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| See the main page of this assessment: [[Hämeenkyrö MSWI risk assessment: General]]
| | #REDIRECT[[Hämeenkyrö MSWI risk assessment: General]] |
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| ====PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions in Hämeenkyrö====
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| {{var
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| |Name = PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions in Hämeenkyrö
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| |Focus = Current PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions from all sources in Hämeenkyrö.
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| |Scope = Annual emissions. Emissions from the sources in Hämeenkyrö municipality area only.
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| |Description = PM<sub>2.5</sub> means particles with diameter less than 2,5 µm. Important sources of these fine particles are domestic combustion, traffic, industries and energy production. There are some quite large industries and power plants (e.g. M-Real Kyro cardboard factory, Finnforest Oyj sawmill and Kyro gas power plant) that also cause fine particle emissions.
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| |Inputs = Baseline PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure in Hämeenkyrö, Well-being of the population (smells, comfort, noise) {{Disclink|Well-being of local population is not an input to this variable}}
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| |Index = Indexed subvariables:
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| *emission (domestic combustion)
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| *emission (traffic)
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| *emission (M-real)
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| *emission (Finnforest)
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| *emission (Kyro power plant)
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| *emission (others)
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| |Definition = Total emissions = emission (domestic combustion) + emission (traffic) + emission (M-real) + emission (Finnforest) + emission (Kyro power plant) + emission (others)
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| |Unit = tonnes/year
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| |Result = The sum of the emissions from all the sources {{Disclink|Emissions should be given per sector}}
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| Traffic (2004) particles 11 t/y (mass of PM<sub>2.5</sub> ?)
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| Kyro power plant (2002) particles <0,1 t/y (mass of PM<sub>2.5</sub> ?)
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| |References = [[http://www.hameenkyro.fi| Hämeenkyrön kunta]]
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| [[http://lipasto.vtt.fi/lipasto/liisa/index.htm| VTT Liisa]]
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| Länsi-Suomen ympäristölupavirasto, Lupapäätös 48/2004/1
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| }}
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| ====PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions from MSWI====
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| {{var
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| |Name = PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions from MSWI
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| |Focus = Gives PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions for the three power plants according to their actual/planned production
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| |Scope = Annual PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions for each power plant.
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| |Description = This variable gives the PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions separately for each of the three power plant options to be considered in the Hämeenkyrö case. The emissions are calculated based on annual activities and exact technical configurations of the power plants. The technical data are entered in the FIRE (Factor Information Retrieval) software of the US EPA to obtain Emission Estimation Factors. The annual amounts of activity (in e.g. MWh/a or MSW burned/a) are then multiplied by the EF to get annual emissions from each plant. Note: This formulation leaves room for experimenting with adjustments in the power plants (e.g. if the amount of waste burned increases). Alternatively we can just use predetermined values and calculate one single annual emission figure for each plant.
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| ''(Comment: There might be ready-made plant-specific data in FRES-model. You could talk with Päivi (PM emissions from Hämeenkyrö) and Marko. In addition, the YVA of the MSWI plan, and the other plants, should be available. We should find some numbers that we can use to calculate the exposure.)''
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| |Inputs = Planned or projected activities for each power plant and exact technical configurations of the plants. No such variables are considered in this excercise but the connections are included in the master model. If these values are fixed, these factors can be included in the calculation of this present variable.
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| |Index = Indexed subvariables:
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| *MSWI
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| *biofuel plant
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| *natural gas plant
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| |Definition =
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| |Unit = tonnes/year
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| |Result =
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| |References = [[http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/eiip/pm25inventory/concepts.html| Here you can find and install the FIRE software among other things]]
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| }}
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| ====Intake fraction for PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions from Hämeenkyrö====
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| {{var
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| |Name = Intake fraction for PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions from Hämeenkyrö
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| |Focus = Intake fraction for PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions from Hämeenkyrö
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| |Scope = Emission from a high stack in Hämeenkyrö, exposed population anywhere in Europe. Exposure within one month from the emission.
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| |Description = Intake fraction (iF) means the fraction of an emission that is finally inhaled or ingested by a target population. There are several studies about estimates of iF for primary fine particles. These are often in the order of one in a million; values are higher for traffic than for other sources. Tainio and coworkers have estimated iFs for Finnish emissions derived from different source categories, including energy production plants.
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| Fine particles travel in the atmosphere for several days or weeks, and several hundred or thousand kilometres from the source. Therefore, most of the exposure occurs far from the source, unless the exposure very near (less than 100 m) is very intensive. In the case of a MSWI with a high stack, the exposure very near the source is negligible. This is especially true for secondary particles that only form in the atmosphere during several hours or days.
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| |Inputs =
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| |Index = Particle type
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| |Definition =
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| |Unit = -
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| |Result = Different particle types:
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| *0.6*10<sup>-6</sup> (primary particles)
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| *less clear but probably lower, maybe in the order of 0.1--0.5*10<sup>-6</sup> (secondary particles)
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| |References = Tainio et al., Kopra project. Fine-loppuseminaari 3/2006.
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| }}
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| ====Baseline PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure in Hämeenkyrö====
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| {{var
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| |Name = Baseline PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure in Hämeenkyrö
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| |Focus = Existing PM2.5 exposure in Hämeenkyrö
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| |Scope = annual emissions
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| |Description = Particular matters are a mixture of solid particles and liquid droplets in the air. PM2.5 is a particulate matter that is 2.5micrometers or smaller in size. PM2.5 exposure route is inhalation and the level of exposure dependents on level of PM2.5 consentartion in the air and the length of time spent indoors and outdoors. Personal exposure of individuals can be calculated using air pollution levels from environment, which are weighted with the time-activity pattern.
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| |Inputs =
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| This variable is linked to PM2.5 emissions in Hämeenkyrö, PM2.5 emissions from MSWI, biofuel plant, and natural gas plant in Hämeenkyrö, population size of Hämeenkyrö, Intake fraction for PM2.5 emissions in Hämeenkyrö, Pm2.5 exposure due to MSWI in Hämeenkyrö, PM2.5 exposure-response function on population level and Health effects of dioxins and PM2.5. {{Disclink| Inputs are the variables that affect this variable}}
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| |Index =
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| |Definition = Exposure to ambient-generated particles (Eag) e.g. PM2.5
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| E<sub>ag</sub> = C<sub>a</sub> * (F<sub>o</sub> + F<sub>i</sub> x F<sub>inf</sub>)
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| |Unit = ug/m3
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| |Result = E<sub>ag</sub> is dominated by home ventilation and are estimated from ambient concentrations (C<sub>a</sub>) multiplied by the fraction of time spent outdoors (F<sub>o</sub>) and the fraction of time spent indoors (F<sub>i</sub>) modified by the particle infiltration efficiency (F<sub>inf</sub>).(WHO, 2006.)
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| Mean personal daytime exposure in Helsinki were 8-11 ug/m3 (Koistinen 2002). In Europe average fairly uniform rural background concentrations were 11-13ug/m3,15-20 ug/m3 in urban background and 20-30 ug/m3 at traffic sites (WHO, 2006.).
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| |References = [[http://www.ktl.fi/attachments/suomi/julkaisut/julkaisusarja_a/2002a3.pdf| Koistinen Kimmo: Exposure of an Urban Adult Population to PM2.5. 2002.]]
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| [[http://www.who.dk/document/E88189.pdf| WHO: Health risks of particulate matter from long-range transboundary air pollution. 2006.]]
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| [[http://www.ehponline.org/members/2004/6980/6980.html]]
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| }}
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| ====PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure due to MSWI in Hämeenkyrö ====
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| {{var
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| |Name =
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| |Focus = Describes the variables affecting the personal exposure to MSWI-produced PM<sub>2.5</sub> (and links the exposure to dose)
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| |Scope = Exact numerical values would require knowledge of the meteorological, geographical etc. data of Hämeenkyrö area and extensive modeling so not included here; certain concentration assumed and dose calculated from it
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| |Description = Data needed to evaluate the personal exposure
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| # Data needed to model the PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration distribution around the MSWI:
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| ## The emission produced by MSWI
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| ## Stack height and location of MSWI in relation to municipality
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| ## Meteorological data: average (e.g. daily) temperatures, wind speeds and directions, solar radiation etc.
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| ## Geographical data: vegetation, elevations, town build, lakes etc.
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| ## ...
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| # Data needed to convert exposure to dose:
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| ## inhalable fraction of PM<sub>2.5</sub>
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| ## concentration of PM<sub>2.5</sub> around the person in the locations the person moves in
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| ## times spend in different locations
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| ## breathing rate of the person
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| ## weight of the person
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| ## ...
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| Also required: the background concentration. Some values available for comparison: Urban US highest PM<sub>2.5</sub> concs 20-30 mikrog/m<sup>3</sup>, concentration in Helsinki over several years 8-11 mikrog/m<sup>3</sup>, non-urban US concs 1-6 mikrog/m<sup>3</sup> (Koistinen 2002). Thus, small Finnish town: maybe 7 mikrog/m<sup>3</sup>?
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| |Inputs =
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| |Index =
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| |Definition = D = ((IR)(P)(RF)(ET)(EF)(ED))/(BW)(AT) where
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| D = dose (mg/kg.day)
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| IR = inhalation rate (m<sup>3</sup>/h)
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| P = particle concentration in air (mg/m<sup>3</sup>)
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| RF = respirable fraction of particles (dimensioless)
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| ET = exposure time (hours/day)
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| EF = exposure frequency (days/year)
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| ED = exposure duration (years)
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| BW = body weight (kg)
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| AT = averaging time (days)(Schwela ym. 2002)
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| for dose over a lifetime the formula can be simplified to D = (IR)(P)(RF)/BW
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| Assumptions:
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| IR = 13 m<sup>3</sup>/d
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| P = the background concentration, as the emission caused by the MSWI is distributed wide and thus diluted to negligible, thus 7 mikrog/m<sup>3</sup>/d = 0,007 mg/m<sup>3</sup>/d
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| RF = 0,6
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| BW = 70 kg
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| HOWEVER, in most dose-response studies and health effect evaluations the dose = the exposure or even the concentration in air.
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| |Unit = mg d <sup>-1</sup> kg<sup>-1</sup>
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| |Result = 0,0008 mg d <sup>-1</sup> kg<sup>-1</sup>
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| |References =List of references does not include articles referred to within the reference...
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| # Koistinen, Kimmo (2002). Exposure of an urban adult population to PM<sub>2.5</sub>. Methods, determination and sources. Publications of the National Public Health Institute A3/2002.
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| # Schwela D, Morawska L, Kotzias D (Eds.) 2002. Guidelines for concentration and exposure-response measurement of fine and ultra fine particulate matter for use in epidemiological studies. WHO and JRC Expert Task Force meeting, Ispra, Italy, November 2002.
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| }}
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| ==== PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure-response function on population level====
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| {{var
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| |Name = PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure-response function on population level
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| |Focus = the relationship between PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure and specific health effects in a given timeperiod
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| |Scope = general population
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| |Description = '''PM<sub>2.5</sub>''' are fine particles less than 2.5 μm in diameter. Their exposure-response function is needed to determine the effect of PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure on Hämeenkyrö inhabitants' health. ''Health effect of PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure in Hämeenkyrö = total PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure in Hämeenkyrö * exposure-response function in the general population''. Exposure-response function can be derived from exposure modelling, animal toxicology, small clinical or panel studies, and epidemiological studies. Exposed population can be divided into subpopulations (e.g. adults, children, infants, the elderly), and exposure is assessed per certain timeperiod (e.g. daily or annual exposure).
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|
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| *Health effects related to '''short-term exposure'''
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| **respiratory symptoms
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| **adverse cardiovascular effects
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| **increased medication usage
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| **increased number of hospital admissions
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| **increased mortality
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| *Health effects related to '''long-term exposure''' (more relevance to public health)
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| **increased incidence of respiratory symptoms
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| **reduction in lung function
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| **increased incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)
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| **reduction in life expectancy
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| ***increased cardiopulmonary mortality
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| ***increased lung cancer mortality
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| Sensitive subgroups: children, the elderly, individuals with heart and lung disease, individuals who are active outdoors
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| |Inputs = Fine particle variables:
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| *PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions in Hämeenkyrö
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| *PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions from MSWI, biofuel plant, and natural gas plant in Hämeenkyrö
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| *Baseline PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure in Hämeenkyrö
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| *PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure due to MSWI in Hämeenkyrö
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| |Index =
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| |Definition =
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| |Unit = increase in adverse health effect/1 ug/m3 change in PM <sub>2.5</sub> concentration
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| increase in the risk of death per each 10 µg/m<sup>3</sup> elevation in PM<sub>2.5</sub>
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| |Result = PM<sub>2.5</sub>
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| *6% increase in the risk of deaths from all causes (95% CI 2-11%)
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| *12% increase in the risk of death from cardiovascular diseases and diabetes (95% CI 8-15%)
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| *14% increase in the risk of death from lung cancer (95% CI 4-23%)
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| per each 10 µg/m<sup>3</sup> elevation in PM<sub>2.5</sub> air pollution
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| |References = Health aspects of air pollution. Results from the WHO project "Systematic review of health aspects of air pollution in Europe". World Health Organization, 2004. http://www.euro.who.int/document/E83080.pdf
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| Pope et al. 2002. Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. JAMA 287(9), 1132-1141.
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| Pope et al. 2004. Cardiovascular mortality and long-term exposure to particulate air pollution. Circulation (109), 71-77.
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| Service Contract for Carrying out Cost-Benefit Analysis of Air Quality Related Issues, in particular in the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) Programme. Volume 2: Health Impact Assessment. AEA Technology Environment, 2005. http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/cafe/pdf/cba_methodology_vol2.pdf
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| http://es.epa.gov/ncer/rfa/2004/2004_pm_research.html
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| }}
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| ====Health effects of exposure to PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions from MSWI====
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| {{var
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| |Name = Health effects of PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions from MSWI
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| |Focus =
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| |Scope =
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| |Description =
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| |Inputs =
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| |Index =
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| |Definition =
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| |Unit =
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| |Result =
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| |References =
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| }}
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| ====Health effects of baseline PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure====
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| {{var
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| |Name = Health effects of baseline PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure
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| |Focus =
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| |Scope =
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| |Description =
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| |Inputs =
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| |Index =
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| |Definition =
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| |Unit =
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| |Result =
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| |References =
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| }}
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