2 1 1 0 2 0 -1 0 Dynamic simulation periods are specified in Time's definition. This is usually a list of numbers or labels, typically in some unit of time (days, weeks, months, etc.). Use the ÒDynamic()Ó function in your variables to perform dynamic simulation. [0,1,2] Introduction to the model: Our food choices are commonly known to have a crucial role on the overall psychosomatic wellbeing in various phases of life. Not in the slightest, the nutritional state of bearing mothers has a crucial bearing on the forthcoming health of an individual. Fish, as clearly being a beneficial food, is an excellent source of many nutrients such as vitamin D, polyunsaturated n-3 fatty acids and selenium to mention a few. However, even healthy food can pose risks. Fish, especially the top predators via their habitat in aquatic ecosystems, are susceptible to biomagnification of lipophilic and persistent environmental contaminants such as polychlorinated dibenzodioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and methyl mercury (Met-Hg). Since there are hardly a place in the world with no detectable environmental contamination, the exposure risk for human through fish consumption is predominant. A future challenge in environmental health risk assessment will be how to effectively incorporate the multitude of consequences of environmental issues and hazards related to children's health into forthcoming practices in risk assessment and management. To touch on this delicate issue from the food-borne risks' point of view, a detailed risk-benefit analysis by means of uncertainty-incorporated probability distributions on the role of fish in the diet of adults as compared to children of a Finnish average population is presented in this model. This model focuses on risks of PCDD/Fs and nutritional benefits of fish consumption on childhood and adult health. Potential health indicator risk endpoints are neurodevelopmental defects and cardiovascular , brain function and mental health for children and adults, respectively. As broad health indicator beneficial endpoints as reasonable will be incorporated into the model. The most potential ones include n-3 PUFAs, vitamin D and ___. Noteworthy, the model also aims to evaluate both the prenatal and lactation-related risks and benefits of fish consumption. MALLIN KUNNIANHIMOINEN (laaja-alainen) FOCUS VAATII VIEL€ PALJON T€SMENNYST€ YLIMALKAAN ONNISTUAKSEEN K€YT€NN…SS€. Also an attemp to evaluate useful elements and limitations associated with the application of this risk-benefit model as well as their implications to societal decision-making and risk management on human health issues will be made. Anna Karjalainen, Jouni Tuomisto, Olli Leino, Marjo Niittynen 4. Septa 2007 11:58 akau 5. Novta 2007 12:07 48,24 1,0,-23,1024,665,17 2,0,-23,1024,665 Arial, 15 0,Model Rba_fish_diox_child,2,2,0,1,C:\DATA\Beneris\Models\Fish case study\Valikaavio RBA Fish PCDDs A vs. C_25102007_ak_XML.ANA akau 11. Octta 2007 12:23 48,24 304,232,1 48,24 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, 1,0,-23,1024,665,17 58982,58982,58982 Arial, 13 FunctionOf(Pcdd_f_concn__in_dom; Expr; Expr;) 480,176,1 48,40 [Chance Pcddf_abs_eff] [Variable Total_cancer_risk] FunctionOf(Pcdd_f_concn__in_dom; Expr; Expr) 352,176,1 48,40 2,0,-23,1025,666 [Chance Pcddf_abs_eff] [Constant Mother_s_pcdd_f_body] FunctionOf(Expr; Pcdd_f_concn__in_dom; Expr; Exposure_of_pregnant) 448,88,1 48,31 [Constant Placenta_pcdd_f_conc, Variable Developmental_defect] FunctionOf(Expr; Expr; Pcdd_f_concn__in_dom; Exposure_of_pregnant) 352,40,1 48,32 [Constant Placenta_pcdd_f_conc, Constant Mother_s_pcdd_f_body, Variable Developmental_defect] 168,88,1 68,44 2,0,-23,1025,666 [Variable Prenatal_exposure_to, Variable Suckling_exposure_to] Abraham et al. (1998) in Kiviranta H. 2005. Exposure and human PCDD/F and PCB body burden in Finland. Academic dissertation, publications of the National public health Institute, 14/2005. Approximately 20-30 % reduction in mother's PCDD/F body burden due to pregnancy and suckling is generally observed. This means that generally the second child is exposed to PCDD/Fs both during pregnancy and through lactation 20-30 % less than the first child. Obviously some case-specific variation seen, which is dependent on sisters age diffrences. In principal, mother's body burden depletion in her third-n pregnancies and breast feeding periods should be also 20-30 %, but is this certified as a correct assumption? Mother's age affects considerable: the older the mother, the higher PCDD/F body burden she has gained during her lifespan. Feeding habits affect considerably: the morre she has eaten PCDD/F containing products (especially fish in Finland) during her lifespan, the higher body burden she has. 192,176,1 96,40 2,0,-23,1025,666 [Variable Exposure_of_pregnant, Variable Suckling_exposure_to] proportion Absorption effeciences describe the the percentual assimilation or accumulation of the total amount taken in from fish eaten as proportions. According to the reference below they are in the order of: - 76-99% for TCDDs - 87-99% for TCDFs 408,272,1 56,32 2,0,-23,1024,665 19661,65535,65535 [Variable Exposure_of_general_, Variable Exposure_of_pregnant] <a href="C:\DATA\Julkaisut\RBA Fish adults children julkaisut\Maruyma et al_2003_Chemosphere_Dioxin accumulation human tissues.pdf">Maruyama W. et al. 2003</a> Maruyama W. et al. 2003. Simulation of dioxin accumulation in human tissues and analysis or reproductive risk. Chemosphere 53:301-313. akau 11. Octta 2007 12:23 48,24 136,72,1 56,24 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, 1,1,0,448,245,17 Arial, 13 g/d of fish users Table(Fish_species,Gender,Age_categories)( Normal(5.717,5.897),Normal(11.548,12.958),Normal(29.611,39.023), Normal(6.788,6.346),Normal(15.972,21.473),Normal(20.536,30.159), Normal(0,0),Normal(3.333,2.47),Normal(19.843,15.217), Normal(7.207,0),Normal(0,0),Normal(9.763,3.426), Normal(7.858,7.6),Normal(8.884,10.204),Normal(37.081,49.405), Normal(5.648,6.936),Normal(16.538,30.262),Normal(21.172,29.705), Normal(10.053,8.227),Normal(19.395,23.573),Normal(52.569,64.867), Normal(5.053,6.58),Normal(16.194,22.257),Normal(39.032,41.008), Normal(3.636,2.402),Normal(3.684,3.106),Normal(26.13,32.603), Normal(5.739,5.807),Normal(3.851,5.269),Normal(15.734,29.015), Normal(9.686,7.075),Normal(17.59,14.058),Normal(66.308,48.587), Normal(10.563,8.727),Normal(15.535,12.569),Normal(54.363,38.957), Normal(0.663,1.339),Normal(4.328,4.142),Normal(19.94,26.408), Normal(4.192,3.572),Normal(2.798,2.573),Normal(23.126,20.591), Normal(5.807,3.15),Normal(14.644,29.199),Normal(20.305,31.374), Normal(8.261,7.212),Normal(11.138,20.768),Normal(13.662,14.218), Normal(10.09,7.458),Normal(16.479,14.435),Normal(54.505,32.059), Normal(10.879,7.759),Normal(14.857,9.581),Normal(36.367,22.92), Normal(13.82,14.23),Normal(18.79,19.343),Normal(24.946,19.845), Normal(9.417,7.764),Normal(16.831,11.136),Normal(27.182,18.09), Normal(18.647,18.83),Normal(22.52,17.775),'Normal(0.000)', Normal(12.243,10.803),Normal(30.713,25.616),'Normal(0.000)', Normal(7.981,6.591),Normal(7.733,8.539),Normal(47.431,39.261), Normal(3.409,3.52),Normal(6.408,5.676),Normal(31.18,24.581) ) 160,248,1 72,36 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, 2,0,-23,1024,667 2,0,-23,1024,667,0,MIDM 2,0,-23,1024,667,0,MIDM 65535,52427,65534 Arial, 13 [Age_categories,Fish_species] [Age_categories,Fish_species] <a href="N:\YTOS\Projects\BENERIS\WP2\Datat pyydetyssa muodossa\Beneris_Food consumption_FINLAND_290307_th_ak.xls">Fineli database on fish nutrient contents</a> Table(Fish_species)( Normal(3.539,4.046),Normal(0.0988,0.1122),Normal(0.9498,1.512),Normal(5.589,5.162),Normal(1.526,3.585),Normal(8.691,9.747),Normal(2.31,1.904),Normal(0.5699,1.161),Normal(7.822,6.761),Normal(1.636,1.713),Normal(0,0),Normal(6.192,7.883)) 160,168,1 72,36 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, 2,0,-23,1024,667 2,0,-23,1024,667,0,MIDM 2,0,-23,1024,667,0,MIDM 65535,52427,65534 Arial, 13 ['Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras)','Herring (Clupea harengus)','Vendace (Coregonus albula)','Whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus)','Pike (Esox lucius)','Rainbow trout (Onchorhynchus mykiss)','Shrimp (Pandalus sp.)','Perch (Perca fluviatilis)','Saithe (Pollachius virens)','Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)','Pike-perch (Sander lucioperca)','Tuna (Thunnus thynnus)'] 256,312,1 56,12 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, 2,0,-23,1025,666 Arial, 13 men or women ['men','women'] 344,328,1 36,12 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, 2,0,-23,1025,666 Arial, 13 year Class 0_2 describes exposure from pregnancy and lactatation to the age of 2 years. Class 2_18 describes exposure during childhood and puberty. Class 18_55 describes exposure during adulthood. ['0_2','2_18','18_55'] 248,344,1 56,12 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, 2,0,-23,1025,666 Arial, 13 FunctionOf(Expr; Expr) 136,232,1 56,24 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Arial, 13 Age group of adults= 18-55 years FunctionOf(Expr; Expr; Expr) 680,240,1 60,24 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, 2,0,-23,1025,666 Arial, 13 [Text Te4, Variable Total_cancer_risk, Variable Omega_3_fatty_acid_p] Prenatal period and early childhood=age group 0-2 years. FunctionOf(Expr; Expr; Expr; Expr; Expr; Expr; Expr; Expr) 680,80,1 72,29 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Arial, 13 [Variable Developmental_defect, Variable Omega_3_fatty_acid_b] akau 11. Octta 2007 12:23 48,24 304,104,1 72,32 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, 1,1,0,448,245,17 Arial, 13 mg/d Omega_3_fatty_acid_c*Domestic_fish_consu 112,104,1 48,38 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, 2,0,-23,1024,667 2,0,-23,1024,667,1,PDFP Arial, 13 [0, 0, 0, 0 ] mg/d Periaatteessa 1:1, mutta tŠmŠ pitŠŠ tarkentaa kirjallisuudesta. Omega_3_intake_by_pr*1 256,104,1 64,28 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Arial, 13 [Variable Omega_3_fatty_acid_b] Periaatteessa 1:1, mutta tŠmŠ pitŠŠ tarkentaa kirjallisuudesta. Omega_3_intake_by_pr*1 256,176,1 60,28 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Arial, 13 [Variable Omega_3_fatty_acid_b] mg/d Omega-3 intake in an average population from the documented fish consumption Omega_3_fatty_acid_c*Domestic_fish_consu1 112,192,1 48,38 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Arial, 13 [Variable Omega_3_fatty_acid_p] mass unit/day ['Omega-3 fatty acids, mg/d','Vitamin D, ug/d','Vitamin E, mg/d','Selenium,ug/d','Iodine, ug/d','Group B vitamins, mg/d'] 136,344,1 56,12 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, 2,409,32,476,224 Arial, 13 Net_health_effects_i; Net_health_effects_2; Net_health_effects_1 864,160,1 76,38 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Arial, 13 Childhood period and puberty= age group of 2-18 years. FunctionOf(Expr; Expr; Expr; Expr) 680,168,1 64,29 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Arial, 13 [Variable Developmental_defect, Variable Omega_3_fatty_acid_b] Source information 136,176,-8 80,164 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, 65535,65533,52427 Arial, 13 Exposure and intakes 304,176,-7 92,164 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, 65535,65531,39321 Arial, 13 Net health effects 680,152,-6 96,138 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, 2,0,-23,1025,666 52428,65535,52427 Arial, 13 [Objective Net_health_effects_i] Age-category comparisons, Susceptible age groups vs. adults 864,150,-5 92,138 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, 65535,55703,52427 Arial, 13 Critical hazardous indicators 488,280,-4 96,84 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, 52427,60621,65535 Arial, 13 488,248,1 60,24 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Arial, 13 [Variable Prenatal_exposure_to, Variable Suckling_exposure_to] [Objective Net_health_effects_2, Objective Net_health_effects_1] U.S.EPA cancer slope factor used here for describing the total cancer risk due to exposure to dioxins. 488,312,1 48,24 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, 2,0,-23,1025,666 Arial, 13 [Variable Exposure_of_general_] [Objective Net_health_effects_i] mass unit/g ['Omega-3 fatty acids, mg/g','Vitamin D, ug/g','Vitamin E, mg/g','Selenium,ug/g','Iodine, ug/g','Group B vitamins, mg/g'] 144,312,1 56,12 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, 2,0,-23,1024,667 Arial, 13 Critical beneficial indicators 488,104,-3 96,92 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, 58978,52427,65535 Arial, 13 488,160,1 60,28 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Arial, 13 [Variable Omega_3_intake_in_an] [Objective Net_health_effects_i] Omega-3 fatty acid beneficial effects on central nervous system development descried as attained (added?) intelligence quotient, IQ at a certain age 488,80,1 80,40 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Arial, 13 [Variable Prenatal_intake_of_o, Variable Suckling_intake_of_o] [Objective Net_health_effects_2, Objective Net_health_effects_1] Indexes 224,320,-1 168,44 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, Arial, 13 48,24 136,144,1 56,32 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Arial, 13 mass units/g fish Concentrations of beneficial nutrients in fish extracted from the FIneli database, where they are indicated as mass units/100 g fish analysed. Criteria for choosing the fish preparation method used prior the analyses: 1) one that is presumed as a common one used by the Finnish consumers (roasting), and 2) also as available for most of the fish in the database. -Omega-3 fatty acids, mg/g, as sum of n-3 PUFA (polyunsaturated fatty acids) precursors ALA (alphalinoleic acid), EPA (eicosapanthenic acid), and DHA (docosahexaenoic acid). DPA (docosapentaenoic acid) not available in the database. -Vitamin D, ug/g -Vitamin E, mg/g -Selenium, ug/g -Iodine, ug/g -Group B vitamins, mg/g, as sum of B1 (tiamin), B2 (riboflavin), B6 (pyridoxin), B12 (cyanokobalamin) and niacin as its eqvivalents NE. Incorporation does not reflect any functional entity (its usefulness needs to be further reassessed). See the reference below for further information for instance on the preparation ingredients used. Table(Fish_species,Nutrient_concn_)( (((490+232)+491)/100),(17.5/100),(3.1/100),(17.9/100),(45/100),(((((5.7+0.16)+0.02)+11.3)+0.24)/100), (((490+232)+491)/100),(17.5/100),(3.1/100),(17.9/100),(45/100),(((((5.7+0.16)+0.02)+11.3)+0.24)/100), (((669+204)+404)/100),(13.1/100),(2.9/100),(21.9/100),(75.6/100),0, (((388+238)+445)/100),0,0,0,0,0, (((441+40)+194)/100),(3/100),(2/100),(22.2/100),(33.9/100),(((((5.4+0.08)+0.09)+1.7)+0.23)/100), (((583+369)+1100)/100),0,0,0,0,0, (((3+124)+122)/100),0,0,0,0,0, (((413+55)+249)/100),0,0,0,0,0, (((5+102)+280)/100),0,0,0,0,0, (((539+308)+895)/100),0,0,0,0,0, (((13+92)+301)/100),0,0,0,0,0, (((225+1014)+2028)/100),0,0,0,0,0 ) 168,136,1 72,28 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, 2,0,-23,1024,667 2,0,-23,1024,667,0,MIDM 2,0,-23,1024,667,1,MIDM 65535,52427,65534 Arial, 13 [Nutrient_concn_,Fish_species] [Self,Fish_species] 1,F,4,2,0,0 [0, 0, 0, 0 ] <a href="http://www.fineli.fi/foodclass.php?classif=fuclass&class=fish&lang=fi">Fineli database on fisn nutrient contents</a> mg/g fish Currently, only omega-3-fatty acids taken into account as health benefits of fish consumption. Slice(Concn__of_beneficial,Nutrient_concn_,1) 168,224,1 64,32 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, 2,0,-23,1024,667 2,0,-23,1024,667,0,MIDM 65535,52427,65534 Arial, 13 <a href="http://www.fineli.fi/foodclass.php?classif=fuclass&class=fish&lang=fi">Fineli database on fisn nutrient contents</a>