<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?>
<ana user="ktluser" project="Agriculture___mega_c" generated="28. Aprta 2009 1:53 " softwareversion="4.1.0" software="Analytica">
 <sysvar name="Usetable">
  <definition>0</definition>
 </sysvar>
 <sysvar name="Typechecking">
  <definition>1</definition>
 </sysvar>
 <sysvar name="Checking">
  <definition>1</definition>
 </sysvar>
 <sysvar name="Showhier">
  <definition>1</definition>
 </sysvar>
 <sysvar name="Saveoptions">
  <definition>2</definition>
 </sysvar>
 <sysvar name="Savevalues">
  <definition>0</definition>
 </sysvar>
 <model name="Agriculture___mega_c">
  <title>Agriculture - mega case study</title>
  <author>ktluser</author>
  <date>27. Aprta 2009 23:21 </date>
  <saveauthor>ktluser</saveauthor>
  <savedate>28. Aprta 2009 1:53 </savedate>
  <defaultsize>48,24</defaultsize>
  <diagstate>1,36,10,994,549,17</diagstate>
  <windstate>2,0,-23,960,188</windstate>
  <fontstyle>Arial, 15</fontstyle>
  <fileinfo>0,Model Agriculture___mega_c,2,2,0,1,C:\temp\Agriculture - mega case study.ANA</fileinfo>
  <decision name="Biofuels">
   <title>Biofuels</title>
   <definition>['BAU','20 % of traffic fuels']</definition>
   <nodelocation>64,208,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,24</nodesize>
   <windstate>2,102,90,476,224</windstate>
  </decision>
  <variable name="Total_agriculature_l">
   <title>Total agriculature land</title>
   <units>1000 ha</units>
   <description>From the presentation in the mega case study meeting 27 April, 2009, Kjeller.</description>
   <definition>Table(Country)(
1386,2729,3558,2708,17.035K,829,4219,3984,24.855K,27.591K,12.708K,152,1702,2792,129,4267,10,1958,3266,14.755K,3680,13.907K,485,1879,2264,3192,15.957K)</definition>
   <nodelocation>64,120,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,31</nodesize>
   <defnstate>2,83,16,416,303,0,MIDM</defnstate>
  </variable>
  <index name="Country">
   <title>Country</title>
   <definition>['BE','BG','CZ','DK','DE','EE','IE','EL','ES','FR','IT','CY','LV','LT','LU','HU','MT','NL','AT','PL','PT','RO','SI','SK','FI','SE','UK']</definition>
   <nodelocation>64,160,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,12</nodesize>
   <att_previndexvalue>['BE','BG','CZ','DK','DE','EE','IE','EL','ES','FR','IT','CY','LV','LT','LU','HU','MT','NL','AT','PL','PT','RO','SI','SK','FI','SE','UK']</att_previndexvalue>
  </index>
  <decision name="Pesticide_regulation">
   <title>Pesticide regulation</title>
   <definition>['BAU','Strict regulation']</definition>
   <nodelocation>216,48,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,24</nodesize>
  </decision>
  <chance name="Pesticide_use">
   <title>Pesticide use</title>
   <units>kg/a</units>
   <definition>var a:= array(Pesticide_regulation, [uniform(1,50), uniform(0.5,25)]);
a*Total_agriculature_l</definition>
   <nodelocation>336,48,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,24</nodesize>
   <reformval>[Pesticide_regulation,Country]</reformval>
  </chance>
  <chance name="Pesticide_inhalation">
   <title>Pesticide inhalation</title>
   <units>kg/a</units>
   <definition>var iF:= Lognormal( 0.0001, 5 );
var personal_protection:= beta(100,1000);
pesticide_use*iF*personal_protection</definition>
   <nodelocation>456,48,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,24</nodesize>
   <windstate>2,447,65,476,224</windstate>
   <valuestate>2,72,47,416,303,0,MIDM</valuestate>
   <reformval>[Undefined,Pesticide_regulation,1]</reformval>
   <att__discretenessinf>[0,0,0,0]</att__discretenessinf>
   <att_resultslicestate>[Country,25,Pesticide_regulation,1]</att_resultslicestate>
  </chance>
  <objective name="Cancer_due_to_pestic">
   <title>Cancer due to pesticides</title>
   <definition>Pesticide_inhalation*1M/365/70*Erf_of_pesticides</definition>
   <nodelocation>568,48,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,31</nodesize>
   <reformval>[Pesticide_regulation,Country]</reformval>
   <att__totalsindex>[Index Country]</att__totalsindex>
  </objective>
  <decision name="Irrigation_practices">
   <title>Irrigation practices</title>
   <definition>['BAU','Efficient']</definition>
   <nodelocation>216,120,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,24</nodesize>
  </decision>
  <decision name="Meat_consumption">
   <title>Meat consumption</title>
   <definition>['BAU','Low']</definition>
   <nodelocation>64,264,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>52,24</nodesize>
  </decision>
  <chance name="Animal_numbers">
   <title>Animal numbers</title>
   <units>M#</units>
   <description>Calculates the animal number based on the assumption of the daily consumption of meat (g/d), the amount of meat per animal (kg), and the average lifetime of an animal (a). The total meat consumption and total meat production are assumed equal.</description>
   <definition>var portion:= array(animal, [uniform(0.05, 0.1), uniform(0.05,0.1), uniform(0.02,0.05), uniform(0.02,0.04)]);
portion:= if Meat_consumption='Low' then portion*uniform(0.6,1) else portion;
var animal_size:= array(animal, [uniform(150,300), uniform(80,150), uniform(0.5, 1.5), uniform(20, 60)]);
var lifetime:= array(animal, [uniform(3,5), uniform(0.5,1),uniform(0.2,0.4), uniform(1,3)]);
population*portion*365/(animal_size/lifetime)</definition>
   <nodelocation>184,320,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,24</nodesize>
   <valuestate>2,40,15,416,303,0,MIDM</valuestate>
   <reformval>[Meat_consumption,Country]</reformval>
   <att__totalsindex>[Index Country]</att__totalsindex>
  </chance>
  <variable name="Population">
   <title>Population</title>
   <units>M#</units>
   <definition>Table(Country)(
5,7,6,4,80,1,5,6,50,60,47,1,2,2,0.5,7,0.2,15,6,60,20,15,4,5,5,8,60)</definition>
   <nodelocation>64,320,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,24</nodesize>
   <defnstate>2,70,33,416,229,0,MIDM</defnstate>
   <valuestate>2,40,15,416,303,0,MIDM</valuestate>
   <att__totalsindex>[Index Country]</att__totalsindex>
  </variable>
  <index name="Animal">
   <title>Animal</title>
   <definition>['Beef','Pork','Poultry','Sheep']</definition>
   <nodelocation>184,352,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,12</nodesize>
  </index>
  <variable name="Cultivation_activiti">
   <title>Cultivation activities</title>
   <definition>Irrigation_practices*Total_agriculature_l</definition>
   <nodelocation>216,200,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,24</nodesize>
  </variable>
  <variable name="Farming_practices">
   <title>Farming practices</title>
   <definition>Biofuels;
Total_agriculature_l</definition>
   <nodelocation>216,264,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,24</nodesize>
  </variable>
  <chance name="Livestock_wastes">
   <title>Livestock wastes</title>
   <units>ton/a</units>
   <description>Very rough estimates for different animals based on human excretion estimates scaled by the weight.</description>
   <definition>var urine:= array(animal,[uniform(10,30), uniform(2,6), 0, uniform(1,3)]);
var manure:= array(animal, [uniform(5,15), uniform(1,3), uniform(0.05, 0.15), uniform(0.5,1)]);
Animal_numbers*1M*array(waste,[urine,manure])*365/1000</definition>
   <nodelocation>312,320,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,24</nodesize>
   <windstate>2,102,90,498,303</windstate>
   <reformval>[Animal,Country]</reformval>
   <att__totalsindex>[Index Country]</att__totalsindex>
   <att_resultslicestate>[Waste,2,Country,1,Animal,1]</att_resultslicestate>
  </chance>
  <variable name="Emissions">
   <title>Emissions</title>
   <definition>Livestock_wastes*Emission_factors*Farming_practices</definition>
   <nodelocation>432,320,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,24</nodesize>
  </variable>
  <index name="Pollutant">
   <title>Pollutant</title>
   <definition>['CO2','CH4','NH3','CFC']</definition>
   <nodelocation>432,352,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,12</nodesize>
   <att_previndexvalue>['CO2','CH4','NH3','CFC']</att_previndexvalue>
  </index>
  <index name="Waste">
   <title>Waste</title>
   <definition>['Urine','Manure']</definition>
   <nodelocation>312,352,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,12</nodesize>
  </index>
  <chance name="Erf_of_pesticides">
   <title>ERF of pesticides</title>
   <units>1 per (mg/kg/d)</units>
   <description>Dieldrin used as an example. http://www.epa.gov/NCEA/iris/subst/0225.htm
Cancer slope factor CSF 16 per (mg/kg/d)</description>
   <definition>lognormal (16,10)</definition>
   <nodelocation>456,104,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,24</nodesize>
  </chance>
  <index name="Pesticide">
   <title>Pesticide</title>
   <definition>['Dieldrin']</definition>
   <nodelocation>456,136,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,12</nodesize>
  </index>
  <variable name="Emission_factors">
   <title>Emission factors</title>
   <definition>table(pollutant)</definition>
   <nodelocation>432,256,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,24</nodesize>
   <defnstate>2,243,15,416,303,0,MIDM</defnstate>
  </variable>
  <variable name="Waste_leaching_and_r">
   <title>Waste leaching and runoff</title>
   <definition>Emissions</definition>
   <nodelocation>560,321,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,31</nodesize>
  </variable>
  <variable name="Zoonooses_conc_in_wa">
   <title>Zoonooses conc in water</title>
   <definition>Waste_leaching_and_r</definition>
   <nodelocation>560,240,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,31</nodesize>
  </variable>
  <objective name="Gastric_infections">
   <title>Gastric infections</title>
   <definition>Zoonooses_conc_in_wa</definition>
   <nodelocation>672,240,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,24</nodesize>
  </objective>
  <chance name="Fertilizer_use">
   <title>Fertilizer use</title>
   <description>The first guesstimate is that nitrate fertilisers are used 10-100 kg per hectare per year.</description>
   <definition>Farming_practices-Emissions;
uniform(10,100)</definition>
   <nodelocation>320,200,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,24</nodesize>
  </chance>
  <chance name="Nitrate_leaching_and">
   <title>Nitrate leaching and runoff</title>
   <units>g/l</units>
   <description>It is assumed that 200 mm of rain turns into groundwater per year. The leached nitrate dissolves in this water volume.</description>
   <definition>Fertilizer_use*uniform(0.01,0.2)/lognormal(.2*100*100,5)</definition>
   <nodelocation>432,192,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,31</nodesize>
   <valuestate>2,791,171,416,303,0,MIDM</valuestate>
  </chance>
  <chance name="Nitrate_conc_in_wate">
   <title>Nitrate conc in water</title>
   <units>g/l</units>
   <description>Nitrate is evaporated and removed in the treatment, so that only a part remains at tap.</description>
   <definition>Nitrate_leaching_and*uniform(0,0.5)</definition>
   <nodelocation>560,168,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,24</nodesize>
  </chance>
  <objective name="Neurodevelopmental_e">
   <title>Neurodevelopmental
effect</title>
   <description>The first assumption is that neurodevelopmental effects are as common as infant methemoglobinemia. Further, it is assumed that the birth rate is 1% of the total population per year.</description>
   <definition>(exp(Nitrate_conc_in_wate*erf_of_nitrate)-1)*Population*1M*0.01</definition>
   <nodelocation>672,169,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,31</nodesize>
  </objective>
  <variable name="Erf_of_nitrate">
   <title>ERF of nitrate</title>
   <description>&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.opasnet.org/w/Exposure_response_function_for_nitrate_and_iMetHb&quot;&gt;Wiki description&lt;/a&gt;
Nitrate toxicity value for infants

U.S. EPA has evaluated the noncancer oral data for nitrate and derived a reference dose (RfD) of 1.6 mg/kg-day with 10 % of risk to MetHb.</description>
   <definition>0.065850</definition>
   <nodelocation>560,112,1</nodelocation>
   <nodesize>48,24</nodesize>
  </variable>
 </model>
</ana>