0 1 1 1 2 0 ktluser 27. Aprta 2009 23:21 ktluser 28. Aprta 2009 1:53 48,24 1,36,10,994,549,17 2,0,-23,960,188 Arial, 15 0,Model Agriculture___mega_c,2,2,0,1,C:\temp\Agriculture - mega case study.ANA ['BAU','20 % of traffic fuels'] 64,208,1 48,24 2,102,90,476,224 1000 ha From the presentation in the mega case study meeting 27 April, 2009, Kjeller. Table(Country)( 1386,2729,3558,2708,17.035K,829,4219,3984,24.855K,27.591K,12.708K,152,1702,2792,129,4267,10,1958,3266,14.755K,3680,13.907K,485,1879,2264,3192,15.957K) 64,120,1 48,31 2,83,16,416,303,0,MIDM ['BE','BG','CZ','DK','DE','EE','IE','EL','ES','FR','IT','CY','LV','LT','LU','HU','MT','NL','AT','PL','PT','RO','SI','SK','FI','SE','UK'] 64,160,1 48,12 ['BE','BG','CZ','DK','DE','EE','IE','EL','ES','FR','IT','CY','LV','LT','LU','HU','MT','NL','AT','PL','PT','RO','SI','SK','FI','SE','UK'] ['BAU','Strict regulation'] 216,48,1 48,24 kg/a var a:= array(Pesticide_regulation, [uniform(1,50), uniform(0.5,25)]); a*Total_agriculature_l 336,48,1 48,24 [Pesticide_regulation,Country] kg/a var iF:= Lognormal( 0.0001, 5 ); var personal_protection:= beta(100,1000); pesticide_use*iF*personal_protection 456,48,1 48,24 2,447,65,476,224 2,72,47,416,303,0,MIDM [Undefined,Pesticide_regulation,1] [0,0,0,0] [Country,25,Pesticide_regulation,1] Pesticide_inhalation*1M/365/70*Erf_of_pesticides 568,48,1 48,31 [Pesticide_regulation,Country] [Index Country] ['BAU','Efficient'] 216,120,1 48,24 ['BAU','Low'] 64,264,1 52,24 M# Calculates the animal number based on the assumption of the daily consumption of meat (g/d), the amount of meat per animal (kg), and the average lifetime of an animal (a). The total meat consumption and total meat production are assumed equal. var portion:= array(animal, [uniform(0.05, 0.1), uniform(0.05,0.1), uniform(0.02,0.05), uniform(0.02,0.04)]); portion:= if Meat_consumption='Low' then portion*uniform(0.6,1) else portion; var animal_size:= array(animal, [uniform(150,300), uniform(80,150), uniform(0.5, 1.5), uniform(20, 60)]); var lifetime:= array(animal, [uniform(3,5), uniform(0.5,1),uniform(0.2,0.4), uniform(1,3)]); population*portion*365/(animal_size/lifetime) 184,320,1 48,24 2,40,15,416,303,0,MIDM [Meat_consumption,Country] [Index Country] M# Table(Country)( 5,7,6,4,80,1,5,6,50,60,47,1,2,2,0.5,7,0.2,15,6,60,20,15,4,5,5,8,60) 64,320,1 48,24 2,70,33,416,229,0,MIDM 2,40,15,416,303,0,MIDM [Index Country] ['Beef','Pork','Poultry','Sheep'] 184,352,1 48,12 Irrigation_practices*Total_agriculature_l 216,200,1 48,24 Biofuels; Total_agriculature_l 216,264,1 48,24 ton/a Very rough estimates for different animals based on human excretion estimates scaled by the weight. var urine:= array(animal,[uniform(10,30), uniform(2,6), 0, uniform(1,3)]); var manure:= array(animal, [uniform(5,15), uniform(1,3), uniform(0.05, 0.15), uniform(0.5,1)]); Animal_numbers*1M*array(waste,[urine,manure])*365/1000 312,320,1 48,24 2,102,90,498,303 [Animal,Country] [Index Country] [Waste,2,Country,1,Animal,1] Livestock_wastes*Emission_factors*Farming_practices 432,320,1 48,24 ['CO2','CH4','NH3','CFC'] 432,352,1 48,12 ['CO2','CH4','NH3','CFC'] ['Urine','Manure'] 312,352,1 48,12 1 per (mg/kg/d) Dieldrin used as an example. http://www.epa.gov/NCEA/iris/subst/0225.htm Cancer slope factor CSF 16 per (mg/kg/d) lognormal (16,10) 456,104,1 48,24 ['Dieldrin'] 456,136,1 48,12 table(pollutant) 432,256,1 48,24 2,243,15,416,303,0,MIDM Emissions 560,321,1 48,31 Waste_leaching_and_r 560,240,1 48,31 Zoonooses_conc_in_wa 672,240,1 48,24 The first guesstimate is that nitrate fertilisers are used 10-100 kg per hectare per year. Farming_practices-Emissions; uniform(10,100) 320,200,1 48,24 g/l It is assumed that 200 mm of rain turns into groundwater per year. The leached nitrate dissolves in this water volume. Fertilizer_use*uniform(0.01,0.2)/lognormal(.2*100*100,5) 432,192,1 48,31 2,791,171,416,303,0,MIDM g/l Nitrate is evaporated and removed in the treatment, so that only a part remains at tap. Nitrate_leaching_and*uniform(0,0.5) 560,168,1 48,24 The first assumption is that neurodevelopmental effects are as common as infant methemoglobinemia. Further, it is assumed that the birth rate is 1% of the total population per year. (exp(Nitrate_conc_in_wate*erf_of_nitrate)-1)*Population*1M*0.01 672,169,1 48,31 <a href="http://en.opasnet.org/w/Exposure_response_function_for_nitrate_and_iMetHb">Wiki description</a> Nitrate toxicity value for infants U.S. EPA has evaluated the noncancer oral data for nitrate and derived a reference dose (RfD) of 1.6 mg/kg-day with 10 % of risk to MetHb. 0.065850 560,112,1 48,24