Difference between revisions of "Helsinki energy decision 2015"

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(improvements with graphs)
Line 77: Line 77:
 
! Carbon neutral 2050
 
! Carbon neutral 2050
 
! CHP bio
 
! CHP bio
 +
! Distributed and sea
 
|----
 
|----
| Biofuel heat plants
+
|| Biofuel heat plants || {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{yes}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| CHP diesel generators
+
|| CHP diesel generators || {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{yes}}
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Data center heat
+
|| Data center heat || {{no}}|| {{yes}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{yes}}
| {{no|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Deep-drill heat
+
|| Deep-drill heat || {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{yes}}
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Hanasaari
+
|| Hanasaari || {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{no}}|| {{yes}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Household air heat pumps
+
|| Household air heat pumps || {{yes}}|| {{no}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Household air conditioning
+
|| Household air conditioning || {{yes}}|| {{no}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Household geothermal heat
+
|| Household geothermal heat || {{yes}}|| {{no}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Household solar
+
|| Household solar || {{yes}}|| {{no}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Katri Vala cooling
+
|| Katri Vala cooling || {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Katri Vala heat
+
|| Katri Vala heat || {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Kellosaari back-up plant
+
|| Kellosaari back-up plant || {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Kymijoki River's plants
+
|| Kymijoki River's plants || {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Loviisa nuclear heat
+
|| Loviisa nuclear heat || {{no}}|| {{yes}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}
| {{no|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Neste oil refinery heat
+
|| Neste oil refinery heat || {{no}}|| {{yes}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}
| {{no|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Salmisaari A&B
+
|| Salmisaari A&B || {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{no}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{no}}|| {{yes}}
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Salmisaari biofuel renovation
+
|| Salmisaari biofuel renovation || {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{yes}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{yes}}|| {{no}}
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Sea heat pump
+
|| Sea heat pump || {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{yes}}
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Sea heat pump for cooling
+
|| Sea heat pump for cooling || {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{yes}}
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Small-scale wood burning
+
|| Small-scale wood burning || {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Small gas heat plants
+
|| Small gas heat plants || {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Small fuel oil heat plants
+
|| Small fuel oil heat plants || {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Suvilahti power storage
+
|| Suvilahti power storage || {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Vanhakaupunki museum
+
|| Vanhakaupunki museum || {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Vuosaari A
+
|| Vuosaari A || {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Vuosaari B
+
|| Vuosaari B || {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Vuosaari C biofuel
+
|| Vuosaari C biofuel || {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{yes}}|| {{no}}
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
| Wind mills
+
|| Wind mills || {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{no}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}|| {{yes}}
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
| {{no|}}
 
| {{yes|}}
 
 
|----
 
|----
 
|}
 
|}
Line 367: Line 200:
  
 
Current results:
 
Current results:
*[http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=E2jFkLL7QuCFQ0Tt Model run 5.9.2015]
+
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=eSpi8FBqfKbl7NKD Model run 6.9.2015]
 +
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=E2jFkLL7QuCFQ0Tt Model run 5.9.2015]
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=d3bp5VSYGCagxhWl Model run 4.9.2015] Cost calculations are up to profit including external costs.
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=d3bp5VSYGCagxhWl Model run 4.9.2015] Cost calculations are up to profit including external costs.
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=9PE7a4B1mBhUjlcR Model run 29.7.2015] Full run with lots of graphs.
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=9PE7a4B1mBhUjlcR Model run 29.7.2015] Full run with lots of graphs.
Line 379: Line 213:
 
'Biofuel heat plants';Biofuel heat plants;
 
'Biofuel heat plants';Biofuel heat plants;
 
'CHP diesel generators';CHP diesel generators;
 
'CHP diesel generators';CHP diesel generators;
 +
'Data center heat';Data center heat;
 
'Deep-drill heat';Deep-drill heat;
 
'Deep-drill heat';Deep-drill heat;
 
'Hanasaari';Hanasaari;
 
'Hanasaari';Hanasaari;
Line 565: Line 400:
 
x = "Temperature of the day",
 
x = "Temperature of the day",
 
y = "Power output daily average (MW)"
 
y = "Power output daily average (MW)"
 +
)
 +
 +
ebtemp <- eb[eb$Time %in% c("2035") & eb$EnergySavingPolicy == "Energy saving moderate" , ]
 +
ebtemp <- truncateIndex(ebtemp, cols = "Plant", bins = 10)
 +
oggplot(ebtemp, x = "Temperature", fill = "Plant") + facet_wrap(~ PlantPolicy)
 +
labs(
 +
title = "Power plant activity by temperature daily optim \nmoderate energy saving in 2035",
 +
x = "Temperature of the day",
 +
y = "Power plant activity daily average (MW)"
 
)
 
)
  
Line 676: Line 520:
 
tc <- truncateIndex(totalCost[totalCost$EnergySavingPolicy == "Energy saving moderate" , ], cols = "Plant", bins = 10) / 10 # Yearly costs
 
tc <- truncateIndex(totalCost[totalCost$EnergySavingPolicy == "Energy saving moderate" , ], cols = "Plant", bins = 10) / 10 # Yearly costs
  
oggplot(tc[tc, x = "Time", fill = "Cost", binwidth = 10) + facet_wrap( ~ PlantPolicy) +
+
oggplot(tc, x = "Time", fill = "Cost", binwidth = 10) + facet_wrap( ~ PlantPolicy) +
 
labs(
 
labs(
 
y = "Yearly costs (Meur)",
 
y = "Yearly costs (Meur)",
Line 689: Line 533:
  
 
pr <- oapply(totalCost[totalCost$EnergySavingPolicy == "Energy saving moderate" , ], cols = c("Cost"), FUN = sum) / -10 # Values per year
 
pr <- oapply(totalCost[totalCost$EnergySavingPolicy == "Energy saving moderate" , ], cols = c("Cost"), FUN = sum) / -10 # Values per year
oggplot(pr, x = "Time", fill = "Plant", binwidth = 10)+facet_wrap(~ PlantPolicy)
+
oggplot(pr, x = "Time", fill = "Plant", binwidth = 10)+facet_wrap(~ PlantPolicy)+
 +
labs(title = "Total costs with moderate energy saving", y = "Cost Meur")
  
 
oggplot(truncateIndex(EAC, cols = "Plant", bins = 10), x = "PlantPolicy", fill = "Cost")
 
oggplot(truncateIndex(EAC, cols = "Plant", bins = 10), x = "PlantPolicy", fill = "Cost")
 +
BS <- 14
 +
oggplot(EAC[EAC$PlantPolicy == "BAU" , ], x = "EnergySavingPolicy", fill = "Cost")+facet_wrap(~ Plant, scale = "free_y")
 +
oggplot(EAC[EAC$EnergySavingPolicy == "Energy saving moderate" , ], x = "PlantPolicy", fill = "Cost", turnx = TRUE)+
 +
facet_wrap(~ Plant, scale = "free_y") +
 +
labs(title = "Costs and incomes by plant\nmoderate energy saving", y = "Cash flow (Meur)")
  
oggplot(EAC[EAC$PlantPolicy == "BAU" , ], x = "EnergySavingPolicy", fill = "Cost")+facet_wrap(~ Plant, scale = "free_y")
+
oggplot(EAC[EAC$EnergySavingPolicy == "Energy saving moderate" , ], x = "PlantPolicy", fill = "Cost")+facet_wrap(~ Plant)+
oggplot(EAC[EAC$EnergySavingPolicy == "Energy saving moderate" , ], x = "PlantPolicy", fill = "Cost")+facet_wrap(~ Plant, scale = "free_y")
+
facet_wrap(~ Plant, scale = "free_y") +
oggplot(EAC[EAC$EnergySavingPolicy == "Energy saving moderate" , ], x = "PlantPolicy", fill = "Cost")+facet_wrap(~ Plant)
+
labs(title = "Costs and incomes by plant\nmoderate energy saving", y = "Cash flow (Meur)")
  
oggplot(plantParameters[plantParameters$Parameter == "Max" , ], x = "Time", fill = "Plant", binwidth = 10) + facet_grid(PlantPolicy ~ .)
+
oggplot(plantParameters[plantParameters$Parameter == "Max" , ], x = "Time", fill = "Plant", binwidth = 10) + facet_grid(PlantPolicy ~ .)+
 +
labs(title = "Energy production capacity by plant policy", y = "Maximum capacity (MW)")
  
 
</rcode>
 
</rcode>
Line 955: Line 806:
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=NTkgZ2NfWGeQhdMM Model run 4.9.2015] BAU and Helen's bio decision updated.
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=NTkgZ2NfWGeQhdMM Model run 4.9.2015] BAU and Helen's bio decision updated.
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=8hJVMdh8aAy1E0sV Model run 5.9.2015] with technical improvements
 
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=8hJVMdh8aAy1E0sV Model run 5.9.2015] with technical improvements
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=hfYqiOOXvSDvfCPy Model run 6.9.2015] some bugs fixed, no the whole model works
+
* [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=wCUnFoiRLYePywae] some bugs fixed, no the whole model works
  
 
Name intermediates temporarily removed so than nobody accidentally runs a version that does not store objects.  
 
Name intermediates temporarily removed so than nobody accidentally runs a version that does not store objects.  

Revision as of 20:15, 6 September 2015

Main message:
Question:

This website contains an on-going impact assessment to support the decision making on how energy should be produced in Helsinki in the future. The City of Helsinki is making a major decision about power plants in 2015, and it will affect the energy supply in Helsinki for decades. Political discussion is active, but quantitative, analytical assessments are scarce, especially those that are also looking at health and climate impacts. How to continuously supply energy for the heating and electricity needs of Helsinki in all circumstances all year round for the next fifty years? An energy balance assessment is needed with several output indicators, such as cost, climate emissions, health, supply security, and domestic growth. How can decentralised energy supply and energy efficiency renovations improve the situation? The latter question was asked by the city council in spring 2015, and an other assessment (coordinated by the City of Helsinki and Helen energy company) is ongoing to also answer that question by September 2015.

Answer:

The National Institute of Health and Welfare THL is performing an open assessment in Opasnet web-workspace during summer 2015. We are developing an assessment model (called Sofia) to estimate feasibility and impacts of several suggested solutions to the Helsinki energy decision. Sofia is an energy balance model that optimises the costs of energy production in a way that the district heat demand is met every day with appropriate supply from the power plants in Helsinki. The situation is followed from 1985 to 2065. Sofia is looking also at other heat and electricity consumption, but not traffic or industry. Based on the balanced energy supply, Sofia estimates the fuel and other costs as well as greenhouse gas and fine particle emissions for power plants and other energy processes. The model can handle several scenarios that can be compared with each other to see the impacts of different actions (such as building renovations or new power plants) on the overall situation.

Sofia is able to calculate the building stock and its energy use based on average energy intensity per floor area and outdoor temperature. It also finds the optimal use of existing power plants for different situations for the whole timespan of the assessment. The model suggests how the energy demand could be covered in the future when different impacts are considered. Production costs are optimised, but also other criteria could be used. Currently, Sofia suggests the use of Vuosaari A&B gas plant as the main energy source of energy, but if Vuosaari C biofuel plant were built, the importance of Vuosaari A&B would diminish. Such guidance is naturally based on the data that Sofia currently has, and her recommendations are likely to change when more and more precise data is collected. According to the principles of open assessment, we invite anybody who is interested in Helsinki's energy decision to participate and browse through the pages of this assessment. All data and all parts of the model are openly available in machine-readable format. All comments, criticism, and update suggestions are welcome.


Scope

Question

Helsinki must be able to provide its residents with reliable, climate-friendly and cost-effective district heating and electricity every day all year round for the decades to come. When this energy balance is assessed, what options does Helsinki have for main energy solutions? What kind of impacts do these options have in terms of

  • climate mitigation,
  • stability (fuel availability etc),
  • cost to the city and citizens,
  • environment,
  • biofuel use,
  • national energy balance,
  • domestic source,
  • health?[1]

Intended use and users

Helsinki City Council will make a major decision in autumn 2015 about renovating old power plants, building a new one, or some other option replacing the need of the old power plants. Therefore, the City Council is the major user of the assessment. There are also secondary uses, such as informing national energy discussion and demonstrating the usefulness of an open combined energy balance and building model.



Decisions and scenarios

Main article: Helsinki energy decision options 2015

The two options in the official decision preparation are Hanasaari shutdown and Vuosaari, and Hanasaari 40 bio and Salmisaari 40 bio. However, also other options have been suggested, and also they are evaluated at least superficially.

  1. BAU: Only small, essential renovations are made to current power plants to stay within new emission limits.
  2. Vuosaari C: A new power plant is built in Vuosaari with the capacity to burn 100 % wood-based fuel or any combination of wood-based fuels and coal.
  3. Hanasaari shutdown: The Hanasaari powerplant is shut down, demolished and apartment buildings are built in its place.
  4. Hanasaari 40 bio: The Hanasaari power plant is renovated to burn 40% wood-based fuels and 60% coal.
  5. Salmisaari 40 bio: The Salmisaari power plants are renovated to burn 40% wood-based fuels and 60% coal.
  6. Biofueled heat production units: Salmisaari oilfueled heat plant is shut down and new biofuel burning heat plants are built in Salmisaari and Vuorsaari.
  7. Loviisa nuclear CHP: A third nuclear power plant is built in Loviisa and the heat is used for district heating in Helsinki.
  8. Neste excess heat: The excess heat from the Neste's oil refinery in Porvoo is used for district heating in Helsinki.
  9. Decentralised energy production: The amount of decentralised energy production is increased as much as possible. Practically this means building a lot more solar panels, geothermal power, small-scale wood burning and wind mills around Helsinki.
  10. Large heat pumps: Big heat pumps are installed to draw heat from the Baltic sea or deep from the ground to produce district heating.
  11. Energy saving: With huge energy saving campaigns and by renovating buildings to be more energy efficient the amount of required energy is decreased significantly.
BAU Process heat Helen proposition Zero investment Carbon neutral 2050 CHP bio Distributed and sea
Biofuel heat plants No No Yes No No No No
CHP diesel generators No No No No No No Yes
Data center heat No Yes No No No No Yes
Deep-drill heat No No No No No No Yes
Hanasaari Yes Yes No Yes No No No
Household air heat pumps Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Household air conditioning Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Household geothermal heat Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Household solar Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Katri Vala cooling Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Katri Vala heat Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Kellosaari back-up plant Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Kymijoki River's plants Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Loviisa nuclear heat No Yes No No No No No
Neste oil refinery heat No Yes No No No No No
Salmisaari A&B Yes Yes No Yes Yes No Yes
Salmisaari biofuel renovation No No Yes No No Yes No
Sea heat pump No No No No No No Yes
Sea heat pump for cooling No No No No No No Yes
Small-scale wood burning No No No No No No No
Small gas heat plants Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Small fuel oil heat plants Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Suvilahti power storage Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Vanhakaupunki museum Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Vuosaari A Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Vuosaari B Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Vuosaari C biofuel No No No No No Yes No
Wind mills No No No No Yes Yes Yes



There are two policies that are currently implemented in the model. Each has several options:

  • Energy saving policy: take several actions that reduce the energy demand of the building stock.
    • BAU: business as usual, e.g. renovate 1 % of buildings per year if age > 30 a.
    • Energy saving moderate: renovate 2 %/a
    • Energy saving total: renovate 4 %/a, in addition increase the share of passive buildings up by 25 %-units since 2025, and add the share of sheath reform renovations up by 25 %-units.
  • Plant policy: Choose an optimal selection of power plant infrastructure
    • BAU: Old plants remain as planned but Vuosaari C biofuel, Loviisa nuclear heat, and Neste oil refinery heat are not built.
    • Biofuels and process heat: Old plants remain as planned. In addition, Vuosaari C biofuel, Loviisa nuclear heat, and Neste oil refinery heat are built.

←--#: . If you have ideas about options that should be modelled, please just contact us and we'll try and adjust the model accordingly. --Jouni (talk) 08:54, 15 July 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: defence)

Timing

The assessment started in May 2015. First draft results are expected before midsummer 2015. Final results should be available well before the City Council makes the decision in autumn, which means that results should exist by September 15th, 2015. There will be a public meeting to present the near-final results and discuss their implications. The meeting is held in THL, Helsinki on 31st August 2015 at noon.

Answer

Current results:

Choose power plants you want to build (or keep running if they already exist) (the default selection is Helen's bio). This will become PlantPolicy: Custom.:
Biofuel heat plants
CHP diesel generators
Data center heat
Deep-drill heat
Hanasaari
Household air heat pumps
Household air conditioning
Household geothermal heat
Katri Vala cooling
Katri Vala heat
Kellosaari back-up plant
Loviisa nuclear heat
Neste oil refinery heat
Salmisaari A&B
Salmisaari biofuel renovation
Sea heat pump
Sea heat pump for cooling
Small gas heat plants
Small fuel oil heat plants
Vuosaari A
Vuosaari B
Vuosaari C biofuel

Choose power plants to be renovated (PlantPolicy: Custom):
Hanasaari biofuel renovation

+ Show code

Results

Fuelprices.png

Development of prices of power plant fuels over time.

Conclusions

Rationale

Causal diagram for the assessment.

Stakeholders

The impacts are assessed and valued from the point of view of the following stakeholders:

  • The city of Helsinki
  • Helen Oy energy company
  • A citizen of Helsinki
  • Finland
  • Global view

Dependencies

List of key pages used in model


Other models used in the Helsinki assessment (but are not in the core of this assessment)


Analyses

  • Cost-benefit analysis of different options. Costs considered: capital and operational costs of energy production, climate costs (CO2e emissions converted to euros), health (DALYs converted to euros).
  • Total capacity availability and feasibility (applies especially to decentralised option).
  • Temporal heat and power demand and supply (hourly resolution).

Indices

  • Temporal: Time (5-year observation periods)
  • Temperature (3-degree-Celsius intervals for ambient daily average temperatures. It is assumed that heating is not needed above 17 C and cooling is not needed below 24 C. Hot water need is independent of ambient temperature.
  • Decisions: EnergySavingPolicy contains options that reduce the energy need of the building stock and other consumption. PlantPolicy contains options about which energy plants to build (or demolish).
  • Stakeholder (Citizen, City, Helen, Finland)
  • Spatial: City area (summed up after energy need)
  • Health: Response (any disease that is linked to Exposure agents emitted)
  • Emission, exposure: Pollutant or Exposure agent (any agent that is emitted by energy production)
  • Energy production: Burner (type of burner used in the facility where energy is produced), Fuel (type of fuel used in energy production), Heating (type of heating in the building).
  • Buildings: Building [use type], Heating, Constructed, City area, Renovation, Efficiency.

Calculations

Name intermediates temporarily removed so than nobody accidentally runs a version that does not store objects.

+ Show code

DALY shortcut

This code creates a ready-made DALYs estimate for 1 ug/m^3 PM2.5. It is much quicker to calculate health impacts of case-specific emissions with this ovariable, if there is a large emissions ovariable and if the exposure is such that proportionality can be assumed in health impacts.

+ Show code

See also

Helsinki energy decision 2015
In English
Assessment Main page | Helsinki energy decision options 2015
Helsinki data Building stock in Helsinki | Helsinki energy production | Helsinki energy consumption | Energy use of buildings | Emission factors for burning processes | Prices of fuels in heat production | External cost
Models Building model | Energy balance | Health impact assessment | Economic impacts
Related assessments Climate change policies in Helsinki | Climate change policies and health in Kuopio | Climate change policies in Basel
In Finnish
Yhteenveto Helsingin energiapäätös 2015 | Helsingin energiapäätöksen vaihtoehdot 2015 | Helsingin energiapäätökseen liittyviä arvoja | Helsingin energiapäätös 2015.pptx

toimenpiteet Helsingin kaupungin ympäristökeskuksen julkaisuja 7/2014 [10]←--#: . Kustannus- ja päästövähenemätiedot pitäisi tästä kerätä taulukkoon. --Jouni (talk) 13:29, 19 June 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: defence)

Keywords

Energy, renewable energy, nuclear energy, fossil energy, wood pellets, power plants, district heating, decentralised energy production, centralised energy production, cost-effectiveness

References

  1. 1.0 1.1 1.2 Halme, Minna; Hukkinen, Janne; Korppi-Tommola, Jouko; Linnanen, Lassi; Liski, Matti; Lovio, Raimo; Lund, Peter; Luukkanen, Jyrki; Nokso-Koivisto, Oskari; Partanen, Jarmo; Wilenius, Markku. Kasvua ja työllisyyttä uudella energiapolitiikalla. Jyväskylän yliopiston julkaisuja 2014. [1]
  2. Jáchym Judl, Sirkka Koskela, Timo Korpela, Niko Karvosenoja, Anna Häyrinen, Jari Rantsi. Net environmental impacts of low-share wood pellet co-combustion in an existing coal-fired CHP (combined heat and power) production in Helsinki, Finland. Energy 77 (2014) 844-851. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2014.09.068
  3. Sanni Väisänen: Greenhouse gas emissions from peat and biomass-derived fuels, electricity and heat — Estimation of various production chains by using LCA methodology

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