Heat exposure in Europe

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Scope

What is the location-specific daily heat exposure in Europe?

Heat exposure is defined as the location-specific daily maximum apparent temperature (AT) (i.e. humidity-adjusted temperature) above an area-specific threshold value.

Definition

Data

Dependencies

Unit

°C

Formula

Heat exposure = Maximum daily apparent temperature - apparent temperature threshold

Apparent temperature (AT) = -2.653 + 0.994 Temp + 0.0153 (Dew)2
*Temp = air temperature
*Dew = dew point temperature


Result

Average daily maximum apparent temperature, no. of days when temperature threshold is exceeded, the average exceedance on these days, and the heat sum (95% confidence limits) in April-September averaged over all large metropolitan areas in Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, and United Kingdom. Temperature threshold: 23.3°C (22.5-24.0).

Climate scenario & year Averge daily max AT (°C) No. days above threshold Average threshold exceedance (°C) Heat sum (°C)
2010 16.9 27 (23-32) 4.0 (4.0-4.2) 107 (90-130)
A1B
2020 17.7 31 (27-34) 4.8 (4.7-5.1) 147 (127-172)
2030 19.2 43 (38-49) 4.6 (4.4-4.7) 194 (166-230)
2050 20.5 63 (57-70) 5.2 (5.0-5.4) 323 (281-375)
B1
2020 17.9 32 (28-37) 4.6 (4.5-4.7) 146 (126-174)
2030 17.5 35 (32-40) 5.2 (5.1-5.4) 182 (159-212)
2050 18.1 27 (23-32) 4.5 (4.5-4.5) 120 (102-143)

Average daily maximum apparent temperature, no. of days when temperature threshold is exceeded, the average exceedance on these days, and the heat sum (95% confidence limits) in April-September averaged over all large metropolitan areas in Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain. Temperature threshold: 29.4°C (95% CI 25.7-32.4).

Climate scenario & year Averge daily max AT (°C) No. days above threshold Average threshold exceedance (°C) Heat sum (°C)
2010 24.2 51 (29-79) 4.5 (3.5-5.8) 222 (103-458)
A1B
2020 24.4 50 (31-80) 4.6 (3.6-5.8) 227 (109-465)
2030 25.7 72 (43-101) 4.5 (3.4-6.3) 312 (145-631)
2050 26.5 75 (48-103) 5.1 (3.9-6.8) 373 (191-702)
B1
2020 25.1 58 (33-88) 4.2 (3.2-5.7) 238 (106-505)
2030 25.3 65 (39-94) 4.6 (3.5-6.2) 288 (136-580)
2050 25.8 66 (44-92) 5.2 (4.1-6.8) 340 (177-630)

The results are based on air temperature and dew point data modelled with Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Regional Model (REMO). Geographical location of large cities was determined based on EMEP grid level data on total population. If the population density within a grid cell surpassed 200 per square kilometre (i.e. 500000 within a 50 km x 50 km grid cell), the grid cell was considered to include a densely populated metropolitan area.

See also

References