Difference between revisions of "Helsinki energy decision 2015"

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(updated graphs)
(Case-specific ovariables)
 
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<noinclude>
 
[[heande:Helsinki energy decision 2015]]
 
[[heande:Helsinki energy decision 2015]]
 
[[op_fi:Helsingin_energiapäätös_2015]]
 
[[op_fi:Helsingin_energiapäätös_2015]]
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{{summary box
 
{{summary box
| question = This website contains an on-going impact assessment to support the decision making on how energy should be produced in Helsinki in the future. The City of Helsinki is making a major decision about power plants in 2015, and it will affect the energy supply in Helsinki for decades. Political discussion is active, but quantitative, analytical assessments are scarce, especially those that are also looking at health and climate impacts. How to continuously supply energy for the heating and electricity needs of Helsinki in all circumstances all year round for the next fifty years? An energy balance assessment is needed with several output indicators, such as cost, climate emissions, health, supply security, and domestic growth. How can decentralised energy supply and energy efficiency renovations improve the situation? The latter question was asked by the city council in spring 2015, and an other assessment (coordinated by the City of Helsinki and Helen energy company) is ongoing to also answer that question by September 2015.
+
|question = Helsinki will make a large energy decision during fall 2015. it will impact energy production for decades. An important decision requires systematic information. How do we guarantee a continuous and sufficient supply of district heat and electricity in Helsinki around the year for the next fifty years in such a way that the impacts on costs, health, climate change, and sustainable growth are as beneficial as possible? How can decentralised energy production and energy efficiency renovations improve the situation? The latter question was asked by the City Council, and another assessment (coordinated by the city of Helsinki and Helen energy company) will answer that soon.
| answer = The National Institute of Health and Welfare [[THL]] is performing an [[open assessment]] in Opasnet web-workspace during summer 2015. We are developing an assessment model (called ''Sofia'') to estimate feasibility and impacts of several suggested solutions to the Helsinki energy decision. Sofia is an energy balance model that optimises the costs of energy production in a way that the district heat demand is met every day with appropriate supply from the power plants in Helsinki. The situation is followed from 1985 to 2065. Sofia is looking also at other heat and electricity consumption, but not traffic or industry. Based on the balanced energy supply, Sofia estimates the fuel and other costs as well as greenhouse gas and fine particle emissions for power plants and other energy processes. The model can handle several scenarios that can be compared with each other to see the impacts of different actions (such as building renovations or new power plants) on the overall situation.
+
|answer = National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) performed an open assessment on the Opasnet web-workspace during summer and fall 2015 aiming at shared understanding. We utilised knowledge crystals, i.e. regurlarly updated collaborative online answers to specific research questions. Based on them, we built a model called ''Sofia'' to assess impacts and implementability of several different energy options in Helsinki. [[:op_fi:File:Helsingin energiapäätös 2015 raportti.pdf|An assessment report|]] has been published in Finnish.
  
Sofia is able to calculate the building stock and its energy use based on average energy intensity per floor area and outdoor temperature. It also finds the optimal use of existing power plants for different situations for the whole timespan of the assessment. The model suggests how the energy demand could be covered in the future when different impacts are considered. Production costs are optimised, but also other criteria could be used. Currently, Sofia suggests the use of Vuosaari A&B gas plant as the main energy source of energy, but if Vuosaari C biofuel plant were built, the importance of Vuosaari A&B would diminish. Such guidance is naturally based on the data that Sofia currently has, and her recommendations are likely to change when more and more precise data is collected. According to the principles of open assessment, we invite anybody who is interested in Helsinki's energy decision to participate and browse through the pages of this assessment. All data and all parts of the model are openly available in machine-readable format. All comments, criticism, and update suggestions are welcome.  
+
Sofia can estimate the building stock and energy consumption based on average energy efficiency, floor area, and ambient temperature. Sofia is an energy balance model that optimises costs of energy production while ensuring the supply of district heating in Helsinki for each day. The situation is followed from 1985 to 2065. Sofia looks also at other heat, fuel, and electric power consumption, but not those of industry and traffic.
 +
 
 +
Based on balanced energy production Sofia estimates the fuel and other costs and greenhouse gas and fine particle emissions from power plants and other energy processes. The model can assess several scenarios and thus compare the overall impacts of different actions, such as energy renovations or new power plants.
 +
 
 +
Sofia's main conclusion is that the energy solutions seem to fall into two categories: those that produce electric power as a side stream of district heat, like in Hanasaari coal plant and the suggested Vuosaari C biofuel plant; and those that do not produce or even consume a large amount of electricity, like decentralised biofuel heat plants or sea heat pumps. Based on current discussions, the self-sufficiency of electric power in Helsinki seems to be disappearing and probably changing into a deep dependency of outside electricity. The development of the Nordic electric market determines whether this will be a problem or not in the future.
 +
 
 +
Unfortunately, the electric market is under strong transition, and for example the wind power tariffes complicate the situation, making future predictions of this crucial issue even more difficult. Local heat production solutions are in a great need of a clear and systematic national electric policy. Otherwise, the previously very efficient combined heat and power production will be replaced with something much less efficient in Finland in the future.
 +
 
 +
If we forget the question about self-sufficiency of electric power and focus only on district heat, there are several cost-effective solutions available. Excess heat from different processes such as data centres or Neste oil refinery seem to be more cost-effective than e.g. Vuosaari C biofuel plant. Also small and large heat pumps that take heat from the environment are cost-effective. District heat from Loviisa 3 nuclear power plant is also cost-effective in our estimates, but we were not able to fully charaterise uncertainties in the investment cost; and we must remember that the decision to build or not to build the reactor is not in the hands of Helsinki.
 +
 
 +
A major problem with the process heat solutions is that they consume electric power exactly when the demand for power is the largest and price the highest. We were not able to assess the variability of the price of electricity in this assessment, but it is substantial and might change conclusions. Also for this reason, there is a need for a national energy balance model with hourly resolution including eletricity, industry, and traffic.
 +
 
 +
Health and climate impacts are important in every single option we looked at, together ranging between a fifth and a fourth of all costs, health and climate comprising a half of that each. Surprisingly, differences between policy options in this respect were small even if the reputation of the climate-friendliness of the options was very different. According to Sofia, this is due to several reasons. All large power plants filter fine particles out very effectively, and therefore there are no large differences in health impacts; a clear exception is small-scale wood burning in houses, which has several times larger health problems than any other option despite its marginal role in energy production. Also, the life cycle emissions of fine particles and greenhouse gases is also important: even if the direct emissions from a heat pump are zero, the electric power imported has produced emissions somewhere. Biofuels are considered climate neutral in emission trade, but they still produce emissions during their life cycle. Therefore, even a fuel switch does not produce the expected results.
 +
 
 +
Of course, the conclusions based on the model depend on the goodness of the data used. There are several uncertainties that should have been clarified had there been more time to work on the topic. Especially the fuel prices are very difficult to predict into the future. Also the fuel taxes are very high for some fuels but not for others. Effectively, the society decides, using taxes, which solutions make sense on the city level. This is a third reason why there should be a national, long-term, and clear energy policy - and tax policy supporting it - based on detailed, open energy balance modelling the best available information.
 
}}
 
}}
  
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Helsinki City Council will make a major decision in autumn 2015 about renovating old power plants, building a new one, or some other option replacing the need of the old power plants. Therefore, the City Council is the major user of the assessment. There are also secondary uses, such as informing national energy discussion and demonstrating the usefulness of an open combined [[energy balance]] and [[building model]].
 
Helsinki City Council will make a major decision in autumn 2015 about renovating old power plants, building a new one, or some other option replacing the need of the old power plants. Therefore, the City Council is the major user of the assessment. There are also secondary uses, such as informing national energy discussion and demonstrating the usefulness of an open combined [[energy balance]] and [[building model]].
  
{{hidden|1 =
 
<br/>
 
 
=== Participants ===
 
=== Participants ===
  
 
The work is coordinated by [[User:Jouni|Jouni Tuomisto]] from [[THL]] / Impact Assessment Unit. Their motivation is to contribute to the decision-making process by bringing quantitative results to help assess the health and other impacts of different options in a transparent manner. Participants that we hope get involved when they are informed about the assessment include  
 
The work is coordinated by [[User:Jouni|Jouni Tuomisto]] from [[THL]] / Impact Assessment Unit. Their motivation is to contribute to the decision-making process by bringing quantitative results to help assess the health and other impacts of different options in a transparent manner. Participants that we hope get involved when they are informed about the assessment include  
* THL: Jouni, Pauli, Teemu, Matleena, Julia, Olli
+
* THL: Jouni, Pauli, Teemu, Matleena, Julia
 
* the City of Helsinki,
 
* the City of Helsinki,
 
* Helen energy company
 
* Helen energy company
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=== Boundaries ===
 
=== Boundaries ===
  
* Time: 2015 - 2065
+
* Time: 1985 - 2065
 
* Energy need estimated for Helsinki.
 
* Energy need estimated for Helsinki.
 
* Main focus is on local heat and power need. Energy balance estimated for Helsinki (electricity nationally).
 
* Main focus is on local heat and power need. Energy balance estimated for Helsinki (electricity nationally).
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* Impacts are assessed separately for the citizen, the city, Helen energy company, and Finland.
 
* Impacts are assessed separately for the citizen, the city, Helen energy company, and Finland.
 
* Transport is not looked at although it is an important energy consumer. This is because there is no interaction with heating except via city structure, and there are no resources to look at that in this assessment. Electric cars would have an interaction with electricity production, but that applies to the total electricity market area (Finland, partly Scandinavia) and is too complex to look at.
 
* Transport is not looked at although it is an important energy consumer. This is because there is no interaction with heating except via city structure, and there are no resources to look at that in this assessment. Electric cars would have an interaction with electricity production, but that applies to the total electricity market area (Finland, partly Scandinavia) and is too complex to look at.
}}
 
  
 
=== Decisions and scenarios ===
 
=== Decisions and scenarios ===
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:''Main article: [[Helsinki energy decision options 2015]]
 
:''Main article: [[Helsinki energy decision options 2015]]
  
The two options in the official decision preparation are Hanasaari shutdown and Vuosaari, and Hanasaari 40 bio and Salmisaari 40 bio. However, also other options have been suggested, and also they are evaluated at least superficially.
+
The two options in the official decision preparation as of May 2015 are i) Hanasaari shutdown and Vuosaari C, and ii) Hanasaari 40 bio and Salmisaari 40 bio. However, also other options have been suggested, and also they are evaluated at least superficially.
 
# '''BAU:''' Only small, essential renovations are made to current power plants to stay within new emission limits.
 
# '''BAU:''' Only small, essential renovations are made to current power plants to stay within new emission limits.
 
# '''Vuosaari C:''' A new power plant is built in Vuosaari with the capacity to burn 100 % wood-based fuel or any combination of wood-based fuels and coal.
 
# '''Vuosaari C:''' A new power plant is built in Vuosaari with the capacity to burn 100 % wood-based fuel or any combination of wood-based fuels and coal.
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** Energy saving moderate: renovate 2 %/a
 
** Energy saving moderate: renovate 2 %/a
 
** Energy saving total: renovate 4 %/a, in addition increase the share of passive buildings up by 25 %-units since 2025, and add the share of sheath reform renovations up by 25 %-units.
 
** Energy saving total: renovate 4 %/a, in addition increase the share of passive buildings up by 25 %-units since 2025, and add the share of sheath reform renovations up by 25 %-units.
* Plant policy: Choose an optimal selection of power plant infrastructure
+
** WWF energy saving: energy saving according to WWF energy saving plan published 8th October 2015. It is based on efficient energy saving actions on buildings and consequental possibility to reduce coal energy. The savings are based on increased energy renovations (2.5 % per year), more effective renovations in 10 % of renovation cases, and demolition of old buildings (1 % per year).<ref name="wwf">WWF. Helsingin energiapäätös. Energiansäästö on polttoainevaihtoehdoista paras. WWF, 8.10.2015 http://wwf.fi/mediabank/7784.pdf [http://wwf.fi/wwf-suomi/viestinta/uutiset-ja-tiedotteet/WWF--Hajautettu-malli-energiatehokkuuden-lisayksella-vahvistettuna-on-paras-ratkaisu-Helsingille-2584.a]</ref>
** BAU: Old plants remain as planned but Vuosaari C biofuel, Loviisa nuclear heat, and Neste oil refinery heat are not built.
+
* Plant policy: Choose an optimal selection of power plant infrastructure. These poicy options are the main focus of the assessment. There is a separate table describing these options.
** Biofuels and process heat: Old plants remain as planned. In addition, Vuosaari C biofuel, Loviisa nuclear heat, and Neste oil refinery heat are built.
 
 
 
{{defend|# |If you have ideas about options that should be modelled, please just contact us and we'll try and adjust the model accordingly.|--[[User:Jouni|Jouni]] ([[User talk:Jouni|talk]]) 08:54, 15 July 2015 (UTC)}}
 
  
 
=== Timing ===
 
=== Timing ===
  
The assessment started in May 2015. First draft results are expected before midsummer 2015. Final results should be available well before the City Council makes the decision in autumn, which means that results should exist by September 15th, 2015. There will be a public meeting to present the near-final results and discuss their implications. The meeting is held in THL, Helsinki on 31<sup>st</sup> August 2015 at noon.
+
The assessment started in May 2015. First draft results are expected before midsummer 2015. Final results should be available well before the City Council makes the decision in autumn, which means that results should exist by September 15th, 2015. There will be a public meeting to present the near-final results and discuss their implications. The meeting was held in THL, Helsinki on 11<sup>st</sup> September 2015 at noon. The final report was published on 27th October 2015.
  
 
== Answer ==
 
== Answer ==
 +
</noinclude>
  
 
=== Model with user interface ===
 
=== Model with user interface ===
  
Current results:
+
The final results results can be found from [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=Z33GxBqiKH0MHC0B model run 1.11.2015] (token 144638929414). It is the final archived version in English. Objects were stored, so you can download the whole assessment to R in your own computer.
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=3gnGOAq9MXJYpTz0 Model run 26.10.2015] updated graphs
+
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=3gnGOAq9MXJYpTz0 Model run 26.10.2015] graphs in Finnish [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=pW8GFqqo6bPNkb6s 20.11.2015 additional graphs]
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=pKBjzl8RJnwvvrHA Model run 26.10.2015] nuisance power plants removed from plant-wise cash flow graphs.
+
* Intermediate results are available at section [[#See also]].
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=nZL5q8sr2yvOi2xN Model run 25.10.2015] benefits always positive, costs negative
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=oap5s3pqqrZz9eAP Model run 22.10.2015] contains also energy consumption graphs but objects were not stored.
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=NN5k0XgmmQBsjWb3 Model run 22.10.2015] with Finnish texts and new fuel prices. Objects stored for later examination.
 
* 5.10.2015 with Finnish texts [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=UcIL6G6OmFwk1sOg]
 
* 10.9.2015 model run for the seminar 11.9.: [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=Lxpx944xwD5V0DBw Preference model] [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=JOI0ZXiISnNkUNK8 model part 1]  [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=k7zUPAo436wEbFAg model part 2]
 
** An additional model run 25.9.2015 to show a directed acyclic graph of the model ovariables [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=ufoXJLoL8bJSDdki].
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=W9GaPYU04pdgLVtD Model run 9.9.2015] with old and new graphs. ''Custom'' option is the same as ''Cheapest'' in the preference analysis
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=eSpi8FBqfKbl7NKD Model run 6.9.2015]
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=E2jFkLL7QuCFQ0Tt Model run 5.9.2015]
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=d3bp5VSYGCagxhWl Model run 4.9.2015] Cost calculations are up to profit including external costs.
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=9PE7a4B1mBhUjlcR Model run 29.7.2015] Full run with lots of graphs.
 
 
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=4klHVl14kKW0RqDF What happens if you shut down both fossil and biofuel plants?]
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=lJf2oQkm1wjHOqtE What happens if you shut down coal and gas power plants?]
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=9c3Otq1qJIO19qzx What happens if you shut down both coal-fired power plants?]
 
  
<rcode name="finalresults" label="Run energy balance model" graphics=1 store=1 variables="
+
<rcode name="finalresults" label="Run energy balance model" graphics=1 store=0 variables="
 
name:noshutdown|description:Choose power plants you want to build (or keep running if they already exist) (the default selection is Helen's bio). This will become PlantPolicy: Custom.|type:checkbox|options:
 
name:noshutdown|description:Choose power plants you want to build (or keep running if they already exist) (the default selection is Helen's bio). This will become PlantPolicy: Custom.|type:checkbox|options:
 
'Biofuel heat plants';Biofuel heat plants;
 
'Biofuel heat plants';Biofuel heat plants;
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objects.latest("Op_en7392", code_name = "translate") # [[OpasnetUtils/Translate]] translate
 
objects.latest("Op_en7392", code_name = "translate") # [[OpasnetUtils/Translate]] translate
 
objects.latest("Op_en7392", code_name = "dictionary") # [[OpasnetUtils/Translate]] dictionary
 
objects.latest("Op_en7392", code_name = "dictionary") # [[OpasnetUtils/Translate]] dictionary
BS <- 24 # base_size for graph fonts
+
BSbase <- 24 # base_size for graph fonts. Use 12 if you use savefig to sav svg fils.
 +
BS <- BSbase
 
saveobjects <- FALSE
 
saveobjects <- FALSE
 +
savefigs <- FALSE
 
language <- "Finnish"
 
language <- "Finnish"
 
fi <- language == "Finnish"
 
fi <- language == "Finnish"
 +
 +
savefig <- function(
 +
fil,
 +
path = "N:/YMAL/Publications/2015/Helsingin energiapäätös/Kuvat/",
 +
sav = if(exists("savefigs")) savefigs else FALSE,
 +
type = "svg",
 +
height = 18,
 +
width = 24,
 +
units = "cm"
 +
) {
 +
if(sav) {
 +
ggsave(paste(path, fil, ".", type, sep = ""), height = height, width = width, units = units)
 +
}
 +
}
  
 
allplants <- c(
 
allplants <- c(
Line 442: Line 453:
 
y = translate("Floor area (M m2)")
 
y = translate("Floor area (M m2)")
 
)
 
)
 +
 +
savefig("Rakennuskannan koko Helsingissä")
  
 
oggplot(bui, x = "Time", fill = "Efficiency", binwidth = 5) +  
 
oggplot(bui, x = "Time", fill = "Efficiency", binwidth = 5) +  
Line 472: Line 485:
 
# Contains also other buildings than district heating and other energy than heating
 
# Contains also other buildings than district heating and other energy than heating
 
hea <- EnergyConsumerDemandTotal * temperdays * 24 * 1E-3 # MW -> GWh
 
hea <- EnergyConsumerDemandTotal * temperdays * 24 * 1E-3 # MW -> GWh
hea <- hea[hea$EnergySavingPolicy == "Energy saving total" & !hea$Consumable %in% c("District cooling", "Electric cooling") , ]
 
 
hea$Time <- as.numeric(as.character(hea$Time))
 
hea$Time <- as.numeric(as.character(hea$Time))
  
oggplot(truncateIndex(hea, cols = "Temperature", bins = 7), x = "Time", fill = "Temperature", binwidth = 5) +  
+
temp <- hea[hea$EnergySavingPolicy == "Energy saving total" & !hea$Consumable %in% c("District cooling", "Electric cooling") , ]
 +
oggplot(truncateIndex(temp, cols = "Temperature", bins = 7), x = "Time", fill = "Temperature", binwidth = 5) +  
 
{if(fi) facet_wrap(~ Hyödyke) else facet_wrap(~ Consumable)} +
 
{if(fi) facet_wrap(~ Hyödyke) else facet_wrap(~ Consumable)} +
 +
labs(
 +
title = translate("Energy consumption in all buildings"),
 +
y = translate("Total energy (GWh /a)")
 +
)
 +
 +
temp <- hea[!hea$Consumable %in% c("District cooling", "Electric cooling") , ]
 +
oggplot(temp, x = "Time", fill = "Consumable", binwidth = 5) +
 +
{if(fi) facet_wrap(~ Energiansäästöpolitiikka) else facet_wrap(~ EnergySavingPolicy)} +
 +
labs(
 +
title = translate("Energy consumption in all buildings"),
 +
y = translate("Total energy (GWh /a)")
 +
)
 +
 +
savefig("Helsingin vuotuinen energiantarve")
 +
 +
oggplot(hea, x = "Time", fill = "Consumable", binwidth = 5) +
 +
{if(fi) facet_wrap(~ Energiansäästöpolitiikka) else facet_wrap(~ EnergySavingPolicy)} +
 
labs(
 
labs(
 
title = translate("Energy consumption in all buildings"),
 
title = translate("Energy consumption in all buildings"),
Line 492: Line 522:
 
y = translate("Total energy (GWh /a)")
 
y = translate("Total energy (GWh /a)")
 
)
 
)
 +
 +
savefig("Energiankulutus verkossa Helsingissä")
  
 
eb <-EnergyNetworkOptim[EnergyNetworkOptim$Process_variable_type == "Activity",]
 
eb <-EnergyNetworkOptim[EnergyNetworkOptim$Process_variable_type == "Activity",]
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y = translate("Average daily activity (MW)")
 
y = translate("Average daily activity (MW)")
 
)
 
)
 +
 +
savefig("Helsingin päivittäinen kaukolämpötase")
  
 
ebtemp <- eb[eb$Time %in% c("2005") & eb$PlantPolicy == "BAU" & eb$Temperature == "(0,3]" , ]
 
ebtemp <- eb[eb$Time %in% c("2005") & eb$PlantPolicy == "BAU" & eb$Temperature == "(0,3]" , ]
Line 564: Line 598:
 
)
 
)
  
futemp <- fu[fu$Fuel %in% c("Electricity") , ]
+
savefig("Helsingin vuotuinen kaukolämpötase")
futemp <- truncateIndex(futemp, cols = "Plant", bins = 10) * -1
+
 
 +
futemp <- fu[fu$Fuel %in% c("Electricity") & fu$Plant != "Kymijoki River's plants", ]
 +
futemp <- truncateIndex(futemp, cols = "Plant", bins = 7) * -1
  
 +
# Does not contain plants outside Helsinki: Kymijoki River's plants, a share of Olkiluoto nuclear plant.
 
oggplot(futemp, x = "Time", fill = "Plant", binwidth = 5) +  
 
oggplot(futemp, x = "Time", fill = "Plant", binwidth = 5) +  
 
{if(fi) facet_wrap(~ Voimalapolitiikka) else facet_wrap(~ PlantPolicy)} +
 
{if(fi) facet_wrap(~ Voimalapolitiikka) else facet_wrap(~ PlantPolicy)} +
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y = translate("Total annual energy (GWh/a)")
 
y = translate("Total annual energy (GWh/a)")
 
)
 
)
 +
 +
savefig("Helsingin vuotuinen sähkötase")
  
 
emis <- truncateIndex(emissions, cols = "Emission_site", bins = 5)
 
emis <- truncateIndex(emissions, cols = "Emission_site", bins = 5)
Line 585: Line 624:
 
) +  
 
) +  
 
scale_x_continuous(breaks = c(2000, 2050))
 
scale_x_continuous(breaks = c(2000, 2050))
 +
 +
savefig("Helsingin energiantuotannon päästöt")
  
 
da <- DALYs[DALYs$EnergySavingPolicy == "Energy saving total" & DALYs$Fuel != "Electricity" , ]
 
da <- DALYs[DALYs$EnergySavingPolicy == "Energy saving total" & DALYs$Fuel != "Electricity" , ]
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y = translate("Health effects (DALY /a)")
 
y = translate("Health effects (DALY /a)")
 
)
 
)
 +
 +
savefig("Helsingin energiantuotannon terveysvaikutukset")
  
 
fp <- fuelPrice[fuelPrice$Fuel %in% c(
 
fp <- fuelPrice[fuelPrice$Fuel %in% c(
Line 619: Line 662:
 
y = translate("Price (Eur/MWh)")
 
y = translate("Price (Eur/MWh)")
 
)
 
)
 +
 +
savefig("Polttoaineiden verolliset hinnat")
  
 
tc <- truncateIndex(totalCost, cols = "Plant", bins = 11) / 10 * -1 # Yearly benefits (costs are negative)
 
tc <- truncateIndex(totalCost, cols = "Plant", bins = 11) / 10 * -1 # Yearly benefits (costs are negative)
Line 628: Line 673:
 
y = translate("Yearly cash flow (Meur)"),
 
y = translate("Yearly cash flow (Meur)"),
 
title = translate("Total benefits and costs of energy production")
 
title = translate("Total benefits and costs of energy production")
)
+
)+
 +
scale_x_continuous(breaks = c(2000, 2020, 2040, 2060))
 +
 
 +
savefig("Energiantuotannon kokonaiskustannus Helsingissä kustannuksittain")
  
 
oggplot(tc, x = "Time", fill = "Plant", binwidth = 10) +  
 
oggplot(tc, x = "Time", fill = "Plant", binwidth = 10) +  
Line 635: Line 683:
 
y = translate("Yearly cash flow (Meur)"),
 
y = translate("Yearly cash flow (Meur)"),
 
title = translate("Total benefits and costs of energy production")
 
title = translate("Total benefits and costs of energy production")
)
+
)+
 +
scale_x_continuous(breaks = c(2000, 2020, 2040, 2060))
 +
 
 +
savefig("Energiantuotannon kokonaiskustannus Helsingissä voimaloittain")
  
 
eac <- EAC[EAC$EnergySavingPolicy == "Energy saving total" , ] * -1
 
eac <- EAC[EAC$EnergySavingPolicy == "Energy saving total" , ] * -1
  
BS <- 14 # Plot the next two graphs with smaller font because they are busy graphs.
+
BS <- BSbase * 0.7 # Plot the next two graphs with smaller font because they are busy graphs.
  
 
eac2 <- eac[!eac$Plant %in% c(
 
eac2 <- eac[!eac$Plant %in% c(
Line 660: Line 711:
 
y = translate("Effective annual cash flow (Meur/a)")
 
y = translate("Effective annual cash flow (Meur/a)")
 
)
 
)
 +
 +
savefig("Helsingin voimalaitosten kustannustehokkuus")
  
 
oggplot(eac2, x = "PlantPolicy", fill = "Cost", turnx = TRUE)+
 
oggplot(eac2, x = "PlantPolicy", fill = "Cost", turnx = TRUE)+
Line 668: Line 721:
 
)
 
)
  
BS <- 24
+
savefig("Helsingin voimalaitosten kustannustehokkuus yhtenäisasteikolla")
 +
 
 +
BS <- BSbase
 
eac <- truncateIndex(eac, cols = "Plant", bins = 11)
 
eac <- truncateIndex(eac, cols = "Plant", bins = 11)
  
Line 682: Line 737:
 
y = translate("Effective annual cash flow (Meur/a)")
 
y = translate("Effective annual cash flow (Meur/a)")
 
)
 
)
 +
 +
savefig("Teholliset tulot ja menot energiantuotannosta Helsingissä kustannuksittain")
  
 
temp <- truncateIndex(plantParameters[plantParameters$Parameter == "Max" , ], cols = "Plant", bins = 11)
 
temp <- truncateIndex(plantParameters[plantParameters$Parameter == "Max" , ], cols = "Plant", bins = 11)
Line 692: Line 749:
 
)
 
)
  
odag() #Plots a directed acyclic graph of ovariables used in the model.
+
savefig("Energiantuotantokapasiteetin kehitys Helsingissä")
 +
 
 +
# odag() #Plots a directed acyclic graph of ovariables used in the model.
 
# This causes an internal error, so it must be the last row of the model.
 
# This causes an internal error, so it must be the last row of the model.
  
 
</rcode>
 
</rcode>
 +
<noinclude>
  
 
=== Results ===
 
=== Results ===
  
 
<gallery widths=400px heights=400px>
 
<gallery widths=400px heights=400px>
File:Daily energy balance in Helsinki.png|Daily average production of energy in the city of Helsinki depending on the outside temperature for business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and year 2035.
+
File:Daily energy balance in Helsinki.png|Daily average production of district heat energy in the city of Helsinki depending on the outside temperature for energy saving total scenario and year 2035.
File:Yearly energy balance in Helsinki.png|Total annual expenditure and production of energy in the city of Helsinki in years 2015, 2035 and 2065 depending on the energy policy adopted.
+
File:Yearly energy balance in Helsinki.png|Total annual expenditure and production of district heat energy in the city of Helsinki in 2035 after energy saving total policy.
 
File:Building stock in Helsinki by heating.png|Current data and estimation of future building stock of Helsinki by heating type.
 
File:Building stock in Helsinki by heating.png|Current data and estimation of future building stock of Helsinki by heating type.
File:Energy used in heating in Helsinki.png|Energy used in heating in Helsinki by energy saving policy and different energy renovations that are done to buildings older than 30 a.
+
File:Energy used in heating in Helsinki.png|Energy used in heating, consumer electricity, and hot water in Helsinki in the energy saving total policy.
 +
File:fuelprices.png|Fuel prices used in optimising.
 +
File:Energy production capacity in Helsinki.png|Energy production capacity in Helsinki by plant policy
 +
File:Incomes and costs of energy production in Helsinki.png|Incomes and costs of energy production in Helsinki by power plant. Note that the y axes are on different scales.
 +
File:Flow of electric power in Helsinki.png|Flow of electric power in Helsinki by plant policy. Many policies result in severe electricity demand from outside the city. This is possibly not a problem, but the decision maker should be aware of such side effect.
 +
File:District heat flow in Helsinki.png|Flow of district heat in Helsinki. The supply is always matched with the demand.
 +
File:Health effects of PM2.5 from heating in Helsinki.png|Health effects of PM2.5 from heating in Helsinki.
 +
File:Emissions from heating in Helsinki.png|Emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 from heating in Helsinki.
 
</gallery>
 
</gallery>
  
[[File:fuelprices.png|600px]]
+
=== Conclusions ===
 
 
Development of prices of power plant fuels over time.
 
  
=== Conclusions ===
+
See summary in the beginning.
 +
</noinclude>
  
 
== Rationale ==
 
== Rationale ==
 
[[image:Helsinki energy decision 2015.png|thumb|400px|Causal diagram for the assessment.]]
 
[[image:Helsinki energy decision 2015.png|thumb|400px|Causal diagram for the assessment.]]
 +
<noinclude>
  
 
=== Stakeholders ===
 
=== Stakeholders ===
Line 923: Line 990:
 
* Energy production: Burner (type of burner used in the facility where energy is produced), Fuel (type of fuel used in energy production), Heating (type of heating in the building).
 
* Energy production: Burner (type of burner used in the facility where energy is produced), Fuel (type of fuel used in energy production), Heating (type of heating in the building).
 
* Buildings: Building [use type], Heating, Constructed, City area, Renovation, Efficiency.
 
* Buildings: Building [use type], Heating, Constructed, City area, Renovation, Efficiency.
 +
</noinclude>
 +
 +
=== Case-specific ovariables ===
 +
 +
Name is the name of ovariable that has case-specific rather than default content. Ident is the indentifier of the code that defines the case-specific ovariable. Token is the same as Ident but it uses a specific version of the code rather than the newest version. Latest is the code for an ovariable whose dependencies will be changed, i.e. who has the case-specific ovariable as parent. Get is the same as Latest but a specific version rather than the newest version is fetched.
 +
 +
<t2b name="Case-specific ovariables" index="Name,Ident,Token,Latest,Get" obs="Description" unit="-">
 +
buildings|Op_en6289/buildingstest||Op_en5488/EnergyConsumerDemand||[[Building model]] buildings # Generic building model
 +
changeBuildings|Op_en7115/changeBuildings||Op_en6289/buildingstest||
 +
demolitionRate|Op_en7115/demolitionRate||Op_en6289/buildingstest||
 +
efficiencyShares|Op_en5488/efficiencyShares||Op_en6289/buildingstest||
 +
emissionLocations|Op_en7311/emissionLocationsPerPlant||Op_en2791/emissionstest||[[Helsinki energy production]] emissionLocations, used by[[Emission factors for burning processes]] emissions
 +
energyProcess|Op_en7311/energyProcess||Op_en5141/EnergyNetworkOptim||[[Helsinki energy production]] energyProcess, used by [[Energy balance]] EnergyConsumerDemandTotal
 +
exposure|Op_en5813/exposure|||| [[Intake fractions of PM]] exposure # uses Humbert iF as default.
 +
fuelShares|Op_en7311/fuelShares||Op_en2791/emissionFactors||[[Helsinki energy production]] fuelShares, used by ([[Emission factors for burning processes]] emissionFactors?)
 +
plantParameters|Op_en7311/plantParameters||Op_en3283/totalCost||[[Helsinki energy production]] plantParameters, used by [[Economic impacts]] plantCost
 +
renovationRate|Op_en7115/renovationRate||Op_en6289/buildingstest||[[Building stock in Helsinki]] renovationRate
 +
|||Op_en7115/renovationRate||[[Building stock in Helsinki]] renovationRate case-specific adjustment in formula
 +
renovationShares|Op_en7115/renovationShares||Op_en6289/buildingstest||
 +
stockBuildings|Op_en7115/stockBuildings||Op_en6289/buildingstest||
 +
temperatures|Op_en2959/temperatures||Op_en5488/EnergyConsumerDemand|| [[Outdoor air temperature in Finland]], used by [[Energy use of buildings]] EnergyConsumerDemand
 +
temperdays|Op_en2959/temperatures||Op_en5488/EnergyConsumerDemand|| [[Outdoor air temperature in Finland]]
 +
</t2b>
  
 
=== Calculations ===
 
=== Calculations ===
  
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=vjTT6BjPtWIkLcAl Model run 2.7.2015] with intermediate result tables but a problem with totcases.
+
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=N5yJnBbYuXKXcWAO Model run 25.10.2015]. Archived version with several updates
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=pP2FsmdaijIfcz80 Model run 5.7.2015]
+
* Model run 17.12.2018 for HNH2035 [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=1Eo9xxSX45YldilV]
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=any4I2Y1gXfWtxER Model run 6.7.2015] with corrected energyBalance model.
+
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=xmzcj8gvOZsYpScd Model run 7.7.2015]
+
<rcode name="intermediates" label="Store intermediates (for developers only)" graphics=1 store=1>
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=PNSmPRBuFdxysbRO Model run 8.7.2015] with daily heat optimising
+
## This code is Op_en7237/intermediates on page [[Helsinki energy decision 2015]]
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=x0t1a3M44AeiWg4F Model run 9.7.2015] with also consumer electricity and cooling
+
library(OpasnetUtils)
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=KTNmnTh1Ai1FXOW2 Model run 9.7.2015] attempt to adjust decisions to plausible
+
library(ggplot2)
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=VXYsYzhq5wihX8g0 Model run 11.7.2015] updated emission factors and decision options
+
library(rgdal)
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=oABWo0x0u6zsA8ZY Model run 12.7.2015]
+
#library(maptools)
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=ixOkV2SnjMo1Pne1 Model run 15.7.2015] the whole model works but there seems to be a unit conversion error or similar from energy balance on.
+
library(RColorBrewer)
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=kZuzQaO3mnpkl8Wz Model run 15.7.2015] long-term plant activity and fuel use added
+
#library(classInt)
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=uqEh554tIfmDKjvW Model run 16.7.2015] used to store intermediate results for Answer code.
+
#library(RgoogleMaps)
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=2EIjgeJ0OnJjfJcZ New model initial run 23.7.2015]
+
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=IxmleCN7hW80URAd Model run 24.7.2015]
+
### Technical parameters
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=GQGqRQUwrTX7lzzi Model run 27.7.2015]
+
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=ejNvy1EscdzooTxP Model run 27.7.2015] with shorter names and clearer graphs.
+
openv.setN(0) # use medians instead of whole sampled distributions
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=9PE7a4B1mBhUjlcR Model run 29.7.2015]
+
BS <- 24 # base_size = font size in graphs
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=6KeCs0rS7dpdrtHQ Model run 14.8.2015] Total construction corrected but oil heating not yet. Objects saved.
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=yc7vpnJErCPYLoSJ Model run 16.8.2016] With first cost estimates
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=HrRkCq1EyAd0V7bj Model run 16.8.2015] Better cost estimates. Objects stored.
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=POPfXqpcyS9s7Adf Model run 17.8.2015] Incremental oil heating conversion to geothermal implemented.
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=5uDBil9PcGEsv9LJ Model run 29.8.2015] Fixed plot scaling
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=goJdvrDzXp3Toedb Model run 2.9.2015] with updated process and price parameters.
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=NTkgZ2NfWGeQhdMM Model run 4.9.2015] BAU and Helen's bio decision updated.
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=8hJVMdh8aAy1E0sV Model run 5.9.2015] with technical improvements
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=wCUnFoiRLYePywae] some bugs fixed, no the whole model works
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=4jqvkC2hjuJQcvPH Model run 12.10.2015] New temperature data from FMI and WWF energy saving policy (from 8.10.2015 report) added
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=64BJmkBocy0ZEKEu Model run 22.10.2015] with updated fuel prices (no graphs in this run)
 
 
 
<rcode name="intermediates" label="Store intermediates (for developers only)" graphics=1 store=1>
 
## This code is Op_en7237/intermediates on page [[Helsinki energy decision 2015]]
 
library(OpasnetUtils)
 
library(ggplot2)
 
library(rgdal)
 
library(maptools)
 
library(RColorBrewer)
 
library(classInt)
 
library(RgoogleMaps)
 
 
 
### Technical parameters
 
 
 
openv.setN(0) # use medians instead of whole sampled distributions
 
BS <- 24 # base_size = font size in graphs
 
 
figstofile <- FALSE
 
figstofile <- FALSE
saveobjects <- FALSE
+
saveobjects <- TRUE
  
 
########################## Case-specific data and submodels
 
########################## Case-specific data and submodels
Line 1,102: Line 1,166:
  
 
############################ Output tables and graphs
 
############################ Output tables and graphs
 +
if(FALSE) {
  
 
fuelUse <- EvalOutput(fuelUse)
 
fuelUse <- EvalOutput(fuelUse)
Line 1,258: Line 1,323:
 
y = "Health effects (DALY /a)"
 
y = "Health effects (DALY /a)"
 
)
 
)
 
+
} # END if(FALSE)
 
</rcode>
 
</rcode>
 +
<noinclude>
  
 
==== Preference order ====
 
==== Preference order ====
 +
 +
'''This code should be used for new model runs. It is newer but not fully adjusted for its purpose yet.
  
 
<rcode name="preferenceorder" graphics=1>
 
<rcode name="preferenceorder" graphics=1>
Line 1,716: Line 1,784:
 
</rcode>
 
</rcode>
  
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=LwgipxX9IFCdAIRI Model run 8.9.2015]
+
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=mJ2PgbC7TBP6w6RA Model run 22.10.2015] with updated fuel prices. This is NOT used for the assessment report, because the scenarios were based on the previous fuel prices.
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=6XrzKix5Cbp0Ol9S Model run 9.9.2015] with much more graphs
+
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=mJ2PgbC7TBP6w6RA Model run 22.10.2015] with updated fuel prices
+
'''This code was used for prioritizing before fuel prices were updated.
  
 
<rcode name="preferenceorder" graphics=1>
 
<rcode name="preferenceorder" graphics=1>
Line 2,195: Line 2,263:
 
{{assessment|moderator=Jouni|status=ongoing}}
 
{{assessment|moderator=Jouni|status=ongoing}}
 
{{Helsinki energy decision 2015}}  
 
{{Helsinki energy decision 2015}}  
 +
 +
{| class="wikitable collapsible collapsed"
 +
! Previous model runs and links
 +
|----
 +
|
 +
 +
=== Previous model runs ===
 +
 +
==== Final model ====
 +
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=pKBjzl8RJnwvvrHA Model run 26.10.2015] nuisance power plants removed from plant-wise cash flow graphs.
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=nZL5q8sr2yvOi2xN Model run 25.10.2015] benefits always positive, costs negative
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=oap5s3pqqrZz9eAP Model run 22.10.2015] contains also energy consumption graphs but objects were not stored.
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=NN5k0XgmmQBsjWb3 Model run 22.10.2015] with Finnish texts and new fuel prices. Objects stored for later examination.
 +
* 5.10.2015 with Finnish texts [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=UcIL6G6OmFwk1sOg]
 +
* 10.9.2015 model run for the seminar 11.9.: [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=Lxpx944xwD5V0DBw Preference model] [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=JOI0ZXiISnNkUNK8 model part 1]  [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=k7zUPAo436wEbFAg model part 2]
 +
** An additional model run 25.9.2015 to show a directed acyclic graph of the model ovariables [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=ufoXJLoL8bJSDdki].
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=W9GaPYU04pdgLVtD Model run 9.9.2015] with old and new graphs. ''Custom'' option is the same as ''Cheapest'' in the preference analysis
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=eSpi8FBqfKbl7NKD Model run 6.9.2015]
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=E2jFkLL7QuCFQ0Tt Model run 5.9.2015]
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=d3bp5VSYGCagxhWl Model run 4.9.2015] Cost calculations are up to profit including external costs.
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=9PE7a4B1mBhUjlcR Model run 29.7.2015] Full run with lots of graphs.
 +
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=4klHVl14kKW0RqDF What happens if you shut down both fossil and biofuel plants?]
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=lJf2oQkm1wjHOqtE What happens if you shut down coal and gas power plants?]
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=9c3Otq1qJIO19qzx What happens if you shut down both coal-fired power plants?]
 +
 +
==== Intermediate calculations without plant optimising ====
 +
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=vjTT6BjPtWIkLcAl Model run 2.7.2015] with intermediate result tables but a problem with totcases.
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=pP2FsmdaijIfcz80 Model run 5.7.2015]
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=any4I2Y1gXfWtxER Model run 6.7.2015] with corrected energyBalance model.
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=xmzcj8gvOZsYpScd Model run 7.7.2015]
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=PNSmPRBuFdxysbRO Model run 8.7.2015] with daily heat optimising
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=x0t1a3M44AeiWg4F Model run 9.7.2015] with also consumer electricity and cooling
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=KTNmnTh1Ai1FXOW2 Model run 9.7.2015] attempt to adjust decisions to plausible
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=VXYsYzhq5wihX8g0 Model run 11.7.2015] updated emission factors and decision options
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=oABWo0x0u6zsA8ZY Model run 12.7.2015]
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=ixOkV2SnjMo1Pne1 Model run 15.7.2015] the whole model works but there seems to be a unit conversion error or similar from energy balance on.
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=kZuzQaO3mnpkl8Wz Model run 15.7.2015] long-term plant activity and fuel use added
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=uqEh554tIfmDKjvW Model run 16.7.2015] used to store intermediate results for Answer code.
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=2EIjgeJ0OnJjfJcZ New model initial run 23.7.2015]
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=IxmleCN7hW80URAd Model run 24.7.2015]
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=GQGqRQUwrTX7lzzi Model run 27.7.2015]
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=ejNvy1EscdzooTxP Model run 27.7.2015] with shorter names and clearer graphs.
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=9PE7a4B1mBhUjlcR Model run 29.7.2015]
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=6KeCs0rS7dpdrtHQ Model run 14.8.2015] Total construction corrected but oil heating not yet. Objects saved.
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=yc7vpnJErCPYLoSJ Model run 16.8.2016] With first cost estimates
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=HrRkCq1EyAd0V7bj Model run 16.8.2015] Better cost estimates. Objects stored.
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=POPfXqpcyS9s7Adf Model run 17.8.2015] Incremental oil heating conversion to geothermal implemented.
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=5uDBil9PcGEsv9LJ Model run 29.8.2015] Fixed plot scaling
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=goJdvrDzXp3Toedb Model run 2.9.2015] with updated process and price parameters.
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=NTkgZ2NfWGeQhdMM Model run 4.9.2015] BAU and Helen's bio decision updated.
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=8hJVMdh8aAy1E0sV Model run 5.9.2015] with technical improvements
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=wCUnFoiRLYePywae] some bugs fixed, no the whole model works
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=4jqvkC2hjuJQcvPH Model run 12.10.2015] New temperature data from FMI and WWF energy saving policy (from 8.10.2015 report) added
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=64BJmkBocy0ZEKEu Model run 22.10.2015] with updated fuel prices (no graphs in this run)
 +
 +
==== Preference order calculations ====
 +
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=LwgipxX9IFCdAIRI Model run 8.9.2015]
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=6XrzKix5Cbp0Ol9S Model run 9.9.2015] with much more graphs
 +
 +
=== Relevant links ===
  
 
* [https://www.entsoe.eu/Documents/Publications/Statistics/Factsheet/entsoe_sfs2014_web.pdf Entsoe Statistical fact sheet 2014]
 
* [https://www.entsoe.eu/Documents/Publications/Statistics/Factsheet/entsoe_sfs2014_web.pdf Entsoe Statistical fact sheet 2014]
Line 2,247: Line 2,379:
 
* [http://www.hel.fi/www/rakvv/fi/tietopankki/ohjeet/ Helsingin rakennusvalvonnan ohjeet]
 
* [http://www.hel.fi/www/rakvv/fi/tietopankki/ohjeet/ Helsingin rakennusvalvonnan ohjeet]
 
* [[:op_fi:Tiedosto:Helsingin_30_prosentin_päästövähennysselvitys.pdf|Helsingin 30 % päästövähennysselvitys]]
 
* [[:op_fi:Tiedosto:Helsingin_30_prosentin_päästövähennysselvitys.pdf|Helsingin 30 % päästövähennysselvitys]]
 +
 +
|}
  
 
== Keywords ==
 
== Keywords ==
  
Energy, renewable energy, nuclear energy, fossil energy, wood pellets, power plants, district heating, decentralised energy production, centralised energy production, cost-effectiveness
+
Energy, renewable energy, nuclear energy, fossil energy, wood pellets, power plants, district heating, decentralised energy production, centralised energy production, cost-effectiveness, Helsinki, climate change, health effects, fine particles, biofuels, energy saving.
  
 
== References ==
 
== References ==
Line 2,259: Line 2,393:
  
 
* {{#l:Assessment of small-scale energy production in Helsinki Metropolitan area.zip}} {{defend|# |This contains all Pasi's assessment's data tables and is very useful!|--[[User:Jouni|Jouni]] ([[User talk:Jouni|talk]]) 17:05, 14 May 2015 (UTC)}}
 
* {{#l:Assessment of small-scale energy production in Helsinki Metropolitan area.zip}} {{defend|# |This contains all Pasi's assessment's data tables and is very useful!|--[[User:Jouni|Jouni]] ([[User talk:Jouni|talk]]) 17:05, 14 May 2015 (UTC)}}
 +
</noinclude>

Latest revision as of 16:11, 28 April 2019

Main message:
Question:

Helsinki will make a large energy decision during fall 2015. it will impact energy production for decades. An important decision requires systematic information. How do we guarantee a continuous and sufficient supply of district heat and electricity in Helsinki around the year for the next fifty years in such a way that the impacts on costs, health, climate change, and sustainable growth are as beneficial as possible? How can decentralised energy production and energy efficiency renovations improve the situation? The latter question was asked by the City Council, and another assessment (coordinated by the city of Helsinki and Helen energy company) will answer that soon.

Answer:

National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) performed an open assessment on the Opasnet web-workspace during summer and fall 2015 aiming at shared understanding. We utilised knowledge crystals, i.e. regurlarly updated collaborative online answers to specific research questions. Based on them, we built a model called Sofia to assess impacts and implementability of several different energy options in Helsinki. An assessment report| has been published in Finnish.

Sofia can estimate the building stock and energy consumption based on average energy efficiency, floor area, and ambient temperature. Sofia is an energy balance model that optimises costs of energy production while ensuring the supply of district heating in Helsinki for each day. The situation is followed from 1985 to 2065. Sofia looks also at other heat, fuel, and electric power consumption, but not those of industry and traffic.

Based on balanced energy production Sofia estimates the fuel and other costs and greenhouse gas and fine particle emissions from power plants and other energy processes. The model can assess several scenarios and thus compare the overall impacts of different actions, such as energy renovations or new power plants.

Sofia's main conclusion is that the energy solutions seem to fall into two categories: those that produce electric power as a side stream of district heat, like in Hanasaari coal plant and the suggested Vuosaari C biofuel plant; and those that do not produce or even consume a large amount of electricity, like decentralised biofuel heat plants or sea heat pumps. Based on current discussions, the self-sufficiency of electric power in Helsinki seems to be disappearing and probably changing into a deep dependency of outside electricity. The development of the Nordic electric market determines whether this will be a problem or not in the future.

Unfortunately, the electric market is under strong transition, and for example the wind power tariffes complicate the situation, making future predictions of this crucial issue even more difficult. Local heat production solutions are in a great need of a clear and systematic national electric policy. Otherwise, the previously very efficient combined heat and power production will be replaced with something much less efficient in Finland in the future.

If we forget the question about self-sufficiency of electric power and focus only on district heat, there are several cost-effective solutions available. Excess heat from different processes such as data centres or Neste oil refinery seem to be more cost-effective than e.g. Vuosaari C biofuel plant. Also small and large heat pumps that take heat from the environment are cost-effective. District heat from Loviisa 3 nuclear power plant is also cost-effective in our estimates, but we were not able to fully charaterise uncertainties in the investment cost; and we must remember that the decision to build or not to build the reactor is not in the hands of Helsinki.

A major problem with the process heat solutions is that they consume electric power exactly when the demand for power is the largest and price the highest. We were not able to assess the variability of the price of electricity in this assessment, but it is substantial and might change conclusions. Also for this reason, there is a need for a national energy balance model with hourly resolution including eletricity, industry, and traffic.

Health and climate impacts are important in every single option we looked at, together ranging between a fifth and a fourth of all costs, health and climate comprising a half of that each. Surprisingly, differences between policy options in this respect were small even if the reputation of the climate-friendliness of the options was very different. According to Sofia, this is due to several reasons. All large power plants filter fine particles out very effectively, and therefore there are no large differences in health impacts; a clear exception is small-scale wood burning in houses, which has several times larger health problems than any other option despite its marginal role in energy production. Also, the life cycle emissions of fine particles and greenhouse gases is also important: even if the direct emissions from a heat pump are zero, the electric power imported has produced emissions somewhere. Biofuels are considered climate neutral in emission trade, but they still produce emissions during their life cycle. Therefore, even a fuel switch does not produce the expected results.

Of course, the conclusions based on the model depend on the goodness of the data used. There are several uncertainties that should have been clarified had there been more time to work on the topic. Especially the fuel prices are very difficult to predict into the future. Also the fuel taxes are very high for some fuels but not for others. Effectively, the society decides, using taxes, which solutions make sense on the city level. This is a third reason why there should be a national, long-term, and clear energy policy - and tax policy supporting it - based on detailed, open energy balance modelling the best available information.


Scope

Question

Helsinki must be able to provide its residents with reliable, climate-friendly and cost-effective district heating and electricity every day all year round for the decades to come. When this energy balance is assessed, what options does Helsinki have for main energy solutions? What kind of impacts do these options have in terms of

  • climate mitigation,
  • stability (fuel availability etc),
  • cost to the city and citizens,
  • environment,
  • biofuel use,
  • national energy balance,
  • domestic source,
  • health?[1]

Intended use and users

Helsinki City Council will make a major decision in autumn 2015 about renovating old power plants, building a new one, or some other option replacing the need of the old power plants. Therefore, the City Council is the major user of the assessment. There are also secondary uses, such as informing national energy discussion and demonstrating the usefulness of an open combined energy balance and building model.

Participants

The work is coordinated by Jouni Tuomisto from THL / Impact Assessment Unit. Their motivation is to contribute to the decision-making process by bringing quantitative results to help assess the health and other impacts of different options in a transparent manner. Participants that we hope get involved when they are informed about the assessment include

  • THL: Jouni, Pauli, Teemu, Matleena, Julia
  • the City of Helsinki,
  • Helen energy company
  • Uusi energiapolitiikka group
  • Energiaremontti 2015

Boundaries

  • Time: 1985 - 2065
  • Energy need estimated for Helsinki.
  • Main focus is on local heat and power need. Energy balance estimated for Helsinki (electricity nationally).
  • Health impacts estimated for the regional area (ca. 300 km radius)
  • Impacts are assessed separately for the citizen, the city, Helen energy company, and Finland.
  • Transport is not looked at although it is an important energy consumer. This is because there is no interaction with heating except via city structure, and there are no resources to look at that in this assessment. Electric cars would have an interaction with electricity production, but that applies to the total electricity market area (Finland, partly Scandinavia) and is too complex to look at.

Decisions and scenarios

Main article: Helsinki energy decision options 2015

The two options in the official decision preparation as of May 2015 are i) Hanasaari shutdown and Vuosaari C, and ii) Hanasaari 40 bio and Salmisaari 40 bio. However, also other options have been suggested, and also they are evaluated at least superficially.

  1. BAU: Only small, essential renovations are made to current power plants to stay within new emission limits.
  2. Vuosaari C: A new power plant is built in Vuosaari with the capacity to burn 100 % wood-based fuel or any combination of wood-based fuels and coal.
  3. Hanasaari shutdown: The Hanasaari powerplant is shut down, demolished and apartment buildings are built in its place.
  4. Hanasaari 40 bio: The Hanasaari power plant is renovated to burn 40% wood-based fuels and 60% coal.
  5. Salmisaari 40 bio: The Salmisaari power plants are renovated to burn 40% wood-based fuels and 60% coal.
  6. Biofueled heat production units: Salmisaari oilfueled heat plant is shut down and new biofuel burning heat plants are built in Salmisaari and Vuorsaari.
  7. Loviisa nuclear CHP: A third nuclear power plant is built in Loviisa and the heat is used for district heating in Helsinki.
  8. Neste excess heat: The excess heat from the Neste's oil refinery in Porvoo is used for district heating in Helsinki.
  9. Decentralised energy production: The amount of decentralised energy production is increased as much as possible. Practically this means building a lot more solar panels, geothermal power, small-scale wood burning and wind mills around Helsinki.
  10. Large heat pumps: Big heat pumps are installed to draw heat from the Baltic sea or deep from the ground to produce district heating.
  11. Energy saving: With huge energy saving campaigns and by renovating buildings to be more energy efficient the amount of required energy is decreased significantly.
BAU Process heat Helen proposition Zero investment Carbon neutral 2050 CHP bio Distributed and sea
Biofuel heat plants No No Yes No Yes No No
CHP diesel generators No No No No No No Yes
Data center heat No Yes No No No No Yes
Deep-drill heat No No No No No No Yes
Hanasaari renovated for biofuels Yes No Yes No No No
Household air heat pumps Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Household air conditioning Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Household geothermal heat Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Household solar Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Katri Vala cooling Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Katri Vala heat Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Kellosaari back-up plant Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Kymijoki River's plants Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Loviisa nuclear heat No Yes No No No No No
Neste oil refinery heat No Yes No No Yes No No
Salmisaari A&B renovated for biofuels Yes Yes Yes No renovated for biofuels Yes
Sea heat pump No No No No Yes No Yes
Sea heat pump for cooling No No No No No No Yes
Small-scale wood burning No No No No No No No
Small gas heat plants Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Small fuel oil heat plants Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Suvilahti power storage Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Vanhakaupunki museum Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Vuosaari A Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Vuosaari B Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Vuosaari C biofuel No No No No Yes Yes No
Wind mills No No No No Yes Yes Yes



There are two policies that are currently implemented in the model. Each has several options:

  • Energy saving policy: take several actions that reduce the energy demand of the building stock.
    • BAU: business as usual, e.g. renovate 1 % of buildings per year if age > 30 a.
    • Energy saving moderate: renovate 2 %/a
    • Energy saving total: renovate 4 %/a, in addition increase the share of passive buildings up by 25 %-units since 2025, and add the share of sheath reform renovations up by 25 %-units.
    • WWF energy saving: energy saving according to WWF energy saving plan published 8th October 2015. It is based on efficient energy saving actions on buildings and consequental possibility to reduce coal energy. The savings are based on increased energy renovations (2.5 % per year), more effective renovations in 10 % of renovation cases, and demolition of old buildings (1 % per year).[2]
  • Plant policy: Choose an optimal selection of power plant infrastructure. These poicy options are the main focus of the assessment. There is a separate table describing these options.

Timing

The assessment started in May 2015. First draft results are expected before midsummer 2015. Final results should be available well before the City Council makes the decision in autumn, which means that results should exist by September 15th, 2015. There will be a public meeting to present the near-final results and discuss their implications. The meeting was held in THL, Helsinki on 11st September 2015 at noon. The final report was published on 27th October 2015.

Answer

Model with user interface

The final results results can be found from model run 1.11.2015 (token 144638929414). It is the final archived version in English. Objects were stored, so you can download the whole assessment to R in your own computer.

Choose power plants you want to build (or keep running if they already exist) (the default selection is Helen's bio). This will become PlantPolicy: Custom.:
Biofuel heat plants
CHP diesel generators
Data center heat
Deep-drill heat
Hanasaari
Household air heat pumps
Household air conditioning
Household geothermal heat
Katri Vala cooling
Katri Vala heat
Kellosaari back-up plant
Loviisa nuclear heat
Neste oil refinery heat
Salmisaari A&B
Salmisaari biofuel renovation
Sea heat pump
Sea heat pump for cooling
Small gas heat plants
Small fuel oil heat plants
Small-scale wood burning
Vuosaari A
Vuosaari B
Vuosaari C biofuel

Choose power plants to be renovated (PlantPolicy: Custom):
Hanasaari biofuel renovation

+ Show code


Results

Conclusions

See summary in the beginning.


Rationale

Causal diagram for the assessment.


Stakeholders

The impacts are assessed and valued from the point of view of the following stakeholders:

  • The city of Helsinki
  • Helen Oy energy company
  • A citizen of Helsinki
  • Finland
  • Global view

Dependencies

List of key pages used in model


Other models used in the Helsinki assessment (but are not in the core of this assessment)


Analyses

  • Cost-benefit analysis of different options. Costs considered: capital and operational costs of energy production, climate costs (CO2e emissions converted to euros), health (DALYs converted to euros).
  • Total capacity availability and feasibility (applies especially to decentralised option).
  • Temporal heat and power demand and supply (hourly resolution).

Indices

  • Temporal: Time (5-year observation periods)
  • Temperature (3-degree-Celsius intervals for ambient daily average temperatures. It is assumed that heating is not needed above 17 C and cooling is not needed below 24 C. Hot water need is independent of ambient temperature.
  • Decisions: EnergySavingPolicy contains options that reduce the energy need of the building stock and other consumption. PlantPolicy contains options about which energy plants to build (or demolish).
  • Stakeholder (Citizen, City, Helen, Finland)
  • Spatial: City area (summed up after energy need)
  • Health: Response (any disease that is linked to Exposure agents emitted)
  • Emission, exposure: Pollutant or Exposure agent (any agent that is emitted by energy production)
  • Energy production: Burner (type of burner used in the facility where energy is produced), Fuel (type of fuel used in energy production), Heating (type of heating in the building).
  • Buildings: Building [use type], Heating, Constructed, City area, Renovation, Efficiency.


Case-specific ovariables

Name is the name of ovariable that has case-specific rather than default content. Ident is the indentifier of the code that defines the case-specific ovariable. Token is the same as Ident but it uses a specific version of the code rather than the newest version. Latest is the code for an ovariable whose dependencies will be changed, i.e. who has the case-specific ovariable as parent. Get is the same as Latest but a specific version rather than the newest version is fetched.

Case-specific ovariables(-)
ObsNameIdentTokenLatestGetDescription
1buildingsOp_en6289/buildingstestOp_en5488/EnergyConsumerDemand[[Building model]] buildings # Generic building model
2changeBuildingsOp_en7115/changeBuildingsOp_en6289/buildingstest
3demolitionRateOp_en7115/demolitionRateOp_en6289/buildingstest
4efficiencySharesOp_en5488/efficiencySharesOp_en6289/buildingstest
5emissionLocationsOp_en7311/emissionLocationsPerPlantOp_en2791/emissionstest[[Helsinki energy production]] emissionLocations, used by[[Emission factors for burning processes]] emissions
6energyProcessOp_en7311/energyProcessOp_en5141/EnergyNetworkOptim[[Helsinki energy production]] energyProcess, used by [[Energy balance]] EnergyConsumerDemandTotal
7exposureOp_en5813/exposure [[Intake fractions of PM]] exposure # uses Humbert iF as default.
8fuelSharesOp_en7311/fuelSharesOp_en2791/emissionFactors[[Helsinki energy production]] fuelShares, used by ([[Emission factors for burning processes]] emissionFactors?)
9plantParametersOp_en7311/plantParametersOp_en3283/totalCost[[Helsinki energy production]] plantParameters, used by [[Economic impacts]] plantCost
10renovationRateOp_en7115/renovationRateOp_en6289/buildingstest[[Building stock in Helsinki]] renovationRate
11Op_en7115/renovationRate[[Building stock in Helsinki]] renovationRate case-specific adjustment in formula
12renovationSharesOp_en7115/renovationSharesOp_en6289/buildingstest
13stockBuildingsOp_en7115/stockBuildingsOp_en6289/buildingstest
14temperaturesOp_en2959/temperaturesOp_en5488/EnergyConsumerDemand [[Outdoor air temperature in Finland]], used by [[Energy use of buildings]] EnergyConsumerDemand
15temperdaysOp_en2959/temperaturesOp_en5488/EnergyConsumerDemand [[Outdoor air temperature in Finland]]

Calculations

+ Show code


Preference order

This code should be used for new model runs. It is newer but not fully adjusted for its purpose yet.

+ Show code

  • Model run 22.10.2015 with updated fuel prices. This is NOT used for the assessment report, because the scenarios were based on the previous fuel prices.

This code was used for prioritizing before fuel prices were updated.

+ Show code

DALY shortcut

This code creates a ready-made DALYs estimate for 1 ug/m^3 PM2.5. It is much quicker to calculate health impacts of case-specific emissions with this ovariable, if there is a large emissions ovariable and if the exposure is such that proportionality can be assumed in health impacts.

+ Show code

See also

Helsinki energy decision 2015
In English
Assessment Main page | Helsinki energy decision options 2015
Helsinki data Building stock in Helsinki | Helsinki energy production | Helsinki energy consumption | Energy use of buildings | Emission factors for burning processes | Prices of fuels in heat production | External cost
Models Building model | Energy balance | Health impact assessment | Economic impacts
Related assessments Climate change policies in Helsinki | Climate change policies and health in Kuopio | Climate change policies in Basel
In Finnish
Yhteenveto Helsingin energiapäätös 2015 | Helsingin energiapäätöksen vaihtoehdot 2015 | Helsingin energiapäätökseen liittyviä arvoja | Helsingin energiapäätös 2015.pptx

Keywords

Energy, renewable energy, nuclear energy, fossil energy, wood pellets, power plants, district heating, decentralised energy production, centralised energy production, cost-effectiveness, Helsinki, climate change, health effects, fine particles, biofuels, energy saving.

References

  1. 1.0 1.1 1.2 Halme, Minna; Hukkinen, Janne; Korppi-Tommola, Jouko; Linnanen, Lassi; Liski, Matti; Lovio, Raimo; Lund, Peter; Luukkanen, Jyrki; Nokso-Koivisto, Oskari; Partanen, Jarmo; Wilenius, Markku. Kasvua ja työllisyyttä uudella energiapolitiikalla. Jyväskylän yliopiston julkaisuja 2014. [1]
  2. WWF. Helsingin energiapäätös. Energiansäästö on polttoainevaihtoehdoista paras. WWF, 8.10.2015 http://wwf.fi/mediabank/7784.pdf [2]
  3. Jáchym Judl, Sirkka Koskela, Timo Korpela, Niko Karvosenoja, Anna Häyrinen, Jari Rantsi. Net environmental impacts of low-share wood pellet co-combustion in an existing coal-fired CHP (combined heat and power) production in Helsinki, Finland. Energy 77 (2014) 844-851. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2014.09.068
  4. Sanni Väisänen: Greenhouse gas emissions from peat and biomass-derived fuels, electricity and heat — Estimation of various production chains by using LCA methodology

Related files