{ From user olex, Model Pmvsdxmodel at Thu, Mar 08, 2007 1:18 PM} Softwareversion 3.1.1 { System Variables with non-default values: } Samplesize := 20K Windows := 2 Usetable := 0 Typechecking := 0 Checking := 1 Graphwindows := 6 Randomseed := 13 Showundef := 0 Showhier := 1 Saveoptions := 2 Savevalues := 0 Diststeps := 1 Naming := 0 Webhelper := -1 Allwarnings := 0 { Non-default Time SysVar value: } Time := [0,1,2] Title Time: Time Description Time: Dynamic simulation periods are specified in Time's ~~ definition. This is usually a list of numbers or labels, typically in~~ some unit of time (days, weeks, months, etc.). Use the ŅDynamic()Ó ~~ function in your variables to perform dynamic simulation. Attribute Reference Attribute Url Attribute Premises Attribute Deduction Attribute Log Askattribute Reference,Function,Yes Askattribute Url,Function,Yes Askattribute Log,Function,Yes Askattribute Reference,Module,Yes Askattribute Url,Module,Yes Askattribute Log,Module,Yes Askattribute Value,Variable,Yes Askattribute Check,Variable,Yes Askattribute Balloonhelp,Variable,Yes Askattribute Reference,Variable,Yes Askattribute Url,Variable,Yes Askattribute Log,Variable,Yes Model Pmvsdxmodel Title: PMvsDX Description: This model calculates the risk of fine particles due to ~~ heavy-duty vehicles and the risk of dioxins due to domestic fish cons~~ umption in Helsinki metropolitan area (Finland). Author: Olli Leino, Marko Tainio, Jouni T. Tuomisto Date: Mon, Mar 26, 2001 14:02 Saveauthor: olex Savedate: Thu, Mar 08, 2007 1:18 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Diagstate: 1,7,4,536,314,17 Fontstyle: Arial, 13 Fileinfo: 0,Model Pmvsdxmodel,2,2,0,0,N:\Huippuyksikko\Tutkimus\R55_P~~ MvsDioxin\mallit\PMvsDX.ANA Att__diagramprintsca: 87,1,1,0,2,1,6533,8533,1 Reference: Leino O., Tainio, M. and Tuomisto, J.T. 2007 Comparative r~~ isk analysis of dioxins and fine particles. Manuscript, submitted. Url: http://www.ktl.fi/risk/ Module Help1 Title: Help for pyrkilo diagrams Description: 28.6.2004 Jouni Tuomisto~ This module contains brief description about pyrkilo diagram method i~~ n Analytica platform. There are explanations for node usage and colou~~ rs. Version 5, 28.6.2004. Copyright KTL (National Public Health Insti~~ tute, Finland). Author: mtad Date: 16. Aprta 2003 12:56 Saveauthor: jtue Savedate: 29. Junta 2004 10:55 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 752,40,0 Nodesize: 48,29 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0 Diagstate: 1,331,284,866,552,17 Nodecolor: 19661,33649,65535 Fontstyle: Arial, 13 Att__diagramprintsca: 81,1,1,0,2,9,4744,6798,7 Variable Original_data_3r1b Title: Original data 3R1B Description: Contains data that comes from a referrable source. The r~~ eference must be mentioned in the Reference attribute. Colour 3R1B. Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 168,336,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,516 Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Variable Author_judgement_4r2 Title: Author judgement 4R2B Description: Contains data that comes from a non-referrable source, i~~ .e. some general knowledge or author judgement. Colour 4R2B. Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 168,392,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodecolor: 52425,39321,65535 Variable Log_file_4l3b Title: Log 4L3B Description: Contains information about general issues related to the~~ structure and content of a model. Text is written to Description. Ea~~ ch addition is started with the date and the name of the user. The ti~~ tle of the node is Loki n or Log n (n=version number of the model). Y~~ ou should not write information related to a particular node, that sh~~ ould be written in the node itself so that the information will be in~~ herited with the node. Colour 4L3B. Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 56,464,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Nodecolor: 65535,54067,19661 Constant Argument_ Title: Argument (claim) 2L3B Description: Argument about a node, data, or relationship in a model~~ ; or a description of its importance. Colour: automatic (2L3B). Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 280,280,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodecolor: 65535,31131,19661 Variable Causal_node_8r3b Title: Causal node 8R3B Description: This is the basic building block of an Analytica model. ~~ It is a variable that defines a (typically) measurable entity. Usuall~~ y it is calculated based on data on and relationships about its cause~~ s. Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 168,280,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Module Model_6r3b Title: Module~ 6R3B Description: Modules are used to create a hierarchical structure. Mod~~ ules may contain nodes and other modules inside them. Author: mtad Date: 16. Aprta 2003 12:56 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 56,416,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Diagstate: 1,40,0,505,406,17 Close Model_6r3b Constant Comment_6l3b Title: Conclusion~ 6L3B Description: A conclusion is basically an argument. The colour is use~~ d to enhance the fact that the data for this argument originates from~~ the results of the model. Colour 6L3B. Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 280,392,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,44,90,476,224 Nodecolor: 65535,65532,19661 Index Index_5r2b Title: Index 5R2B Description: Index related to the node beside it. Indexes should be a~~ s close as possible to the place where they are used. Otherwise there~~ is the risk of a connection brake. Colour: automatic (5R2B). Definition: [0] Nodelocation: 56,316,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Windstate: 2,341,157,476,224 Text Te1 Description: Colour description: xLyT describes the coordinates in th~~ e colour palette, xth cell from left and yth cell from top. Direction~~ s are L left, R right, T top, B bottom, e.g. 1R1B is the right bottom~~ cell. Nodelocation: 464,312,-1 Nodesize: 112,56 Decision Decision_9l3b Title: Decision~ 9L3B Description: Decision mode defines a decision under analysis. Other d~~ ecisions (such as those decided by someone else) can be defined as un~~ certain variables instead of decisions. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 56,280,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Objective Outcome_1r3b Title: Outcome~ 1R3B Description: Outcome of interest. The optimisation of this variable i~~ s often defined as the criteria for choosing between decision options~~ . Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 56,360,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Chance Chance_11l4b Title: Chance~ 11L4B Description: An uncertain variable that is defined as a probability d~~ istribution. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 168,448,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Constant Read_about_attribute Title: Read about attributes Description: This node describes the use of attributes. All attribute~~ s should be used as described in the manuals of Analytica. Exceptions~~ are described here. This description is written for those who read a~~ s well as for those who write pyrkilo diagrams.~ ~ Class: Shows the type of the node. Some of the variable classes have ~~ a special meaning in pyrkilo diagrams. These are presented in Help fo~~ r pyrkilo diagrams module.~ ~ Identifier: Name of the node that is used in definitions. This must b~~ e unique. When drafting a model, use automatic identifiers. Only when~~ there is no expectation of many changes in node Titles, you can stre~~ amline all identifiers. Try to use short names and the same structure~~ as in the Title. E.g. if title is Long-range transport, use identifi~~ er Lrt.~ ~ Units: The unit of the value calculated in the node. Should always be~~ defined when the node is a part of causal diagram. If the variable d~~ escribed by the node is dimensionless, '-' should be used. If an expl~~ icit unit is not (yet) defined, a description about how the variable ~~ could be measured should be used. E.g. 'mass', 'rate', 'age'.~ ~ Title: The title that is shown on the node in diagram mode. First use~~ a working name that roughly describes the contents. After your model~~ is stabilised, you can rename nodes to better represent the final es~~ sence. Try to avoid intermediate nodes where it is difficult to under~~ stand what the outcome means; instead, combine consequent nodes so th~~ at the outcome is an understandable (measurable) variable.~ ~ Description: A free-text area for describing the contents of the node~~ . All nodes should be explicitly described and justified in the Descr~~ iption so that a user is able to get an idea of the node without look~~ ing at the Definition. If the definiton changes remarkably between ve~~ rsions, it is good to describe this and use dates and user's name for~~ clarity (in a similar manner as in Log nodes).~ ~ Definition: This defines what is calculated in this node. If the node~~ is a non-numerical argument, it should contain a formula that refers~~ to all nodes that are used to justify the claim; it this case, the n~~ umerical result will be nonsense. Pay attention to indexes: all impo~~ rtant indexes must be included, but try to work with as few as possib~~ le. Use the ';' operator to chop the syntax into pieces.~ ~ Check: Criteria to check the values entered.~ ~ Reference: This contains a detailed information about the source of t~~ he data. The article or book should be found with this data. When bui~~ lding a model, there should be an accompanying RefMan file with the s~~ ame name but a different extension. This file contains the full infor~~ mation about each reference cited in the model. The name and path of ~~ the RefMan file must be mentioned in the Reference of the model. If t~~ here is a relevant internet page or a network file, its path can be a~~ dded here. Analytica 3.0 understands html-code and makes these links ~~ clickable. E.g. this is a link to the L~~ umina home page. You can download Analytica Player from there to ~~ browse these models. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 736,272,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,236,80,581,552 Module Argument_structure Title: Argument structure Author: mtad Date: 30. Aprta 2003 10:22 Saveauthor: jtue Savedate: 7. Mayta 2003 10:26 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 736,416,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0 Diagstate: 1,14,10,934,679,17 Fontstyle: Arial, 13 Att__diagramprintsca: 79,1,1,0,2,9,4744,6798,7 Variable D_ Title: D (data)~ LŠhtštiedot Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 56,448,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Variable B_ Title: B (backing)~ Taustatuki Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 160,576,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Variable R_ Title: R (rebuttals)~ Varaukset Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 160,392,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Determ Q_ Title: Q (qualifier)~ Tarkennus Definition: D_+R_+W_ Nodelocation: 160,448,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,507 Variable W_ Title: W (warrant)~ Peruste Definition: B_ Nodelocation: 160,512,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Windstate: 2,102,90,476,224 Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Constant C_ Title: C (claim)~ JohtopŠŠtšs Definition: Q_+Model_variable Nodelocation: 264,448,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Variable D__hoek_et_al_2002__ Title: D: Hoek et al 2002: association between traffic vicinity & mor~~ tality Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 552,424,1 Nodesize: 64,40 Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Variable B__greenland__cohort Title: B: Greenland: Cohort study is the best design in observational~~ epi Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 680,576,1 Nodesize: 64,38 Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Variable R__if_the_effect_was Title: R: if the effect was due to PM Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 680,352,1 Nodesize: 48,28 Nodecolor: 49151,49151,49151 Determ Q__therefore_probabl Title: Q: therefore probably Definition: D__hoek_et_al_2002__+R__if_the_effect_was+W__design_was_~~ approp Nodelocation: 680,424,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodecolor: 19661,48336,65535 Constant W__design_was_approp Title: W: Design was appropriate Definition: B__greenland__cohort Nodelocation: 680,488,1 Nodesize: 52,24 Nodecolor: 65535,31131,19661 Constant C__traffic_pm_increa Title: C: Traffic PM increases cardiopulm mortality Description: Hoek et al (Lancet 2002) found out in a cohort study th~~ at a higway near home was a risk factor for overall and cardiopulmona~~ ry mortality. The study was well designed and performed, and the resu~~ lts are convincing, althought the risk estimates were large. However,~~ the exposure estimation was based on the vicinity of a major road an~~ d black smoke and nitric dioxide ambient concentrations. The current ~~ knowledge tends to associate especially fine particles (PM) with card~~ iopulmonary mortality, and in this study the exposure measure clearly~~ was an indicator of traffic-related PM. However, other explanations ~~ exist as well, and e.g. noise was not ruled out as a confounder.~ Taken together, the study increases the plausibility of PM being caus~~ ally linked to cardiopulmonary mortality. Definition: Q__therefore_probabl+Pm_plausibility Nodelocation: 792,424,1 Nodesize: 48,40 Windstate: 2,412,106,476,224 Nodecolor: 65535,31131,19661 Variable D__harry_is_born_in_ Title: D: Harry is born in Bermuda Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 576,136,1 Nodesize: 48,28 Nodecolor: 52425,39321,65535 Variable W__because_b__those_ Title: W: because~ B: those born in Bermuda are citizens of Great Britain Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 688,232,1 Nodesize: 48,55 Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Variable R__unless_harry_was_ Title: R: unless Harry was born during a holiday trip Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 688,56,1 Nodesize: 48,38 Nodecolor: 49151,49151,49151 Determ Q__therefore_certain Title: Q: therefore certainly Definition: D__harry_is_born_in_+R__unless_harry_was_+W__because_b__t~~ hose_ Nodelocation: 688,136,1 Nodesize: 48,29 Windstate: 1,0,-23 Nodecolor: 19661,48336,65535 Constant C__harry_is_a_citize Title: C: Harry is a citizen of GB Definition: Q__therefore_certain Nodelocation: 800,136,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodecolor: 65535,31131,19661 Variable Pm_plausibility Title: PM plausibility Units: probability Definition: 0.9 Nodelocation: 904,424,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,224 Nodecolor: 52425,39321,65535 Variable Model_variable Title: Model variable Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 376,448,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodecolor: 19661,48336,65535 Text Te3 Description: Here we show how to describe a complicated reasoning sta~~ rting with different kinds of data and ending up with a claim. This f~~ ollows the ideas of Stephen Toulmin (Uses of Argument, Cambridge Univ~~ ersity Press, 1958). In a simple case or drafting phase it is enough ~~ to create an argument by joining a piece of data to the claim. A clai~~ m node is often called an Argument node, but it should be remembered,~~ that a full argument includes the reasoning in addition to the outco~~ me. Instead of using several nodes to describe the reasoning, as is d~~ one here, it is often convenient to write it down inside the argument~~ node, in description attribute (see 'C: Traffic PM increases cardiop~~ ulm mortality'). Note that the arrows usually point from the model to~~ the claim. The logic of this is that the model is seen as a descript~~ ion of reality. And the reality affects the claim, not vice versa.~ ~ - Data (D) or premises describes the information that supports the cl~~ aim.~ - Warrant (W) makes the argument from data to claim a legitimate one.~~ Often it is not explicitly mentioned in discussion, but it should be~~ described in a pyrkilo unless it is obvious.~ - Backing (B) contains some background information needed for warrant~~ , and often it is practical to combine these two.~ - Qualifier (Q) describes the strength of the argument.~ - Rebuttal (R) defines the scope when the argument is valid. Nodelocation: 256,180,-1 Nodesize: 248,172 Close Argument_structure Module Less_important_node_ Title: Less important node types Author: jtue Date: 28. Junta 2004 18:03 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 736,480,1 Nodesize: 48,29 Diagstate: 1,257,40,510,515,17 Module Set_module_ Title: Set~ 9L3T Description: The set module is used as a set containing items, such a~~ s a set of emission sources summing up to the total emission. However~~ , it is not possible to refer to a module. Therefore a set node is us~~ ed instead of the module for refering in the model. If there are item~~ s that belong to several sets, aliases are created and placed in each~~ set module. A set node is located in the respective set module. Colo~~ ur 9L3T. Author: jtue Date: 30. Octta 2003 10:34 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 56,144,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Diagstate: 1,60,78,398,477,17 Nodecolor: 1,52427,26212 Variable Set_9l3t Title: Set~ 9L3T Description: This node is like an alias to a set module. The set modu~~ le is used as a set containing items, but it is not possible to refer~~ to a module. Therefore a set node is created, and it is used instead~~ of the module for refering in the model.~ If there are items that belong to several sets, aliases are created a~~ nd placed in each set. Set node is located in the respective set modu~~ le. Colour 9L3T. Definition: Item1+Item2+Item3+Item4+Item5 Nodelocation: 48,24,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 1,724,97 Nodecolor: 1,52427,26212 Variable Item5 Title: Item5 Description: This is one item belonging to the set 'Set'. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 168,24,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Variable Item1 Title: Item1 Description: This is one item belonging to the set 'Set'. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 168,248,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Variable Item2 Title: Item2 Description: This is one item belonging to the set 'Set'. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 168,192,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Variable Item3 Title: Item3 Description: This is one item belonging to the set 'Set'. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 168,136,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Variable Item4 Title: Item4 Description: This is one item belonging to the set 'Set'. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 168,80,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Close Set_module_ Variable Model_place__holder_ Title: Model place- holder 7L2B Description: Shows that there is a need for a model, but it is not ye~~ t defined explicitly. Colour 7L2B. Model prototype has the same meani~~ ng, either can be used depending on whether a node or a module is mor~~ e convenient. Colour 7L2B. Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 56,88,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodecolor: 52429,65535,39321 Module Model_prototype Title: Model prototype Description: Shows that there is a need for a model, but it is not ye~~ t defined explicitly. Colour 7L2B. Placeholder for a model has the sa~~ me meaning, either can be used depending on whether a node or a modul~~ e is more convenient. Colour 7L2B. Author: mtad Date: 16. Aprta 2003 12:56 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 56,32,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodecolor: 52429,65535,39321 Close Model_prototype Variable Question__lack_of_kn Title: Question, Lack of information 5R1T Description: A question or a lack of knowledge. An item that would be~~ important in a model, but there is no information about its value an~~ d it cannot therefore be used in calculations. Colour: 5R1T. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 56,272,1 Nodesize: 52,28 Nodecolor: 49151,49151,49151 Constant Constant1 Title: Constant Description: Note: colour depends on the source of information and ca~~ n be that of original data, author judgement or causal node. Do NOT u~~ se the automatic colour (L2B3), because it is reserved for the argume~~ nt. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 168,256,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Function Function_4r2b(param1) Title: Function 4R2B Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 168,32,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Paramnames: param1 Button Button_7r1t Title: Button~ 7R1T Description: Actually I don't know what can be done with buttons (Jou~~ ni Tuomisto 29.10.2003). Nodelocation: 168,88,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,356,138,476,224 Determ Q_1 Title: Q (qualifier)~ 8R3B Description: Shows the strength of an argument (or more precisely, th~~ e strength of the data, warrant, and backing to support the argument)~~ . There may be several pieces of data connected by several qualifiers~~ to one argument (claim). Colour: automatic (8R3B). Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 168,144,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Determ Nuisance_parameter_7 Title: Nuisance parameter 7L1B Description: This is used to emphasize that there is a lack of knowle~~ dge about this variable, but the variable is still important for unde~~ rstanding causality. In a well-built model, the nuisance parameters a~~ re cancelled out before the outcome, so that they do not affect the r~~ esult given the data used. E.g., we may want to model the human expos~~ ure to traffic emissions. We have an estimate about the relative cont~~ ributions of the most important sources to the exposure, but we don't~~ have absolute values from fate and dispersion models. Therefore, whe~~ n we want to express causal connections, we must Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 56,208,1 Nodesize: 48,29 Nodecolor: 58981,65535,52427 Variable Non_causal_node_8r2b Title: Non-causal node 8R2B Description: Non-causal nodes are used when the relation between node~~ s is not causal. Ice cream consumption and drowning accidents are cor~~ related (at least in Finland). One is not a cause of the other, but b~~ oth are affected by the outside temperature during summer. Non-causal~~ connections can be used in models for deducting values for one node~~ when the other is known. A typical example of this is a top-down mod~~ el, where we may have information on 1) total concentration of a poll~~ utant and 2) source contribution of certain emission sources (as a fr~~ action of total concentration). The source contribution is not a caus~~ al variable, it is merely an index of all (unknown) causal variables,~~ but it can be used to estimate the concentration caused by a particu~~ lar emission source. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 168,200,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,587,271,476,412 Nodecolor: 39321,55707,65535 Close Less_important_node_ Variable Log_3 Title: Log 3 Description: 29.10.2003 Jouni Tuomisto~ This is the third version of the Help model. Originally it was planne~~ d that it would habe been included in each model as a linked module, ~~ but soon it was found that the link caused much more trouble than ben~~ efit. It is therefore used as a stand alone model. However, it may be~~ a good idea to embed it into each model using Copy (not Link).~ N:\huippuyksikko\tutkimus\mallit\TainioTheUsesOfArgument.ana (7.5.200~~ 3) is closed and connected to this file in the module 'Argument struc~~ ure'. It is edited to reflect the current thinking about the argument~~ structure. Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 736,368,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Windstate: 2,433,83,476,398 Nodecolor: 65535,54067,19661 Nodefont: Arial, 13 Objective Preference_8l4b Title: Preference~ 8L4B Description: A value or preference. Colour 8L4B. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 280,448,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodecolor: 5,65535,1 Text Introduction_to_pyrk Title: Introduction to pyrkilo diagrams Description: Pyrkilo diagram method (or structured deliberation as it~~ is sometimes called) has been developed to facilitate the Science-Po~~ licy Interface.~ There is a need for methods facilitating the flow of information and ~~ understanding between science and policy. The principle is to describ~~ e a risk situation in a formal manner. Pyrkilo is an enhanced causal ~~ diagram that contains items along a causal pathway (or network) from ~~ e.g. abatement strategies to emissions to dispersion to exposure to e~~ ffects. It has been designed to describe also other than causal conne~~ ctions such as non-causal reasoning, values, preferences, and argumen~~ ts.~ ~ These diagrams use Analytica(TM) platform, a graphical Monte Carlo si~~ mulation program. It is based on nodes (or variables or objects). The~~ y are used to describe and define all the pieces needed for a descrip~~ tion of the situation under scrutiny. ~ ~ Many nodes are used as described in Analytica manuals. However, there~~ are also special colours and shapes representing features that are i~~ mportant for pyrkilo diagrams. See Description of each node for more ~~ details. You can see the definitions and descriptions by clicking or ~~ double-clicking the nodes. Nodelocation: 408,124,-1 Nodesize: 400,116 Windstate: 2,402,92,530,558 Constant Read_more_about_pyrk Title: Read more about pyrkilo Description: Understanding of a particular risk develops simultaneou~~ sly at various levels and using differently structured methods. At on~~ e end there is a "discussion layer": political and public discussions~~ about risks of a hazard with a wide interest on e.g. economical cons~~ equences of available decision options, public health, and social jus~~ tification equity. This discussion is sometimes poorly structured and~~ does not give scientists or risk assessors clear questions that coul~~ d be answered by scientific methods. At the other end there is a "mod~~ elling layer": models dealing with specific questions such as air con~~ centrations of a pollutant from a specific source or risk-benefit ana~~ lyses of particular actions. The models are complex and use several a~~ ssumptions that are not abvious to outsiders.~ ~ There is a need for methods facilitating the flow of information and ~~ understanding between the existing layers. Pyrkilo (from the Finnish ~~ word pyrkiŠ, to aim at) diagrams aim at offering an interface between~~ the two disciplines. The principle is to describe a risk situation i~~ n a formal manner. It is an enhanced causal diagram that contains ite~~ ms along the causal pathway (or network) from e.g. emissions to dispe~~ rsion to exposure to effects. It has been designed to describe also o~~ ther than causal connections such as values, preferences, and argumen~~ ts.~ ~ The pyrkilo method has several objecitves. The structure is relativel~~ y easily understandable and readable. It has a basic structure simila~~ r to but simpler than mathematical causal models. Translation into a ~~ natural language or mathematical model is relatively easy, as is requ~~ ired from an interface. The diagram is fast to build with little data~~ , and the critical parts of the diagram can subsequently be developed~~ into a full-scale model. It is easy to expand into new areas, as the~~ political discussion proceeds. Because of its structured and formal ~~ nature, it requires that many assumptions are made explicit unlike in~~ political rhetoric, and therefore it is easier to identify possibly ~~ illogical or conflicting issues. It can be used to explore the validi~~ ty or importance of an aspect before it is brought into the other dis~~ cipline of heavy modelling or political discourse.~ Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 736,328,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,54,111,572,686 Constant Argument_1 Title: Scope~ 2L3B Description: A scope node is basically an argument. The bevel is used~~ to enhance the fact that the argument is about the scope of the mode~~ l, (i.e. about the existence of a node or module). Colour: automatic ~~ (2L3B). Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 280,336,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: 65535,31131,19661 Close Help1 Module Pm_risk_model Title: PM risk model Description: This part of the model calculates risk of fine particles~~ due to heavy-duty vehicles and compares different health outcomes of~~ EU-legistlations (so called EURO-emission standards). Author: olex Date: 21. Marta 2005 11:58 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 320,88,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Diagstate: 1,405,3,593,464,17 Module Emission_model Title: Emission model Description: Fine particle emission due to heavy-duty vehicles. Author: mtad Date: 21. Marta 2005 11:58 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 240,104,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Diagstate: 1,94,-9,818,605,17 Index Pollutant Title: Pollutant Description: Air pollutants, classification by YTV. Definition: ['Primary PM','NOx','HC','CO','CO2'] Nodelocation: 352,336,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Windstate: 2,478,44,476,476 Nodecolor: 39321,39325,65535 Index Vehicletype Title: vehicletype Description: 1) Pakettiautot (ilman katalysaattoria, katalysaattori~~ lla, diesel)~ 2) Linja-autot~ 3) Kuorma-autot ilman perŠvaunua~ 4) Kuorma-autot perŠvaunulla~ ~ Ei sisŠllŠ maastoajoneuvoja ja tyškoneita. Definition: ['Van','Bus','Six-wheeler','Tractor-trailer'] Nodelocation: 352,312,1 Nodesize: 52,12 Windstate: 2,102,90,508,481 Reference: www.lipasto.vtt.fi~ Vehicles Variable Log_emi1 Title: log1 Description: 28.7.2005~ Raskaat ajoneuvotyypit: Pakettiautot, linja-autot, kuorma-autot ip, k~~ uorma-autot perŠv. Laskenta on suoritettu mallin alueiden katu- ja ka~~ avateiden suoritteiden mukaan (paitsi Kauniaisissa keskimŠŠrŠisen suo~~ malaisen tiesuoritteen mukaan jaettuna Kauniaisten vŠkiluvulla).~ ~ Alueet: Helsinki, Vantaa, Espoo, Kauniainen~ ~ Vertailussa solmut "Total emission from heavyduty" bussien PM emissio~~ ja ylŠosan solmu "Bus PM emission", on aika suuret erot bussien pŠŠs~~ tšjen kohdalla. Selittyykš alueen mŠŠrittelystŠ vai ajoneuvokannan mu~~ uttumisella?~ ~ 22.8. Olli & Marko~ Raskaan liikenteen pŠŠstšt muodostuvat kolmessa EURO standardissa Tot~~ al emission from heavyduty (t/a), EURO III, IV & V standardien suhtee~~ llisista vŠhenemistŠ pienhiukkasten osalta ja liikennesuoritteen mŠŠr~~ Šn kasvusta. Aikaskenaarioina ovat standardien voimaantulovuodet (EUR~~ O III = 2000, EURO IV = 2005, EURO V = 2008)~ ~ 23.8.2005 Olli Leino~ 1) Solmussa "Total PM emission by EURO standards" on laskettuna tilan~~ ne, jos kaikki raskaat ajoneuvot olisivat standardin mukaisia. TŠhŠn ~~ ei ole laskettu liikennesuoritten kasvua. ~ 2) Solmussa "Total PM emissions 2000,2005,2008" on laskettuna VTT:n m~~ ukaisilla pŠŠstšarvioilla nŠiden vuosien pŠŠstšt sisŠltŠen myšs liike~~ nnesuoritteen kasvun ajoneuvotyypeittŠin. Huomattavaa on ettŠ vuoden ~~ 2000 pŠŠsšt on laskettu vuoden 2003 datasta, eikŠ se ole siis vuoden ~~ 2000 mitattu arvo vaan arvio taaksepŠin ajassa.~ ~ NŠiden kahden tulosten erot ovat suuret. VTT:n mukaiset pŠŠstšarviot ~~ ovat varmaankin realistisempia, mutta jos mallissa tutkitaan direktii~~ vien vaikutusta, niin tŠllšin saadaan direktiivin maksimivaikutus kun~~ oletetaan kaikkien raskaiden ajoneuvojen 'muuttuvan' uuden standardi~~ n mukaiseksi.~ ~ 24.8. Olli Leino~ Tarkista yksikšt tŠsmŠŠvŠtkš? ~ ~ 26.8. Olli Leino~ Solmussa "Total emission from heavy-duty oli Kauniaisten Van solussa ~~ virhe. 1.35 korjaus 0.927:ŠŠn. Ei vaikuta tuloksiin enempŠŠ kuin nelj~~ Šnteen merkitsevŠŠn numeroon.~ ~ Jos liitetŠŠn liikennesuoritteen kasvuennuste solmuun "Total PM emiss~~ ion by EURO standards", millainen jakauma (normal, triangular, unifor~~ m)? TŠllŠ hetkellŠ solmu "traffic growth" on piste-estimaatteina.~ ~ LisŠsin epŠvarmuudet "traffic growth" solmuun. KŠytin triangular-jaka~~ umaa seuraavasti:~ Moodi = piste-estimaatti~ Minimi = piste-estimaatista vŠhennetŠŠn seuraavan vuosiluvun traffic ~~ intensityn arvon ja piste-estimaatin erotus~ Maksimi = seuravan vuosiluvun traffic intensityn arvo~ ~ 29.8.2005 Olli Leino~ Jos solmu "traffic growth" lisŠtŠŠn vaikuttamaan solmuun "Total PM em~~ ission by EURO standards", vaihda indeksi "years" indeksiksi "Euro st~~ andard scenarios" jotta ei tule lisŠulottuvuutta taulukkoon turhaan. ~~ Vuodethan ovat EURO III = 2000, EURO IV = 2005 ja EURO V = 2008~ ~ 30.8.2005 Olli Leino~ LisŠsin liikenteen mŠŠrŠn ennusteen vuosille 2000, 2005 ja 2008 mukaa~~ n malliin solmuun "traffic volume prediction".~ ~ 20.9.2005 Olli Leino & Jouni Tuomisto~ - Kalojen pitoisuusdata fractiles->lognormal(geomean, geomSD)~ - Max hyšdyn vertailu. Kaikille EURO standard vaihtoehdoille vuoden 2~~ 008 liikennevoluumitaso ja vertailu taaksepŠin. Kuinka paljon siis on~~ mahdollista saada hyštyŠ siirtymisessŠ EURO-standardeissa. Vertailun~~ a, kuinka paljon hyštyŠ on saatavilla kaloissa BAU vs. Ban.~ - Ei VOI:ta vaan importance analysis~ - korjaa/tarkista importance PM~ ~ 29.9.2005 Olli Leino~ Vaihdoin liikennemŠŠrŠn ennusteen kaikille pŠŠtšsvaihtoehdoille vuode~~ n 2008 liikennemŠŠrŠn tasolle solmuun "traf vol 2008".~ ~ 13.7.2006 Olli Leino~ Iso hŠmmŠstys. Olen askarrellut BAU PM:n laskemisen parissa, mutta "T~~ otal emission from heavy-duty" solmuhan laskee juuri raskaan kaluston~~ PM vuosipŠŠstšŠ (t/a)?! Laskin tŠmŠn uuden emission vain yksikšssŠ g~~ /km ja siitŠ g/kWh. PitŠisihŠn noitten suhde kuitenkin sŠilyŠ samana ~~ yksikkšmuunnosten jŠlkeen? Eli onko ollut turhaa jobia vtt:n datan av~~ ulla selvittŠŠ BAU pm? Nyt siis EURO III standard scenarios-indexin e~~ ka rivi (=EURO III) on siis juuri BAU PM suoraan? Korvasin EURO III =~~ BAU~ ~ 26.9.2006 Olli Leino~ Solmussa Total emission from heavy-duty on EURO V indeksissŠ kerrottu~~ sekŠ PM factor BAU to EURO IV:llŠ ettŠ PM factor BAU to EURO V:llŠ. ~~ MiksihŠn nŠin. Poistin jŠlkimmŠisen kertoimen, sillŠ kummassakin stan~~ dardissa on sama pŠŠstšstandardi. Ainoa asia mikŠ tŠssŠ vaikuttaisi o~~ lisi mielestŠni liikennesuoritteen muutos.~ Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 736,24,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Windstate: 2,686,96,476,523 Nodecolor: 65535,54067,19661 Variable Total__emission_from Title: Total emission from heavy-duty Units: t/a Description: Emissions of heavy duty vehicles in Helsinki, Vantaa, Es~~ poo and Kauniainen (respectively). Results of year 2003. Emissions we~~ re calculated by data of road and street traffic of Helsinki, Vantaa ~~ and Espoo (see reference below "emissions"). Emissions of city of Kau~~ niainen were calculated by average finnish road and street traffic da~~ ta and proportioned by population of Kauniainen.~ ~ In this model, only PM emission are used in later calculations. Definition: FunctionOf(Table(Pollutant,Expr,Vehicletype)(~ (((40.9+26.29)+23.55)+0.927),(((26.31+10.84)+9.167)+0.441),(((32.55+1~~ 7.27)+13.35)+0.436),(((10.95+11.84)+9.266)+0.245),~ ((((40.9+26.29)+23.55)+0.927)*Pm_factor_euro_iii_t),((((26.31+10.84)+~~ 9.167)+0.441)*Pm_factor_euro_iii_t),((((32.55+17.27)+13.35)+0.436)*Pm~~ _factor_euro_iii_t),((((10.95+11.84)+9.266)+0.245)*Pm_factor_euro_iii~~ _t),~ (((((40.9+26.29)+23.55)+0.927)*Pm_factor_euro_iii_t)*Pm_factor_euro_i~~ v_to),(((((26.31+10.84)+9.167)+0.441)*Pm_factor_euro_iii_t)*Pm_factor~~ _euro_iv_to),(((((32.55+17.27)+13.35)+0.436)*Pm_factor_euro_iii_t)*Pm~~ _factor_euro_iv_to),(((((10.95+11.84)+9.266)+0.245)*Pm_factor_euro_ii~~ i_t)*Pm_factor_euro_iv_to),~ (((246.5+153.1)+133.2)+5.586),(((656.6+259.3)+217.8)+11.2),(((61.46+3~~ 21.9)+247.7)+8181),(((274.8+292.8)+229.9)+5.976),~ (((246.5+153.1)+133.2)+5.586),(((656.6+259.3)+217.8)+11.2),(((61.46+3~~ 21.9)+247.7)+8181),(((274.8+292.8)+229.9)+5.976),~ (((246.5+153.1)+133.2)+5.586),(((656.6+259.3)+217.8)+11.2),(((61.46+3~~ 21.9)+247.7)+8181),(((274.8+292.8)+229.9)+5.976),~ (((91.31+49.42)+40.01)+2.001),(((78.68+33.99)+28.96)+1.305),(((120.1+~~ 60.7)+46.26)+1.62),(((34.49+36.09)+28.1)+0.787),~ (((91.31+49.42)+40.01)+2.001),(((78.68+33.99)+28.96)+1.305),(((120.1+~~ 60.7)+46.26)+1.62),(((34.49+36.09)+28.1)+0.787),~ (((91.31+49.42)+40.01)+2.001),(((78.68+33.99)+28.96)+1.305),(((120.1+~~ 60.7)+46.26)+1.62),(((34.49+36.09)+28.1)+0.787),~ (((551.1+364.8)+296.7)+12.88),(((204.5+73.27)+61.71)+3.455),(((172.8+~~ 91.89)+71)+2.36),(((53.68+58.54)+45.62)+1.201),~ (((551.1+364.8)+296.7)+12.88),(((204.5+73.27)+61.71)+3.455),(((172.8+~~ 91.89)+71)+2.36),(((53.68+58.54)+45.62)+1.201),~ (((551.1+364.8)+296.7)+12.88),(((204.5+73.27)+61.71)+3.455),(((172.8+~~ 91.89)+71)+2.36),(((53.68+58.54)+45.62)+1.201),~ (((67.4K+38.44K)+33.85K)+1501),(((61.74K+25.32K)+21.32K)+1067),(((76.~~ 91K+41.64K)+32.25K)+1040),(((32.41K+36.86K)+28.36K)+738.1),~ (((67.4K+38.44K)+33.85K)+1501),(((61.74K+25.32K)+21.32K)+1067),(((76.~~ 91K+41.64K)+32.25K)+1040),(((32.41K+36.86K)+28.36K)+738.1),~ (((67.4K+38.44K)+33.85K)+1501),(((61.74K+25.32K)+21.32K)+1067),(((76.~~ 91K+41.64K)+32.25K)+1040),(((32.41K+36.86K)+28.36K)+738.1)~ )) Nodelocation: 360,264,1 Nodesize: 48,38 Windstate: 2,415,58,573,648 Defnstate: 2,40,83,1008,204,0,MIDM Valuestate: 2,384,43,624,276,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:0~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:9~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:2~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1~ Xmaximum:6~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:200~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:4~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Arial, 4 Reformdef: [Pollutant, Vehicletype ] Reformval: [Pollutant, Vehicletype ] Att__totalsindex: Index Vehicletype Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Reference: www.lipasto.vtt.fi~ Emissions~ ~ ~ Decision Euro_v_standard Title: EURO V standard Units: g/kWh Description: Maximum PM emission standards for particles set or plann~~ ed by EU for new heavy-duty vehicles. Coming into force in 2008. Definition: 0.02 Nodelocation: 504,32,1 Nodesize: 48,28 Nodecolor: 19661,65535,42597 Reference: Tainio et al. Risk analysis vol 25. No. 1.2005 Decision Euro_iv_standard__ Title: EURO IV standard ~ Units: g/kWh Description: Maximum PM emission standards for particles set or plann~~ ed by EU for new heavy-duty vehicles. Coming into force in 2005. Definition: 0.02 Nodelocation: 408,32,1 Nodesize: 48,28 Nodecolor: 19661,65535,42597 Reference: Tainio et al. Risk analysis vol 25. No. 1.2005 Decision Euro_iii_standard_ Title: EURO III standard~ Units: g/kWh Description: Maximum PM emission standards for particles set or plan~~ ned by EU for new heavy-duty vehicles. Came into force in 2000 Definition: 0.1 Nodelocation: 312,32,1 Nodesize: 48,28 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,224 Nodecolor: 19661,65535,42597 Reference: Tainio et al. Risk analysis vol 25. No. 1.2005 Variable Pm_factor_euro_iii_t Title: PM factor BAU to EURO IV Description: Time trend factor for fine particles emission (PM) accor~~ ding to transferring from EURO III to IV standard. Definition: Euro_iv_standard__/Bau2004 Nodelocation: 528,104,1 Nodesize: 48,29 Valuestate: 2,684,453,416,303,0,MIDM Variable Pm_factor_euro_iv_to Title: PM factor BAU to EURO V Description: Time trend factor for fine particles emission (PM) accor~~ ding to transferring from EURO IV to V standard. Definition: Euro_v_standard/Euro_iv_standard__~ Nodelocation: 360,112,1 Nodesize: 48,29 Valuestate: 2,296,306,416,303,0,MIDM Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 1 ] Variable Total_pm_emission_by Title: Total PM emission by EURO standards Units: t/a Description: This node is scaled to traffic volume intesity of year 2~~ 008 (EURO V) Definition: Total__emission_from[Pollutant='Primary PM']*Traf_vol_200~~ 8 Nodelocation: 360,408,1 Nodesize: 48,38 Windstate: 2,518,290,470,576 Valuestate: 2,699,352,416,303,0,MIDM Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Chance Traf_vol_2008 Title: traf vol 2008 Description: Relative traffic volume prediction in 2008 compared to t~~ ime of emission measured (2003).~ ~ Triangular distribution (min, mode, max) is used:~ Min: Ratio of year 2005 divided by year 2003 traffic intensity (three~~ years back in time from year 2008)~ Mode: Ratio of year 2008 divided by year 2003 (year of emissions meas~~ ured)~ Max: Ratio of year 2011 divided by year 2003 traffic intensity~ (three years forward in time from year 2008) Definition: Table(Vehicletype)(~ Triangular((4259/4217),(4344/4217),(4428/4217)),Triangular((568/568),~~ (568/568),(568/568)),Triangular((3163/3012),(3404/3012),(3615/3012)),~~ Triangular((3163/3012),(3404/3012),(3615/3012))) Nodelocation: 360,488,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,574,453,478,273 Defnstate: 2,310,357,679,285,0,MIDM Valuestate: 2,688,216,416,303,1,PDFP Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Reference: suorite Decision Euro_vi_standard Title: EURO VI standard Definition: 0.02 Nodelocation: 600,32,1 Nodesize: 48,28 Windstate: 2,102,90,500,373 Reference: EURO_VI Log: Miten tŠmŠ on, onko 0.02 vai 0.002? Katso reference. Module Bau_pm Title: bau pm Description: Present (2004) heavy-duty PM emission (BAU PM) in Helsin~~ ki metropolitan area. Author: olex Date: 5. Julta 2006 8:35 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 528,208,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Diagstate: 1,429,-15,580,709,17 Variable Hd_traf_intens Title: HD Traf intens Units: 10^6 km/a Description: Annual kilometers driven with a heavy-duty vehicle type~~ in Helsinki, Vantaa, Espoo and Kauniainen, respectively in data. Van~~ s come in three different types: without catalyzer, with catalyzer an~~ d diesel. Definition: Table(Vehicletype)(~ (((((14.59+3.349)+205.4)+((8.706+1.998)+122.6))+((7.79+1.788)+109.7))~~ +((0.326+0.075)+4.584)),(((62.11+28)+23.7)+1.063),(((81.73+49.52)+39.~~ 28)+1.112),(((29.7+35.42)+27.32)+0.652)) Nodelocation: 176,560,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Defnstate: 2,463,228,538,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 2,10,582,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Att__totalsindex: Index Vehicletype Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Reference: Emissions Variable Hd_traf_intens_fract Title: HD traffic volume fraction Description: Fractions of annual kilometers driven with heavy-duty ve~~ hicle. Not used for later calculations. Just to give comparison. Definition: Hd_traf_intens/sum(Hd_traf_intens,vehicletype) Nodelocation: 64,560,1 Nodesize: 48,29 Valuestate: 2,773,527,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 39321,55707,65535 Att__totalsindex: Index Vehicletype Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Variable A Title: log Description: 5.7.2006 Olli Leino~ Tarvittavia solmuja~ - raskaiden ajoneuvojen mŠŠrŠjakauma ajoneuvotyypeittŠn (van, six-whe~~ eler, tractortrailer, bus)~ - vuosittain ajetut kilometrit ajoneuvotyypeittŠn~ - hiukkaspŠŠstšt ajoneuvotyypeittŠin, eri kuormilla ja ajamistyyleill~~ Š (oletetaanko keskimŠŠrŠiset arvot)~ - vans hiukkaspŠŠstš~ ~ On paljon pakko tehdŠ oletuksia tŠssŠkin. Van-ajoneuvoluokasta ei ole~~ vielŠ dataa Bau_PM solmuun. Otinkin alustavan arvion suhteuttamalla ~~ sen bussiin. Tuskin on suhde muuttunut paljoakaan vuosien varrella. T~~ aitaa olla aika hyvŠ arvio.~ ~ ~ 11.7. Tee BAU-solmusta se oikea laskenta. Liite 4 raketruckin avulla ~~ saadaan keskimŠŠrŠiset PM-pŠŠstšt nykyŠŠn ja sitten painotetaan kulku~~ neuvoilla ajetuilla kilometreillŠ. Vaneilla on vain jakelusykli, Six-~~ wheelereillŠ ja tractor-trailereilla on maantiesyklin ja moottorities~~ yklin keskiarvo. Bussin arvot pitŠŠ vielŠ hankkia.~ ~ 11.7.2006 Olli Leino~ Sain BAU:n laskennan version valmiiksi. Mean 0.77 kuulostaa ihan usko~~ ttavalta. Aika iso tosin aikaisempiin laskelmiin, mutta pienempi kuit~~ enkin kuin EURO III standardin raja.~ ~ 11.7.2006 Olli leino~ Tuloksena on nyt liikennesuoritteella painotettu ominaispŠŠstš, joko ~~ g/km tai g/kWh. ~ ~ 13.7.2006 Olli Leino~ Mihin kohtaan BAU2004 lisŠtŠŠn? Ei laiteta EURO III:n tilalle emissio~~ n moduliin. PitŠiskš tehdŠ indeksi mortality assessment moduliin?~ ~ 26.9.2006 Olli Leino~ Vaihdoin Bau PM modulin exposure modulista emission moduliin ja vaihd~~ oin decision solmuihin EURO III:n paikalle Bau PM.~ Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 48,248,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Windstate: 2,102,90,479,273 Nodecolor: 65535,59795,19661 Variable Van Title: van Units: g/km Description: Triangular distribution: mode = mean(18 t van and 26 t v~~ an). Min (=0.114 g/km) = 26 t Van 0-kuorma. Max (=0.211 g/km) = 26 t ~~ Van 2/2- kuorma) Definition: var x:= (0.127+0.157)/2;~ Triangular( 0.114, x, 0.211) Nodelocation: 112,296,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 2,40,50,416,303,1,PDFP Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Variable Bus1 Title: bus Description: Rakebus page 23 Definition: Table(Bustype)(~ 0.25,0.63,0.16,0.23,0.27,0.17,0.4,0.3,0.15,0.33,0.25,0.13,0.41,0.05,0~~ .02,0.2,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02) Nodelocation: 240,296,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Defnstate: 2,71,263,430,520,0,MIDM Valuestate: 2,659,162,416,534,0,MIDM Att__totalsindex: Index Bustype Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Reference: Rakebus Variable Tractortrailer Title: Tractor-trailer Units: g/km Description: Min/max are the lowest and highest value depending on lo~~ ad and type of driving cycle. Definition: var x:= (0.092+0.083)/2;~ triangular(0.072, x, 0.116) Nodelocation: 496,296,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 2,56,66,416,303,1,PDFP Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Variable Sixwheeler Title: Six-wheeler Units: g/km Description: Min/max are the largest and highest value depending on l~~ oad and type of driving cycle. Definition: var x:= (0.087+0.077)/2;~ triangular(0.071,x,0.103) Nodelocation: 368,296,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 2,40,50,416,303,1,PDFP Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Index Bustype Title: bustype Definition: ['EURO1A','EURO1B','EURO2A','EURO2B','EURO2Bn=2','EURO2C'~~ ,'EURO2D','EURO2F','EURO3C','EURO3An=2','EURO3A','EURO3Cn=5','CRT A',~~ 'CRT An=2','CRTC','CRT C ind2','CRT C EURO3','CNG A','CNG B','CNG A n~~ =3','EEV B','EEV D','EEV E'] Nodelocation: 240,328,1 Nodesize: 44,12 Windstate: 2,-68,148,476,224 Valuestate: 2,264,274,413,543,0,MIDM Variable Busdistribution Title: busdistribution Units: g/km Description: Mean = 0.1774~ SD=0.1638 Definition: var sd:=0.1638;~ ~ var n:=normal(average(bus1),sd);~ if n<0 then 0 else n Nodelocation: 240,384,1 Nodesize: 52,24 Windstate: 2,426,132,476,224 Valuestate: 2,47,191,416,303,1,PDFP Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:0~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:6~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:2~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:0.9~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Arial, 5 Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Variable Table_bau Title: Table BAU Definition: Table(Vehicletype)(~ Van,Busdistribution,Sixwheeler,Tractortrailer) Nodelocation: 304,472,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 2,737,29,416,303,0,MEAN Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:0~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:6~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:2~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:0.9~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:75~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:4~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Arial, 8 Att__totalsindex: Index Vehicletype Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Variable Weighted_bau Title: weighted BAU g/km Units: g/km Description: BAU PM which is weighted by traffic volume fraction. Definition: sum(Table_bau*Hd_traf_intens)/(sum(Hd_traf_intens)) Nodelocation: 304,560,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 2,675,309,541,304,0,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:0~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:6~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:2~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:0.12~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:250~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:4~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Arial, 8 Att__totalsindex: Index Vehicletype Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Variable Bau_g_kwh Title: Bau g/kWh Units: g/kWh Description: Tulokset yksikšistŠ g/km yksikkššn g/kWh saadaan yksinke~~ rtaisesti jakamalla 1.8:lla g/km. LŠhde raketruck tai rakebus.~ ~ 13.7.2006 Olli Leino~ mean=0.07732~ sd=0.01255 Definition: Weighted_bau/1.8 Nodelocation: 424,560,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 2,710,627,498,199,0,STAT Att__totalsindex: Index Vehicletype Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Variable Bau2004 Title: BAU2004 Description: 13.7.2006 Olli Leino~ mean=0.07732~ sd=0.01255 Definition: Normal( Bau_g_kwh, 0.01255 ) Nodelocation: 424,472,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,102,90,490,337 Valuestate: 2,276,358,416,303,0,MEAN Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Close Bau_pm Close Emission_model Module Exposure_model Title: Exposure model Description: Exposures of heavy duty traffic. Author: mtad Date: 21. Marta 2005 11:58 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 240,192,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Diagstate: 1,497,440,936,554,17 Variable Road_traffic_a Title: Road traffic PM a Units: µg/m^3 Definition: Var a := (Pers_out[PM_class='Secondary']*Long_range_trans~~ port);~ a:= (Expolis__helsinki[Pm_class='CoPM', Environment='Personal']-a);~ a:=a*Pm_exposure_fraction[Pm_source='Road traffic'];~ a Nodelocation: 288,152,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,595,112,506,470 Defnstate: 1,216,226,695,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 2,514,71,559,529,0,MEAN Nodecolor: 19661,48336,65535 Reformval: [Long_range_transport, Weight_factors_ ] Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Variable Pers_out Title: Personal/ outdoor Units: - Definition: (Expolis__helsinki[Environment='Personal']/Expolis__helsi~~ nki[Environment='Ambient']) Nodelocation: 400,152,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,525,146,476,224 Valuestate: 2,1041,-3,186,191,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 19661,48336,65535 Reformval: [Environment, Pm_class ] Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Chance Long_range_transport Title: Long-range transport (Elrt) Units: µg/m^3 Definition: triangular(1,2,2.5) Indexvals: ['Transport, Low','Transport, Central','Transport, High'] Nodelocation: 288,240,1 Nodesize: 48,29 Windstate: 2,102,90,578,407 Defnstate: 1,306,109,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 2,40,50,416,303,1,PDFP Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Reference: 21. ApSimon, H. M., Gonzales del Campo, M. T., & Adams H.S~~ . (2001). Modelling long-range transport of primary particulate mater~~ ial over Europe. Atmospheric Environment, 35, 343-352. Variable Ultra___traffic Title: ULTRA - traffic Units: µg/m^3 Definition: Var a:=Ultra[Ultra='Local traffic']*Ultra[Ultra='PM2.5 to~~ tal'];~ a:=average(a)~ {2.45} Nodelocation: 624,152,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,393,143,476,224 Valuestate: 2,752,10,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 19661,48336,65535 Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Reference: Vallius, M., Lanki, T., Tiittanen, P., Koistinen, K., Ruus~~ kanen, J., and Pekkanen, J. (2003). Source~ apportionment of urban ambient PM2.5 in two successive measurement ca~~ mpaigns in Helsinki, Finland. Atmospheric Environment, 37(5), 615-623~~ . Variable Road_traffic_b Title: Road traffic PM b Units: µg/m^3 Definition: Pers_out[Pm_class='CoPM']*Ultra___traffic Nodelocation: 512,152,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,102,90,500,389 Valuestate: 2,350,-3,206,130,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 19661,48336,65535 Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Index Pm_class Title: PM class Definition: ['CoPM','Secondary','Soil','Detergents','Sea salt'] Nodelocation: 288,104,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,458 Index Environment Title: Environment Definition: ['Ambient','Indoor','Work','Personal'] Nodelocation: 288,72,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Windstate: 2,102,90,524,323 Chance Road_traffic Title: Road traffic PM Units: µg/m^3 Definition: using a:= bernoulli(0.7) do~ using b:= a*Road_traffic_a + (1-a)*Road_traffic_b do ~ b Nodelocation: 384,256,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,496,249,476,479 Defnstate: 1,150,469,905,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 2,863,28,345,155,0,MEAN Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:0~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:6~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:2~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1.2~ Xmaximum:2.6~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:20~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Arial, 8 Reformval: [Self, Long_range_transport ] Displayoutputs: Constant The_exposure_was_est Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Variable Ultra Title: ULTRA Units: µg/m^3 or fraction Description: Table 1. Descriptive statistics for 29 October 1996Š28 A~~ pril 1997 (total n = 83) and 2 November 1998Š30 April 1999 (total n =~~ 164) (median PM2.5 in µg/m^3).~ ~ Fig.3. Contributions (%) of the identifed source components to averag~~ e PM2.5 concentration. Definition: Table(Self,Ultra_years)(~ 8.3,10.6,~ 0.3,0.23,~ 0.51,0.5,~ 0.12,0.05,~ 0.03,0.13,~ 0.02,0.07,~ 0.02,0.02~ ) Indexvals: ['PM2.5 total','Local traffic','LRTAP','Crustal source','~~ Oil combustion','Salt / Salt & Pb','Unidentified'] Nodelocation: 736,152,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,258,33,599,581 Defnstate: 2,17,52,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 2,753,463,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Reformdef: [Ultra_years, Self ] Reformval: [Ultra_years, Self ] Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Reference: 23. Vallius, M., Lanki, T., Tiittanen, P., Koistinen, K., ~~ Ruuskanen, J., and Pekkanen, J. (2003). Source apportionment of urban~~ ambient PM2.5 in two successive measurement campaigns in Helsinki, F~~ inland. Atmospheric Environment, 37(5), 615-623. Index Ultra_years Title: ULTRA years Definition: ['1996-97','1998-99'] Nodelocation: 736,184,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,359 Variable Pm_exposure_fraction Title: PM exposure fractions Units: - Definition: Var a := (Weight_factors_*Primary_pm_emission);~ Var b := Sum(a,Pm_source);~ a/b Nodelocation: 168,152,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,542,291,476,524 Valuestate: 2,483,58,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 19661,48336,65535 Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Variable Primary_pm_emission Title: Primary PM emission Units: kg/a Definition: Table(Pm_source)(~ 1.064M,50K,60K,502K,40K) Nodelocation: 48,152,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,102,90,608,449 Defnstate: 2,543,8,339,264,0,MIDM Valuestate: 2,865,1,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Displayinputs: , Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 1 ] Reference: MŠkelŠ, K. (2002). Personal communication, Senior Research~~ Scientist, VTT (Technical research Centre of Finland), Building and ~~ transport.~ ~ YTV, Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council. (1998). Ilmanlaatu pŠŠkaupun~~ kiseudulla vuonna 1997 [Air Quality in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area~~ in 1997]. Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council Publication Series 1999~~ :1 (in Finnish). Chance Weight_factors_ Title: Weight factors (wfi) (Table III) Units: - Definition: Table(Pm_source)(~ 0.1,1,1,Triangular(1,2,3),1) Nodelocation: 168,240,1 Nodesize: 52,28 Windstate: 2,278,310,614,575 Defnstate: 2,345,60,339,287,0,MIDM Valuestate: 2,864,340,416,299,0,MEAN Nodecolor: 52425,39321,65535 Reformdef: [Self, Pm_source ] Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Index Pm_source Title: PM source Definition: ['Energy production','Other point sources','Surface sourc~~ es','Road traffic','Harbor'] Nodelocation: 48,184,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Windstate: 2,567,60,437,464 Valuestate: 2,487,140,416,321,0,MIDM Variable Expolis__helsinki Title: EXPOLIS-~ Helsinki Definition: Table(Pm_class,Environment)(~ 3.547,2.6,2.95,3.506032,~ 4.668,3.31,3.38,3.35008,~ 1.6,2.49,2.42,2.8960864,~ 0,0.54,0.22,0.670016,~ 0.3,0.23,0.13,0.23311936~ ) Nodelocation: 288,32,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,102,90,521,467 Defnstate: 2,574,53,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 2,651,-4,416,300,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Reformdef: [Environment, Pm_class ] Reformval: [Environment, Pm_class ] Att__totalsindex: Index Pm_class Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Reference: 22. Koistinen, K., Edwards, R. D., Mathys, P., Ruuskanen, ~~ J., KŸnzli, N., & Jantunen, M. (2004). Sources of fine particulate ma~~ tter in personal exposures and residential indoor, residential outdoo~~ r and workplace microenvironments in the Helsinki phase of the EXPOLI~~ S study. Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment & Health, 30 suppl~~ . 2, 36-46. Constant The_exposure_was_est Title: The exposure was estimated by using two models Nodelocation: 520,256,1 Nodesize: 56,36 Aliases: Alias The_exposure_was_es1 Displayinputs: Chance Road_traffic Variable Log_exp1 Title: log Description: 23.8.2005 Olli Leino~ Mallin ylŠpuoli Road traffic PM solmu mukaanluettuna kelpaa entisellŠ~~ Šn. Bus fractionien tilalle heavy-duty vehicles.~ ~ Laittaakko "HD PM fractio" osuudet raskaat ajoneuvotyypeittŠin (Van, ~~ Bus, Trucks), eikŠ lasketa koko raskaiden ajoneuvotyyppien PM emissio~~ ta koko liikenteestŠ? Kummin pŠin? Laitoin ajoneuvotyypeittŠin.~ ~ 26.8. Olli Leino~ Solmu "HD PM fraction" voisi olla jakaumana (fractiles?) ilmoitettu p~~ iste-estimaatin sijaan (N:\YEP\publications\In_progress\Leino_PMvsDx\~~ materials\Liisa2003Emissions_etelasuomi2003.xls raskaiden ajoneuvoj~~ en prosenttiosuudet oikealla reunalla laskettuina. Helsinki\Vantaa\Es~~ poo\Kauniainen = 0.6352, 0.5986, 0.5895,0,5818. Painotettaisiko tŠtŠ~~ vielŠ kaupunkikohtaisen suoritteen mŠŠrŠllŠ?~ ~ 29.9.2005 Olli Leino~ Kerroin "HD traffic PM" vielŠ "Pm em road" solmulla? NythŠn tulos ol~~ isi koko liikenteen pŠŠstšt. Aiemmin oli kerrottu koko liikenteen pŠŠ~~ stšt ("Road traffic PM") vain raskaan liikenteen kulkuneuvojen osuuks~~ illa. Olisi ollut siis liioiteltu tulos. Verrattuna kaasubussimallii~~ n on bussien osuus liikenteen kokonaispienhiukkasemissioista vain 5.8~~ % (kaasubussimallissa 17.8%). Erot johtuvat datasta: PM Emissions verrattuna kaasubussin dataan: ~ Cars=1.690e+005~ Trucks/vans=2.500e+005~ Busses=8.300e+004~ ~ Vaihdoin solmun "PM em road" myšs (kuten solmu "Total PM emission by ~~ EURO standards" vuoden 2008 tasoon 2003 tason sijasta. Ei tullut huom~~ attavaa eroa raskaiden ajoneuvojen osuuksiin. Pakettiautojen osuus hi~~ ukan kasvoi.~ ~ 3.4.2006 Olli Leino~ Muuttujat Va4 ja Va3 ovat Markon tekemiŠ. Katso niiden laskenta. PŠŠs~~ tšjen kehityksen laskenta aiemmin perustuivat vaan busseille. Samansu~~ untainen trendi oletetaan muullekin raskaalle liikenteelle. TŠtŠ vois~~ i hiukan tarkastaa vielŠ.~ ~ 5.7.2006 Olli Leino~ Katso HD traffic PM solmu. Onko tŠssŠ virhe, tai mikŠ on perustelu ke~~ rtoa 'PM_em_road' solmulla? Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 864,48,1 Nodesize: 52,12 Windstate: 2,81,29,476,327 Nodecolor: 65535,54067,19661 Variable Hd_pm_fraction Title: HD PM fraction Units: - Description: Fraction of PM emission of heavy-duty vehicles. Definition: Pm_em_road1/sum(Pm_em_road1) Nodelocation: 160,320,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 2,705,-10,416,303,0,MIDM Att__totalsindex: Index Vehicletype Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Variable Pm_em_road1 Title: PM emis HD vs All traffic Units: - Description: Fractions of heavy-duty vehicletype PM emission from all~~ vehicles (car+van+bus+six-wheeler+tractor-trailer+bikes) PM emissio~~ ns (see reference below "PM emissions"). ~ Factor 32.55/(32.55+10.95) in definiton of Six-wheeler describes prop~~ ortion of six-wheelers of all trucks in Helsinki (see reference below~~ "emissions"). ~ Factor 10.95/(32.55+10.95) in definiton of Tractor-trailer describes ~~ proportion of tractor-trailers of all trucks in Helsinki (see referen~~ ce below "emissions") Definition: Table(Vehicletype)(~ (533/((((889+533)+110)+648)+13)),(110/((((889+533)+110)+648)+13)),((6~~ 48/((((889+533)+110)+648)+13))*(32.55/(32.55+10.95))),((648/((((889+5~~ 33)+110)+648)+13))*(10.95/(32.55+10.95)))) Nodelocation: 160,384,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,576,318,529,510 Defnstate: 2,456,37,422,174,0,MIDM Valuestate: 2,541,-3,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Displayinputs: , Att__totalsindex: Index Vehicletype Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Reference: www.lipasto.vtt.fi/lipasto/liisa/paastodata.htm~ PM Emissions~ ~ Emissions Variable Hd_traffic_pm Title: HD traffic PM Units: µg/m^3 Description: Hd traffic PM exposure by vehicle types. Definition: Hd_pm_fraction*Road_traffic*sum(Pm_em_road1) Nodelocation: 272,320,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,-14,7,478,404 Valuestate: 2,567,-10,465,192,0,MIDM Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Log: 4.7.2006 Olli Leino~ Miksi tŠssŠ on kerrottu 'sum(Pm-em_road1' solmulla? Ok Variable Hd_pm_scenarios Title: HD PM scenarios Units: µg/m^3 Definition: FunctionOf(using a:= Total_pm_emission_by/Total_pm_emissi~~ on_by[Expr='BAU'] do~ a*Hd_traffic_pm~ ~ {using a:= Total_pm_emission_by/Total_pm_emission_by[Euro_standard_sc~~ enar='EURO III'] do~ a*Hd_traffic_pm}) Nodelocation: 272,384,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,511 Valuestate: 2,613,147,416,303,0,MIDM Att__totalsindex: Index Vehicletype Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Log: 14.7.2006 Olli Leino~ MitŠ tŠssŠ solmussa on tarkoitus oikein tapahtua? EURO IV ja EURO V t~~ ulevat mukaan emissio-modulista. Close Exposure_model Module Dose_response_model Title: Dose-response model Description: Dose-response of fine particles. Author: mtad Date: 21. Marta 2005 11:58 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 240,264,1 Nodesize: 56,24 Diagstate: 1,599,58,574,379,17 Index Cause_of_death Title: Cause of death Definition: ['Cardiopulmonary','Lung ca','All others','All causes'] Nodelocation: 200,232,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,425 Variable Mortality_rate1 Title: Mortality rate Units: m^3/µg Definition: Crude_mortality_rat2*plausibility Nodelocation: 432,64,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,470 Valuestate: 2,96,519,326,199,0,MEAN Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:0~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:6~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:-0.03~ Xmaximum:0.06~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:100~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:4~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Arial, 6 Att__totalsindex: Index M_step_202 Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Chance Plausibility Title: Plausibility Units: - Description: Includes mechanistic plausibility (coming from toxicolog~~ ical and epidemiological evidence). This plausibility is especially f~~ or traffic exhaust primary particles. Does not include aspects relate~~ d to differential potencies of different particle types. Definition: Probtable(Cause_of_death,Self)(~ 0.3,0.7,~ 0.1,0.9,~ 0.9,0.1,~ 0.2,0.8~ ) Nodelocation: 440,128,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,509 Defnstate: 2,28,305,416,303,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Plausibility2 Nodecolor: 52425,39321,65535 Reformdef: [Self, Cause_of_death ] Domain: [0,1] Displayinputs: Object Constant Displayoutputs: Constant Plausibility_was_def Variable Chronic_mortality_rr Title: Chronic mortality RR Units: RR per PM contrast Description: Original results from PM cohort studies. Definition: Table(Cause_of_death,Ci,Study)(~ 1.37,1.09,~ 1.11,1.03,~ 1.68,1.16,~ 1.37,1.14,~ 0.81,1.04,~ 2.31,1.23,~ 1.01,1.01,~ 0.79,0.95,~ 1.3,1.06,~ 1.26,1.06,~ 1.08,1.02,~ 1.47,1.11~ ) Nodelocation: 200,64,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,-56,83,569,548 Defnstate: 2,28,215,567,291,0,MIDM Valuestate: 2,21,363,659,277,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Reformdef: [Ci, Cause_of_death ] Reformval: [Cause_of_death, Ci ] Displayinputs: , Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Reference: 16. Dockery, D. W., Pope, C. A., III, Xu, X., Spengler, J.~~ D., Ware, J. H., Fay, M. E., Ferris, B. G., Jr., & Speizer F. E. (19~~ 93). An association between air pollution and mortality in six U.S. c~~ ities. The New England Journal Oof Medicine, 329(24), 1753-1759.~ ~ 17. Pope, C. A. III, Burnett, R. T., Thun, M. J., Calle, E. E., Krews~~ ki, D., Ito, K., & Thurston, G. D. (2002). Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmory~~ Mortality, and Long-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution.~~ The Journal of the American Medical Association, 287(9), 1132-1141. Variable Pm_contrast Title: PM contrast Units: µg/m^3 Definition: Table(Study)(~ 18.6,10) Nodelocation: 200,144,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,422 Defnstate: 1,28,274,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 2,275,201,314,137,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Displayinputs: , Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Reference: 16. Dockery, D. W., Pope, C. A., III, Xu, X., Spengler, J.~~ D., Ware, J. H., Fay, M. E., Ferris, B. G., Jr., & Speizer F. E. (19~~ 93). An association between air pollution and mortality in six U.S. c~~ ities. The New England Journal Of Medicine, 329(24), 1753-1759.~ ~ 17. Pope, C. A. III, Burnett, R. T., Thun, M. J., Calle, E. E., Krews~~ ki, D., Ito, K., & Thurston, G. D. (2002). Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmory~~ Mortality, and Long-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution.~~ The Journal of the American Medical Association, 287(9), 1132-1141. Index Coefficient_space Title: Coefficient space Definition: Sequence( -0.02, 0.05, 2m ) Nodelocation: 320,120,1 Nodesize: 48,20 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,401 Valuestate: 2,120,130,416,570,0,MIDM Index Ci Title: CI Definition: ['Central','0.025 fractile','0.975 fractile'] Nodelocation: 200,104,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,407 Index Study Title: Study Definition: ['Harvard six cities','ACS 2002'] Nodelocation: 200,184,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,434 Chance Crude_mortality_rat2 Title: Crude mortality rate random Units: m^3/µg Definition: using a:= ln(Chronic_mortality_rr)/Pm_contrast~ do using au:= a[Ci='0.975 fractile']~ do using al:= a[Ci='0.025 fractile']~ do using ac:= a[Ci='Central']~ do using b:= (au-al)/2/1.96~ do using c:= Cumnormal(Coefficient_space,ac,b)~ do using d:= Uncumulate(c,Coefficient_space)~ do using e:= Probdist(d, coefficient_space )~ do using f:= (if bernoulli(0.5)=1 then e[study='Harvard six cities'] ~~ else e[study='ACS 2002'])~ do f Nodelocation: 320,64,1 Nodesize: 48,29 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,578 Valuestate: 2,538,524,530,212,0,MEAN Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Constant Plausibility_was_def Title: Plausibility was defined as the probability that the observed ~~ dose-response relationship actually represents a causal association Nodelocation: 440,240,1 Nodesize: 80,68 Aliases: Alias Plausibility_was_de1 Displayinputs: Chance Plausibility Variable Log_dos1 Title: log Description: 23.8.2005 Olli Leino~ TŠmŠ moduuli sellaisenaan mukaan raskaiden ajoneuvotyyppien PM-riskin~~ arviointimalliin. Ovatko plausibility arvot kohdallaan? Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 88,40,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Nodecolor: 65535,54067,19661 Close Dose_response_model Module Mortality_assessment Title: Mortality assessment Description: Mortality assessment in Helsinki metropolitan area due t~~ o fine particles of heavy-duty vehicles. Author: mtad Date: 21. Marta 2005 11:58 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 240,360,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Diagstate: 1,37,32,724,559,17 Index Endpoint Title: Endpoint Definition: ['Cardiopulmonary','Lung ca','All others'] Nodelocation: 64,176,-3 Nodesize: 48,12 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,410 Nodecolor: 39321,39325,65535 Variable Mortality_data Title: Mortality data Units: deaths/a Definition: Table(Cause_of_death)(~ 3338,317,2886,6541) Nodelocation: 64,64,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,240,66,476,539 Defnstate: 2,325,209,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 2,786,-10,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 1 ] Reference: 30. Statistics Finland (2004). Mortality in Helsinki Metro~~ politan Area 1996. Helsinki: Statistics Finland. Variable Health_eff Title: Health eff Description: Health effects of PM emission due to heavy-duty vehicles~~ of Helsinki metropolitan area. Definition: using a:= ((Exp((Mortality_rate1*Hd_pm_scenarios))-1)*Mor~~ tality_data) do~ a[cause_of_death=Endpoint] Nodelocation: 64,144,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,610,333,476,349 Valuestate: 2,313,246,598,264,0,MIDM Reformval: [Endpoint, Vehicletype ] Att__totalsindex: Index Vehicletype, Index Endpoint Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Objective Health_effects_of_hd Title: Health effects of HD Definition: sum(sum(Health_eff,endpoint),vehicletype) Nodelocation: 200,144,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,434,-10,476,347 Valuestate: 2,595,464,550,300,0,MIDM Att__totalsindex: Index Vehicletype Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Variable Log_mor1 Title: log Description: 24.8.2005 Olli Leino~ Tulokset ovat hiukan liiankin helposti tulkittavissa. EURO III:n ja E~~ URO IV&V direktiivien vŠlillŠ terveysvaikutuksissa on siis viisinkert~~ ainen ero, mikŠ sama kuin ero on enimmŠispŠŠstšissŠ (EURO III = 0.1 j~~ a EURO IV & V = 0.02). (katso solmut EURO III standard ja EURO IV sta~~ ndard alamodulista model/Emission model)~ ~ 30.9.2005 Olli Leino~ En saanut vielŠkŠŠn importance analyysiŠ toimimaan. Tein laskentasolm~~ ut erikseen "cardiopulmonary", "lung cancer" ja "all others" endpoint~~ eille. Kaikista tulee INF, paitsi "traf vol 2008" soluun bussin kohda~~ lle NAN. ???~ ~ Kun vaihdoin bussin "traf vol 2008" triangular jakaumaksi piste-estim~~ aatin sijaan, tuli tŠstŠkin INF.~ ~ 3.10.2005 Olli Leino~ Laitoin importance analyysisolmun, jossa ulottuvuuksia 5 kpl, jotta s~~ aan tuloksia esitelmŠŠ varten.~ Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 616,16,1 Nodesize: 44,12 Windstate: 2,555,72,497,467 Nodecolor: 65535,54067,19661 Log: 7.12.2006 Olli Leino~ Did some cleaning and renaming~ Module Importance_analysis Title: Importance analysis Author: olex Date: Wed, Jan 24, 2007 9:54 AM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 352,144,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Index Health_effects_of_h1 Title: Health effects of HD Inputs Definition: Table(Self)(~ Road_traffic,Long_range_transport,Traf_vol_2008,Weight_factors_,Plaus~~ ibility,Crude_mortality_rat2) Indexvals: ['Road traffic PM','Long-range transport (Elrt)','traf vol~~ 2008','Weight factors (wfi) (Table III)','Plausibility','Crude morta~~ lity rate random'] Nodelocation: 72,160,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0 Windstate: 2,530,128,530,391 Variable Health_effects_of_h4 Title: Health effects of HD Importance Definition: Abs( RankCorrel( Health_effects_of_h1, Health_effects_of_~~ hd ) ) Nodelocation: 72,112,0 Nodesize: 48,29 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0 Windstate: 2,167,308,470,394 Valuestate: 2,529,99,700,309,0,MIDM Reformval: [Pm_source, Health_effects_of_h1 ] Variable Importanc Title: Importance scenario: EUROIV, Roadtraffic Definition: FunctionOf(Health_effects_of_h4[Expr="EURO IV",Pm_source=~~ "Road traffic"]) Nodelocation: 216,112,1 Nodesize: 48,38 Windstate: 2,155,322,476,224 Valuestate: 2,130,636,824,435,0,MIDM Reformval: [Vehicletype, Health_effects_of_h1 ] Att__totalsindex: Index Vehicletype Objective Importance_table Title: Importance table Definition: Table(Imp_inputs)(~ Importanc[Cause_of_death='Cardiopulmonary', Vehicletype='Van', Health~~ _effects_of_h1='Road traffic PM'],Importanc[Cause_of_death='Cardiopul~~ monary', Vehicletype='Van', Health_effects_of_h1='Long-range transpor~~ t (Elrt)'],Importanc[Cause_of_death='Cardiopulmonary', Vehicletype='V~~ an', Health_effects_of_h1='Weight factors (wfi) (Table III)'],Importa~~ nc[Cause_of_death='Cardiopulmonary', Vehicletype='Van', Health_effect~~ s_of_h1='Plausibility'],Importanc[Cause_of_death='Lung ca', Vehiclety~~ pe='Van', Health_effects_of_h1='Plausibility'],Importanc[Cause_of_dea~~ th='All others', Vehicletype='Van', Health_effects_of_h1='Plausibilit~~ y'],Importanc[Cause_of_death='All causes', Vehicletype='Van', Health_~~ effects_of_h1='Plausibility'],Importanc[Cause_of_death='Cardiopulmona~~ ry', Vehicletype='Van', Health_effects_of_h1='Crude mortality rate ra~~ ndom'],Importanc[Cause_of_death='Lung ca', Vehicletype='Van', Health_~~ effects_of_h1='Crude mortality rate random'],Importanc[Cause_of_death~~ ='All others', Vehicletype='Van', Health_effects_of_h1='Crude mortali~~ ty rate random'],Importanc[Cause_of_death='All causes', Vehicletype='~~ Van', Health_effects_of_h1='Crude mortality rate random']) Nodelocation: 352,112,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,384,273,476,224 Defnstate: 2,329,317,880,290,0,MIDM Valuestate: 2,129,39,1028,290,0,MIDM Reformval: [Health_effects_of_h1, Imp_inputs ] Index Imp_inputs Title: imp inputs Definition: ['Road traffic PM','Long-range transport','Weight factors~~ ','Plausibility (cardiopulmonary)','Plausibility (lung cancer)','Plau~~ sibility (all others)','Plausibility (all causes)','Crude mortality r~~ ate random (cardiopulmonary)','Crude mortality rate random (lung canc~~ er)','Crude mortality rate random (all others)','Crude mortality rate~~ random (all causes)'] Nodelocation: 352,144,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Close Importance_analysis Close Mortality_assessment Alias The_exposure_was_es1 Title: The exposure was estimated by using two models Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 104,192,1 Nodesize: 56,36 Original: The_exposure_was_est Alias Plausibility_was_de1 Title: Plausibility was defined as the probability that the observed ~~ dose-response relationship actually represents a causal association Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 424,336,1 Nodesize: 80,68 Original: Plausibility_was_def Close Pm_risk_model Text Te5 Description: Reference:~ Olli Leino, Marko Tainio, Jouni T. Tuomisto ~ ~ Comparative risk analysis of fine particles and dioxin. ~ ~ URN:NBN:fi-fe20071159~ ~ Nodelocation: 120,142,-1 Nodesize: 116,78 Module Risks_from_farmed_an Title: Dx risk model Description: The part of the model calculates Risk-Benefit analysis o~~ f eating domestic fish. Risk factors are pollutants: Dioxin, PCB (als~~ o the exposures of PBDE and MeHg are presented here, but not used fo~~ r later calculations). Benefical effects are due to omega-3 fatty ac~~ ids found in fish. ~ ~ We also compare the outcomes of EU-regulation of the Baltic fish (sal~~ mon and herring). Finland and Sweden have derogation up till year 201~~ 1 to place salmon and herring to market, although they exceed the max~~ imum concenration of dioxins, set by the EU. Author: Jouni Tuomisto Date: 9. tamta 2004 20:14 Saveauthor: olex Savedate: 25. Augta 2005 16:34 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 320,168,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0 Diagstate: 1,6,341,489,555,17 Fontstyle: Arial, 13 Att__diagramprintsca: 97,1,1,0,2,1,2794,4312,0 Outlinerstate: 2,40,9,450,712 Module Other_parts Title: Other parts Author: ktluser Date: 11. tamta 2004 9:20 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 784,128,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Diagstate: 1,96,13,608,526,17 Nodecolor: 49151,49151,49151 Variable Loki_v_2 Title: Loki v 2 Description: 20.1.2004 Jouni Tuomisto~ En ole ehtinyt aiemmin lokia kirjoittaa, joten nyt yleiskuvaus mallis~~ ta. Viljelylohi on tehty arvioimaan, onko Hites et al (Science 9.1.20~~ 04) riskinarviointi hyvin tehty. Ensikommenttina KTL:ssŠ oli se, ettŠ~~ kalan terveyshyšdyt on unohdettu. NiinpŠ rakensimme mallin, joka 1) ~~ kŠyttŠŠ samaa EPAn riskimallia saasteiden terveyshaittojen laskemisee~~ n kuin Hites (PCB:n, dieldriinin ja toksafeenin (mutta ei dioksiinien~~ ) aiheuttama yhdistetty syšŠriski olettaen additiivisuuden ja lineari~~ sed multistage-mallin eli suoraan kŠyttŠmŠllŠ EPAn CSF-arvoja) ja 2) ~~ laskee myšs omega-3-rasvahappojen tuoman hyšdyn sydŠnkuolemariskiin. ~~ ~ Vertailu tehtiin 1) olettamalla lohensyšntiŠ 0.25 - 32 amerikkalaista~~ annosta kuukaudessa ja laskemalla syšpŠriski ja/tai sydŠnhyšty sekŠ ~~ 2) olettamalla jokin lohensyšnti (esim. 20 g/d) ja lisŠksi jotain ole~~ tuksia muista omega-3-lŠhteistŠ sekŠ niiden muutoksista jos lohensyšn~~ ti muuttuisi. ~ Vaikutuksen lisŠksi tehtiin argumenttianalyysi (oma moduli) jossa kat~~ sottiin importance analysis eli rank-korrelaatio lŠhtšmuuttujien ja ~~ lopputuleman vŠlille. TŠssŠ oli mukana erilaisia pŠŠtšksiŠ, mm. pitŠi~~ sikš katsoa saasteiden syšpŠhaittaa vai nettovaikutusta?, PitŠisikš k~~ atsoa terveysvastetta lainkaan vai pelkkŠŠ altistusta? ja MillŠ vilje~~ lty lohi pitŠisi korvata? PŠŠtškset otettiin mukaan analyysiin siten,~~ ettŠ kullekin pŠŠtšsvaihtoehdolle oletettiin sama todennŠkšisyys, ja~~ ne otettiin mukaan satunnaismuuttujina (ikŠŠn kuin me yrittŠisimme a~~ rvioida, mikŠ on ŠŠnestyksen tulos kun tŠstŠ ŠŠnestetŠŠn). TŠhŠn liit~~ tyen jŠin pohtimaan sitŠ, pitŠisikš meidŠn olettaa pienempi todennŠkš~~ isyys huonoille vaihtoehdoille (kuten epŠtodennŠkšisille presidenttie~~ hdokkaille annetaan vŠhemmŠn aikaa televisiossa) mutta en pŠŠtynyt tŠ~~ ssŠ mihinkŠŠn lopputulokseen, ja niin tasajako jŠi malliin.~ LisŠksi on tehty VOI-analyysi (oma moduli). TŠssŠ yritin rakentaa VOI~~ -funktiota, joka olisi suoraan laskenut mielenkiinnon kohteena olevan~~ tuloksen (helpottaisi mallinrakennusta jatkossa ja tekisi erilaisten~~ VOIn laskemisen kŠtevŠksi), mutta ongelmaksi muodostui se, ettŠ mean~~ -funktio toimi oikein vain, kun se laskettiin variablesta. Jos yritti~~ laskea sen tilapŠisestŠ, solmun sisŠllŠ olevasta muuttujasta, tuloks~~ ena oli yleensŠ mid. NiinpŠ tyydyttiin laskemaan homma kŠsipelillŠ ku~~ ten Particle VOI -mallissa.~ Conclusions from Hites 2004 sisŠltŠŠ sitaatteja ja argumentteja kesku~~ stelusta, joka on Hitesin myštŠ kŠynnistynyt. What should be the scop~~ e of the assessment oli aikeissa olla moduli, josta eri pŠŠtšsvaihtoe~~ hdot olisivat sinne kirjatun argumentoinnin seurauksena nousseet, mut~~ ta sitŠ ei ollut aikaa tyšstŠŠ kovin pitkŠlle. ~ Confounder analysis -moduli sisŠltŠŠ pohdintaa siitŠ, millaiset tekij~~ Št voivat vaikuttaa Hitesin lopputulokseen ja kvalitatiivista argumen~~ tointia niiden mahdollisista vaikutuksista tulosten tulkintaan.~ Help on yksinkertaisesti kopio Help v4 mallista.~ ~ 20.1. alkoi ongelmaksi tulla se, ettŠ malli ršnsysi liikaa, ja oli ha~~ nkalaa saada indeksit tŠsmŠŠmŠŠn lŠhtšarvojen ja lopputuloksen kesken~~ . NiinpŠ pŠŠtin tehdŠ uuden version 3, josta kaikki ršnsyt on poistet~~ tu ja jonka tarkoituksena on toimia mallina Science-artikkelia varten~~ . Kaikki laajemmat tarkastelut siis sŠŠstetŠŠn mallin seuraaviin vers~~ ioihin. NiinpŠ versio 2:een jŠtetŠŠn kaikki ršnsyt, josta niitŠ sitte~~ n voi tarpeen mukaan kopioida takaisin kŠytšssŠ olevaan malliversioon~~ . NŠin ehkŠ pysyy selvŠnŠ se, mitŠ Science-vastineessa on ja mitŠ ei ~~ ole.~ ~ Fishing and farming, Arguments on fish pollutants, Total pollutant ex~~ posure, What should be the scope of risk assessment?, Conclusions fro~~ m Hites 2004, ja Confounder analysis ovat semmoiset modulit jotka nyt~~ poistetaan versiosta 3. Samoin poistetaan pŠŠmodulista solmut Risk o~~ r net health effect?, Acceptable risk ja Health effects or exposures?~~ sekŠ nŠiden input nodet.~ ~ Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 280,32,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Windstate: 2,463,67,476,399 Nodecolor: 65535,54067,19661 Variable Loki_v3 Title: Loki v3 Description: 20.1.2003 Jouni Tuomisto~ Versiosta 3 siis on tehty riisuttu versio Science-juttua varten. Lue ~~ tarkemmin Loki v 2:sta. Nyt versiosta 3 poistetaan aiemmin kuvatun li~~ sŠksi Other parts -modulista indeksejŠ, joita ei kŠytetŠ missŠŠn. NŠm~~ Š ovat Viljelyalue, Kalastusalue, Ostokaupunki, Lohilaji ja Saaste.~ ~ Argument analysis -modulista poistetaan solmut We should not conside~~ r concentrations..., Acceptable exposure, Va2, Health or exposure?, W~~ hat is salmon replacement?, Va5, Va3, Va3 inputs, Va3 importance eli ~~ kaikki solmut. TŠrkeyssolmu luodaan uudelleen, mutta nyt se voidaan t~~ ehdŠ suoraan Outcome-solmulle ilman indeksimuunnoksia. NiinpŠ koko Ar~~ gument analysis -moduli poistetaan ja asia siirretŠŠn VOIs-moduliin, ~~ joka nimetŠŠn uudelleen VOI and importance analysis.~ ~ Food intake -modulista poistetaan Salmon consumption, Salmon replacem~~ ent, Food change, Salmon amount, Oil increase, Food intake, Wild salm~~ on compensation, Va1, Food_rec, Source1. Eli kaikki solmut keskittyvŠ~~ t nyt vain loheen, eikŠ muita omega-3-lŠhteitŠ huomioida. Ne tulevat ~~ mukaan malliin raja-arvossa, joka kuvaa hyšdyllisen lisŠsaannin rajaa~~ ja siis sisŠltŠŠ absoluuttisen fysiologisen rajan, josta on vŠhennet~~ ty muusta ravinnosta tuleva mŠŠrŠ. TŠmŠ solmu tehdŠŠn Annosvastemodul~~ iin.~ ~ VOIs-modulista poistetaan Va16, Va12, VOI, VOI1 ja VOI-laskenta tehdŠ~~ Šn suoraan Outcome-solmusta.~ ~ 21.1.2004 Jouni Tuomisto~ Malli muuttui eilen siten, ettŠ nyt lasketaan VOI kahdelle eri kysymy~~ kselle: pitŠisikš suositella viljellyn lohen enimmŠissaanniksi 1 anno~~ s/kk ja pitŠisikš rajoittaa enemmŠn kalanrehun saastepitoisuuksia. NŠ~~ mŠ kaksi nostetaan esiin, koska edellinen on suora vastine Hitesin ym~~ . argumenttiin, ja jŠlkimmŠinen on korostamassa sitŠ, ettŠ asetettu k~~ ysymys mŠŠrŠŠ sen, mikŠ tieto on tŠrkeŠŠ ja mikŠ ei.~ ~ Other parts -modulista poistetaan solmut Acceptable exposure increase~~ ja Amount or replacement, ja ARL siirretŠŠn Fish advirories -modulii~~ n sekŠ Potency Exposure-response function for pollutant risk -modulii~~ n. NŠistŠ moduleista poistetaan vastaavat aliakset.~ ~ Unit- ja Description-kentŠt pŠivitetŠŠn koko mallissa, ja viitteitŠ l~~ istŠtŠŠn sikŠli kuin ne ovat helposti kŠsillŠ. Kuitenkin viitteet on ~~ vielŠ pistettŠvŠ kuntoon, nyt muotoilut eivŠt ole kunnossa. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 280,56,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Windstate: 2,659,392,476,344 Nodecolor: 65535,54067,19661 Variable Compensating_fish_am Title: Compensating fish amount Units: g/d Definition: Healthrisk/Erf_h/Mortalityinfinland Nodelocation: 80,152,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,336 Valuestate: 2,104,114,714,407,0,MIDM Reformval: [Pollutants, Fishspecies ] Variable Probability_of_decis Title: Probability of decision Definition: FunctionOf(var a:= sum(Healthrisk,Expr);~ Probability(a[Banning='BAU']+0.0001>a[Banning='Restrict farmed salmon~~ use'])) Nodelocation: 80,264,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,16,210,511,408 Valuestate: 2,504,514,724,303,0,MIDM Variable Probability_of_deci1 Title: Probability of decision Definition: FunctionOf(var a:= sum(eff_net,Expr);~ Probability(a[Banning='BAU']>a[Banning='Change farmed to wild salmon'~~ ])) Nodelocation: 80,208,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,270 Variable Loki_v1 Title: Loki v5 Description: 19.4.2004 Jouni Tuomisto~ Versio 4:stŠ jŠi nŠkšjŠŠn loki tekemŠssŠ, koska loppuvaiheen rutistus~~ oli niin intensiivinen. Joka tapauksessa 4 oli se versio, jonka muka~~ an laskettu data lŠhti Sciencen technical commentiksi. Nyt aletaan ty~~ šstŠŠ viljylylohen pyrkilšŠ uuden versionumeron 5 voimin. Malliin hae~~ taan takaisin versiosta 2 modulit What should be the scope of risk as~~ sessment?, confounder analysis ja Conclusions from Hites 2004. Argume~~ ntteja muutetaan englanniksi ja virtaviivaistetaan. Myšs nuolia kŠŠnn~~ etŠŠn siten, ettŠ datasta lŠhtee nuoli siitŠ tehtyy pŠŠtelmŠŠn eikŠ p~~ Šinvastoin. Aiemmin ajatus oli se, ettŠ jokin argumentti voi sisŠltŠŠ~~ dataa, jota kŠytetŠŠn mallin lŠhtštietona eli nuoli menee kohti kaus~~ aalimallia. TŠmŠ on kuitenkin ongelmallista, koska tŠllšin lukijalla ~~ pitŠisi olla kŠsitys siitŠ, missŠ iteraatiossa ollaan menossa eli kat~~ sotaanko kausaalimallia tyšn alla olevana mallina (iteraation alussa)~~ vai kuvauksena todellisuudesta (iteraation lopussa). On loogisempaa ~~ ajatella, ettŠ kausaalimalli on aika kuvaus todellisuudesta, jolloin ~~ argumentit jonkin muuttujan suuruudesta ovat aina kausaalimallista ar~~ gumenttiin pŠin. Toiseen suuntaan menevŠt sellaiset nuolet, joissa ot~~ etaan kantaa siihen, mitŠ kausaalimallin pitŠisi sisŠltŠŠ eli scope-a~~ rgumentit. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 280,80,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Windstate: 2,670,49,490,476 Nodecolor: 65535,54067,19661 Module Fish_feed Title: Fish feed Author: ktluser Date: 11. Janta 2004 12:08 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 72,32,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Diagstate: 1,155,156,601,304,17 Outlinerstate: 2,40,50,576,600 Constant Kalanrehun_myrkyt_ov Title: Kalanrehun myrkyt ovat vŠhentyneet Description: Rideout said that major feed companies have been able re~~ duce toxin levels~ in their fish meal over the past several years by usin~~ g substitute ingredients~ and less contaminated fish. ŅIt has been an issue that~~ the industry is~ responding to. Feed companies have been working overti~~ me to use high~ quality meals that are very low in contaminants and ha~~ ve twice the amount of~ omega-3sÉThe line is trending downward. We donÕt like ~~ having this in our~ product.Ó Nodelocation: 464,184,1 Nodesize: 48,29 Windstate: 2,102,90,515,400 Reference: http://www.intrafish.com/articlea.php?articleID=41061&s=1 Variable Feed_poll Title: Pollutant concentration in fish feed Definition: var a:= (if reg_poll='More actions' then impr_in_feed els~~ e 0);~ Feed_backgr*(1-a) Nodelocation: 184,112,1 Nodesize: 48,29 Windstate: 2,171,78,498,457 Valuestate: 2,619,393,416,303,0,MIDM Displayoutputs: [Variable Finnishfishpoll] Constant What_have_been_done_ Title: What have been done and what should be done to reduce pollutan~~ ts? Nodelocation: 352,88,1 Nodesize: 48,63 Constant Should_we_change_fis Title: Should we change fish feed instead of giving fish consumption ~~ advisories? Nodelocation: 464,88,1 Nodesize: 48,55 Chance Impr_in_feed Title: Pollutant levels in fish feed after lower limits Units: - Description: Pollutant concentrations in fish feed can be further red~~ uced from current levels. The estimate of 0-100 % with a gradual decr~~ ease in probability density is based on author judgement. It reflects~~ rather a theoretical range of improvement than a realistic estimate.~~ Definition: Triangular( 0, 0, 1 ) Nodelocation: 56,112,1 Nodesize: 48,38 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,409 Defnstate: 2,515,277,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 2,546,242,416,303,1,PDFP Variable Feed_backgr Title: Fish feed background Units: - Description: This is a dummy variable only, because the actual concen~~ trations in fish feed are not needed in the current model. Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 184,32,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Close Fish_feed Variable Loki_v6 Title: Loki v6 Description: 13.1.2005 Olli Leino~ Siirsin selkeyttŠmisen takia modulin Fish feed tŠhŠn moduliin (Other ~~ parts). Nodelocation: 280,128,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Windstate: 2,542,349,476,224 Nodecolor: 65535,54067,19661 Constant Kiviranta_fdaddcont_ Title: Kiviranta FdAddCont 2001 Nodelocation: 80,96,1 Nodesize: 48,29 Windstate: 2,102,90,471,470 Reference: Kiviranta H, Hallikainen A, Ovaskainen ML, Kumpulainen J, ~~ Vartiainen T. Dietary intakes of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, d~~ ibenzofurans and polychlorinated biphenyls in Finland. Food Additives~~ and Contaminants 2001; 18(11):945-953.~ PDF file Constant There_are_also_other Title: There are also other sources of Omega-3 Description: He added that the cancer risk from the toxins effectivel~~ y cancels out the~ benefits of omega-3 fatty acids found in farmed salmon~~ , which have not been~ proven to prevent or reduce the risk of cancer. ŅThere~~ are other places to~ get omega-3s - wild salmon, other fish, canola oil, fl~~ axseed oil,Ó Carpenter~ said. Nodelocation: 200,392,1 Nodesize: 48,38 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,478 Reference: http://www.intrafish.com/articlea.php?articleID=41061&s=1 Variable Log_1 Title: Log 1 Description: 21.10.2004 Olli Leino~ Aloin muokata solmuja ja moduleita suomalaiseen dataan pohjauviin tie~~ toihin. Solmujen nimet vaihtuvat hieman, mutta ovat pŠŠosin edellisen~~ mallin kaltaisia. Vaihdoin myšs tŠssŠ vaiheessa version numeroksi 7.~~ Siirsin version 6 vanhoihin malleihin.~ ~ 28.10.2004 Olli Leino~ Pohdittavana on vielŠ exposure function for omega3 moduli:~ 1) Fraction of CHD patients among deaths?~ 2) Muut modulin solmut. Ovatko ok ennallaan?~ ~ 13.1.2005 Olli Leino~ MissŠ yksikšssŠ dx ja pcb pitoisuudet pitŠŠ ilmoittaa? Mallissa ne ov~~ at WHO-TEQ:einŠ ja polybromatut summa PBDE? Onko tŠssŠ jokin hŠikkŠ t~~ ŠllŠ hetkellŠ?~ ~ 24.1.2005 Olli Leino~ Siistin ulkoasua ja tarkistin solmujen mŠŠritelmiŠ ja kuvauksia. Edel~~ leen sum PCB ja PBDE pitoisuudet aiheuttavat pollutant health riski -~~ solmuun jŠrjettšmŠn isot arvot.~ ~ 25.1.2005 Olli Leino~ Additivity? Katso Pollutant health risk solmun description. ~ ~ TŠssŠ moduulissa kŠytettiin indexiŠ Pollutant1 ja muualla Pollutants.~~ Poistin Pollutant1 -indeksin, nyt vain yksi indeksi: Pollutants.~ ~ 28.1.2005 Olli Leino~ Alimmat solmut: ~ Mortality by recommendation ~ Mortality by feed regulation.~ Ovatko tarpeen tŠssŠ mallissa ja ovatko vihreŠt valikkosolmut tarpeel~~ liset?~ ~ 28.1.2005 Olli Leino~ Poista lopullisista laskelmista Dieldrin ja Toxaphene, kun niiden pit~~ oisuuksia ei ollut datassa. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 280,104,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Windstate: 2,498,33,511,701 Nodecolor: 65535,54067,19661 Variable Log_2 Title: Log 2 Description: Poistin Domestic_fish mallista pollutants indexistŠ kohd~~ at Dieldrin ja Toxaphene, sillŠ nŠitten aineiden dataa ei ole kŠytšss~~ Š tŠssŠ mallissa. TŠllšin joutui vaihtelemaan taulukoiden mŠŠrityksiŠ~~ (potency of pollutants) tŠstŠ mallista, joten vaihdoin versionumerok~~ si:~ TuomistoViljelylohi2004_8_ol.ana~ Vanha malli TuomistoViljelylohi2004_7_ol.ana lšytyy hakemistosta:~ N:\huippuyksikko\tutkimus\dioksiinidirektiivi\mallit\vanhat~ ~ Laitoin PCB WHO-TEQ csf = 0, jotta kumpaakin PCB:tŠ ei oteta huomioon~~ yhteisvaikutuksessa solmussa Pollutant health risk.~ ~ 3.2.2005 Olli Leino~ Marko kommentoi ja katsoi mallin lŠpi. Net health effect solmu korjat~~ tu summaamalla ensin pollutant health risk -solmun aineet ja sen jŠke~~ en yhteenlasku health effect of fish -solmun kanssa.~ ~ 8.2.2005 Olli Leino~ LisŠsin Helsinki skenaarion dioksiiniriskille.~ ~ 15.2.2005 Olli Leino~ LIsŠsin Helsinki skenaarion PCB-riskille Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 280,152,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Windstate: 2,401,192,560,644 Nodecolor: 65535,54067,19661 Variable Log_8 Title: Log 8 Description: Log node in Finnish:~ ~ 21.2.2005 Jouni Tuomisto~ Aloin nyt lopulta jŠrjestelmŠllisesti katsoa tŠtŠ mallia lŠpi. LisŠsi~~ n nimeen _jtt loppuun. Jostain syystŠ tŠstŠ versiosta on olemassa 8_o~~ l joka on 15.2. ja 8_ol_mt joka on 2.2. perŠisin. Oletan, ettŠ uudemp~~ i on oikeampi. NŠin on Log2:n mukaan. Katsoin myšs tiedostot Wordin c~~ ompare documentilla, ja uudemmassa versiossa on joitakin lisŠyksiŠ, m~~ uuten ovat aika samat. Mallin Title muutetaan versionumeroa vastaavak~~ si, samoin Loki.~ ~ Tarkastuksessa kŠytŠn pŠŠasiassa argumenttisolmuja asianomaisiin koht~~ iin liittyen.~ ~ Poistin Help-modulin, koska se oli versio 4 ja uusin on nykyŠŠn versi~~ o 5. SitŠ en ottanut mukaan tŠhŠn malliin. Sen ehtii tehdŠ sitten, ku~~ n julkaiseminen alkaa olla ajankohtaista.~ ~ VOI-solmu pitŠisi katsoa kokonaan uusiksi. TŠmŠ liittyy myšs HEAT- ja~~ KOPRA-malleihin, joten se pitŠisi tehdŠ nyt kerralla pois ja kopioid~~ a sitten kaikkiin malleihin samanlaisena.~ ~ Poistin attribuutit Url, Deduction ja Premises (sekŠ Reference1, joka~~ edelleen kummitteli). Sen sijaan lisŠsin attribuutin Log, jota jatko~~ ssa kŠytetŠŠn solmuihin liittyvŠn lokitiedon kirjaamiseen.~ ~ ~ 22.2.2005 Olli Leino~ 1) LisŠŠ consumption of domestic fish ja pollutants data solmuihin si~~ sŠvesikalojen saaliit ja pitoisuudet~ 2) Laske Herring 17- kulutus vapaa-ajan kalastuksesta ja silakan koko~~ silakan jakaumasta (EU-kalat)~ 3) LisŠŠ pollutants of domestic fish Herring 17- pitoisuudet~ 4) MitkŠ ovat jŠrkeviŠ vaihtoehtoja mitŠ vertailla (mm. Joukon maili ~~ EU:n tulevista suosituksista). VihreŠt laatikot ylšs tai domestic fis~~ h-moduliin.~ 5) Pollutants of domestic fish modlin voi korvata yhdellŠ solmulla Po~~ ll in dom fish~ 6) LisŠŠ epŠvarmuudet kaikkien lajien pollutants dataan EU-kalat julk~~ aisusta. Ei piste-estimaatteja, vaan fractiles datasta. Koko data nŠk~~ yvillŠ taulukossa.~ 7) Pdf ja excel viitteisiin lŠhteen tiedot ylšs~ ~ 25.2.2005 Olli Leino~ Syštin epŠvarmuudet lŠhtšdatataulukkoon Pollutants in domestic fish j~~ okaiselle lajille ja jaoin lisŠksi kaikki lajit merikaloihin ja sisŠv~~ esikaloihin, joille on nyt eri pitoisuudet myrkkyjen osalta.~ ~ Tarkistettava aiemmista malleista vielŠ poll in dom fish ettŠ datat o~~ n oikein.~ ~ 8.3.2005 Olli Leino~ Olen kŠynyt lŠpi mallia JyvŠskylŠn abstraktia varten, lisŠsin kuvauks~~ iin selvennyksiŠ. Mallin ulkoasua alan muokata luettavampaan muotoon.~~ ~ ~ 14.3. 2005 Olli Leino~ Jounin kanssa keskustellessa:~ Laskelmissa kŠytetŠŠn mean arvoa, luottamusvŠli 90% saadaan 0.95 ja 0~~ .05 persentiileistŠ~ ~ Laske kokonaiskalan hyšty-riskisuhde ja luottamusvŠli tŠlle, voi olla~~ melko kapea vŠli ja kiinnostava~ ~ 23.6. 2005 Olli Leino~ LisŠsin Helsinki skenaariosolmun malliin.~ ~ 12.9.2005 Olli Leino~ Liitin kaksi mallia yhteen ja siivosin tŠstŠ ylimŠŠrŠisiŠ solmuja poi~~ s.~ ~ 27.1.2006 Olli Leino~ LisŠsin metyylielohopean RfD:n (= 100u mg/kg-day) Myšhemmin tulee sii~~ s myšs RfD:n arvoja kŠyttŠŠ laskennassa, ei pelkŠstŠŠn syšpŠriskejŠ (~~ CSF), jotta elohopea nŠkyisi lopputuloksissa.~ ~ 1.2. 2006 Olli Leino~ Anun kanssa jutellessa tuli esille elohopean vaikutus negatiivisesti ~~ verenkiertoelimistššn eli omega-3 vaikutusten kumoavaa tekijŠŠ. TŠmŠ ~~ olisi mielenkiintoista sisŠllyttŠŠ jotenkin malliin.~ ~ 8.2.206 Olii Leino~ Idea Tertun kommenteista. Koitetaanko hakea dataa muista POP-yhdistei~~ stŠ ja liittŠŠ malliin. Ei ehkŠ tuo eroa lopputuloksen kokonaisriskii~~ n, mutta malli olisi laajempi ja kattavampi. Samoin voisi laittaa ton~~ nikalan lisŠlajiksi ja muitakin tuontikaloja. PyrkimyksenŠ kaikki Suo~~ messa syštŠvŠt kalalajit. Tullilaboratoriosta saisi ehkŠ summittaisia~~ tietoja myrkkypitoisuuksista. LisŠŠmŠllŠ (reilusti) epŠvarmuutta voi~~ si ehkŠ kŠyttŠŠ myrkkypitoisuuksina. Kulutustiedot lšytyy helpommin. ~~ Annos-vasteet luultavasti EPA:n IRIS-tietokannasta.~ ~ 23.2. Olli Leino~ Importance moduuli pitŠŠ vielŠ tehdŠ uudelleen kun en ollut tallentan~~ ut ja ohjelma kaatui.~ ~ 2.6. 2006 Olli Leino~ Siistin ja lisŠilin kuvauksia solmuihin. Results-modulin ben/risk sol~~ mu on vielŠ kesken. Samoin importance analysis modlin solmut voisi ko~~ mmentoida.~ ~ 19.6. 2006 Olli Leino~ Tein results moduliin healthrisk ja healthbenefit taulukot joista yhd~~ istin meri- ja jŠrvikalat sekŠ otin scenaarion BAU, Dioxin, Normal po~~ pulation.~ ~ 16.11. 2006 Olli Leino~ Malli antaa jŠrjettšmŠn suuria arvoja omega-3 hyšdyille (dose-respons~~ e of omega-3 = 91% ja hyšdyt tuhansia vŠltettyjŠ CHD-kuolemia) kun mu~~ utin annosvasteen Mozaffarian & Rimm mukaiseksi. Myšs korkein pitoisu~~ us josta hyštyŠ, muutettiin. MitŠ tehdŠ?~ ~ 21.11.2006 Olli Leino~ Muutin mallin ulkoasua raa«alla kŠdellŠ enemmŠn top-down asuiseksi. A~~ nnosvaste (Mozaffariani) antaa noin kymmenkertaiset CHD-hyšdyt Din ym~~ s. annosvasteisiin. Tsekkaus olisi ehkŠ vielŠ paikallaan.~ ~ 24.1.2007 Oli Leino~ PitŠisikšhŠn omega-3 pitoisuudet kaloille pŠivittŠŠ. Katsoin ettŠ ova~~ t hiukan epŠmŠŠrŠiset tuossa domestic fish modulissa lšytyvŠssŠ solmu~~ ssa. MistŠ omega-3 muodostuvat? Onko:~ omega-3=EPA+DHA~ Tuossa solmussa on kŠytetty:~ omega-3=monityydyttšmŠttšmŠt~ ~ 7.3.2007 Olli Leino~ Siistin ulkoasua ja lisŠsin selventŠviŠ kommentteja, sekŠ argumenttej~~ a Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 280,176,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Windstate: 2,670,22,476,735 Aliases: Alias Log_4 Nodecolor: 65535,54067,19661 Objective Outcome Title: Mortality by recommendation Units: cases/a Description: Net health effect indexed by only consumption recommenda~~ tion. Definition: if Regulate_pollutants_=1 then outcome3[reg_poll='more ac~~ tions'] else outcome3[reg_poll='BAU'] Nodelocation: 80,392,1 Nodesize: 48,32 Windstate: 2,595,170,476,549 Defnstate: 2,499,269,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 2,481,243,295,476,0,MIDM Aliases: Alias Outcome1 Att__totalsindex: [Index Fishspecies] Chance Regulate_pollutants_ Title: Regulate pollutants? Units: probability Description: A chance node that collapses the decision about regulati~~ ng fish feed. Definition: bernoulli(0.5) Nodelocation: 80,328,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,527 Valuestate: 2,312,322,416,303,0,SAMP Close Other_parts Module Vois Title: VOI and importance analysis Author: jtuomist Date: Tue, Mar 27, 2001 11:26 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 784,56,1 Nodesize: 48,29 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Diagstate: 1,40,1,995,595,17 Nodecolor: 49151,49151,49151 Index Frac Title: Fractile Units: - Description: Index for making classes number of bins for classificati~~ on. Definition: sequence(1/3,1,1/3) Nodelocation: 56,88,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 2,305,435,416,303,0,MIDM Function Classify(input,output) Title: Classify Units: vary Description: A function that classifies the values of output variable~~ into classes number of different bins (defined by centiles) based on~~ the values of the input variable. Definition: (if (input >= getfract(input,Frac-1/3) and inputcommercialfishery Constant Small_herring__pike Title: Large herring and inland pike are species with small MOE Description: These species have margin of exposure less than ten. So,~~ they are perhaps the most relevant species to watch in the sense of ~~ public health. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 240,48,1 Nodesize: 48,46 Windstate: 2,243,283,476,224 Nodecolor: 65535,65532,19661 Displayinputs: Object Variable, Variable Moecomp Constant H Title: Sprat, flounder,pike-perch,bream,burbot sea+inland very large ~~ MOE Nodelocation: 240,296,1 Nodesize: 48,63 Nodecolor: 65535,65532,19661 Displayinputs: Object Variable, Variable Moecomp Variable Moecomp Title: MOE comparison Description: Especially large MOE (denoted by "+++") and small MOE (d~~ enoted by "+"). Values of other species vary between these limits (sm~~ all MOE means riskgroups smallest MOE<10. Very large MOE means riskgr~~ oups smallest MOE>100). Definition: var a:=moe[pollutants="MeHg"];~ var b:=moe[pollutants="Dioxin_WHO-TEQ"];~ ~ var c:= if b<10 or a<10 then "+" ;~ var d:=if a>100 and b>100 then "+++"; ~ ~ c+d Nodelocation: 240,168,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,388,307,490,343 Valuestate: 2,635,-8,615,471,0,MIDM Reformval: [Riskgroups, Fishspecies ] Displayoutputs: Constant Small_herring__pike, Constant H Log: 13.2.2006 Olli Leino~ Tein tŠmŠn solmun MOE:n havainnollistamiseksi. Jostain syystŠ kaikki ~~ kalalajit eivŠt if-lauseisiin sisŠlly. Alias Exposures__dioxin_a2 Title: Exposures: Dioxin and omega-3 fatty acids Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 136,232,1 Nodesize: 48,38 Original: Exposures__dioxin_an Close Moe1 Alias Exposures__dioxin_a1 Title: Exposures: Dioxin and omega-3 fatty acids Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 392,112,1 Nodesize: 48,38 Original: Exposures__dioxin_an Close Exposures Module Dose_responses Title: Dose-~ responses Description: In this module is the dose-responses of the pollutants o~~ n cancer, deaths and omega-3 fatty acids on reduction of CHD Author: olex Date: Fri, Nov 24, 2006 8:48 AM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 304,144,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Diagstate: 1,1,1,550,300,17 Module Erf_n3 Title: Exposure-~ response function for omega3 Description: Here we construct the dose-response of omega-3 fatty aci~~ ds based on literature. Author: jtue Date: 12. Janta 2004 8:51 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 280,64,1 Nodesize: 48,48 Diagstate: 1,620,-9,585,446,17 Variable Erf_h Title: Exposure-~ response function for health benefit Units: probability/(g/d) Description: Exposure-response function where also the uncertainty ab~~ out the population that benefits from omega-3 is taken into account. Definition: D_r_normal*(if All_or_chd=1 then 1 else F_chd_pati) Nodelocation: 264,352,1 Nodesize: 52,44 Windstate: 2,562,352,475,476 Valuestate: 2,398,357,523,626,0,MEAN Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:1~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:0~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0,0.01,0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95,0.99,1]~ Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Constant Does_omega_3_help_ot Title: Does omega 3 help other people than CHD patients? Description: Does omega 3 help other people than CHD patients? Definition: FunctionOf(Expr) Nodelocation: 200,48,1 Nodesize: 48,46 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,374 Displayoutputs: Chance All_or_chd Chance All_or_chd Title: Does omega-3 help CHD patients or everyone? Units: probability Description: A large part of omega-3 benefit literature is based on s~~ tudies on cardiac patients. This node reflects the uncertainty whethe~~ r there is cardiac health benefit for everyone or only coronary heart~~ disease (CHD) patients. The estimate is not based on data but the ai~~ m is to maximise uncertainty.~ ~ Bernoulli distribution function chosen by author judgement Definition: Bernoulli( 0.5 ) Nodelocation: 200,240,1 Nodesize: 48,38 Windstate: 2,512,223,476,474 Valuestate: 2,336,546,416,303,0,SAMP Displayinputs: Constant Does_omega_3_help_ot Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 1 ] Variable F_chd_pati Title: Fraction of CHD patients among deaths Units: fraction Description: Fraction of coronary heart disease patients among the de~~ aths. Current estimate is based on the fraction of cardiac deaths fro~~ m total deaths in Finland, although there are cardiac deaths among no~~ n-CHD patients, and there are CHD patients with other causes of death~~ .~ ~ See nodes: Total mortality in Finland ~ CHD mortality in Finland~ Definition: 12.88K/49.316K Nodelocation: 72,240,1 Nodesize: 48,38 Windstate: 2,630,280,500,438 Chance Benefit_limit Title: Highest omega3 dose with health benefit Units: g/d Description: Describes the amount of fish that is still beneficial wh~~ en added to diet. After this limit, no extra benefit is assumed from ~~ omega-3 fatty acids. The value reflects both the physiological need o~~ f omega-3 and the current intake of omega-3 from other sources than s~~ almon. Both parts of the estimate are complicated, and the latter var~~ ies from country to country. This might have implications to the deci~~ sion if we could give country-wise recommendations of feed regulation~~ s. The estimate is based on author judgement. A rough idea about the ~~ magnitude comes from Din 2004, where the trials had 0.85 - 1.8 g/d of~~ omega-3 with benefit but 3.5 g/d showed no benefit in a small trial ~~ where the population used reasonable amount of fish anyway. If the ph~~ ysiological limit is lower, the slope of the exposure-response functi~~ on should be steeper. Another data comes from Albert 1998: the benefi~~ t may be limited to omega-3 doses <4.9 g/mo = 0.16 g/d. Markmann and ~~ Gronbaek concluded that 0.6-0.9 g/d is beneficial.~ ~ 16.12. Olli Leino~ Evidence from prospective secondary~ prevention studies suggests that EPA+DHA supplementation~ ranging from 0.5 to 1.8 g/d (either as fatty fish or supplements)~ significantly reduces subsequent cardiac and all-cause~ mortality.(Kris-Etherton P. M. 2002)~ ~ 30-10-2006 Olli Leino~ Definition by Mozaraffian and Rimm:~ "modest consumption (=250-500 mg/d of EPA and DHA) lowers relative ri~~ sk by 25% or more. Higher intakes do not substantially firther lower ~~ CHD mortality, suggesting a threshold of effect." ~ Uniform distribution (range: 0.25-0.3 mg/d) was choosed to describe t~~ he uncertainty in this variable.~ ~ Uniform distribution function chosen by author judgement Definition: var a:= sum(importfish, imported_species);~ ~ uniform(0.25-a,0.5-a) Nodelocation: 456,104,1 Nodesize: 48,38 Windstate: 2,20,44,509,790 Valuestate: 2,232,242,416,303,1,PDFP Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Reference: {Din et al 2004; Albert et al 1998; Marckmann and Gronbaek~~ 1999} Log: 30.11. Olli Leino~ Definition changed to match Mozaffarian and Rimm suggestion->uniform(~~ 0.25-0.5)~ ~ 15.11.2006 Olli Leino~ Olisiko kapeampi mŠŠrittelyvŠli paikallaan (0.25-0.35). Probable thre~~ shold of effect - most reduction occurs with modest intake (<250 mg/d~~ ) with little additional benefit with higher intakes.~ Constant Mozaffarian_and_rimm Title: Mozaffarian and Rimm Description: Dariush Mozaffarian and Eric Rimm: Fish intake, contamin~~ ants, and human health~ ~ Article suggests maximum omega-3 intake of 250 mg/d. However this max~~ imum omega-3 intake with health benefits varies a lot between end poi~~ nts (figure 3 and table 1) , e.g. antithrombotic effect gets stronger~~ after omega-3 intake of 2000 mg/d.~ ~ Dose response of omega-3:~ ~ Risk reduction of 14.6%/100 mg/d up till intake of 250 mg/d of omega-~~ 3.~ Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 328,24,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,626,40,476,355 Displayoutputs: Chance Mozaffarian Chance Mozaffarian Title: Mozaffarian Units: %/250 mg Description: Dariush Mozaffarian and Eric Rimm: Fish intake, contamin~~ ants, and human health~ ~ Relative risk of CHD death is 36 % (95 % CI 20-50) at intake 250 mg Definition: Table(Ci)(~ -0.36,-0.5,-0.2) Nodelocation: 328,96,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 2,40,50,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Displayinputs: Constant Mozaffarian_and_rimm Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Reference: Mozaffarian and Rim~~ m Chance D_r_normal Title: D-R normal Units: %/g Description: Formulation of normal distribution with mean and standar~~ d deviation. Factor 4 is due to unit conversion from %/250 mg to %/g~ ~ Normal distribution function chosen by author judgement Definition: var au:= Mozaffarian[Ci='0.975 fractile'];~ var al:= Mozaffarian[Ci='0.025 fractile'];~ var ac:= Mozaffarian[Ci='Central'];~ var b:= (au-al)/2/1.96; {standard deviation}~ ~ normal(ac,b)*4~ Nodelocation: 328,240,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,102,90,489,252 Valuestate: 2,40,50,420,504,0,MEAN Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Log: 15.11.2006 Olli Leino~ Tulee ihan jŠrjettšmŠn suuria arvoja tŠllŠ annosvasteella kun kerrott~~ iin yksikkšmuunnoksen takia neljŠllŠ???~ Close Erf_n3 Module Erf_pollutants Title: Exposure-~ response function for pollutant risk Description: Here we construct the dose-resopnse of the pollutants. Author: Pieta Date: 16. tamta 2004 1:32 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 280,176,1 Nodesize: 48,46 Diagstate: 1,11,183,505,437,17 Variable Potency Title: Potency of pollutants Units: (mg/kg/d)Ę1 Description: Potency of pollutants. Cancer slope factors (CSF) are us~~ ed for cancer. Reference Dose (RfD) values are used for non-cancer en~~ dpoints. The data comes from the U.S.EPA.~ ~ 07.092004 Olli leino~ PBDE have not been demonstrated to be carsinogenic in rodent bioassay~~ s, therefore CSF of PBDE is estimated to be 0. Discussion for PBDE ca~~ rcinogenecis continues.~ ~ Data for Reference Dose of PBDE comes from U.S.EPA IRIS database. Ref~~ erence Dose of the most prevailing congener in salmon (according to H~~ ites fig 3.) ,PDE-47 (tetrabromodiphenyl ether), was not available i~~ n IRIS, but it is assumed (by EPA) to be twice as toxic (RfD=0,001 mg~~ /kg/day) as penta-isomer (RfD=0,002 mg/kg/day). Therefore reference D~~ ose of PBDE is an approximation of two prevailing kongeniers (tetra-~~ and pentabromodiphenyl ethers). ~ ~ In order to avoid double effect of PCB additivity in node Pollutant h~~ ealth risk, PCB WHO-TEQ potency is defined as 0.~ ~ ~ 27.1.2006 Olli Leino~ The genotoxicity data indicate that methylmercury is not a potent mut~~ agen but may produce chromosomal damage; these data do not support a ~~ hypothesis that methylmercury is a genotoxic carcinogen. It appears, ~~ rather, that methylmercury exerts its carcinogenic effect only at hig~~ h dose, at or above an MTD.~ ~ The oral Reference Dose (RfD) is based on the assumption that thresho~~ lds exist for certain toxic effects such as cellular necrosis. It is ~~ expressed in units of mg/kg-day. In general, the RfD is an estimate (~~ with uncertainty spanning perhaps an order of magnitude) of a daily e~~ xposure to the human population (including sensitive subgroups) that ~~ is likely to be without an appreciable risk of deleterious effects du~~ ring a lifetime~ ~ ~ Definition: Table(Self,Pollutants,Riskgroups)(~ 156K,156K,156K,~ 156K,156K,156K,~ 0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,~ 1n,1n,1n,~ 20u,20u,20u,~ 20u,20u,20u,~ 1.2m,1.2m,1.2m,~ 100u,100u,100u~ ) Indexvals: ['Ca (CSF)','Non-Ca (RfD)'] Nodelocation: 224,104,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,546,-17,492,640 Defnstate: 2,469,135,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 2,357,422,416,303,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Self, Pollutants ] Reformval: [Self, Pollutants ] Displayinputs: Constant Is_cancer_slope_fact Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Reference: EPA advisory vol 2, table 3-1~ ~ http://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0184.htm~ http://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0493.htm~ http://www.epa.gov/waterscience/fish/forum/2002forum_complete.pdf p~~ age 168.~ Log: 31.1. 2006 Olli Leino~ MikŠ on lasten annos-vasteet. Kalastajien annos-vaste = normal annosv~~ aste. KehittyvŠn hermoston herkkyys elohopealle?~ LievŠt vaikutukset ilmenevŠt jo Šidin hiusten elohopeapitoisuuden~ ollessa 10-20 ?g/g, parestesioita tulee herkimmille aikuisille~ pitoisuustasolla 50 ?g/g. http://www.medicina.fi/fato/74.pdf => annos~~ -vaste viisinkertainen normaaliin nŠhden? Variable Risk_slope Title: Exposure-response function for pollutant risk Units: (mg/kg/d)-1 Description: The response assessment is restricted to cancer endpoint~~ s, because it is the more sensitive endpoint.~ ~ IRIS-database: ~ Developmental neuropsychological impairment of MeHg ~ RfD=0.1m mg/kg-day (http://cfpub.epa.gov/iris/quickview.cfm?substance~~ _nmbr=0073) Definition: potency[Potency='Ca (CSF)'] Nodelocation: 224,272,1 Nodesize: 48,38 Windstate: 2,298,46,504,585 Valuestate: 2,605,56,254,208,0,MIDM Displayinputs: Constant Is_this_affected_by_ Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 1 ] Constant Is_this_affected_by_ Title: Is this affected by the target population and its background c~~ ancer risk? Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 344,88,1 Nodesize: 48,63 Windstate: 2,102,90,491,384 Displayoutputs: Variable Risk_slope Variable Exp_resp_mehg Title: Exp-Resp Hg Description: For each microgram of mercury in hair, the risks increas~~ e on average~ ~ Not used in this model, but a potentially interesting node in a futur~~ e. Definition: Table(Ci,Endp)(~ 0.11,0.1,0.13,0.05,~ 0.06,0.02,0.03,0.01,~ 0.17,0.19,0.23,0.09~ ) Nodelocation: 360,256,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodecolor: 45875,45875,45875 Reformdef: [Ci, Endp ] Reformval: [Ci, Endp ] Reference: Virtanen JK, Voutilainen S, Rissanen TH, Mursu J, Tuomaine~~ n T-M, Korhonen MJ, Valkonen V-P, SeppŠnen K, Laukkanen JA, Salonen J~~ T: Mercury, fish oils, and risk of acute coronary events and cardiova~~ scular disease, coronary heart desease, and all-cause mortality in me~~ n in eastern finland. Asterochelrosis, thrombosis and vascular biolo~~ gy. Index Endp Title: endpoint Definition: ['Acute coronary event','CVD death','CHD death','Any deat~~ h'] Nodelocation: 352,288,1 Nodesize: 48,12 Nodecolor: 45875,45875,45875 Constant Is_cancer_slope_fact Title: Is cancer slope factor a valid for a dose-response function Nodelocation: 88,104,1 Nodesize: 48,46 Displayoutputs: Variable Potency Close Erf_pollutants Close Dose_responses Module Health_effects Title: Health effects Description: Health effects due to domestic fish consumption. Author: olex Date: Fri, Nov 24, 2006 8:48 AM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 304,320,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Diagstate: 1,475,305,550,300,17 Variable Healthrisk Title: Pollutant health risk Units: cases/a Description: Pollutant health risk is calculated assuming additivity ~~ between the pollutants. However, dioxin risks are not considered beca~~ use they were not considered in Hites. After unit conversion, numbers~~ are calculated for Finland as cases per year. Negative numbers mean~~ increased risk. Definition: var a:= -potency*pollutant_exposure*Mortalityinfinland/10~~ 00;~ a Nodelocation: 368,208,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,194,258,591,864 Valuestate: 2,290,103,707,665,0,MIDM Reformval: [Riskgroups, Fishspecies ] Att__totalsindex: Index Fishspecies Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Variable Healtheffect Title: Health effect of fish Units: cases/a Description: Numbers are calculated for Finland as avoided deaths per~~ year. Positive numbers mean increased benefit. Definition: -Erf_h*min([N3_exposure,benefit_limit])*Chdinfinland Nodelocation: 232,208,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,48,118,496,460 Valuestate: 2,91,92,963,774,0,MEAN Reformval: [Riskgroups, Fishspecies ] Att__totalsindex: Index Fishspecies Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 0 ] Variable Mortalityinfinland Title: Total mortality in Finland Units: cases/a Description: 21.10.2004 Olli Leino~ Total mortality in Finland (2000) Definition: 49.316K Nodelocation: 368,136,1 Nodesize: 48,29 Windstate: 2,501,464,476,330 Valuestate: 2,6,775,216,144,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 1 ] Reference: http://www.who.int Variable Chdinfinland Title: CHD mortality in Finland Units: cases/a Description: 21.10.2004 Olli Leino~ Coronary heart disease mortality in Finland (2000) (5181115 inhabita~~ nts 2000). The estimate consists of acute myocardial infarction and o~~ ther ischaemic heart diseases (ICD 10: I21,I22 and I20, I24, I25). Definition: 12.88K Nodelocation: 232,136,1 Nodesize: 48,29 Windstate: 2,202,494,508,387 Valuestate: 2,251,555,248,179,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534 Att__discretenessinf: [0, 0, 0, 1 ] Reference: WHO Alias Adverse_health_effe1 Title: Adverse health effects - cancer deaths Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 144,305,1 Nodesize: 48,38 Original: Adverse_health_effec Alias Beneficial_health_e1 Title: Beneficial health effects + avoided CHD deaths Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 432,328,1 Nodesize: 48,38 Original: Beneficial_health_ef Close Health_effects Constant Geographical_area_is Title: Geographical area is Helsinki metropolitan area (Finland) Nodelocation: 136,416,1 Nodesize: 48,46 Aliases: Alias Geographical_area_i1 Constant Adverse_health_effec Title: Adverse health effects - cancer deaths Nodelocation: 136,320,1 Nodesize: 48,38 Aliases: Alias Adverse_health_effe1 Constant Beneficial_health_ef Title: Beneficial health effects + avoided CHD deaths Nodelocation: 432,320,1 Nodesize: 48,38 Aliases: Alias Beneficial_health_e1 Constant Exposures__dioxin_an Title: Exposures: Dioxin and omega-3 fatty acids Nodelocation: 136,232,1 Nodesize: 48,38 Aliases: Alias Exposures__dioxin_a1, Alias Exposures__dioxin_a2 Close Risks_from_farmed_an Close Pmvsdxmodel