Talk:Decision analysis and risk management

Draft synopsis

Introduction to course: content and methods

CASE 1-2: Intro: how problem emerged, global problem

Risk management: what is managed, who is responsible, what is included? traditional paradigm

• Look from decision-maker's point of view: needs, communication, and assessment all included
• Openness: RA, RM, RC are not totally separate
• Performance: Context about what we actually aim to achieve. Ho do we know if we succeeded?
• Developing risk management options.
• Development of risk assessment questions.
• Science-policy interface. Why it does not exist.

CASE 3: Preparedness in Finland and internationally

CASE 4: Vaccination campaigns, counter-campaigns

• Should we launch vaccination campaign?
• Should I take vaccination? Should I not take vaccination?

Decision analysis: introduction: decision trees

• Purpose of assessment: Why it is done
• Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimisation, uncertainty

Subjective probabilities, exercise

• Bayesian rule and Bayesian networks.
• Denis Lindley: Philosophy of probabilities

CASE 5: First deaths of swine flu (threat was real) CASE 6: Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers

CASE 7: Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought.

Decision-making under uncertainty

• Assessment performance? Quality of evidence? Impacts of uncertainty in decision-making. Hindsight.
• Inference rules: how do we know what we know?
• Acceptability
• Value of information

CASE 8: Secret connections to drug industry?

Case 9: Narcolepsy

Trialogue, collective learning

• Justified true belief and its problems
• Shared information vs. private information
• Actions by a group based on shared information
• Shared belief systems
• Risk assessment as a collaborative project of information production.

Scientific method, falsification.

• Do we need pre-peer-review?

Discussion section here?

Opasnet section here?

CASE: Vaccination campaign halted.

CASE 10: THL remains silent

CASE 11: Narcolepsy analysis

Why openness is needed

• Impacts of openness on topics discussed.

Opasnet and other web tools for risk assessment.

• Practical and technical things to get started.
• Aim: to learn skills that are needed to perform and participate in practical training.

Discussion section here?

CASE 12: Publishing of narcolepsy results and apologies

CASE 13: Searching for the quilty.

Discussion: Lectures of concepts

• Pragma-dialectic argumentation theory.
• Parts of argumentation.

Structuring of discussions in practice and theory

• Ready-made texts: discussions and organisation
• Homework: evaluate relevance - validity of arguments. Discuss in groups the next day.
• Build a structured discussion out of this in groups.
• Possibly utilise group writing tools?

Case study: practical work

• Decision analysis
• Revisiting of policy question
• Impact of closedness/openness in this case (opportunity or threat?)
• Risk communication: how should it have been done?

Suunnittelussa huomioonotettavaa

• aikataulurajoitteet
• tila-, väline- yms. vaatmukset
• tilavaraukset
• videointi, koneet, verkko?
• DA-mallin kehikko
• infomateriaali omatoimiseen työhön
  • case
  • käsitteistö ja teoria
• perusasialuennot → työnjako, suunnitelmat, tausta- ja esitysmateriaalit
• harjoitustehtävät → peruskäsitteistö yms. / DA-case / kyselyt kurssin kuluessa