Difference between revisions of "Heat exposure in Europe"

From Opasnet
Jump to: navigation, search
m (Result)
m (Dependencies)
Line 20: Line 20:
 
*[[Urban heat island effect in Europe]]
 
*[[Urban heat island effect in Europe]]
 
*[[European climate scenarios]]
 
*[[European climate scenarios]]
*Apparent temperature threshold for the [[ERF for heat exposure and mortality]]:
+
*[[ERF for heat exposure and mortality]]
**Mediterranean region: 29.4 (95% Cl 25.7-32.4)
 
**North-continental region: 23.3 (95% Cl 22.5-24.0)
 
  
 
=== Unit ===
 
=== Unit ===

Revision as of 14:48, 23 March 2011



Scope

What is the location-specific daily heat exposure in Europe?

Heat exposure is defined as the location-specific daily maximum apparent temperature (AT) (i.e. humidity-adjusted temperature) above an area-specific threshold value.

Definition

Data

Dependencies

Unit

°C

Formula

Heat exposure = Maximum daily apparent temperature - apparent temperature threshold

Apparent temperature (AT) = -2.653 + 0.994 Temp + 0.0153 (Dew)2
*Temp = air temperature
*Dew = dew point temperature

Result

Heat exposure estimates for densely populated metropolitan areas in Europe

Exposure estimates are based on air temperature and dew point data modelled with Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Regional Model (REMO). Geographical location of large cities was determined based on EMEP grid level data on total population. If the population density within a grid cell surpassed 200 per square kilometre (i.e. 500000 within a 50 km x 50 km grid cell), the grid cell was considered to include a densely populated metropolitan area. These estimates were used in the assessment Health impacts of urban heat island mitigation in Europe.

Average daily maximum apparent temperature, no. of days when temperature threshold is exceeded, the average exceedance on these days, and the heat sum (95% confidence limits) in April-September averaged over all large metropolitan areas

Climate scenario & year Averge daily max AT (°C) No. days above threshold Average threshold exceedance (°C) Heat sum (°C)
North continental region region
2010 16.9 27 (23-32) 4.0 (4.0-4.2) 107 (90-130)
A1B
2020 17.7 31 (27-34) 4.8 (4.7-5.1) 147 (127-172)
2030 19.2 43 (38-49) 4.6 (4.4-4.7) 194 (166-230)
2050 20.5 63 (57-70) 5.2 (5.0-5.4) 323 (281-375)
B1
2020 17.9 32 (28-37) 4.6 (4.5-4.7) 146 (126-174)
2030 17.5 35 (32-40) 5.2 (5.1-5.4) 182 (159-212)
2050 18.1 27 (23-32) 4.5 (4.5-4.5) 120 (102-143)
Mediterranean region
2010 24.2 51 (29-79) 4.5 (3.5-5.8) 222 (103-458)
A1B
2020 24.4 50 (31-80) 4.6 (3.6-5.8) 227 (109-465)
2030 25.7 72 (43-101) 4.5 (3.4-6.3) 312 (145-631)
2050 26.5 75 (48-103) 5.1 (3.9-6.8) 373 (191-702)
B1
2020 25.1 58 (33-88) 4.2 (3.2-5.7) 238 (106-505)
2030 25.3 65 (39-94) 4.6 (3.5-6.2) 288 (136-580)
2050 25.8 66 (44-92) 5.2 (4.1-6.8) 340 (177-630)

North-continental region:

  • Includes Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, and United Kingdom.
  • Temperature threshold: 23.3°C (22.5-24.0)

Mediterranean region:

  • Includes Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain.
  • Temperature threshold: 29.4°C (95% CI 25.7-32.4)

See also

References