Decision analysis and risk management

Decision analysis and risk management is a university course for Master of Science students in Environmental health risk assessment.

Background information from other available Risk assessment study programs are provided here: Decision analysis and risk management - background information

Tasks based on the discussions with Jukka Juutilainen, 15.8.2010.

TODO: {{#todo:Update the short course description and give that to Susanna who puts it into Oodi. DL 1.9.2010.|Jouni Tuomisto|}}

TODO: {{#todo:List related courses in ToxEn and find out the course contents. Some material is in Moodle, learn to use that. Try and adjust the contents of this course to match the other courses without hampering the idea of open assessment. The course Ympäristöterveys is openly available under Avoin yliopisto (nowadays Aducate?). DL: 1.11.2010|Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio|}}

TODO: {{#todo:Develop the course contents and ask for lecturers. DL: 15.11.2010.|Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio|}}

TODO: {{#todo:Develop the lecture contents for those lectures that you give yourself. DL: 1.2.2011? (When is the course exactly?)|Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio|}}

Definition

Statistics

• list of links to some methods of descriptive statistics
• list of links to many methods inferential statistics
• fairly thorough description of sensitivity analysis
• thorough mathematical description of uncertainty propagation and covariance matrices; nothing about Monte Carlo
• how to integrate with Monte Carlo; not necessary in risk assessment
• a short description of training in subjective probabilities
• Frequency probability
• Bayesian probability
• Principle of maximum entropy

Exposure

• only a stub
• EPA Exposure factors program interesting for both teaching and opasnet Base
• some basic concepts of exposure assessment
• short description of basic concepts and examples of biomarkers in exposure assessment
• a short description of exposure modelling with indoor and outdoor air as examples
• official ISEA/IPCS exposure glossary -> put to opasnet glossary
• total exposure assessment by Paul Lioy (1990)
• EPA exposure factors handbook: chapter on uncertainty and variability

Toxicology

• general terms and concepts of toxicology
• a stub with useful links about toxicology
• measures of toxic pollutant concentrations: short description about NOEC and ECx
• mathematics of probit model; advanced material
• the carcinogenic potency database: learn more about this!

Epidemiology and public health

• good description of basic concepts of epidemiology
• a description but mostly about history and other trivia (trivia from RA point of view)

Risk characterisation

• a good description of risk aversion with math required

Risk management

• something about security risk management; not useful

Risk and impact assessment

• overview of RA in different fields
• a long description of relevant concepts of risk management
• ISO/IEC guide 73:2009 about risk assessment vocabulary
• a good description of basic concepts of risk
• only a list of software; the software themselves may be interesting but haven't checked
• only a placeholder of hazard identification
• a brief description of HIA but lots of links
• a short description of a new standard ISO 31000
• short description of PRA with software links
• EPA risk assessment website: learn more about it!
• Object oriented quality management: interesting idea of Statistics Netherlands; implementation unclear

Decision analysis and economy

• description of concept of cost overrun (economy)
• strategic misinterpretation (underestimation) of budget; an interesting detail related to economy
• Strategic misrepresentation in budgeting
• Decision theory in Wikipedia
• Decision theory in Opasnet
• Prospect theory in Wikipedia

Open assessment

• a general lecture about the utility of open assessment
  • presentation file related to the lecture
• background information about open assessments
• background about variables
• background about mass collaboration
• evaluating assessment performance

Miscellaneous

• very brief description of EU-OSHA
• Institute of Risk Management - gives RA education?
• this is about education assessment and learning philosophy. not very relevant
• MIT Open CourseWare

Result

Name

Decision analysis and risk management          

ECTS-credits

6

Abbreviation

DARM     

CONTENT

Date	Date	Content	Jouni	Mikko	Marko	Juha
2011-02-21	Mon	Lectures, part 1				Video?
2011-02-22	Tue	Lectures, part 1				Video?
2011-02-23	Wed	Lectures, part 1				Video?
2011-02-24	Thu	Lectures, part 1				Video?
2011-02-25	Fri	Lectures, part 1				Video?
2011-02-28	Mon	Lectures, part 1				Video?
2011-03-01	Tue	Lectures, part 1				Video?
2011-03-02	Wed	Lectures, part 1				Video?
2011-03-03	Thu	Instructions for projects				Video?
2011-03-04	Fri	Instructions for projects				Video?
2011-03-07	Mon	Project work (home, online)		Away
2011-03-08	Tue	Project work (home, online)		Away
2011-03-09	Wed	Project work (home, online)		Away
2011-03-10	Thu	Project work (home, online)		Away
2011-03-11	Fri	Project work (home, online)		Away
2011-03-14	Mon	Project work (home, online)			Marko in Kuopio?
2011-03-15	Tue	Project work (home, online)		Away	Marko in Kuopio?
2011-03-16	Wed	Project work (home, online)		Away	Marko in Kuopio?
2011-03-17	Thu	Project work (home, online)		Away	Marko in Kuopio?
2011-03-18	Fri	Project work (home, online)		Away	Marko in Kuopio?
2011-03-21	Mon	Lectures, part 2			Marko in Kuopio?	Video?
2011-03-22	Tue	Lectures, part 2			Marko in Kuopio?	Video?
2011-03-23	Wed	Lectures, part 2			Marko in Kuopio?	Video?
2011-03-24	Thu	Lectures, part 2			Marko in Kuopio?	Video?
2011-03-25	Fri	Lectures, part 2			Marko in Kuopio?	Video?
2011-03-28	Mon	Lectures, part 2			Marko in Kuopio?	Video?
2011-03-29	Tue	Lectures, part 2			Marko in Kuopio?	Video?
2011-03-30	Wed	Lectures, part 2			Marko in Kuopio?	Video?
2011-03-31	Thu	Project seminars, feedback			Marko in Kuopio?
2011-04-01	Fri	Project seminars, feedback			Marko in Kuopio?

Learning outcomes

The student will learn about the fundaments of decision analysis; and the connections between societal decision-making and risk assessment. He is able to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of risk assessment. He also knows how to build an assessment based on the requirements of risk management.     

Content

• Theory of decision analysis.
• Value of information.
• Bayesian rule and Bayesian networks.
• Scientific method, falsification.
• Pragma-dialectic argumentation theory.
• Risk assessment as a collaborative project of information production.
• Opasnet and other web tools for risk assessment.
• Developing risk management options.
• Science-policy interface.     

Learning material

Online course readings in Opasnet: http://en.opasnet.org

Degree Programme(s)

ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment     

IMPLEMENTATION

Time

Spring 2011     

Teaching / Learning Methods

• Lectures 36 h
• Tutorial 0 h
• One-to-One Teaching 0 h
• Group Work 30 h
• Independent Study 96 h
• Web-Based Learning 30 %

Additional Information on Teaching / Learning Methods

Group work is in computer class.     

Teaching Languages

English

Additional Information on Languages

Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja)

YES

ASSESSMENT

Assessment is Based on

• Written Examination
• Project

Additional Information

The project will be a practical participation in a risk assessment in Opasnet.          

Assessment

0 (Fail) – 5 (Excellent)

Additional Information

     

Prerequisites

     

CONTACTS

Organising Departments

Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare)          

Course Director

Jukka Juutilainen     

Teachers

Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio     

Contact Persons

mikko.pohjola(at)thl.fi     

Registration for the Course

Wossikka     

FURTHER INFORMATION

Keywords

Risk assessment, decision analysis, Bayesian theory, open assessment, risk management, societal decision making.     

Further Information

See also

• Course contents in UEF website
• Ympäristöterveys-kurssi Avoimessa yliopistossa (Environmental health course in the Open University; in Finnish)
  • Course material (in Finnish)
• Monimediainen oppimisympäristö ympäristöterveydestä
• Keeney (2006): Decision Science programs in the USA