User:Tine Bizjak

Decision analysis and risk management 2017

Homework 1

←--#: . Very good! --Jouni (talk) 08:40, 10 April 2017 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: defence)

Homework 1a: Open policy practice

2. What is shared understanding?

Shared understanding is achieved when all participants of a decision making process understand:

• considered decision options and their outcomes,

• pursued objectives,

• existing facts, opinions and disagreements and

• selection of particular decision option.

Shared understanding is written down and shared with everyone.

9. What are the dimensions of openness?

Dimensions of openness can be used to find out if the work deviates from the openness ideal. They can identify how the openness can make a difference. Dimensions of openness include:

• Scope of participation (who can participate?)

• Access to information (for participants)

• Timing of openness (when can participants participate)

• Scope of contribution (to which parts can participants contribute)

• Impact of contribution (influence of participants contributions?)

18. What parts does the open policy practice consist of?

Open policy practice consists of:

• shared understanding – for all participants (the goal of open policy practice)

• execution (collecting, organising and synthesising scientific knowledge, values); 6 principles (intentionality, causality,critique, shared information objects, openness, reuse)

• evaluation and management (happening before, during and after execution)

• co-creation skills and facilitation or interactional expertise (to organization and synthesis of information)

Source: [Open policy practice]

Homework 1b: Learn the terms in Quizlet

Checked all 5 Quizlet topics. I looked at the flashcards, did tests and matched the terms with their meanings.

Homework 1c: Introduction to critical thinking

Checked some of the videos and did excercises.

Homework 1d: Introduction to probabilities

Checked the content on Khan academy.

Homework 3: Basic concepts of open assessment and co-creation

Task A

Question 1: I have come across the term bootstrap in relation with statistical tests before and am still not sure when this technique is applicable? ----#: . Zahra Shirani also asked about bootstrap, so see my answer to him. This technique is applicable for example estimating confidence intervals based on a single data set. --Jouni (talk) 09:27, 20 April 2017 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Question 2: The definition of multinomial is not very clear. Does it refer to animals or individuals that can be classified into categories? ----#: . Multinomial refers to distributions that are an extension to binomial distribution. Binomial distribution describes a process, where you repeat a trial that has exactly two possible outcomes, such as tossing a coin. With n trials and probability of success p, binomial distribution describes how likely it is to get k successes out of n. Multinomial is the same except there are more than two possible outcomes, and each of them has a certain probability to occur. It is like a multi-sided dice. --Jouni (talk) 09:27, 20 April 2017 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Task B

←--#: . Great! --Jouni (talk) 06:22, 11 May 2017 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: defence)

What is co-creation?

Co-creation is describing a process when all or most of the stakeholders are somehow involved in the making of a final “product”. The term can be applied in different areas. In case of a consumer – producer relationship it can describe a process when the consumers actively participate in the product design, development, purpose etc. The company producing a product is not designing it on its own, like it was done traditionally. In co-creation the value creation is done jointly by the company and the customer, which allows the customer to influence the construction so it will suit him better (it does not mean the customer is always right). Furthermore all the problems occurring in the value creation are defined and solved together. Co-creation can finally also lead to a greater variety of products/experiences and doesn’t necessarily end with the market placement of a “product”. Co-creation can help a lot in resolving dissatisfaction of the consumers in regard to certain products or services .

What advantage does it bring compared with more traditional decision support processes?

Compared to traditional decision support processes co-creation process actively involves more stakeholders and can consequently identify more valuable points needed for decision making. By involving more people the amount of dissatisfaction about the final product can be lowered significantly .

What is the role of a facilitator, and what skills do they need?

Facilitator helps the client to structure and define the problems in specific situations and to support the problems evaluation process and development of future plans. Facilitators support can be especially helpful in resolving complex situations. Four main facilitators skills are:

1. active listening,
2. chart-writing,
3. managing group dynamics and power shifts, and
4. research closure.

Active listening is describing the ability of the modeller to clarify, develop, summarise and refine participants’ contributions. Active listening and consequent guidance of the discussion can help in avoiding blind spots, keeping track of the discussion, clarifying, getting to common grounds etc. Chart writing is needed especially if no computer support is used. It considers the appropriate writing style and speed of writing and the use of different symbols to represent the information. Managing group dynamics and power shifts is the most important facilitators skill. Difficult group situations can be managed by the facilitator in different ways. One of the most typical ones is to help the group to step back from the content and to focus more on the process. Facilitator needs to identify when in modelling he needs to intervene. Reaching closure skill helps the participants of the group to reach agreements. Facilitator must identify when the discussion about the topic is extensive enough to draw appropriate conclusions. Facilitator may also need to check if the conclusions are sufficent for those with decision making power or if more discussion is necessary .

References

Homework 4

== ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGY IN SINGAPORE ==

== Scope ==

=== Question ===

=== Intended use and users ===

=== Participants ===

=== Boundaries ===

=== Decisions and scenarios ===

=== Timing ===

== Answer ==

=== Results ===

=== Conclusions ===

== Rationale ==

Upload a causal diagram and change the right name here.

Add a legend for your diagram.

=== Stakeholders ===

=== Dependencies ===

=== Analyses ===

=== Indices ===

=== Calculations ===

== See also ==

== Keywords ==

== References ==

== Related files ==

Homework 5

See page of Tamara