ERF for heat exposure and mortality: Difference between revisions

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[[heande:ERF of heat exposure on mortality]]
[[category:Health effects]]
[[Category: CLAIH]]
{{variable|moderator = Virpi Kollanus}}
{{variable|moderator = Virpi Kollanus}}


[[Category: CLAIH]]
{{todo|There is an overlap between this page and [[ERF of ambient temperature on mortality]]. These should be merged. I prefer the latter name.|Virpi Kollanus, Teemu Rintala|project=Intarese}}
 
'''Boxes with dashed borders''' contain brief guidance text for completing the entries for new variables.


== Scope ==
== Scope ==


This includes a verbal definition of the spatial, temporal, and other limits
(system boundaries) of the variable. The scope is defined according to the use
purpose of the assessment(s) that the variable belongs to.


Exposure-response relationship for short-term heat exposure and mortality.
Exposure-response relationship for short-term ambient heat exposure and mortality.


'''Dimensions and boundaries relevant for the variable
'''Dimensions and boundaries relevant for the variable
Line 23: Line 21:
=== Data ===
=== Data ===


Description of the data used for obtaining the value of the variable
(e.g. measurement data; mathematical method and its parameters).
Please include references (preferably using the ''<nowiki><ref></ref></nowiki>'' tags)
and links to original data, as appropriate.


'''PHEWE-project <ref>Baccini M, Biggeri A, Accetta G, Kosatsky T, Katsouyanni K, Analitis A, Ross Anderson H, Bisanti L, D'Ippoliti D, Danova J, Forsberg B, Medina S, Paldy A, Rabczenko D, Schindler C & Michelozzi P. 2008. Heat Effects on Mortality in 15 European Cities. Epidemiology, 15: 711-719.</ref>
'''PHEWE-project <ref>Baccini M, Biggeri A, Accetta G, Kosatsky T, Katsouyanni K, Analitis A, Ross Anderson H, Bisanti L, D'Ippoliti D, Danova J, Forsberg B, Medina S, Paldy A, Rabczenko D, Schindler C & Michelozzi P. 2008. Heat Effects on Mortality in 15 European Cities. Epidemiology, 15: 711-719.</ref>


Percent changes in mortality by age-group with 1<sup>o</sup>C increase in maximum apparent temperature above the city-specific threshold temperature in European cities
Meta-analytical percent changes in mortality by age-group with 1<sup>o</sup>C increase in maximum apparent temperature above the city-specific threshold temperature in European cities




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!  
!  
|-----
|-----
! Cause-of-death
! Cause of death
! Age (years)
! Age (years)
! % change
! % change
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! 95% Cl
! 95% Cl
|-----
|-----
| All-cause (natural)
| All natural causes
| All
| All
| 3.12
| 3.12
| (0.60, 5.73)
| 0.60, 5.73
| 1.84
| 1.84
| 0.06, 3.64
| 0.06, 3.64
Line 76: Line 70:
| 0.24, 3.89
| 0.24, 3.89
|-----
|-----
| element
| Cardiovascular
| element
| All
| element
| 3.70
| element
| 0.36, 7.04
| element
| 2.44
| element
| -0.09, 5.32
|-----
|-----
| element
|  
| element
| 15-64
| element
| 0.57
| element
| -2.47, 3.83
| element
| 1.04
| element
| -2.20, 4.92
|-----
|-----
| element
|  
| element
| 65-74
| element
| 1.92
| element
| -1.49, 5.35
| element
| 1.50
| element
| -1.12, 4.62
|-----
|-----
| element
|  
| element
| 75+
| element
| 4.66
| element
| 1.13, 8.18
| element
| 2.55
| element
| -0.24, 5.51
|-----
|-----
| element
| Respiratory
| element
| All
| element
| 6.71
| element
| 2.43, 11.26
| element
| 6.10
| element
| 2.46, 11.08
|-----
|-----
| element
|  
| element
| 15-64
| element
| 1.54
| element
| -3.68, 7.22
| element
| 3.02
| element
| -1.55, 7.42
|-----
|-----
| element
|  
| element
| 65-74
| element
| 3.37
| element
| -1.46, 8.22
| element
| 3.90
| element
| -0.16, 8.92
|-----
|-----
| element
|  
| element
| 75+
| element
| 8.10
| element
| 3.24, 13.37
| element
| 6.62
| element
| 3.04, 11.42
|-----
|}
| element
 
| element
*Meta-analytical estimates are based studies in the following cities:
| element
**Mediterranean cities: Athens, Rome, Barcelona, Valencia, Turin, Milan, Lubljana
| element
**North-continental cities: Prague, Budapest, Zurich, Paris, Helsinki, Stockholm, London, Dublin
| element
*Based on climate and mortality data for the period 1990-2000
| element
*Exposure assessment: daily maximum apparent outdoor air temperature (nearest airport weather station of each city)
 
Maud's interpretation of PHEWE<ref>Baccini et al 2008 Epidemiology, vol 19, number 5, pp. 711-719</ref>.
 
{| {{prettytable}}
|+'''ERF of heat on mortality.
! Region!! Cause of death!! Age!! % change per 1 degree above threshold
|----
|| Nothern continental||  TOTAL ||  15-64 || 1.31
|----
|| Nothern continental||  TOTAL ||  65-74 || 1.65
|----
|| Nothern continental||  TOTAL ||  75+ || 2.07
|----
|| Nothern continental||  CVD ||  15-64 || 1.04
|----
|| Nothern continental||  CVD ||  65-74 || 1.50
|----
|| Nothern continental||  CVD ||  75+ || 2.55
|----
|| Nothern continental||  RESP ||  15-64 || 3.02
|----
|| Nothern continental||  RESP ||  65-74 || 3.90
|----
|| Nothern continental||  RESP ||  75+ || 6.62
|----
|| Mediterranean||  TOTAL ||  15-64 || 0.92
|----
|| Mediterranean||  TOTAL ||  65-74 || 2.13
|----
|| Mediterranean||  TOTAL ||  75+ || 4.22
|----
|| Mediterranean||  CVD ||  15-64 || 0.57
|----
|| Mediterranean||  CVD ||  65-74 || 1.92
|----
|| Mediterranean||  CVD ||  75+ || 4.66
|----
|| Mediterranean||  RESP ||  15-64 || 1.54
|----
|| Mediterranean||  RESP ||  65-74 || 3.37
|----
|| Mediterranean||  RESP ||  75+ || 8.10
|----
|}
|}


=== Causality ===


List of upstream variables.
Temperature threshold:
The variables can be listed used descriptive (free-format) names or unambiguous identifiers
* standard threshold (29.4 °C)
(e.g. [[Analytica]] IDs).
* high threshold (32.4 °C)
* low threshold (25.7 °C)
 
=== Dependencies ===
 


=== Unit ===
=== Unit ===


Unit in which the result is expressed.
1/°C (log(RR) per 1 °C increase in the ambient temperature above the threshold)


=== Formula ===
=== Formula ===


Algebra or other explicit methods if possible
coefficient = ln(ERF of heat on mortality/100 + 1)
(e.g. [[Analytica]] code between the <nowiki>''<anacode></anacode>''</nowiki> delimiters).
incremental exposure = heat exposure - heat exposure baseline


== Result ==
== Result ==


If possible, a numerical expression or distribution.
 


==See also==
==See also==


Links to relevant information that does not belong to ''Definition''.
*[http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2759912/ Basu R. 2009. High ambient temperature and mortality: a review of epidemiologic studies from 2001 to 2008. Environ Health. 2009; 8: 40.]
* Liqun Liu, Susanne Breitner, Xiaochuan Pan, Ulrich Franck, Arne M Leitte, Alfred Wiedensohler, Stephanie von Klot, H-Erich Wichmann, Annette Peters and Alexandra Schneider. Associations between air temperature and cardio-respiratory mortality in the urban area of Beijing, China: a time-series analysis. Environmental Health 2011, 10: 51. {{doi|10.1186/1476-069X-10-51}} Published: 25 May 2011.


==References==
==References==
Will appear here automatically, if cited above using the ''<nowiki><ref></ref></nowiki>'' tags.
Additional references can also be listed here.


<references/>
<references/>

Latest revision as of 11:27, 26 March 2012



TODO: {{#todo:There is an overlap between this page and ERF of ambient temperature on mortality. These should be merged. I prefer the latter name.|Virpi Kollanus, Teemu Rintala|Intarese}}


Scope

Exposure-response relationship for short-term ambient heat exposure and mortality.

Dimensions and boundaries relevant for the variable

  • Cause of death
  • Country/other geographic area (differences in heat exposure/effects due to climate, physiological, cultural or behavioral factors)
  • Age of exposed population

Definition

Data

PHEWE-project [1]

Meta-analytical percent changes in mortality by age-group with 1oC increase in maximum apparent temperature above the city-specific threshold temperature in European cities


Mediterranean cities North-continental cities
Cause of death Age (years) % change 95% Cl % change 95% Cl
All natural causes All 3.12 0.60, 5.73 1.84 0.06, 3.64
15-64 0.92 -1.29, 3.13 1.31 -0.94, 3.72
65-74 2.13 -0.42, 4.74 1.65 -0.51, 3.89
75+ 4.22 1.33, 7.20 2.07 0.24, 3.89
Cardiovascular All 3.70 0.36, 7.04 2.44 -0.09, 5.32
15-64 0.57 -2.47, 3.83 1.04 -2.20, 4.92
65-74 1.92 -1.49, 5.35 1.50 -1.12, 4.62
75+ 4.66 1.13, 8.18 2.55 -0.24, 5.51
Respiratory All 6.71 2.43, 11.26 6.10 2.46, 11.08
15-64 1.54 -3.68, 7.22 3.02 -1.55, 7.42
65-74 3.37 -1.46, 8.22 3.90 -0.16, 8.92
75+ 8.10 3.24, 13.37 6.62 3.04, 11.42
  • Meta-analytical estimates are based studies in the following cities:
    • Mediterranean cities: Athens, Rome, Barcelona, Valencia, Turin, Milan, Lubljana
    • North-continental cities: Prague, Budapest, Zurich, Paris, Helsinki, Stockholm, London, Dublin
  • Based on climate and mortality data for the period 1990-2000
  • Exposure assessment: daily maximum apparent outdoor air temperature (nearest airport weather station of each city)

Maud's interpretation of PHEWE[2].

ERF of heat on mortality.
Region Cause of death Age % change per 1 degree above threshold
Nothern continental TOTAL 15-64 1.31
Nothern continental TOTAL 65-74 1.65
Nothern continental TOTAL 75+ 2.07
Nothern continental CVD 15-64 1.04
Nothern continental CVD 65-74 1.50
Nothern continental CVD 75+ 2.55
Nothern continental RESP 15-64 3.02
Nothern continental RESP 65-74 3.90
Nothern continental RESP 75+ 6.62
Mediterranean TOTAL 15-64 0.92
Mediterranean TOTAL 65-74 2.13
Mediterranean TOTAL 75+ 4.22
Mediterranean CVD 15-64 0.57
Mediterranean CVD 65-74 1.92
Mediterranean CVD 75+ 4.66
Mediterranean RESP 15-64 1.54
Mediterranean RESP 65-74 3.37
Mediterranean RESP 75+ 8.10


Temperature threshold:

  • standard threshold (29.4 °C)
  • high threshold (32.4 °C)
  • low threshold (25.7 °C)

Dependencies

Unit

1/°C (log(RR) per 1 °C increase in the ambient temperature above the threshold)

Formula

coefficient = ln(ERF of heat on mortality/100 + 1) incremental exposure = heat exposure - heat exposure baseline

Result

See also

References

  1. ↑ Baccini M, Biggeri A, Accetta G, Kosatsky T, Katsouyanni K, Analitis A, Ross Anderson H, Bisanti L, D'Ippoliti D, Danova J, Forsberg B, Medina S, Paldy A, Rabczenko D, Schindler C & Michelozzi P. 2008. Heat Effects on Mortality in 15 European Cities. Epidemiology, 15: 711-719.
  2. ↑ Baccini et al 2008 Epidemiology, vol 19, number 5, pp. 711-719
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