 5 (Excellent)

Additional Information

     

Prerequisites

     

Contacts

Organising Departments

Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare)          

Course Director

Jukka Juutilainen     

Teachers

Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio     

Contact Persons

mikko.pohjola(at)thl.fi     

Registration for the Course

Wossikka     

Further information

Keywords

Risk assessment, decision analysis, Bayesian theory, open assessment, risk management, societal decision making.     

Further Information

Rationale

Background information from other available Risk assessment study programs are provided here: Decision analysis and risk management - background information

Other relevant courses than may have supporting, similar, or overlapping content.

• Environmental Health for International Students, 5 op
• Toxicological and Environmental Risk Assessment and Risk Communication, 3 op
• Advanced Toxicological Risk Assessment, 9 op Note! Group meetings 24.02.11 to 10.00-12.00, 17.03.11 to 13.00-15.00
• Decision analysis and risk management, 6 op This course!
• Ecotoxicology and Risk Assessment, 4 op
• Environmental health risk assessment, 4 op
• The course Ympäristöterveys is openly available under Aducate.

See also discussions about the course content. D↷

See also

• Course contents in UEF website
• Ympäristöterveys-kurssi Avoimessa yliopistossa (Environmental health course in the Open University; in Finnish)
  • Course material (in Finnish)
• Monimediainen oppimisympäristö ympäristöterveydestä
• Keeney (2006): Decision Science programs in the USA

Courses and course material on different topics related to risk assessment, decision analysis, and risk management.

Statistics list of links to some methods of descriptive statistics list of links to many methods inferential statistics fairly thorough description of sensitivity analysis thorough mathematical description of uncertainty propagation and covariance matrices; nothing about Monte Carlo how to integrate with Monte Carlo; not necessary in risk assessment a short description of training in subjective probabilities Frequency probability Bayesian probability Principle of maximum entropy Exposure only a stub EPA Exposure factors program interesting for both teaching and opasnet Base some basic concepts of exposure assessment short description of basic concepts and examples of biomarkers in exposure assessment a short description of exposure modelling with indoor and outdoor air as examples official ISEA/IPCS exposure glossary -> put to opasnet glossary total exposure assessment by Paul Lioy (1990) EPA exposure factors handbook: chapter on uncertainty and variability Toxicology general terms and concepts of toxicology a stub with useful links about toxicology measures of toxic pollutant concentrations: short description about NOEC and ECx mathematics of probit model; advanced material the carcinogenic potency database: learn more about this!

Epidemiology and public health good description of basic concepts of epidemiology a description but mostly about history and other trivia (trivia from RA point of view) Risk characterisation a good description of risk aversion with math required Risk management something about security risk management; not useful Risk and impact assessment overview of RA in different fields a long description of relevant concepts of risk management ISO/IEC guide 73:2009 about risk assessment vocabulary a good description of basic concepts of risk only a list of software; the software themselves may be interesting but haven't checked only a placeholder of hazard identification a brief description of HIA but lots of links a short description of a new standard ISO 31000 short description of PRA with software links EPA risk assessment website: learn more about it! Object oriented quality management: interesting idea of Statistics Netherlands; implementation unclear

Decision analysis and economy description of concept of cost overrun (economy) strategic misinterpretation (underestimation) of budget; an interesting detail related to economy Strategic misrepresentation in budgeting Decision theory in Wikipedia Decision theory in Opasnet Prospect theory in Wikipedia Open assessment a general lecture about the utility of open assessment presentation file related to the lecture background information about open assessments background about variables background about mass collaboration evaluating assessment performance Miscellaneous very brief description of EU-OSHA Institute of Risk Management - gives RA education? this is about education assessment and learning philosophy. not very relevant MIT Open CourseWare

Related further education courses

Possible further education course on the topics of this course to be held under the ERACedu risk analysis training program are e.g.:

1. "Mini-DARM" (5.-6.5.2011?)
   • a case-study exercise-driven introduction to the fundamentals of decision analysis and risk management
2. Decision making under uncertainty (19.20.5.2011?)
   • decision modeling and analysis
3. Discussion in decision making: methods and tools (8.-9.9.2011?)
   • How to manage effective citizen hearings?
4. Collective learning (29.-30.9.2011?)
   • Participatory assessment and modeling

Related files

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