Prices of fuels in heat production: Difference between revisions

Latest revision as of 12:15, 10 November 2015

This page is a knowledge crystal of subtype variable. The page identifier is Op_en4151
Moderator:Jouni (see all)

Upload data {{#opasnet_base_link:Op_en4151}}

Question

What are prices of fuel used in heat production in own heating systems in apartments and in plants in Finland?

Answer

Prices of fuels in heat production without tax.

An example code for fetching and running the ovariable.

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## This code is Op_en4151/ on page [[Prices of fuels in heat production]].

library(OpasnetUtils)

objects.latest("Op_en4151", code_name="fuelPrice")

oprint(EvalOutput(fuelPrice))

Rationale

This page contains prices for electricity, district heating, liquid fuels and consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and domestic fuels in heat production in Finland. all data is based on knowledge of Statistics Finland In the end of data section there will be also data for maintenance and investment costs!!

This code calculates the price of fuels including tax.

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library(OpasnetUtils)

fuelPrice <- Ovariable(
	"fuelPrice",
	dependencies = data.frame(
		Name = c("fuelPriceRaw", "fuelTax"),
		Ident = c("Op_en4151/fuelPriceRaw", "Op_en4151/fuelTax")
	),
	formula = function(...){
		out <- fuelPriceRaw
		out$Result <- 0 #result(out)
		out <- merge(out, Ovariable(output = data.frame(Tax = unique(fuelTax$Tax)), marginal = TRUE))
		time <- as.POSIXct(strptime(paste("1.1.", as.character(out$Time), sep = ""), format = "%d.%m.%Y"))
		for (i in 1:nrow(out@output)) {
			temp <- merge(out[i,colnames(out@output) != "Time"], fuelTax)
			if (nrow(temp@output) > 0) out$Result[i] <- temp$fuelTaxResult[which.min(abs(temp$Time - time[i]))]
		}
		out <- oapply(out, NULL, sum, "Tax")
		
		out <- out + fuelPriceRaw
		
		levels(out$Fuel)[levels(out$Fuel) == "Electricity"] <- "Electricity_taxed"
		out@output <- orbind(out, fuelPriceRaw[fuelPriceRaw$Fuel == "Electricity",])
		result(out)[is.na(result(out))] <- out$fuelPriceRawResult[is.na(result(out))]
		return(out)
	}
)

objects.store(fuelPrice)

Prices of fuels without tax

A previous version was based on several info sources [1]. However, this resulted in inconsistent prices between fuels. Now the table is simplified and made more robust using IEA estimates VTT-R-03704-14_YDINPAP_(1) page 8, with the cost of accuracy. There should be an expert panel discussing the interdependencies of fuel prices to get the correct order.

Fuel prices(€ /MWh)
Obs	Fuel	1985	1995	2005	2015	2025	2035	2045	2055	2065	Description
1	Coal	8.5	9.41	13.78	20	15	15	15	15	15
2	Gas	9.1	11.6	16.2	42.9	40	40	40	40	40
3	Natural gas	9.1	11.6	16.2	42.9	40	40	40	40	40	Same as gas.
4	Oil	14.3	25	32	52	54	61	68	75	82
5	Crude oil	14.3	25	32	52	54	61	68	75	82	Same as oil.
6	Fuel oil	14.3	25	32	52	54	61	68	75	82	Same as oil.
7	Heavy oil	14.3	25	32	52	54	61	68	75	82	Same as oil.
8	Light oil	16	28	35	55	57	64	72	79	86	Slightly higher than oil.
9	Bio	9	10	11	21	28	35	45	57	76
10	Biofuel	9	10	11	21	28	35	45	57	65	Same as bio.
11	Peat	6.6	8	9.8	17	21	28	35	45	50
12	Electricity	40	40	40	40	42	55	58	60	65
13	Heat	30.8	30.8	40.4	53.99	63	63	65	65	68
14	Cooling	30.8	30.8	40.4	53.99	63	63	65	65	68	Same as heat

All prices are in 2015 euros.

Coal, Gas/Natural Gas, Light oil and Bio/Biofuel and Peat data from Statistics Finland^[1]. Bio/Biofuel stands for wood chips.

Oil prices from U.S. Energy Information Administration^[2]. All values converted first to 2015 dollars (inflation correction) and then to 2015 euros using the current (21.7.2015) exchange ratio of 1 $ = 0.923 €. Price per barrel then converted to price per MWh presuming that the energy released by burning one barrel is about 5.8 x 10⁶ BTU = 1.7 MWh, U.S. Internal Revenue Service^[3].

Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) for Coal, Gas/Natural Gas, Oil, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Heavy oil and Light oil from U.S. Energy Information Administration's "Annual Energy Outlook 2015 with projections to 2040" ^[4]. CAGR for Bio/Biofuel and Peat estimated to be 2 %, based on the price history.

Price of electricity [2].D↷

District heating data is based on the price for an apartment building (volume 10 000 m3, energy need 450 MWh/a). Data from Statistics Finland [3]. We assume that the price of district cooling is the same (although district cooling has been available only for a few years).

Uncertainties are assumed in the same way for all fuels: a certain percentage up and down from the best estimate, varying by year. The following uncertainties were used: 2025 5 %, 2035 10 %, 2045 15 %, 2055 20 %, 2065 30 %. It should be noted that uncertainties are different for different fuels, but we were unable to estimate fuel-specific uncertainties.

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## This is code Op_en4151/fuelPriceRaw on page Prices of fuels in heat production
library(OpasnetUtils)

fuelPriceRaw <- Ovariable("fuelPriceRaw", ddata = "Op_en4151", subset = "Fuel prices")

objects.store(fuelPriceRaw)
cat("Ovariable fuelPriceRaw stored.\n")

Taxes for different fuels

Show details

Taxes of fuels(c€/l,c€/l,c€/l,c€/l,c€/kg,€/t,€/MWh,€/MWh,€/MWh,c€/kWh)
Obs	Time	Tax	Petrol	Diesel	Light fuel oil	Heavy fuel oil	Coal	Natural gas	Peat	Electricity
1	1.9.1990	Product tax	21.53	16.82	0.34	0.34	2.69	0.17	0.34
2	1.1.1991	Product tax	26.57	17.49	0.35	0.35	2.83	0.18	0.35
3	1.1.1992	Product tax	28.26	17.49	0.35	0.35	2.83	0.18	0.35
4	1.8.1992	Product tax	31.62	17.49	0.35	0.35	2.83	0.18	0.35
5	1.1.1993	Product tax	39.52	19.17	1.41	1.12	5.61	0.35	0.70	0.25
6	1.7.1993	Product tax	39.52	16.65	1.41	1.12	5.61	0.35	0.70	0.25
7	1.1.1994	Product tax	40.05	17.29	2.05	1.98	11.30	1.09	0.35
8	1.1.1995	Product tax	45.12	27.50	3.02	3.12	19.53	0.94	0.59
9	1.1.1996	Product tax	51.85	27.50	3.02	3.12	19.53	0.94	0.59
10	1.1.1997	Product tax	51.85	27.50	4.88	3.72	28.42	1.19	0.71	0.40
11	1.4.1997	Product tax	51.85	27.50	4.88	3.72	28.42	1.19	0.71	0.24
12	1.1.1998	Product tax	55.22	30.02	5.50	4.34	33.40	1.40	0.82	0.34
13	1.9.1998	Product tax	55.22	30.02	6.37	5.40	41.37	1.73	1.51	0.42
14	1.1.2003	Product tax	58.08	31.59	6.71	5.68	43.52	1.82	1.59	0.44
15	1.7.2005	Product tax	58.08	31.59	6.71	5.68	43.52	1.82		0.44
16	1.1.2007	Product tax	58.08	31.59	6.71	5.68	43.52	1.82		0.22
17	1.1.2008	Product tax	62.02	36.05	8.35	6.42	49.32	2.016		0.25
18	1.1.2011	Product tax	62.02	36.05	15.70	18.51	126.91	8.94	1.90	0.69
19	1.1.2012	Product tax	64.36	46.60	15.70	18.51	126.91	8.940	1.90	0.69
20	1.1.2013	Product tax	64.36	46.60	15.99	18.93	131.53	11.38	4.90	0.69
21	1.1.2014	Product tax	66.61	49.31	15.99	18.93	131.53	11.38	4.90	0.69
22	1.1.2015	Product tax	66.61	49.31	15.99	18.93	153.24	15.36	3.40	0.69
23	1.1.2011	Energy content tax	50.36		7.70	8.79	54.54	3.00
24	1.1.2012	Energy content tax	50.36	30.70	7.70	8.79	54.54	3.00
25	1.1.2013	Energy content tax	50.36	30.70	6.65	7.59	47.10	4.45
26	1.1.2015	Energy content tax	50.36	30.70	6.65	7.59	47.10	6.65
27	1.1.2011	Carbon dioxide tax	11.66		8.00	9.72	72.37	5.94
28	1.1.2012	Carbon dioxide tax	14.00	15.90	8.00	9.72	72.37	5.94
29	1.1.2013	Carbon dioxide tax	14.00	15.90	9.34	11.34	84.43	6.93
30	1.1.2014	Carbon dioxide tax	16.25	18.61	9.34	11.34	84.43	6.93
31	1.1.2015	Carbon dioxide tax	16.25	18.61	9.34	11.34	106.14	8.71
32	1.1.2011	Energy tax							1.90	0.69
33	1.1.2013	Energy tax							4.90	0.69
34	1.1.2014	Energy tax							4.90	0.69
35	1.1.2015	Energy tax							3.40	0.69
36	1.7.1984	Maintenance and supply security fees	0.72	0.39	0.39	0.32	1.48
37	1.1.1997	Maintenance and supply security fees	0.68	0.35	0.35	0.28	1.18	0.084		0.013
38	1.1.1990	Oil pollution fees	0.28	0.031	0.031	0.037
39	1.1.2005	Oil pollution fees	0.038	0.042	0.042	0.050
40	1.1.2010	Oil pollution fees	0.113	0.126	0.126	0.150

**Taxes and fees for fuel and energy production^[5]**
Taxes and fees from	Petrol (snt/l)	Diesel (snt/l)	Light fuel oil (snt/l)	Heavy fuel oil (snt/kg)	Coal (€/t)	Natural gas (€/MWh)	Peat (€/MWh)
1.1.1990	21,53	16,82	0,34	0,34	2,69	0,17	0,34
1.1.1991	26,57	17,49	0,35	0,35	2,83	0,18	0,35
1.1.1992	28,26	17,49	0,35	0,35	2,83	0,18	0,35
1.8.1992	31,62	17,49	0,35	0,35	2,83	0,18	0,35
1.1.1993	39,52	19,17	1,41	1,12	5,61	0,35	0,70
1.7.1993	39,52	16,65	1,41	1,12	5,61	0,35	0,70
1.1.1994	40,05	17,29	2,05	1,98	11,30	1,09	0,35
1.1.1995	45,12	27,50	3,02	3,12	19,53	0,94	0,59
1.1.1996	51,85	27,50	3,02	3,12	19,53	0,94	0,59
1.1.1997	51,85	27,50	4,88	3,72	28,42	1,19	0,71
1.4.1997	51,85	27,50	4,88	3,72	28,42	1,19	0,71
1.1.1998	55,22	30,02	5,50	4,34	33,40	1,40	0,82
1.9.1998	55,22	30,02	6,37	5,40	41,37	1,73	1,51
1.1.2003	58,08	31,59	6,71	5,68	43,52	1,82	1,59
1.7.2005	58,08	31,59	6,71	5,68	43,52	1,82	-
1.1.2007	58,08	31,59	6,71	5,68	43,52	1,82	-
1.1.2008	62,02	36,05	8,35	6,42	49,32	2,016	-
1.1.2011	62,02	36,05	15,70	18,51	126,91	8,94	1,90
1.1.2012	64,36	46,60	15,70	18,51	126,91	8,940	1,90
1.1.2013	64,36	46,60	15,99	18,93	131,53	11,38	4,90
1.1.2014	66,61	49,31	15,99	18,93	131,53	11,38	4,90
1.1.2015	66,61	49,31	15,99	18,93	153,24	15,36	3,40
Energy content tax
1.1.2011	50,36	-	7,70	8,79	54,54	3,00	-
1.1.2012	50,36	30,70	7,70	8,79	54,54	3,00	-
1.1.2013	50,36	30,70	6,65	7,59	47,10	4,45	-
1.1.2015	50,36	30,70	6,65	7,59	47,10	6,65	-
Carbondioxide tax
1.1.2011	11,66	-	8,00	9,72	72,37	5,94	-
1.1.2012	14,00	15,90	8,00	9,72	72,37	5,94	-
1.1.2013	14,00	15,90	9,34	11,34	84,43	6,93	-
1.1.2014	16,25	18,61	9,34	11,34	84,43	6,93	-
1.1.2015	16,25	18,61	9,34	11,34	106,14	8,71	-
Energy tax
1.1.2011	-	-	-	-	-	-	1,90
1.1.2013	-	-	-	-	-	-	4,90
1.1.2014	-	-	-	-	-	-	4,90
1.1.2015	-	-	-	-	-	-	3,40
Maintenance and supply sercurity fees
1.7.1984	0,72	0,39	0,39	0,32	1,48	-	-
1.1.1997	0,68	0,35	0,35	0,28	1,18	0,084	-
Oil pollution fees
1.1.1990	0,28	0,031	0,031	0,037	-	-	-
1.1.2005	0,038	0,042	0,042	0,050	-	-	-
1.1.2010	0,113	0,126	0,126	0,150	-	-	-

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library(OpasnetUtils)

fuelTaxRaw <- Ovariable("fuelTaxRaw", ddata = "Op_en4151.taxes_of_fuels")

fuelTax <- Ovariable(
	"fuelTax",
	dependencies = data.frame(Name = "fuelTaxRaw"),#, Ident = "Op_en4151/fuelTaxRaw"),
	formula = function(...) {
		#taxes <- fuelTaxRaw
		#taxes$Result <- as.numeric(as.character(taxes$Result))
		
		#units <- c("c€/l","c€/l","c€/l","c€/kg","€/t","€/MWh","c€/kWh")
		#taxes$Units <- units
				
		# convert units into €/MWh
		# energy densities/specific energies from
		# http://webserver.dmt.upm.es/~isidoro/bk3/c15/Fuel%20properties.pdf
		# and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density
		conversion <- c(
				1/32.4*60*60/100, 
				1/35.8*60*60/100, 
				1/35.8*60*60/100, 
				1/43*60*60/100, 
				1/24/1000*60*60, 
				1, 
				1,
				1,
				10
		)
		fuels <- c("Petrol", "Diesel", "Light fuel oil", "Heavy fuel oil", "Coal", "Natural gas", "Peat", "Biofuel", "Electricity")
		conversion <- Ovariable(
			output = data.frame(
				Fuel = fuels,
				Result = conversion
			)
		)
		#taxes$Result <- taxes$Result * conversion
		taxes <- fuelTaxRaw * conversion
		
		alias <- Ovariable(output = data.frame(
			Fuel = rep(fuels, c(0,0,1,4,0,2,0,2,0)), 
			Fuel2 = c("Light oil", "Oil", "Crude oil", "Fuel oil", "Heavy oil", "Natural gas", "Gas", "Biofuel", "Bio")
		))
		taxes <- merge(taxes, alias, all.x = TRUE)
		temp <- as.character(taxes$Fuel2)
		temp[is.na(temp)] <- as.character(taxes$Fuel[is.na(temp)])
		taxes$Fuel <- temp
		taxes$Fuel2 <- NULL
		
		taxes <- taxes[!is.na(result(taxes)),]
		taxes <- taxes[!taxes$Tax %in% c("Energy content tax", "Carbon dioxide tax"),]
		#taxes <- oapply(taxes, NULL, sum, "Tax")
		taxes$Time  <- as.POSIXct(strptime(as.character(taxes$Time), format = "%d.%m.%Y"))
		
		return(taxes)
	}
)

objects.store(fuelTaxRaw, fuelTax)

Data not used

This section contains data that is important but not relevant to the model's calculations, so they were never used in the calculations. This includes the price of district heating, types of energy consumer by building and prices of electricity and more accurate data of the prices fuels over the past years.

Linear Programming for the Malmquist Productivity Growth Index [4] is a method to make uncertain prediction into the future based on existing trend data. ----#: . Maybe this should be used for fuel price predictions. --Jouni (talk) 12:15, 10 November 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Show details

Price of district heating

Table 1. Price of District Heating by Type of Consumer¹⁾, €/MWh

Date	Type of Consumer
	Detached house	Semidetached house (rivitalo)	Apartment building, small	Apartment building	Apartment building, large
1.1.1996	35.37	32.31	31.89	30.80	28.19
1.7.1996	35.55	32.71	31.96	31.13	28.49
1.1.1997	36.41	33.62	32.88	31.99	29.42
1.7.1997	36.55	33.82	32.83	32.09	29.60
1.1.1998	37.30	34.63	33.62	32.71	30.22
1.7.1998	37.35	34.38	33.50	33.07	30.17
1.1.1999	37.83	34.81	34.21	32.91	30.59
1.7.1999	37.94	34.95	34.34	32.98	30.53
1.1.2000	38.18	35.55	35.08	33.76	30.95
1.7.2000	38.62	36.35	35.89	34.55	31.55
1.1.2001	40.42	38.60	38.08	36.77	33.49
1.7.2001	41.17	39.39	38.35	37.24	34.09
1.1.2002	42.11	40.09	39.30	37.73	34.66
1.7.2002	42.60	40.54	39.63	38.11	35.20
1.1.2003	43.75	40.94	40.11	38.64	35.33
1.7.2003	43.97	41.05	40.20	38.62	35.52
1.1.2004	44.68	41.27	40.49	38.22	35.59
1.7.2004	44.50	41.93	41.03	38.85	36.25
1.1.2005	46.59	43.11	42.29	40.34	37.99
1.7.2005	46.67	43.40	42.66	40.68	38.18
1.1.2006	49.33	46.35	45.52	43.11	40.51
1.7.2006	49.93	47.42	46.49	44.20	41.56
1.1.2007	51.59	48.08	47.43	45.11	42.49
1.7.2007	51.92	48.95	47.71	45.44	42.76
1.1.2008	54.89	52.02	50.68	48.40	45.51
1.7.2008	55.92	53.45	52.01	49.85	47.22
1.1.2009	61.91	58.96	57.87	55.76	53.22
1.7.2009	69.25	63.45	62.68	60.77	58.47
1.1.2010	71.62	65.72	64.96	62.87	60.28

¹⁾ The above price data represent overall prices, including the various charges collected ('energy' charge, 'basic' charge, value added tax 22% etc.). The prices are averages for each type of consumer, weighted by the number of consumers served by the plants members of the Association of Finnish Energy Industries / District Heating.

Table 2. Type of consumer. Source: Finnish Energy Industries

Type of consumer	Building volume, m3	Energy consumption, MWh/a
Detached house	500	20
Semidetached house	2 000	100
Apartment building, small	5 000	225
Apartment building	10 000	450
Apartment building, big	25 000	1 125

Price of electricity

Table 3. Price of Electricity by Type of Consumer¹⁾, c/kWh (Prices include electrical energy, the distribution of electricity, and taxes.)

Date	Household		Farm	Electric Heating
	Flat	Detached House		Direct	Accumulating
1.4.1999	9.67	8.59	8.09	6.49	5.57
1.7.1999	9.57	8.58	8.04	6.44	5.52
1.9.1999	9.52	8.53	7.99	6.42	5.50
1.11.1999	9.50	8.51	7.97	6.41	5.48
1.1.2000	9.47	8.48	7.93	6.37	5.47
1.4.2000	9.45	8.46	7.90	6.35	5.45
1.7.2000	9.44	8.44	7.83	6.33	5.44
1.9.2000	9.44	8.41	7.79	6.31	5.43
1.11.2000	9.47	8.41	7.79	6.30	5.41
1.1.2001	9.48	8.42	7.78	6.30	5.42
1.4.2001	9.50	8.43	7.77	6.31	5.43
1.7.2001	9.77	8.64	7.97	6.44	5.57
1.9.2001	9.92	8.75	8.10	6.58	5.73
1.11.2001	10.04	8.84	8.18	6.66	5.81
1.1.2002	10.11	8.90	8.25	6.75	5.92
1.4.2002	10.14	8.92	8.26	6.77	5.94
1.7.2002	10.18	8.94	8.29	6.78	5.96
1.9.2002	10.34	9.05	8.38	6.80	5.98
1.11.2002	10.39	9.08	8.41	6.82	6.01
1.1.2003	10.77	9.38	8.65	7.08	6.25
1.4.2003	11.60	9.98	9.23	7.75	6.89
1.7.2003	11.63	9.96	9.28	7.79	6.94
1.9.2003	11.66	9.99	9.30	7.80	6.95
1.11.2003	11.71	10.05	9.36	7.83	6.98
1.1.2004	11.77	10.10	9.43	7.88	7.05
1.4.2004	11.60	9.90	9.28	7.73	6.94
1.7.2004	11.56	9.85	9.25	7.69	6.90
1.9.2004	11.56	9.85	9.24	7.68	6.90
1.11.2004	11.54	9.82	9.22	7.65	6.87
1.1.2005	11.52	9.81	9.22	7.66	6.89
1.4.2005	11.37	9.69	9.12	7.57	6.84
1.7.2005	11.28	9.63	9.08	7.52	6.80
1.9.2005	11.44	9.74	9.18	7.66	6.94
1.11.2005	11.57	9.83	9.26	7.74	7.01
1.1.2006	11.76	9.97	9.40	7.90	7.18
1.4.2006	11.79	10.01	9.44	7.97	7.24
1.7.2006	12.00	10.17	9.59	8.13	7.41
1.9.2006	12.25	10.42	9.82	8.31	7.55
1.11.2006	12.31	10.47	9.88	8.36	7.59
1.1.2007	12.53	10.69	10.10	8.56	7.78
1.4.2007	12.45	10.59	9.99	8.47	7.72
1.7.2007	12.35	10.51	9.92	8.38	7.64
1.9.2007	12.40	10.57	9.98	8.45	7.71
1.11.2007	12.56	10.72	10.11	8.49	7.75
1.1.2008	13.16	11.29	10.64	9.10	8.35
1.4.2008	13.30	11.56	10.94	9.41	8.68
1.7.2008	13.67	11.78	11.15	9.58	8.86
1.9.2008	13.96	12.05	11.41	9.91	9.19
1.11.2008	14.21	12.29	11.64	10.15	9.45
1.1.2009	14.61	12.45	11.77	10.25	9.52
1.4.2009	14.91	12.51	11.82	10.30	9.56
1.7.2009	15.04	12.59	11.91	10.25	9.49
1.9.2009	14.86	12.43	11.74	10.12	9.36
1.11.2009	14.65	12.60	11.92	10.33	9.60

¹⁾ The prices are tax-inclusive averages weighted by the sales volumes of liable electricity retailers. On 1 January 1997, taxes on the energy sources of electricity generation were abandoned, while taxes and a precautionary stock fee on electricity consumption were taken into use.

Types of consumer(Source: Energy Market Authority (Electricity Market Authority)):

1. Apartment house, consumption 2 000 kWh/a, fuse 1 x 25 A

2. Detached house 5 000 kWh/a, 3 x 25 A

3. Agriculture 10 000 kWh/a, 3 x 35 A

4. Detached house, direct electric heating, 18 000 kWh/a (whereof 8 000 kWh by night), 3 x 25 A

5. Detached house, partly accumulating electric heating, 20 000 kWh/a (whereof 14 400 kWh by night), 3 x 25 A

6. Small-scale industry, 1-shift enterprise, 150 MWh/a (whereof 35 MWh by night), charged capacity 75 kW, effective time of capacity use 2 000 h/a

7. Medium-scale industry, 2-shift, 2 000 MWh/a (whereof 625 MWh by night),500 kW, 4 000 h

8. Medium-scale industry, 2-shift, 10 000 MWh/a (whereof 3 130 MWh by night), 2 500 kW, 4 000 h

Prices of domestic fuels

Table 4. Consumer Prices of Hard Coal, Natural Gas and Domestic Fuels in Heat Production (VAT not included)

	Hard Coal¹⁾		Natural Gas²⁾			Milled peat³⁾	Sod Peat³⁾		Fuel Chips⁴⁾	Forest Chips⁵⁾	Wood pellet⁶⁾
Month	On the Coast				Quarter	Delivered	At Production Site	Delivered	Delivered	Delivered	Consumer price (incl. VAT)	Index
	€/t	€/MWh	€/1000 m3 (0° C)	€/MWh		€/MWh	€/MWh	€/MWh	€/MWh	€/MWh	c/kWh	2005=100
9/1999	70.66	9.97	118.57	11.85	Q3/1999	8.98	6.92	8.96	7.57
12/1999	73.05	10.30	124.29	12.44	Q4/1999	8.93	6.98	9.05	7.74
3/2000	73.66	10.39	128.50	12.85	Q1/2000	8.88	7.07	9.12	7.74
6/2000	76.33	10.77	127.82	12.78	Q2/2000	8.87	6.97	9.08	7.74
9/2000	79.18	11.17	133.04	13.31	Q3/2000	8.93	6.99	9.18	7.74
12/2000	84.31	11.89	163.82	16.38	Q4/2000	9.01	7.09	9.28	7.74
3/2001	83.08	11.72	163.98	16.39	Q1/2001	9.13	7.16	9.44	8.07
6/2001	91.72	12.94	158.10	15.82	Q2/2001	9.21	7.27	9.54	8.20
9/2001	88.27	12.45	158.26	15.82	Q3/2001	9.21	7.27	8.97	8.13
12/2001	87.61	12.36	156.75	15.68	Q4/2001	9.16	7.44	9.32	8.40
3/2002	89.01	12.55	149.79	14.98	Q1/2002	9.17	7.52	9.41	9.00
6/2002	81.98	11.56	151.85	15.19	Q2/2002	9.19	7.52	9.46	9.08
9/2002	78.78	11.11	154.66	15.47	Q3/2002	9.05	7.57	9.11	9.01
12/2002	79.91	11.27	156.74	15.67	Q4/2002	9.17	7.62	9.57	9.37
3/2003	81.42	11.48	162.54	16.25	Q1/2003	9.28	7.73	9.73	9.85
6/2003	78.13	11.02	160.84	16.08	Q2/2003	9.27	7.73	9.75	9.95
9/2003	81.37	11.48	157.64	15.76	Q3/2003	9.49	8.03	10.08	10.12
12/2003	82.04	11.57	156.44	15.64	Q4/2003	9.35	8.01	9.97	9.82
3/2004	84.88	11.97	151.64	15.16	Q1/2004	9.37	8.04	10.05	9.73
6/2004	94.93	13.39	152.84	15.28	Q2/2004	9.37	8.05	10.00	9.63
9/2004	95.98	13.54	158.04	15.80	Q3/2004	9.65	8.50	10.63	9.63
12/2004	94.98	13.40	160.84	16.08	Q4/2004	9.70	8.60	10.93	10.19
3/2005	97.72	13.78	162.24	16.22	Q1/2005	9.78	8.69	11.24	10.64
6/2005	94.33	13.30	169.64	16.96	Q2/2005	9.81	8.68	11.23	10.62
9/2005	94.63	13.35	181.64	18.16	Q3/2005	8.15	7.05	9.57	10.56
12/2005	95.77	13.51	194.14	19.41	Q4/2005	8.05	7.22	10.21	10.51
3/2006	95.25	13.43	226.94	22.69	Q1/2006	8.13	7.36	10.59	11.41
6/2006	93.65	13.21	227.84	22.78	Q2/2006	8.13	7.48	10.95	11.50
9/2006	98.80	13.94	226.94	22.69	Q3/2006	8.24	7.49	10.96	11.53
12/2006	101.34	14.29	228.84	22.88	Q4/2006	8.13	7.46	10.85	11.82
3/2007	97.92	13.81	216.54	21.65	Q1/2007	8.26	7.79	11.54	12.22	12.66
6/2007	96.81	13.65	218.54	21.85	Q2/2007	8.30	7.82	11.61	12.32	12.81
9/2007	98.90	13.95	226.44	22.64	Q3/2007	8.53	7.92	11.71	12.43	12.79
12/2007	109.76	15.48	243.04	24.30	Q4/2007	8.52	7.95	11.76	..	13.21
3/2008	128.52	18.13	264.80	26.48	Q1/2008	8.47	8.72	12.58	..	13.41
6/2008	139.48	19.67	284.40	28.44	Q2/2008	8.47	8.72	12.58	..	13.94
9/2008	152.95	21.57	318.40	31.84	Q3/2008	10.92	8.72	13.30	..	14.05
12/2008	163.64	23.11	319.60	31.96	Q4/2008	10.94	..	13.34	..	15.16	4.81	151.6
3/2009	126.21	17.83	281.50	28.15	Q1/2009	11.08	..	13.02	..	16.78	4.89	154.1
6/2009	110.96	15.67	253.60	25.36	Q2/2009	10.80	..	14.52	..	17.53	5.25	166.0
9/2009	106.10	14.99	267.10	26.71	Q3/2009	10.16	..	13.11		18.73	5,20 **	164,5 **
12/2009	103.63	14.64	280.40	28.04	Q4/2009	10.16	..	13.11		17.96	5.32	168.5

¹⁾ Hard coal: the price is based on the average import price (customs tariff CN 2701 12 90) plus taxes and charges as well as handling and transportation costs. Price on the coast: unloaded on wharf at customer's own harbour. Thermal value: 7,08 MWh/t.

²⁾ Natural gas: until 12/2000, average contract price. Since 3/2001, type of consumer T8, see table 7. The prices include an excise tax and a precautionary stock fee.Thermal value: 10,0 MWh/1000 m3.

³⁾ Peat: The prices are averages weighted by the deliveries of certain member companies of the Confederation of Peat Industries and, therefore, vary according to consumer dependingon the transportation distance and/or contract terms. The price of delivered peat includes a transportation distance of 100 km for milled peat and 50 km for sod peat. Until the second quarter of 2005 the prices include an excise tax, which applies to plants with an annual minimum peat consumption of 25 GWh. Thermal values: milled peat 0,9 MWh/m3, sod peat 1,4 MWh/m3.The price of delivered sod peat in the second quarter of 2008 is an estimate as there was not a sufficient number of deliveries.

⁴⁾ Fuel chips: Sample includes both forest residue chips and industrial wood residue chips. Delivered, transportation distance not specified. The prices are not valid for the whole country.

⁵⁾ Forest Chips: Enquiry definitions: Delivered, transportation distance 50 kilometres. Crushed stumps not included.Chipped/crushed product, sold on real markets (shipments within a corporate group not included). Nevertheless, includes small amounts of crushed stumps and unchipped shipments.

⁶⁾ Wood pellet for households, I-class, 6-8 mm, batch size 5 tons.

Source:Foreign Trade Statistics, Gasum Oy, Association of Finnish Peat Industries, Statistics Finland/ Environment and Energy

Cost of bioenergy is dependent on the form^[6]

Waste is assumed to be free
Agricultural residues have little market value currently and will likely remain half the price of energy wood
Estimated biomass price is 22 €/MWh in 2050 (plus 5-11€/MWh handling)
- Stumpage price currently 2 €/MWh
- Price to customer currently 9-23 €/MWh*
- Stricter sustainability criteria could raise this to about 50 €/MWh*
Energy wood price highly unlikely to exceed 50 €/MWh in 2050
Likely to be convergence between the price of energy wood and the price of pulpwood (stumpage price currently about 12 €/MWh)

Prices of liquid fuels

Table 5. Consumer Prices of Liquid Fuels (includes VAT)¹⁾

Month	Motor Gasoline	Diesel fuel	Light fuel oil		Heavy fuel oil
	c/l	c/l	c/l	€/MWh	c/kg	€/MWh
3/1998	95.0	65.9	26.9	27.0	18.0	15.8
6/1998	95.2	63.1	25.2	25.3	18.0	15.8
9/1998	94.9	62.9	25.9	26.0	18.1	15.8
12/1998	86.8	62.9	22.9	23.0	16.8	14.8
3/1999	92.2	63.1	25.9	26.0	17.7	15.5
6/1999	99.6	65.3	26.6	26.7	20.2	17.7
9/1999	104.9	70.8	32.1	32.3	24.8	21.7
12/1999	108.3	78.9	35.8	36.0	25.8	22.5
3/2000	114.0	83.1	38.7	38.9	30.4	26.6
6/2000	123.6	82.7	39.4	39.5	31.2	27.2
9/2000	117.4	91.7	54.2	54.4	34.3	30.1
12/2000	104.9	89.8	47.3	47.5	32.6	28.6
3/2001	111.2	82.2	40.4	40.6	27.9	24.4
6/2001	117.6	82.4	44.1	44.3	28.5	24.9
9/2001	112.5	82.4	42.9	43.1	28.6	25.1
12/2001	98.4	77.7	32.3	32.4	24.9	21.8
3/2002	103.3	77.9	37.3	37.5	27.3	23.9
6/2002	107.4	77.3	34.8	34.9	27.8	24.3
9/2002	111.2	79.6	39.2	39.4	30.8	27.0
12/2002	103.6	79.2	38.8	39.0	29.1	25.5
3/2003	114.0	95.0	49.1	49.3	33.1	29.0
6/2003	110.4	75.5	36.1	36.3	27.4	24.0
9/2003	109.2	78.0	36.1	36.3	28.6	25.0
12/2003	103.8	77.6	37.0	37.2	26.6	23.3
3/2004	110.6	79.9	39.5	39.4	27.1	23.7
6/2004	113.6	79.8	42.7	42.6	29.9	26.2
9/2004	116.5	88.0	48.3	48.2	29.3	25.7
12/2004	111.2	91.1	44.9	44.8	28.0	24.5
3/2005	112.7	93.4	54.3	54.2	33.7	29.6
6/2005	120.6	97.0	60.7	60.6	38.3	33.6
9/2005	135.1	104.4	66.0	65.8	45.5	39.8
12/2005	123.0	100.9	60.7	60.6	43.4	38.0
3/2006	124.4	101.8	63.7	63.6	45.4	39.8
6/2006	133.3	103.1	67.8	67.6	44.2	38.7
9/2006	126.3	101.6	62.3	62.2	40.5	35.5
12/2006	121.4	100.1	58.3	58.2	37.6	33.0
3/2007	126.4	98.8	58.1	58.0	38.1	33.3
6/2007	135.4	99.6	62.5	62.4	43.7	38.2
9/2007	131.4	101.7	67.1	66.9	45.4	39.8
12/2007	132.5	113.1	72.2	72.0	53.1	46.5
3/2008	141.9	125.7	84.4	84.2	53.9	47.2
6/2008	157.4	143.9	102.5	102.3	65.2	57.2
9/2008	149.9	133.1	88.7	88.5	61.8	54.1
12/2008	114.4	101.1	55.1	55.0	37.4	32.8
3/2009	119.6	93.1	52.2	52.1	36.1	31.7
6/2009	137.4	101.5	62.9	62.8	48.4	42.4
9/2009	131.9	99.8	61.3	61.2	50.3	44.1
12/2009	132.2	102.8	63.0	62.9	51.5	45.1

¹⁾ Motor gasoline, diesel oil and light fuel oil: weighted average of the prices on the 15th of the month in six localities (Helsinki, Mikkeli, Oulu, Rovaniemi, Seinäjoki and Turku).Heavy fuel oil: national monthly average. Source: Finnish Oil and Gas Federation

Unit

€/MWh

Summary

All results are averages of year 2009

Price of district heating by type of consumer (€/MWh)

	Type of Consumer
	Detached house	Semidetached house (rivitalo)	Apartment building, small	Apartment building	Apartment building, large
Year 2009 av.	65.58	61.21	60.28	58.27	55.85

Price of electricity (c/kWh)

	Household		Electric Heating
	Flat	Detached House	Direct	Accumulating
Year 2009 av.	14.81	12.52	10.25	9.51

Prices of domestic fuel

	Hard Coal		Natural Gas		Milled peat	Sod Peat	Forest Chips	Wood pellet
	On the Coast				Delivered	Delivered	Delivered	Consumer price (incl. VAT)	Index
	€/t	€/MWh	€/1000 m3 (0° C)	€/MWh	€/MWh	€/MWh	€/MWh	c/kWh	2005=100
Year 2009 av.	111.73	15.78	270.65	27.07	10.55	13.44	17.75	5.15	162.87

Price of liquid fuel

	Light fuel oil		Heavy fuel oil
	c/l	€/MWh	c/kg	€/MWh
Year 2009 av.	59.9	59.7	46.6	40.8

References

↑ Tilastokeskus (Statistics Finland). List of tables under the topic "Price of energy". http://pxweb2.stat.fi/database/statfin/ene/ehi/ehi_fi.asp
↑ U.S. Energy Information Administration: Spot prices for crude oil and petroleum products. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_PRI_SPT_S1_A.htm
↑ Internal revenue service: Nonconventional Source Fuel Credit, Inflation Adjustment Factor, and Reference Price http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-99-18.pdf
↑ U.S. Energy Information Administration: Annual Energy Outlook 2015 - With Projections to 2040. 2015. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2015).pdf
↑ Tilastokeskus (Statistics Finland): Energian hinnat 2015, 1. vuosineljännes. (Energy prices 2015, 1. quarter) http://tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehi/2015/01/
↑ Recarbonised Finnish Energy System, Christian Breyer, Michael Child

[1] Tilastokeskus (Statistics Finland). List of tables under the topic "Price of energy". http://pxweb2.stat.fi/database/statfin/ene/ehi/ehi_fi.asp

[2] U.S. Energy Information Administration: Spot prices for crude oil and petroleum products. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_PRI_SPT_S1_A.htm

[3] Internal revenue service: Nonconventional Source Fuel Credit, Inflation Adjustment Factor, and Reference Price http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-99-18.pdf

[4] U.S. Energy Information Administration: Annual Energy Outlook 2015 - With Projections to 2040. 2015. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2015).pdf

[5] Tilastokeskus (Statistics Finland): Energian hinnat 2015, 1. vuosineljännes. (Energy prices 2015, 1. quarter) http://tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehi/2015/01/

[6] Recarbonised Finnish Energy System, Christian Breyer, Michael Child

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

[5]

[6]

@@ Line 319: / Line 319: @@
 This section contains data that is important but not relevant to the model's calculations, so they were never used in the calculations. This includes the price of district heating, types of energy consumer by building and prices of electricity and more accurate data of the prices fuels over the past years.
+Linear Programming for the Malmquist Productivity Growth Index [http://ekqvist.goeuropeinfo.com/rbloggerqvist/?p=199] is a method to make uncertain prediction into the future based on existing trend data. {{comment|# |Maybe this should be used for fuel price predictions.|--[[User:Jouni|Jouni]] ([[User talk:Jouni|talk]]) 12:15, 10 November 2015 (UTC)}}
 {| class="wikitable collapsible collapsed"

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Prices of fuels in heat production: Difference between revisions

Latest revision as of 12:15, 10 November 2015

Contents

Question

Answer

Rationale

Prices of fuels without tax

Taxes for different fuels

Data not used

Unit

Summary

See also

References

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