Hämeenkyrö MSWI risk assessment: Indicators

See the main page of this assessment: Hämeenkyrö MSWI risk assessment: General

• Decisions related to Hämeenkyrö case
• Possible indicators (optimising variables) in Hämeenkyrö

Well-being of the population (smells, comfort, noise)

Kari Auri

Karis proposal

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Description:	Focus: proposal to how to define the focus of this variable D↷ Direct or indirect information about the factors affecting peoples living comfortability related to waste management alternatives (disposal site or MSWI). Direct variables are modelled or measured (ie. noise map) and indicators are based on feedback from local people or from other indirect source. If the decision model will be used to analyse alternative scenarios, we have to include both modelled variables and feedback variables here or alternatively define these own variable for the Pyrkilö -model. Scope: proposal to how to define the scope Areas related to alternative waste management systems in Pirkanmaa. Thus, focus will be on existing dumping place (Tarastejärvi) and planned MSWI plant in Hämeenkyrö. Modelled variables will be estimated using different time scales (day, month, year). Well-being indicators will be monitored continuosly and summarizing reports can be done monthly and annually. People can also be asked what kind of changes in comfortability factors they believe to happen in future when a certain waste management alternative is implemented. MSWI and dumping site alternatives have diffent total noise and smell effects for people living near the emission source. Both should be analysed before final solution. Discription: some ideas of different factors (both a: direct variables and b: indicators) 1 Noise a) modelled noise maps / control noise measurements in neighborhoods of site based on: - estimated amount of traffic near waste treatment site - noise emissions from operating incinerator - extra noise from birds (near landfill site) Inputs: waste collection data, emission data from plant, bird invetory and voice emission data Unit: dB b) noise distubance asked from local people - how often people suffer from noise? - continuous or episodic noise? Inputs: Indicator data from systematic post questionaries and continuous feedback forms from web-site. Unit: Index value or classfied indicator (1-5 levels) 2 Smell/odor a) maps based on odor dispersion models Inputs: data from waste management processes in landfill site b) smell information asked from local people Inputs: questionaries & online feedback forms on the web Unit: Index value or classfied indicator (1-5 levels) 3 Social factors b) socioeconomic indicators based on statistics at small area (250x250 m) resolution - socioeconomic variables (income, unemployment, education) are used to calculate social index - indicator may be useful information before the decisions, but also for monitoring and forecasting changes in future when plant/landfill site is operating Inputs: statistics Unit: index (deprivation index) 4 Scenic values a) visibility maps calculated using GIS Iputs: digital elevation model, forest data and other geograpical data b) scenic values asked from local people Inputs: questionary Unit: index 5 Discomfort index b) index based on several questions from local people about comfortability of area Inputs: questionary Unit: index 6 Concern index (Health effects) b) index based on several questions from local people about concerns their have about the possible health effects Inputs: questionary Unit: index
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Auris proposal

Focus:	Factors or issues affecting peoples living comfortability in Hämeenkyrö.
Scope:	The basic factors, like a noise, smell, social factors, etc., that affect the comfortability of inhabitants in Hämeenkyrö. Some of these factors can be measured and some are based on a experience and/or common beliefs and thoughts of inhabitants in Hämeenkyrö, like in other places where the municipal solid waste incinerator have been planned earlier (in Viljakkala).
Description:	1.The noise: From the building phase of the municipal solid waste incinerator From operation time of the municipal incinerator From the traffic Things that should take account: Comparing the noise from the incinerator to the noise coming from the birds, the traffic and activities in a landfill The incinerator has planned to build in the existing industrial place. What is the present level of the noise in that site? What is the distance from the industrial site to the settlement? The noise disturbs the comfortability of the living 2. The smell: Probable less disturbing comparing it to the dump site. Inhabitants, who live near the landfill, think that the smell decreases the living comfortability a lot. 3. The social factors: Increasing a employment grade Decreasing the value of the property (houses, lands, summer cottages) Fear of the birds (the influenza) 4. Landscape: A minor effect 5. Other things that will not occur with the municipal solid waste incinerator: Diseases coming via the rats or birds? (This is a wild assumption) Hazardous components leaching to the ground water and/or surface water will decrease.(The incinerator processes are controlled and monitored) The inhabitants can pick berries and mushrooms with good feelings, without the fear of the hazardous components coming from the wastesite (like from the landfill).
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References:	YVA-reports and public opinion writings from the internet: http://www.ymparisto.fi/default.asp?contentid=168741&lan=fi http://www.viljakkalanpuolesta.net/lehdista1.html http://www.ytv.fi/NR/rdonlyres/FDC064707E3A4FF18458C7CDE7B02C01/0/biotuhka_yva05.pdf#search=%22kaatopaikka%20lintuhaitta%22 http://www.eko-kymppi.fi/majasaari/YVA-selostus.pdf#search=%22kaatopaikka%20lintuhaitta%22 http://www.jyvaskyla.fi/paatos/kh/2004/15031400.0/txt121.htm http://www.tapanila.fi/historia/kaatopaikka.html http://www.hameenkyronpolttolaitos.net/pdf/sivu2.pdf

Effects on economy (esp. gas energy plant)

Juha

Effects on economy

Focus:	What effects does possible municipal solid waste incinerator have to the economy of Hämeenkyrö
Scope:	10 - 20 years?
Description:	How new municipal solid waste incinerator affects to economy? Waste incinerator is going to be a quite significant employer in Hämeenkyrö. It is also noted that price of gas energy is rising so it might be necessary to build the waste incinerator to guarantee low priced energy for M-real cardboard factory and Finnforest sawmill. Shutdown of either of these factory could be devastating to Hämeenkyrö's economy (employs over 300 persons). Shutdown of gas energy plant is not crucial (employs only 24 people).
Inputs:	Data Persons employed gas energy plant (24 person) starting phase of the municipal solid waste incinerator (50 - 60 person-year) working phase of municipal solid waste incinerator (60 - 70 persons) M-Real cardboard factory (335 persons) Finnforest Sawmill (? persons) Tax incomes directly to Hämeenkyrö directly to Pirkanmaa indirect taxes (Sawmill, cardboard factory and waste incinerator)
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Unit:	€ or employed persons
Result:	Worst-case scenario: No waste incinerator or bioplant, shutdown of both factories and gas plant Over 300 person less are employed Best-case scenario: Waste incinerator is builded, both factories and gas plant remains over 70 persons more are employed OK-case scenario: Waste incinerator is builded, both factories remains, gas plant is shut down about 50 persons more are employed
References:	Pirkanvoima - website [1], accessed in 21.9.2006 Kyro Power - website [2], accessed in 21.9.2006 Kyro Technologies - website [3], accessed in 21.9.2006 M-Real - website [4], accessed in 21.9.2006

Transportation costs of waste

Changes of waste transportation costs at Hämeenkyrö region

Focus:	We focus on three different scenarios of waste transport at Hämeenkyrö region 1. Current situation: waste is transported to landfill (Tampere) 2. Future situation 1: waste is transported to MSWI elsewhere 3a. Future situation 2: MSWI uses both munispal slod waste and industrial solid waste and purchases the waste material at the shortest possible distance 3b. Future situation 3: MSWI uses only municipal solid waste and purchases the waste material further away
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Description:	Scenario 1 Assumptions: Pirkanmaan jätehuolto collects the waste at Hämeenkyrö and transports it to landfill at Tampre or at Nokia Scenario 2 Assumptions: Pirkanmaan jätehuolto collects the waste at Hämeenkyrö and transports it to Tampre: nearest MSWI assumed to be built in Tampere Scenario 3a Assumptions: MSWI purchases 100 000 tons of municipal solid waste/year from Pirkanmaan jätehuolto, 20000 tons of industrial waste/year from M-real and 80000 tons of industrial waste /year from solid waste treatment plant at Viljakkala waste collection and transportation costs inside the area of Pirkanmaan jätehuotlo do not change significantly if the waste is transported to Hämeenkyrö instead of Tampere and Nokia transportation costs: 0,12-0,23 €/t/km, waste collection costs inside each municipal are not counted, because they assumed to be constant in all scenarios distance between M-real plant and MSWI: 1,5 km distance between Viljakkala and MSWI : 15 km Uncertainties: this model assumes that waste of M-real plat is transported to MSWI. In reality, that could shorten the existing waste transport route solid waste treatment plant at Viljakkala is not established yet Scenario 3b: Assumptions: Sources of waste: 100 000 tons of municipal solid waste/year from Pirkanmaan jätehuolto, 100 000 tons of municipal solid waste/year from other municipals average transport distance from other municipal centres 109 km long-distance transports made by vehicle of 40 ton capacity transportation costs: 0,12-0,23 €/t/km waste collection costs inside each municipal not counted, because they assumed to be constant in all scenarios: only transportations between municipal centres are counted
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Unit:	€/year
Result:	Scenario 1: Waste transport costs do not change in Hämeenkyrö compared to current situation Scenario 2: Waste transport costs do not change in Hämeenkyrö compared to current situation Scenario 3a Assumed that the total municipal solid waste transportation cost does not change inside the region of Pirkanmaa jätehuolto, additional cost of waste transportation would be 0,1-0,3 milj. €/year Number of waste transport vehicles will increase by 61/day (by 122/d to both directions) Scenario 3 b Additional cost of waste transportation would be 1,2-2,4 milj. €/year Number of waste transport vehicles will increase by 53/day (by 106/d to both directions)
References:	http://www.ymparisto.fi/download.asp?contentid=37110&lan=fi http://www.ymparisto.fi/download.asp?contentid=42635&lan=fi#search=%22toivonen%20yhti%C3%B6t%22 http://lipasto.vtt.fi/yksikkopaastot/laskentaperusteet_tavaraliikenne_autoliikenne.htm

Dioxin exposure-response function on population level

Anu T

Dioxin exposure-response function on population level

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Description:	Dioxins are a group of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs). 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) is the most toxic PCDD/Fs congener, and it is classified as a known human carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). Health effects related to long-term exposure impairment of the immune system impairment of the developing nervous system impairment of the endocrine system impairment of reproductive functions increased cancer risk Evidence concerning cancer risk is mainly from animal studies, and dioxins are probably quite weak carcinogens in humans. Evindence concerning other health effects is inconsistent. Sensitive subgroups: foetuses, newborns, individuals with high fish consumption, individuals working in incineration plants etc. (For health effects related to short-term exposure R↻ )
Inputs:	Dioxin variables: Dioxin emissions in Hämeenkyrö Baseline dioxin exposure in Hämeenkyrö Dioxin exposure due to MSWI in Hämeenkyrö
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Unit:	increase in lifetime risk per pg/kg body weight
Result:	effective dose resulting in a 0.01 increase in lifetime risk of cancer mortality (ED01): 45 pg/kg body weight (95% CI 21-324 pg/kg body weight) tolerable daily intake (TDI): 1-4 pg/kg body weight
References:	Crump et al. 2003. Meta-analysis of dioxin-cancer dose-response for three occupational cohorts. Environmental Health Perspectives 111 (5), 681-687. Kogevinas 2001. Human health effects of dioxins: cancer, reproductive and endochrine system effects. Human Reproduction Update 7 (3), 331-339. Tuomisto et al. 1999. Synopsis on dioxins and PCBs. Publications of the National Public Health Institute B17/1999.

PM_2.5 exposure-response function on population level

PM_2.5 exposure-response function on population level

Focus:	Describes the relationship between ambient concentrations of PM2.5 and the frequency of specific health effects in a given timeperiod
Scope:	General population average considered
Description:	PM2.5 are fine particles less than 2.5 μm in diameter. Concentration-response function is needed when we determine the health impact of PM2.5 concentrations in Hämeenkyrö on local people. Health impact of PM concentrations in Hämeenkyrö = concentration *concentration response. Concentration-response function needs data from exposure modelling, animal toxicology, small clinical or panel studies, and epidemiological studies. Exposed population can be subdivided to subpopulations (adults, children, infants, elder people). Exposure is assessed in a certain timeperiod (daily, annual exposure). Health effects related to short-term exposure respiratory symptoms adverse cardiovascular effects increased medication usage increased number of hospital admissions increased mortality Health effects related to long-term exposure (more relevance to public health) increased incidence of respiratory symptoms reduction in lung function increased incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) reduction in life expectancy increased cardiopulmonary mortality increased lung cancer mortality Sensitive subgroups: children, the elderly, individuals with heart and lung disease, individuals who are active outdoors
Inputs:	Fine particle variables: PM2.5 emissions in Hämeenkyrö PM2.5 emissions from MSWI, biofuel plant, and natural gas plant in Hämeenkyrö Baseline PM2.5 exposure in Hämeenkyrö PM2.5 exposure due to MSWI in Hämeenkyrö
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Unit:	increase in adverse health effect/ 1 ug/m3 change in PM 2.5 concentration increase in the risk of death per each 10 µg/m3 elevation in PM2.5
Result:	PM2.5 6% increase in the risk of deaths from all causes (95% CI 2-11%) 12% increase in the risk of death from cardiovascular diseases and diabetes (95% CI 8-15%) 14% increase in the risk of death from lung cancer (95% CI 4-23%) per each 10 µg/m3 elevation in PM2.5 air pollution
References:	Health aspects of air pollution. Results from the WHO project "Systematic review of health aspects of air pollution in Europe". World Health Organization, 2004. http://www.euro.who.int/document/E83080.pdf Pope et al. 2002. Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. JAMA 287(9), 1132-1141. Pope et al. 2004. Cardiovascular mortality and long-term exposure to particulate air pollution. Circulation (109), 71-77. Service Contract for Carrying out Cost-Benefit Analysis of Air Quality Related Issues, in particular in the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) Programme. Volume 2: Health Impact Assessment. AEA Technology Environment, 2005. http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/cafe/pdf/cba_methodology_vol2.pdf http://es.epa.gov/ncer/rfa/2004/2004_pm_research.html

Health effects of dioxins and PM_2.5

Anu T

Health effects of dioxins and PM_2.5 (conclusion)

Focus:	effects of dioxins and PM2.5 on human health
Scope:	potential short-term and long-term health effects among Hämeenkyrö inhabitants caused by dioxins and PM2.5 originating from the Hämeenkyrö municipal solid waste incinerator
Description:	Estimated dioxin and PM2.5 exposure levels among Hämeenkyrö inhabitants are compared with the evidence about exposure-response functions of dioxins and PM2.5. This comparison results in an assessment of the probable health effects among Hämeenkyrö inhabitants if MSWI plant is build.
Inputs:	Fine particle variables: PM2.5 emissions in Hämeenkyrö PM2.5 emissions from MSWI, biofuel plant, and natural gas plant in Hämeenkyrö Baseline PM2.5 exposure in Hämeenkyrö PM2.5 exposure due to MSWI in Hämeenkyrö PM2.5 exposure-response function on population level Dioxin variables: Dioxin emissions in Hämeenkyrö Baseline dioxin exposure in Hämeenkyrö Dioxin exposure due to MSWI in Hämeenkyrö Dioxin exposure-response function on population level
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References:	see the references of the variables Dioxin exposure-response function on population level and PM2.5 exposure-response function on population level