ERF of outdoor air pollution: Difference between revisions
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== Scope == | == Scope == | ||
== Definition == | '''Concentration-response to PM2.5''' describes the quantitative dose-response relationships between outdoor air PM2.5 concentration and mortality due to cardio-pulmonary, lung cancer and other non-accidental causes. | ||
== Definition == | |||
=== Causality === | |||
List of parents: | List of parents: | ||
* None | * None | ||
=== Data === | === Data === | ||
=== Formula === | List of data files or sources: | ||
The model randomly samples between the effect estimates provided by the two studies. See [[Media: | |||
* Dockery ''et al.'' 1993<ref>Dockery, D. W., Pope, C. A., III, Xu, X., Spengler, J. D., Ware, J. H., Fay, M. E., Ferris, B. G., Jr., &amp; Speizer F. E. (1993). An association between air pollution and mortality in six U.S. cities. The New England Journal of Medicine, 329(24), 1753-1759</ref> | |||
* Pope ''et al.'' 2002<ref>Pope, C. A. III, Burnett, R. T., Thun, M. J., Calle, E. E., Krewski, D., Ito, K., &amp; Thurston, G. D. (2002). Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmory Mortality, and Long-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution. The Journal of the American Medical Association, 287(9), 1132-1141</ref> | |||
=== Formula === | |||
The model randomly samples between the effect estimates provided by the two studies. See [[Media:Gasbus_model_01.ANA|the model for more detailed description]]. | |||
=== Unit === | |||
m<sup>3</sup>/μg {{disclink|Unit of dose response}} | m<sup>3</sup>/μg {{disclink|Unit of dose response}} | ||
== Result == | == Result == | ||
These coefficients are defined as distributions around estimates of central tendency for each cause of death. | These coefficients are defined as distributions around estimates of central tendency for each cause of death. | ||
Relative increase of mortality per 1 μgm-3 increase of outdoor PM2.5 concentration. Values were drawn with equal probability from the two distributions reported in <ref>Dockery, D. W., Pope, C. A., III, Xu, X., Spengler, J. D., Ware, J. H., Fay, M. E., Ferris, B. G., Jr., & Speizer F. E. (1993). An association between air pollution and mortality in six U.S. cities. The New England Journal of Medicine, 329(24), 1753-1759</ref>, <ref>Pope, C. A. III, Burnett, R. T., Thun, M. J., Calle, E. E., Krewski, D., Ito, K., & Thurston, G. D. (2002). Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmory Mortality, and Long-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution. The Journal of the American Medical Association, 287(9), 1132-1141</ref> | Relative increase of mortality per 1 μgm-3 increase of outdoor PM2.5 concentration. Values were drawn with equal probability from the two distributions reported in <ref>Dockery, D. W., Pope, C. A., III, Xu, X., Spengler, J. D., Ware, J. H., Fay, M. E., Ferris, B. G., Jr., &amp; Speizer F. E. (1993). An association between air pollution and mortality in six U.S. cities. The New England Journal of Medicine, 329(24), 1753-1759</ref>, <ref>Pope, C. A. III, Burnett, R. T., Thun, M. J., Calle, E. E., Krewski, D., Ito, K., &amp; Thurston, G. D. (2002). Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmory Mortality, and Long-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution. The Journal of the American Medical Association, 287(9), 1132-1141</ref> | ||
Crude mortality rate statistics from gas bus model (the dose response sub model). See [[Media:Gasbus_model_01.ANA|the model here]]. | |||
{| | |||
|- | |||
|Cause of death | | Cause of death | ||
|Min | | Min | ||
|Median | | Median | ||
|Mean | | Mean | ||
|Max | | Max | ||
|Std.Dev. | | Std.Dev. | ||
| | |- | ||
|Cardiopulmonary | | Cardiopulmonary | ||
| -0.0036 | | -0.0036 | ||
|0.0115 | | 0.0115 | ||
|0.0128 | | 0.0128 | ||
|0.0375 | | 0.0375 | ||
| -0.0060 | | -0.0060 | ||
| | |- | ||
|Lung cancer | | Lung cancer | ||
| -0.0350 | | -0.0350 | ||
|0.0140 | | 0.0140 | ||
|0.0150 | | 0.0150 | ||
|0.0728 | | 0.0728 | ||
|0.0109 | | 0.0109 | ||
| | |- | ||
|Other causes | | Other causes | ||
| -0.0232 | | -0.0232 | ||
|0.0008 | | 0.0008 | ||
|0.0008 | | 0.0008 | ||
|0.0252 | | 0.0252 | ||
|0.0050 | | 0.0050 | ||
| | |- | ||
|All causes | | All causes | ||
| -0.0019 | | -0.0019 | ||
|0.0080 | | 0.0080 | ||
|0.0091 | | 0.0091 | ||
|0.0289 | | 0.0289 | ||
|0.0047 | | 0.0047 | ||
|} | |} | ||
'''Uncertainties:''' | '''Uncertainties:''' | ||
* Mortality estimate from Hoek et al. (2002)<ref> Hoek, G, Brunekreef, B, Goldbohm, S, Fischer, P, & van den Brandt, P. A. (2002). Association between mortality and indicators of traffic-related air pollution in the Netherlands: a cohort study. | |||
* Mortality estimate from Hoek et al. (2002)<ref> Hoek, G, Brunekreef, B, Goldbohm, S, Fischer, P, &amp; van den Brandt, P. A. (2002). Association between mortality and indicators of traffic-related air pollution in the Netherlands: a cohort study. | |||
Lancet, 360 (9341), 1203-1209. </ref> was not included due to many confounding factors related to mortality, e.g. road noise. | Lancet, 360 (9341), 1203-1209. </ref> was not included due to many confounding factors related to mortality, e.g. road noise. | ||
*Probability for PM2.5 assumed to be the true cause of the effects in 70 %, 90 %, and 10 % for cardiopulmonary, lung cancer and all other mortality, respectively (author judgement). | * Probability for PM2.5 assumed to be the true cause of the effects in 70 %, 90 %, and 10 % for cardiopulmonary, lung cancer and all other mortality, respectively (author judgement). | ||
*Toxicity differences between ambient air particles and the particles generated by different bus types | * Toxicity differences between ambient air particles and the particles generated by different bus types were not taken into account due to lack of comprehensive data. <ref>Laden, F., Neas, L. M., Dockery, D. W., &amp; Schwartz, J. (2000). Association of fine particulate matter from different sources with daily mortality in six U.S. cities. Environmental Health Perspectives, 108, 941-947. </ref> <ref>Mar, T. F., Norris, G. A., Koenig, J. Q., &amp; Larson, T. V. (2000). Associations between air pollution and mortality in Phoenix, 1995-1997. Environmental Health Perspectives, 108(4), 347-353.</ref> | ||
*No threshold was assumed in the dose-response relationship. <ref>WHO Regional Office for Europe (2003). Health Aspects of Air Pollution with Particulate Matter, Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide, Report on a WHO Working Group. Report on a WHO working group, | * No threshold was assumed in the dose-response relationship. <ref>WHO Regional Office for Europe (2003). Health Aspects of Air Pollution with Particulate Matter, Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide, Report on a WHO Working Group. Report on a WHO working group, | ||
Bonn, Germany, January 13-15 2003. Copenhagen. 98 pages. Available at http://www.euro.who.int/eprise/main/who/progs/aiq/newsevents/20030115_2 </ref> <ref>Schwartz, J., Laden, F., & Zanobetti, A. (2002). The concentration-response relation between PM2.5 and daily deaths. Environmental Health Perspectives, 110(10), 1025-1029. </ref> | Bonn, Germany, January 13-15 2003. Copenhagen. 98 pages. Available at http://www.euro.who.int/eprise/main/who/progs/aiq/newsevents/20030115_2 </ref> <ref>Schwartz, J., Laden, F., &amp; Zanobetti, A. (2002). The concentration-response relation between PM2.5 and daily deaths. Environmental Health Perspectives, 110(10), 1025-1029. </ref> | ||
== References == | == References == | ||
<references/> | |||
<references /> | |||
[[Category:Exposure-response_functions]] | |||
Revision as of 09:57, 28 February 2008
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Scope
Concentration-response to PM2.5 describes the quantitative dose-response relationships between outdoor air PM2.5 concentration and mortality due to cardio-pulmonary, lung cancer and other non-accidental causes.
Definition
Causality
List of parents:
- None
Data
List of data files or sources:
Formula
The model randomly samples between the effect estimates provided by the two studies. See the model for more detailed description.
Unit
m3/μg D↷
Result
These coefficients are defined as distributions around estimates of central tendency for each cause of death.
Relative increase of mortality per 1 μgm-3 increase of outdoor PM2.5 concentration. Values were drawn with equal probability from the two distributions reported in [3], [4]
Crude mortality rate statistics from gas bus model (the dose response sub model). See the model here.
| Cause of death | Min | Median | Mean | Max | Std.Dev. |
| Cardiopulmonary | -0.0036 | 0.0115 | 0.0128 | 0.0375 | -0.0060 |
| Lung cancer | -0.0350 | 0.0140 | 0.0150 | 0.0728 | 0.0109 |
| Other causes | -0.0232 | 0.0008 | 0.0008 | 0.0252 | 0.0050 |
| All causes | -0.0019 | 0.0080 | 0.0091 | 0.0289 | 0.0047 |
Uncertainties:
- Mortality estimate from Hoek et al. (2002)[5] was not included due to many confounding factors related to mortality, e.g. road noise.
- Probability for PM2.5 assumed to be the true cause of the effects in 70 %, 90 %, and 10 % for cardiopulmonary, lung cancer and all other mortality, respectively (author judgement).
- Toxicity differences between ambient air particles and the particles generated by different bus types were not taken into account due to lack of comprehensive data. [6] [7]
References
- ↑ Dockery, D. W., Pope, C. A., III, Xu, X., Spengler, J. D., Ware, J. H., Fay, M. E., Ferris, B. G., Jr., & Speizer F. E. (1993). An association between air pollution and mortality in six U.S. cities. The New England Journal of Medicine, 329(24), 1753-1759
- ↑ Pope, C. A. III, Burnett, R. T., Thun, M. J., Calle, E. E., Krewski, D., Ito, K., & Thurston, G. D. (2002). Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmory Mortality, and Long-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution. The Journal of the American Medical Association, 287(9), 1132-1141
- ↑ Dockery, D. W., Pope, C. A., III, Xu, X., Spengler, J. D., Ware, J. H., Fay, M. E., Ferris, B. G., Jr., & Speizer F. E. (1993). An association between air pollution and mortality in six U.S. cities. The New England Journal of Medicine, 329(24), 1753-1759
- ↑ Pope, C. A. III, Burnett, R. T., Thun, M. J., Calle, E. E., Krewski, D., Ito, K., & Thurston, G. D. (2002). Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmory Mortality, and Long-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution. The Journal of the American Medical Association, 287(9), 1132-1141
- ↑ Hoek, G, Brunekreef, B, Goldbohm, S, Fischer, P, & van den Brandt, P. A. (2002). Association between mortality and indicators of traffic-related air pollution in the Netherlands: a cohort study. Lancet, 360 (9341), 1203-1209.
- ↑ Laden, F., Neas, L. M., Dockery, D. W., & Schwartz, J. (2000). Association of fine particulate matter from different sources with daily mortality in six U.S. cities. Environmental Health Perspectives, 108, 941-947.
- ↑ Mar, T. F., Norris, G. A., Koenig, J. Q., & Larson, T. V. (2000). Associations between air pollution and mortality in Phoenix, 1995-1997. Environmental Health Perspectives, 108(4), 347-353.
- ↑ WHO Regional Office for Europe (2003). Health Aspects of Air Pollution with Particulate Matter, Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide, Report on a WHO Working Group. Report on a WHO working group, Bonn, Germany, January 13-15 2003. Copenhagen. 98 pages. Available at http://www.euro.who.int/eprise/main/who/progs/aiq/newsevents/20030115_2
- ↑ Schwartz, J., Laden, F., & Zanobetti, A. (2002). The concentration-response relation between PM2.5 and daily deaths. Environmental Health Perspectives, 110(10), 1025-1029.