Difference between revisions of "Heat exposure in Europe"

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[[Category:Exposures]]
 
[[Category:Exposures]]
 
[[Category:Heat]]
 
[[Category:Heat]]
 +
[[Category:Climate change]]
 
[[Category:Intarese]]
 
[[Category:Intarese]]
 
{{variable|moderator=Virpi Kollanus}}
 
{{variable|moderator=Virpi Kollanus}}
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*[[Urban heat island effect in Europe]]
 
*[[Urban heat island effect in Europe]]
 
*[[European climate scenarios]]
 
*[[European climate scenarios]]
*Apparent temperature threshold for the [[ERF for heat exposure and mortality]]:
+
*[[ERF for heat exposure and mortality]]
**Mediterranean region: 29.4 (95% Cl 25.7-32.4)
 
**North-continental region: 23.3 (95% Cl 22.5-24.0)
 
  
 
=== Unit ===
 
=== Unit ===
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=== Formula ===
 
=== Formula ===
  
  Heat exposure = Maximum daily apparent temperature - apparent temperature threshold
+
  '''Heat exposure = Maximum daily apparent temperature - apparent temperature threshold
 
   
 
   
 
  Apparent temperature (AT) = -2.653 + 0.994 Temp + 0.0153 (Dew)<sup>2</sup>
 
  Apparent temperature (AT) = -2.653 + 0.994 Temp + 0.0153 (Dew)<sup>2</sup>
 
  *Temp = air temperature
 
  *Temp = air temperature
 
  *Dew = dew point temperature
 
  *Dew = dew point temperature
 
  
 
== Result ==
 
== Result ==
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Exposure estimates are based on air temperature and dew point data modelled with Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Regional Model (REMO). Geographical location of large cities was determined based on EMEP grid level data on total population. If the population density within a grid cell surpassed 200 per square kilometre (i.e. 500000 within a 50 km x 50 km grid cell), the grid cell was considered to include a densely populated metropolitan area. These estimates were used in the assessment [[Health impacts of urban heat island mitigation in Europe]].
 
Exposure estimates are based on air temperature and dew point data modelled with Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Regional Model (REMO). Geographical location of large cities was determined based on EMEP grid level data on total population. If the population density within a grid cell surpassed 200 per square kilometre (i.e. 500000 within a 50 km x 50 km grid cell), the grid cell was considered to include a densely populated metropolitan area. These estimates were used in the assessment [[Health impacts of urban heat island mitigation in Europe]].
  
'''''Average daily maximum apparent temperature, no. of days when temperature threshold is exceeded, the average exceedance on these days, and the heat sum (95% confidence limits) in April-September averaged over all large metropolitan areas in Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, and United Kingdom. Temperature threshold: 23.3°C (22.5-24.0).
+
'''''Average daily maximum apparent temperature, no. of days when temperature threshold is exceeded, the average exceedance on these days, and the heat sum (95% confidence limits) in April-September averaged over all large metropolitan areas  
  
 
{| {{prettytable}}
 
{| {{prettytable}}
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| '''Average threshold exceedance (°C)
 
| '''Average threshold exceedance (°C)
 
| '''Heat sum (°C)
 
| '''Heat sum (°C)
 +
|----
 +
| '''''North continental region region
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 
|----
 
|----
 
| 2010
 
| 2010
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| 4.0 (4.0-4.2)
 
| 4.0 (4.0-4.2)
 
| 107 (90-130)
 
| 107 (90-130)
 +
 
|----
 
|----
| '''A1B
+
| A1B 2050
|
 
|
 
|
 
|
 
|----
 
| 2020
 
| 17.7
 
| 31 (27-34)
 
| 4.8 (4.7-5.1)
 
| 147 (127-172)
 
|----
 
| 2030
 
| 19.2
 
| 43 (38-49)
 
| 4.6 (4.4-4.7)
 
| 194 (166-230)
 
|----
 
| 2050
 
 
| 20.5
 
| 20.5
 
| 63 (57-70)
 
| 63 (57-70)
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| 323 (281-375)
 
| 323 (281-375)
 
|----
 
|----
| '''B1
+
| B1 2050
|
 
|
 
|
 
|
 
|----
 
| 2020
 
| 17.9
 
| 32 (28-37)
 
| 4.6 (4.5-4.7)
 
| 146 (126-174)
 
|----
 
| 2030
 
| 17.5
 
| 35 (32-40)
 
| 5.2 (5.1-5.4)
 
| 182 (159-212)
 
|----
 
| 2050
 
 
| 18.1
 
| 18.1
 
| 27 (23-32)
 
| 27 (23-32)
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| 120 (102-143)
 
| 120 (102-143)
 
|----
 
|----
|}
+
| '''''Mediterranean region
 
+
|  
'''''Average daily maximum apparent temperature, no. of days when temperature threshold is exceeded, the average exceedance on these days, and the heat sum (95% confidence limits) in April-September averaged over all large metropolitan areas in Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain. Temperature threshold: 29.4°C (95% CI 25.7-32.4).
+
|  
 
+
|  
{| {{prettytable}}
+
|  
| '''Climate scenario &amp; year
 
| '''Averge daily max AT (°C)
 
| '''No. days above threshold
 
| '''Average threshold exceedance (°C)
 
| '''Heat sum (°C)
 
 
|----
 
|----
 
| 2010
 
| 2010
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| 222 (103-458)
 
| 222 (103-458)
 
|----
 
|----
| '''A1B
+
| A1B 2050
|
 
|
 
|
 
|
 
|----
 
| 2020
 
| 24.4
 
| 50 (31-80)
 
| 4.6 (3.6-5.8)
 
| 227 (109-465)
 
|----
 
| 2030
 
| 25.7
 
| 72 (43-101)
 
| 4.5 (3.4-6.3)
 
| 312 (145-631)
 
|----
 
| 2050
 
 
| 26.5
 
| 26.5
 
| 75 (48-103)
 
| 75 (48-103)
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| 373 (191-702)
 
| 373 (191-702)
 
|----
 
|----
| '''B1
+
| B1 2050
|
 
|
 
|
 
|
 
|----
 
| 2020
 
| 25.1
 
| 58 (33-88)
 
| 4.2 (3.2-5.7)
 
| 238 (106-505)
 
|----
 
| 2030
 
| 25.3
 
| 65 (39-94)
 
| 4.6 (3.5-6.2)
 
| 288 (136-580)
 
|----
 
| 2050
 
 
| 25.8
 
| 25.8
 
| 66 (44-92)
 
| 66 (44-92)
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|----
 
|----
 
|}
 
|}
 +
North-continental region:
 +
*Includes Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, and United Kingdom.
 +
*Temperature threshold: 23.3°C (22.5-24.0)
 +
Mediterranean region:
 +
*Includes Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain.
 +
*Temperature threshold: 29.4°C (95% CI 25.7-32.4)
  
 
==See also==
 
==See also==

Latest revision as of 17:41, 23 March 2011



Scope

What is the location-specific daily heat exposure in Europe?

Heat exposure is defined as the location-specific daily maximum apparent temperature (AT) (i.e. humidity-adjusted temperature) above an area-specific threshold value.

Definition

Data

Dependencies

Unit

°C

Formula

Heat exposure = Maximum daily apparent temperature - apparent temperature threshold

Apparent temperature (AT) = -2.653 + 0.994 Temp + 0.0153 (Dew)2
*Temp = air temperature
*Dew = dew point temperature

Result

Heat exposure estimates for densely populated metropolitan areas in Europe

Exposure estimates are based on air temperature and dew point data modelled with Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Regional Model (REMO). Geographical location of large cities was determined based on EMEP grid level data on total population. If the population density within a grid cell surpassed 200 per square kilometre (i.e. 500000 within a 50 km x 50 km grid cell), the grid cell was considered to include a densely populated metropolitan area. These estimates were used in the assessment Health impacts of urban heat island mitigation in Europe.

Average daily maximum apparent temperature, no. of days when temperature threshold is exceeded, the average exceedance on these days, and the heat sum (95% confidence limits) in April-September averaged over all large metropolitan areas

Climate scenario & year Averge daily max AT (°C) No. days above threshold Average threshold exceedance (°C) Heat sum (°C)
North continental region region
2010 16.9 27 (23-32) 4.0 (4.0-4.2) 107 (90-130)
A1B 2050 20.5 63 (57-70) 5.2 (5.0-5.4) 323 (281-375)
B1 2050 18.1 27 (23-32) 4.5 (4.5-4.5) 120 (102-143)
Mediterranean region
2010 24.2 51 (29-79) 4.5 (3.5-5.8) 222 (103-458)
A1B 2050 26.5 75 (48-103) 5.1 (3.9-6.8) 373 (191-702)
B1 2050 25.8 66 (44-92) 5.2 (4.1-6.8) 340 (177-630)

North-continental region:

  • Includes Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, and United Kingdom.
  • Temperature threshold: 23.3°C (22.5-24.0)

Mediterranean region:

  • Includes Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain.
  • Temperature threshold: 29.4°C (95% CI 25.7-32.4)

See also

References