Population of Europe: Difference between revisions

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{{variable|moderator=Jouni}}
[[Category:Person or group]]
[[Category:Population characteristics]]
[[Category:Europe]]
[[Category:Mega case study]]
{{variable|moderator=Alexandra Kuhn}}


'''Population of Europe''' estimates the size of the population in Europe in 2000-2050.{{disclink|Units, boundaries, and other things}}
'''Population of Europe''' estimates the size of the population in Europe in 2000-2050.{{disclink|Units, boundaries, and other things}}
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===Data===
===Data===


Data available:
'''Data sources used'''
 
A) Census data [http://www.integrated-assessment.eu/resource_centre/small_area_population_data] are available on LAU  level 2 for the year 2001. They are stratified by gender and age and used as basis data set for 2000/2001. They give spatial information as well as information on age groups and gender. However, they do not give information about the development in the future. Only data for 23 countries are available. BG, CY, LV, RO, CH, NO and IS are missing.
 
B) UN data [http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp?panel=2] are available by country for the years 1950 to 2050 stratified by gender and 5-year age groups. They were used for filling of information gaps on country totals and gender and age stratification for those countries for which no LAU census data was available. Furthermore, they are used for deriving growth rates of population subgroups for future years. If for some reason not gridded data are needed but country totals, UN data can be taken. They give information on a country level. No further spatial information is available.
 
C) GWP(Gridded World Population) [http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/global.jsp] data are available from CIESIN/SEDAC. They provide gridded data on several resolutions for several regions. Interesting for the INTARESE/HEITMSA study were the data for 2000 and 2010 for a resolution of ½°. GWP data are used for filling of spatial information gaps for those countries for which no LAU census data is available. They furthermore give some feeling for spatial shift of population from 2000 to 2010. No information for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 is available. No stratification regarding gender or age groups is available.
 
D) EUROSTAT data [http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=de&pcode=tps00002&plugin=1] and projections are available for all required years. EUROSTAT data, including projections to the future, are used as one basic assumption for the energy modellinginfo, which in turn is an important basis for emissioninfo scenario modelling. No stratification regarding gender or age groups is available for future years. Comparisons indicate that EUROSTAT data, including projections, does not differ much from UN data, including projections. Thus, consistency is preserved.
 
 
'''Other data sources (partly outdated)'''
* United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Bulletin of Housing Statistics for Europe and North America 2006. [http://www.unece.org/hlm/prgm/hsstat/Bulletin_06.htm]
* [[Population of the World]]
* [[Population of the World]]
* [[IIASA World Population Program]]
* [[IIASA World Population Program]]
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* IPCC / SRES. Source: Lutz / IIASA 1995 (not used) {{reslink|Lutz data}}
* IPCC / SRES. Source: Lutz / IIASA 1995 (not used) {{reslink|Lutz data}}
** From 1995; 13 regions of the world; stratified by 5 year age groups and gender, 1995 – 2100 in 5 year steps
** From 1995; 13 regions of the world; stratified by 5 year age groups and gender, 1995 – 2100 in 5 year steps
* CIESIN/SEDAC: GWP http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/global.jsp
** 1990 – 2015; total # per grid cell, extrapolate current population growth to 2015; 1°, ½°, ¼°, 2.5’; not stratification into sub groups
* UN data http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp
** 1950 – 2050; all countries, 5 y. age groups & gender; 3 growth rates
* EUROSTAT
** PRIMES and TIMES are based on this; GAINS is based on PRIMES
* Very fine national data provided by Danielle from IC
** 2001; LAU 2 level; later gridded 100m; 5 year age groups & gender


Surveys were performed as a basis for the population data sources applied in the assessment (for past estimations).  
Surveys were performed as a basis for the population data sources applied in the assessment (for past estimations).  


Data used:
===Dependencies===
Data sources applied are: a) CIESIN/SEDAC data (http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/global.jsp) b) UN data (http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp); c) high resolution data provided by Danielle from IC; d) Eurostat data.
 
Ad a) Data is available for the years 1990-2015 in 5 year steps. Numbers are given as total number per grid cell (not stratified). An extrapolation of the current population growth to 2015 was undertaken to result in a projection of the population in the year 2015. Data is available on a grid with the following grid sizes: 1°, 0.5°, 0.25°, and 2.5'. Ad b) Data is available for the years 1950-2050 in 5 year steps. It is available for all countries. Data is stratified by 5 year age groups and gender. Three different growth rates are available. Ad c) ... .
 
===Causality===


* The number of people living in a grid cell, or country, is dependent on the birth rate, the mortality rate and the migration rate.
* The number of people living in a grid cell, or country, is dependent on the birth rate, the mortality rate and the migration rate.
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===Unit===
===Unit===


<nowiki>#</nowiki>
<nowiki># of people</nowiki>


===Formula===
===Formula===


Alternative 1 is used.
* For national data the UN data is used directly.


====Alternative 1====
* For the gridded data the following steps were performed:


This alternative uses existing IIASA data.
'''Step 1a''': Processing LAU census data to fit it to the Emep grid cell
* [[Analytica]] model for computations: [[:file:IIASA World Population Program.ANA|IIASA World Population Program.ANA]].
* Filling gaps in the available data sets (e.g. for some countries for some LAU regions only the total number of persons was available, not split by age and gender)
* The data comes directly from [http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/datasheet/download_2008.shtml IIASA population in Europe by country].
* Filling missing age groups (e.g. for some countries no 5-year age bands were given but e.g. 15-year bands: they were further split up using age group fractions derived from the UN data)
* Problem: The ready-made estimates are only for years 2007 and 2030. Solution: Ignore, start with those two years.
* Intersection with Emep 50 km x 50 km grid
* Problem: IIASA has also population projections for 2008-2100 for each year, but this is only at the level of "Western Europe". This could be scaled somehow. Western Europe is smaller than EU-30, because some Eastern Europe countries belong to the latter. Therefore, the totals do not match. In addition, the population trends are different in different countries, so that it is not good to just apply the same trend in each country. Some fuzzy algorithm could be used, but that takes time because it is not readily available. Maybe we should develop a simple, generic fuzzy algorithm for combining conflicting data? Solution: Ignore time trend data.
* Summing up per grid cell, age and gender


====Alternative 2====
'''Step 1b''': Filling gaps: Filling data for those countries for which no LAU census data was available
* Using UN data for country totals
* Splitting into subgroups on a country level using UN data (subgroup fractions)
* Area-weigh total population using GWP data (using percentages of grid cells compared to the total GWP population)


* For national data the UN data is used directly.
UN data are used for country totals as country totals for all sources are relatively small, so there is no reason against using them. Furthermore, UN data country totals and growth rates are used for projections to the future (see step 2). Thus, consistency is preserved.


* For the gridded data the CIESIN/SEDAC data is used, which is on the grid. The UN growth rates from the UN data are applied to the gridded data. For the subgroup stratification source c) is applied. For gridded data the following steps are performed:
'''Step 1c''': Summing up data from both sources
** Step 1: The Gridded World Population (GWP) data for 2000 is taken as basis for each 50x50 km Emep grid cell.
* Summing up values for each grid cell from both sources
** Step 2: In a next step, if necessary, it is scaled to fit the country totals GWP of 2000 with those of the 2000 UN data.
** Step 3: Then, the fine resolution data souce c) \wichtig{include source} , which is based on the year 2001, is used to calculate the shares of each subgroup (age and gender), specifically for each single grid cell!
** Step 4: Now the growth rates for future years are estimated: Growth rates (per country) of the UN data from 2000 to 2010, 2020, 2030 and 2050 are calculated for each population sub group separately (to allow for shifts in the percentages of the subgroups instead of using the growth rate for the total population).
** Step 5: The growth rates are now applied, for each year, to the sub groups of the base year.


Given the numbers for the sub groups and years, the percentages for age groups, the percentages for working/non-working status:
'''Step 2''': Projections to the future
* Growth rates from UN data (for each subgroup separately) are taken to project the basic data set to the future.
* Resultinfo: Data set including for each grid cell the number of persons of each subgroup in the years 2000, 2010, 2020, 2030 and 2050. For 2020, 2030 and 2050, mediuminfo, high and low estimates are available.


Let the following.
Growth rates from UN data are taken because i) UN data are taken whenever possible for consistency reasons, ii) UN data have several growth rates (middle, high, low) which gives some kind of uncertaintyinfo bounds, and iii) EUROSTAT growth rates fit quite well with the UN data growth rates so there is no inconsistency here.
* [[Country]] is the index for European countries. There should be a row "Sea" for sea areas.
* [[Year]] is the index for years considered (selected years between 2000-2050)
* [[Sex]] is the index for sex (Male or Female)
* EMEP is the index for EMEP grid identifiers (1 - ca. 3000)
* [[Age]] is the index for 5-year age groups of the population.
* Population_by_country is the total population in Europe, indexed by country, age group, and year.
* Country_emep is an indicator (indexed by EMEP and Country), which tells the fraction of each EMEP grid cell that belongs to the specified country. This sums up to 1 when summed up over Country.
* Population_emep is the current population disaggregated into the EMEP grid.
* Population_ic is the disaggregated population data for 2001. This should be first aggregated to EMEP grid (if that's what we want). This is indexed by age and sex.


The [[Analytica]] code for disaggretagion could look like this {{disclink|Disaggregation}}:
For further information see the [[media:Population_data_documentation.pdf‎ | preliminary documentation]].


<anacode>
var a:= population_emep*country_emep;
a:= a/sum(a,emep);
a:= a*population_by_country
</anacode>


 
''[http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Population_of_Europe&oldid=17065#Formula Analytica solution] was developed in a previous phase of work, but it was not used.
See also
* [[:image:Agriculture mega case study.ANA|Agriculture mega case study.ANA]]


==Result==
==Result==
The current result is based on data obtained from IC. Not final version, though.


{{resultlink}}
{{resultlink}}
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==See also==
==See also==


* [[Mega case study]]
* [[Common Case Study]]
* [[Risk assessment of nitrate in drinking water]]
* [[Risk assessment of nitrate in drinking water]]
* [[media:Population_data_documentation.pdf‎ | Preliminary documentation]]
* [[:image:Agriculture mega case study.ANA|Agriculture mega case study.ANA]]
==Keywords==
Population, Europe, growth rate


==References==
==References==


<references/>
<references/>
==Related files==
{{mfiles}}
[[Category:Data]]

Latest revision as of 22:07, 22 March 2011



Population of Europe estimates the size of the population in Europe in 2000-2050.D↷

Scope

What is the the number of people in the countries of the European Union and on the 50x50 km Emep grid, for the years 2000, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2050, disaggregated by age (5 year age groups), gender and spatial location of residence?

Definition

Data

Data sources used

A) Census data [1] are available on LAU level 2 for the year 2001. They are stratified by gender and age and used as basis data set for 2000/2001. They give spatial information as well as information on age groups and gender. However, they do not give information about the development in the future. Only data for 23 countries are available. BG, CY, LV, RO, CH, NO and IS are missing.

B) UN data [2] are available by country for the years 1950 to 2050 stratified by gender and 5-year age groups. They were used for filling of information gaps on country totals and gender and age stratification for those countries for which no LAU census data was available. Furthermore, they are used for deriving growth rates of population subgroups for future years. If for some reason not gridded data are needed but country totals, UN data can be taken. They give information on a country level. No further spatial information is available.

C) GWP(Gridded World Population) [3] data are available from CIESIN/SEDAC. They provide gridded data on several resolutions for several regions. Interesting for the INTARESE/HEITMSA study were the data for 2000 and 2010 for a resolution of ½°. GWP data are used for filling of spatial information gaps for those countries for which no LAU census data is available. They furthermore give some feeling for spatial shift of population from 2000 to 2010. No information for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 is available. No stratification regarding gender or age groups is available.

D) EUROSTAT data [4] and projections are available for all required years. EUROSTAT data, including projections to the future, are used as one basic assumption for the energy modellinginfo, which in turn is an important basis for emissioninfo scenario modelling. No stratification regarding gender or age groups is available for future years. Comparisons indicate that EUROSTAT data, including projections, does not differ much from UN data, including projections. Thus, consistency is preserved.


Other data sources (partly outdated)

Surveys were performed as a basis for the population data sources applied in the assessment (for past estimations).

Dependencies

  • The number of people living in a grid cell, or country, is dependent on the birth rate, the mortality rate and the migration rate.

Unit

# of people

Formula

  • For national data the UN data is used directly.
  • For the gridded data the following steps were performed:

Step 1a: Processing LAU census data to fit it to the Emep grid cell

  • Filling gaps in the available data sets (e.g. for some countries for some LAU regions only the total number of persons was available, not split by age and gender)
  • Filling missing age groups (e.g. for some countries no 5-year age bands were given but e.g. 15-year bands: they were further split up using age group fractions derived from the UN data)
  • Intersection with Emep 50 km x 50 km grid
  • Summing up per grid cell, age and gender

Step 1b: Filling gaps: Filling data for those countries for which no LAU census data was available

  • Using UN data for country totals
  • Splitting into subgroups on a country level using UN data (subgroup fractions)
  • Area-weigh total population using GWP data (using percentages of grid cells compared to the total GWP population)

UN data are used for country totals as country totals for all sources are relatively small, so there is no reason against using them. Furthermore, UN data country totals and growth rates are used for projections to the future (see step 2). Thus, consistency is preserved.

Step 1c: Summing up data from both sources

  • Summing up values for each grid cell from both sources

Step 2: Projections to the future

  • Growth rates from UN data (for each subgroup separately) are taken to project the basic data set to the future.
  • Resultinfo: Data set including for each grid cell the number of persons of each subgroup in the years 2000, 2010, 2020, 2030 and 2050. For 2020, 2030 and 2050, mediuminfo, high and low estimates are available.

Growth rates from UN data are taken because i) UN data are taken whenever possible for consistency reasons, ii) UN data have several growth rates (middle, high, low) which gives some kind of uncertaintyinfo bounds, and iii) EUROSTAT growth rates fit quite well with the UN data growth rates so there is no inconsistency here.

For further information see the preliminary documentation.


Analytica solution was developed in a previous phase of work, but it was not used.

Result

{{#opasnet_base_link:Op_en3017}}


See also

Keywords

Population, Europe, growth rate

References


Related files

<mfanonymousfilelist></mfanonymousfilelist>

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