BIOHER assessment: Difference between revisions

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(Bioher assessment sivun päivittäminen)
(Old model deleted!!! :C)
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This is assessment page of '''Bioher'''. Bioher is a research project coordinated by National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL). The duration is 2008-2011. Project includes five subprojects with 1) measurement of PM and greenhouse gas emissions, 2) chemical characterization and assessment of atmospheric thermal impact of emitted PM, 3) toxicological characterization of emitted PM, 4) assessment of exposure to and health effects of current residential wood combustion, 5) assessment of health risks.  
This is assessment page of '''Bioher'''. Bioher is a research project coordinated by National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL). The duration is 2008-2011. Project includes five subprojects with 1) measurement of PM and greenhouse gas emissions, 2) chemical characterization and assessment of atmospheric thermal impact of emitted PM, 3) toxicological characterization of emitted PM, 4) assessment of exposure to and health effects of current residential wood combustion, 5) assessment of health risks.  


This assessment page includes scope, definition, and result of health risk assessment of fine particles of four residential heating scenarios/decisions. Main study questions are:
Main study questions are:
 
*How human risks differs between four heating scenarios/decisions?
*How human risks differs between four heating scenarios/decisions?
*What are the costs of emissions and health effects due to different heating scenarios/decisions?
*What are the costs of emissions and health effects due to different heating scenarios/decisions?
*What are climate change impacts of PM emissions and health effects due to CC?
*What are climate change impacts of PM emissions and health effects due to CC?


[http://en.opasnet.org/w/Image:Claih_model.ANA  CLAIH/BIOHER analytica model ]  
[http://en.opasnet.org/w/Image:Claih_model.ANA  CLAIH/BIOHER analytica model ]  


== Scope  ==
== Scope  ==
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*Assessment and Modelling Unit of THL: [[User:Virpi Kollanus|Virpi Kollanus]], [[User:Pauliina|Pauliina]], [[User:Marko|Marko]], [[User:Mikko Pohjola|Mikko Pohjola]], [[User:Jouni|Jouni]]
*Assessment and Modelling Unit of THL: [[User:Virpi Kollanus|Virpi Kollanus]], [[User:Pauliina|Pauliina]], [[User:Marko|Marko]], [[User:Mikko Pohjola|Mikko Pohjola]], [[User:Jouni|Jouni]]
*Other researchers related Bioher -project
*Other researchers related Bioher -project
==Variables==
*[[Heating systems in buildings in Finland]]
*[[Heating consumption of buildings]]
*[[Energy efficiency of buildings in Finland]]
*[[Emission factors for burning processes]]
*[[ERF of PM2.5 on mortality in general population]]
*[[Prices of fuels in heat production]]


== Conclusions  ==
== Conclusions  ==
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==Old model==
*Older version of Analytica model: [[:Image:Bioher model.ANA|BIOHER analytica model]]
== Results  ==
*Floor area in Bioher is approximately 50 m<sup>2</sup> per inhabitant that is 500 000 m<sup>2</sup> in total area.
**[[Floor area in Bioher]]
*For total heating consumption by own heating, total electricity heating and plant heating in Bioher are 18.6 GWh/year, 15.7 GWh/ year and 14.0 GWh/year respectively. Total heating consumption in Bioher (10 000 inh.) is 48.3 GWh/ year.
**[[Total heating consumption by own heating in Bioher]]
**[[Electricity heating in Bioher]]
**[[Energy consumption of Bioher plant]]
*PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions are approximately 372 mg/s and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions are 4.4 t/s in Bioher.
**[[Emissions in Bioher]]
*Exposure to PM<sub>2.5</sub> (µg/m<sup>3</sup>) of Bioher population is 0.31 for heating production part and 0.23 for district heating part. Total exposure is 0.54 µg/m<sup>3</sup> for Bioher population. Exposure due electricity emissions has not taken account yet.
**[[Exposure to PM2.5 in Bioher]]
*PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions of own heating of houses and small municipality plant heating production (=district heating) causes approximately 1.4 premature deaths in ten years in Bioher case.
**[[Health effects in Bioher]]
*Total fuel costs of heating consumption is 3.1 million euros per year.  That means costs of over 300 euros per inhabitant in year.
**[[Costs of heat production in Bioher]]
== Definition  ==
[[File:Biohermalli.png|thumb|450px|center|Figure 1. Main model of health effect assessment in Bioher. ]]
=== Variables  ===
'''Decision'''
''This variable is not clear yet!!
*Decisions of citizen level between different heating systems
**Is there district heating system available (emissions from small power plant -&gt; decisions of society level)
** Own heating system: fuel types (pellets/light oil)
**Building stock (energy efficiency of buildings)
*Decisions of society level
**Extent of district heating system
**Fuel type of energy production (heavy oil/wood chips)
**Building stock (energy efficiency of buildings)
'''Population
Population in Bioher is '''10 000 inhabitants'''
(For the comparison, the page of [[Population of Finland]] describes population of Finland.)
'''House stock'''
House stock as [[floor area in Bioher]] is indexed with house types (detached, row and block houses) and fuel types and all data is based on Finnish statistics. Building statistics in Finland have been described more intensively in the page of  [[Heating systems in buildings in Finland]].
'''Heating consumption'''
Heating consumption is merged in three different energy consumption calculations/variables:
*[[Total heating consumption by own heating in Bioher]]
*[[Electricity heating in Bioher]]
*[[Energy consumption of Bioher plant]]
These three variables based on method of calculation of [[Heating consumption of buildings]] with
heating of tap water in buildings, heating consumption with monthly temperature variation and [[Energy efficiency of buildings in Finland|Energy efficiency of buildings in Finland]].
Heating consumption by own heating means own heating systems in houses. In Bioher 34 % of total heating was produced with own heating system, 28% of total heating was electricity and 38% of heat was produced as district heating in small heating plant. Fraction of each variable is calculated in the page of [[Heating systems in buildings in Finland]].
'''Emission '''
PM<sub>2.5</sub> and GHG emissions in Bioher is described in the variable of [[Emissions in Bioher]]. In emission calculation knowledge of [[Emission factors for burning processes]] have been used.
'''Exposure '''
[[Exposure to PM2.5 in Bioher]] is based on rough estimate due emissions, [[intake fraction]] of population and [[breathing rate]]. Because emission estimates based direct emissions of source, dispersion is not taken account. Also exposure indoors is not taken account YET.
'''Health effect '''
In Bioher premature mortality are considered firstly as health effects due emissions ([[Health effects in Bioher]]). Exposure response factors (ERF) of PM<sub>2.5</sub> for all causes, cardiopulmonary and lung cancer are described in [[ERF of PM2.5 on mortality in general population]]. Used ERF for premature mortality was 0.6. Background mortality of Bioher populaiton is 86 deaths in one year.
'''Expenses '''
Costs can be devided in two part: costs of heat production and costs of health effects. [[Costs of heat production in Bioher]] includes fuel, investment and service prices. For now all costs includes only fuel prices ([[Prices of fuels in heat production]]). Costs of health effects are defined more in [[CLAIH assessment]].
'''Climate change'''
'''???
*Positive effect (warming)
**CO<sub>2</sub>
**BC (black carbon)
**CH<sub>4</sub>
**N<sub>2</sub>O
**CFC
**NO<sub>x</sub>?
**H<sub>2</sub>O?
*Negative effect (cool down)
**PM<sub>2.5</sub>
**Albedo (soil surface, snow, clouds)




Revision as of 06:27, 14 September 2011

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Health and climate impacts of heat production in small municipalities (BIOHER)

This is assessment page of Bioher. Bioher is a research project coordinated by National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL). The duration is 2008-2011. Project includes five subprojects with 1) measurement of PM and greenhouse gas emissions, 2) chemical characterization and assessment of atmospheric thermal impact of emitted PM, 3) toxicological characterization of emitted PM, 4) assessment of exposure to and health effects of current residential wood combustion, 5) assessment of health risks.

Main study questions are:

  • How human risks differs between four heating scenarios/decisions?
  • What are the costs of emissions and health effects due to different heating scenarios/decisions?
  • What are climate change impacts of PM emissions and health effects due to CC?

 CLAIH/BIOHER analytica model

Scope

Purpose

The purpose is to evaluate PM2.5 and green house gas (GHG) emissions of detached houses and small heating power plant, to assess exposure and health effects due to evaluated emissions and to define emission, heating and health effect costs. Assessment is going to compare four alternative ways to arrange decentralized energy production in communities with 2000 - 10000 inhabitants: light oil and pellets as fuel of detached houses and heavy oil and wood chips as fuel of small heating plants. In addition, environmental effects i.e. climate change (CC) of PM2.5 and GHG emissions is assessed with this model.

Questions:

  • What would be the health effects of PM2.5 emissions of small power plant and individual houses in small living area (2000- 10000 inh.)?
  • What are GHG emissions of individual houses and small power plant and how emissions effect on CC?
  • What are the costs of different alternatives?
  • What is the optimal decision to produce energy and heat to houses?

Boundaries

  • Energy production (single house and small energy plant level, 1-20MW)
  • Population (2000-10000 inh.)
  • Exposure for PM2.5
  • ER-functions for PM2.5
  • PM2.5 emissions (->health effects)
  • PM2.5 climate effect (-> health effects)
  • Household heating scenarios:
    • Light oil and pellets
  • Small heating plant scenarios:
    • Heavy oil and wood chips
  • Atmospheric thermal impact
  • DALY
  • Impacts:
    • Climate change
    • Premature mortality
    • Costs

Scenarios

Scenarios include two different fuel types of energy production in detached houses and small power plant:
Detached houses

  • light oil
  • Pellets


Small power plant

  • Heavy oil
  • Wood chips

Intended users

  • City-level policy-makers in all sectors in Kuopio as well as everywhere else
  • International policy-makers related climate change
  • Policy-makers related health risks of fine particles and green house gases
  • General public
  • Scientists working on health risks of fine particles, green house gases and climate change
  • Other interested of topic

Participants

Variables



Conclusions

Analyses

  • Cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses
  • value-of-information (VOI) analysis

See also



Other variables in the scale of Finland

Emissions in Finland:

Exposure in Finland:

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