United States presidential election, 2016

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Question

Was there fraud in the US presidential elections in 2016? Specifically, was there fraud in three states that went to Trump: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania?

The question was raised by the journal New York on 22nd Nov 2016. Gabriel Sherman: Experts Urge Clinton Campaign to Challenge Election Results in 3 Swing States. [1] Yle

Answer

All voting places in Wisconsin are using paper ballots and optical reading system. Therefore, it was a journalist's misunderstaanding that electronic voting systems would have given 7 % less votes for Clinton that other systems in Michigan. The point of this discussion was that Clinton should require that some paper ballots are counted by hand just to be sure, and this should be a routine in all elections. But, surprisingly enough, it is not.

Infecting counting machines with malware is not at all impossible. If a skillful attacker wants to take a risk, it can be done. Whether there was fraud or not, the current evidence does not tell. It could be possible to look at individual precincts to search for statistical anomalies. Reports about such activity were found when writing this page.

Rationale

Read J Alex Halderman's blog about the issue from an expert who started this discussion. [2]

• In Michigan, there is doubt about hacking claim [3].
• Why risk-limiting audits should be performed [4]

There are different voting systems in different states[5]. However, the classification seems fuzzy and does not clarify what kind of systems actually are in use.

Pre-election discussion about potential problems with the paperless Pennsylvania system.[6]

How are votes counted [7]?

General issues about the election[8].

Filing a recount

According to one of the activists, the deadline in Wisconsin to file for a recount is Friday (25th Nov); in Pennsylvania, it’s Monday (28th Nov); and Michigan is next Wednesday (30th Nov). Jill Stein did file for a recount. Data was not found about whether only a candidate or any citizen can file for a recount. In any case, they must pay for it so there must be a good reason for that.

Data

Milwaukee data and Wisconsin equipment

See also [9] [10].

Wisconsin is the critical state, as there are different equipment used in different municipalities. This data is available here. The presidential election data seems to be available only by county. The Milwaukee county data is only available as a pdf file[11] but it could be scraped from there when opened in Adobe reader (not web browser) and stored as txt file. Similarly, County of Dane data can be scraped from [12].

Overall state results by county

Data from Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Data is also avalable here but not used from this source.

	Michigan		Wisconsin		Pennsylvania
Candidate	Votes	Percent	Votes	Percent	Votes	Percent
Donald Trump (GOP)	2279805	47.60%	1409467	47.90%	2912941	48.80%
Hillary Clinton (Dem)	2268193	47.30%	1382210	46.90%	2844705	47.60%
Gary Johnson (Lib)	173057	3.60%	106442	3.60%	142653	2.40%
Jill Stein (Grn)	50700	1.10%	30980	1.10%	48912	0.80%
Other	19162	0.40%	15521	0.50%	20896	0.40%
	100% of precincts reporting (4,830 of 4,830)		100% of precincts reporting (3,620 of 3,620)		99.8% of precincts reporting (9,136 of 9,158)

100% of precincts reporting (4,830 of 4,830)

Counties and results in Wisconsin, with links to some precinct-level results.[13]

Show details

County-level results from three swing states(fraction, #) Obs State County Calculated Clinton Trump Johnson Stein 2016 Margin Population 1 Wisconsin Milwaukee 100% in 0.664 0.29 0.031 0.01 D +37 953401 2 Wisconsin Dane 100% in 0.714 0.234 0.035 0.014 D +48 502984 3 Wisconsin Waukesha 100% in 0.335 0.616 0.038 0.007 R +28 392511 4 Wisconsin Brown 100% in 0.419 0.527 0.039 0.011 R +11 252698 5 Wisconsin Racine 100% in 0.454 0.498 0.035 0.009 R +4 195039 6 Wisconsin Outagamie 100% in 0.401 0.542 0.041 0.01 R +14 179139 7 Wisconsin Winnebago 100% in 0.431 0.506 0.044 0.012 R +7 168413 8 Wisconsin Kenosha 100% in 0.472 0.475 0.036 0.011 R +0 167268 9 Wisconsin Rock 100% in 0.524 0.42 0.038 0.012 D +10 160465 10 Wisconsin Marathon 100% in 0.385 0.567 0.034 0.009 R +18 134886 11 Wisconsin Washington 100% in 0.274 0.678 0.036 0.007 R +40 132526 12 Wisconsin La Crosse 100% in 0.516 0.42 0.043 0.015 D +10 116470 13 Wisconsin Sheboygan 100% in 0.388 0.555 0.04 0.009 R +17 115168 14 Wisconsin Walworth 100% in 0.37 0.57 0.042 0.012 R +20 102920 15 Wisconsin Fond Du Lac 100% in 0.34 0.608 0.037 0.009 R +27 101709 16 Wisconsin Eau Claire 100% in 0.504 0.431 0.046 0.013 D +7 100607 17 Wisconsin Dodge 100% in 0.326 0.622 0.036 0.008 R +30 88589 18 Wisconsin Ozaukee 100% in 0.378 0.571 0.04 0.007 R +19 86930 19 Wisconsin St. Croix 100% in 0.374 0.558 0.05 0.011 R +18 85442 20 Wisconsin Jefferson 100% in 0.391 0.553 0.039 0.011 R +16 84201 21 Wisconsin Manitowoc 100% in 0.364 0.581 0.039 0.009 R +22 80805 22 Wisconsin Wood 100% in 0.377 0.57 0.036 0.01 R +19 74261 23 Wisconsin Portage 100% in 0.486 0.454 0.039 0.015 D +3 70337 24 Wisconsin Chippewa 100% in 0.377 0.569 0.038 0.008 R +19 63051 25 Wisconsin Sauk 100% in 0.474 0.469 0.036 0.014 D +1 62681 26 Wisconsin Columbia 100% in 0.462 0.483 0.037 0.012 R +2 56659 27 Wisconsin Waupaca 100% in 0.326 0.628 0.031 0.009 R +30 52212 28 Wisconsin Grant 100% in 0.418 0.513 0.049 0.013 R +10 51272 29 Wisconsin Calumet 100% in 0.365 0.581 0.04 0.008 R +22 49502 30 Wisconsin Barron 100% in 0.35 0.604 0.032 0.008 R +25 45718 31 Wisconsin Monroe 100% in 0.36 0.585 0.036 0.012 R +22 45116 32 Wisconsin Dunn 100% in 0.41 0.521 0.05 0.013 R +11 44045 33 Wisconsin Douglas 100% in 0.511 0.435 0.033 0.015 D +8 43901 34 Wisconsin Polk 100% in 0.334 0.611 0.039 0.01 R +28 43698 35 Wisconsin Shawano 100% in 0.307 0.647 0.031 0.008 R +34 41697 36 Wisconsin Marinette 100% in 0.312 0.65 0.025 0.007 R +34 41488 37 Wisconsin Pierce 100% in 0.397 0.534 0.05 0.013 R +14 40859 38 Wisconsin Oconto 100% in 0.295 0.665 0.029 0.006 R +37 37483 39 Wisconsin Green 100% in 0.485 0.463 0.037 0.01 D +2 36971 40 Wisconsin Oneida 100% in 0.389 0.56 0.036 0.009 R +17 35754 41 Wisconsin Clark 100% in 0.312 0.638 0.033 0.008 R +33 34575 42 Wisconsin Vernon 100% in 0.447 0.493 0.031 0.021 R +5 30124 43 Wisconsin Trempealeau 100% in 0.416 0.543 0.027 0.008 R +13 29274 44 Wisconsin Lincoln 100% in 0.369 0.577 0.041 0.008 R +21 28566 45 Wisconsin Door 100% in 0.461 0.493 0.032 0.008 R +3 27789 46 Wisconsin Juneau 100% in 0.349 0.612 0.024 0.009 R +26 26607 47 Wisconsin Waushara 100% in 0.318 0.641 0.026 0.008 R +32 24409 48 Wisconsin Iowa 100% in 0.55 0.397 0.038 0.009 D +15 23754 49 Wisconsin Vilas 100% in 0.354 0.607 0.025 0.009 R +25 21368 50 Wisconsin Adams 100% in 0.374 0.592 0.02 0.008 R +22 20604 51 Wisconsin Taylor 100% in 0.255 0.7 0.03 0.007 R +45 20596 52 Wisconsin Kewaunee 100% in 0.337 0.616 0.032 0.007 R +28 20545 53 Wisconsin Jackson 100% in 0.415 0.533 0.033 0.011 R +12 20543 54 Wisconsin Langlade 100% in 0.323 0.638 0.028 0.007 R +31 19706 55 Wisconsin Green Lake 100% in 0.29 0.667 0.029 0.008 R +38 19001 56 Wisconsin Richland 100% in 0.449 0.505 0.028 0.013 R +6 17842 57 Wisconsin Lafayette 100% in 0.433 0.523 0.031 0.006 R +9 16847 58 Wisconsin Crawford 100% in 0.446 0.501 0.036 0.01 R +5 16525 59 Wisconsin Sawyer 100% in 0.366 0.595 0.024 0.01 R +23 16516 60 Wisconsin Ashland 100% in 0.522 0.433 0.023 0.018 D +9 16065 61 Wisconsin Washburn 100% in 0.362 0.597 0.029 0.008 R +23 15785 62 Wisconsin Burnett 100% in 0.338 0.621 0.026 0.008 R +28 15387 63 Wisconsin Marquette 100% in 0.359 0.603 0.024 0.006 R +24 15224 64 Wisconsin Bayfield 100% in 0.522 0.435 0.02 0.019 D +9 15064 65 Wisconsin Rusk 100% in 0.309 0.649 0.027 0.008 R +34 14468 66 Wisconsin Price 100% in 0.353 0.603 0.026 0.011 R +25 13888 67 Wisconsin Buffalo 100% in 0.366 0.585 0.031 0.011 R +22 13374 68 Wisconsin Forest 100% in 0.351 0.618 0.018 0.008 R +27 9198 69 Wisconsin Pepin 100% in 0.359 0.595 0.031 0.009 R +24 7390 70 Wisconsin Iron 100% in 0.366 0.601 0.021 0.009 R +23 5927 71 Wisconsin Florence 100% in 0.251 0.716 0.024 0.006 R +46 4473 72 Wisconsin Menominee 100% in 0.784 0.21 0 0.005 D +57 4382 73 Michigan Wayne 100% in 0.668 0.295 0.024 0.01 D +37 1790078 74 Michigan Oakland 100% in 0.517 0.436 0.035 0.01 D +8 1220798 75 Michigan Macomb 100% in 0.421 0.536 0.031 0.009 R +12 849344 76 Michigan Kent 100% in 0.452 0.483 0.046 0.013 R +3 615381 77 Michigan Genesee 100% in 0.524 0.429 0.032 0.011 D +9 418654 78 Michigan Washtenaw 100% in 0.684 0.269 0.031 0.013 D +42 351454 79 Michigan Ingham 100% in 0.609 0.332 0.04 0.014 D +28 282562 80 Michigan Ottawa 100% in 0.318 0.622 0.045 0.01 R +30 269795 81 Michigan Kalamazoo 100% in 0.533 0.405 0.045 0.013 D +13 254870 82 Michigan Saginaw 100% in 0.471 0.483 0.034 0.008 R +1 197727 83 Michigan Livingston 100% in 0.326 0.622 0.04 0.009 R +30 183264 84 Michigan Muskegon 100% in 0.475 0.466 0.041 0.012 D +1 171328 85 Michigan St. Clair 100% in 0.315 0.629 0.038 0.004 R +31 161008 86 Michigan Jackson 100% in 0.371 0.572 0.042 0.01 R +20 159927 87 Michigan Berrien 100% in 0.41 0.538 0.038 0.009 R +13 155992 88 Michigan Monroe 100% in 0.362 0.584 0.04 0.01 R +22 150851 89 Michigan Calhoun 100% in 0.411 0.536 0.039 0.011 R +12 135150 90 Michigan Allegan 100% in 0.325 0.613 0.045 0.011 R +29 112266 91 Michigan Eaton 100% in 0.441 0.496 0.047 0.011 R +6 108081 92 Michigan Bay 100% in 0.409 0.535 0.041 0.01 R +13 107074 93 Michigan Lenawee 100% in 0.365 0.576 0.045 0.01 R +21 99257 94 Michigan Grand Traverse 100% in 0.407 0.533 0.042 0.015 R +13 88981 95 Michigan Lapeer 100% in 0.282 0.666 0.038 0.009 R +38 88155 96 Michigan Midland 100% in 0.369 0.563 0.052 0.01 R +19 83620 97 Michigan Clinton 100% in 0.407 0.533 0.046 0.009 R +13 76479 98 Michigan Van Buren 100% in 0.399 0.539 0.045 0.013 R +14 75569 99 Michigan Isabella 100% in 0.45 0.487 0.043 0.016 R +4 70506 100 Michigan Shiawassee 100% in 0.369 0.565 0.049 0.011 R +20 69553 101 Michigan Marquette 100% in 0.488 0.445 0.044 0.018 D +4 67535 102 Michigan Ionia 100% in 0.311 0.621 0.051 0.011 R +31 63976 103 Michigan Montcalm 100% in 0.297 0.637 0.05 0.011 R +34 63046 104 Michigan St. Joseph 100% in 0.317 0.626 0.039 0.012 R +31 60998 105 Michigan Barry 100% in 0.301 0.634 0.047 0.011 R +33 59107 106 Michigan Tuscola 100% in 0.286 0.666 0.034 0.008 R +38 54795 107 Michigan Cass 100% in 0.312 0.612 0.062 0.009 R +30 52001 108 Michigan Newaygo 100% in 0.275 0.671 0.039 0.009 R +40 48126 109 Michigan Hillsdale 100% in 0.241 0.709 0.035 0.009 R +47 46282 110 Michigan Branch 100% in 0.287 0.669 0.032 0.008 R +38 43965 111 Michigan Mecosta 100% in 0.34 0.601 0.041 0.013 R +26 43226 112 Michigan Sanilac 100% in 0.253 0.699 0.034 0.009 R +45 42301 113 Michigan Gratiot 100% in 0.345 0.601 0.042 0.009 R +26 42057 114 Michigan Chippewa 100% in 0.348 0.591 0.038 0.016 R +24 38698 115 Michigan Delta 100% in 0.348 0.602 0.036 0.01 R +25 36841 116 Michigan Houghton 100% in 0.385 0.542 0.054 0.014 R +16 36739 117 Michigan Emmet 100% in 0.371 0.565 0.043 0.015 R +19 32922 118 Michigan Wexford 100% in 0.29 0.654 0.038 0.013 R +36 32699 119 Michigan Huron 100% in 0.289 0.671 0.03 0.007 R +38 32525 120 Michigan Clare 100% in 0.318 0.636 0.033 0.009 R +32 30786 121 Michigan Alpena 100% in 0.332 0.619 0.034 0.011 R +29 29242 122 Michigan Mason 100% in 0.36 0.58 0.041 0.013 R +22 28705 123 Michigan Oceana 100% in 0.334 0.607 0.041 0.01 R +27 26325 124 Michigan Dickinson 100% in 0.299 0.653 0.034 0.009 R +35 26097 125 Michigan Charlevoix 100% in 0.353 0.595 0.037 0.012 R +24 26038 126 Michigan Cheboygan 100% in 0.315 0.636 0.034 0.01 R +32 25821 127 Michigan Gladwin 100% in 0.304 0.651 0.032 0.007 R +35 25599 128 Michigan Iosco 100% in 0.325 0.625 0.034 0.011 R +30 25504 129 Michigan Manistee 100% in 0.395 0.549 0.036 0.016 R +15 24545 130 Michigan Roscommon 100% in 0.329 0.625 0.032 0.011 R +30 24141 131 Michigan Otsego 100% in 0.284 0.66 0.038 0.013 R +38 24126 132 Michigan Menominee 100% in 0.329 0.623 0.033 0.011 R +29 23838 133 Michigan Antrim 100% in 0.328 0.624 0.034 0.011 R +30 23368 134 Michigan Osceola 100% in 0.255 0.692 0.038 0.009 R +44 23327 135 Michigan Leelanau 100% in 0.459 0.491 0.035 0.013 R +3 21739 136 Michigan Ogemaw 100% in 0.292 0.657 0.034 0.011 R +37 21373 137 Michigan Benzie 100% in 0.402 0.542 0.037 0.015 R +14 17450 138 Michigan Kalkaska 100% in 0.255 0.697 0.032 0.013 R +44 17204 139 Michigan Gogebic 100% in 0.4 0.55 0.029 0.016 R +15 16042 140 Michigan Arenac 100% in 0.3 0.631 0.058 0.007 R +33 15564 141 Michigan Missaukee 100% in 0.214 0.738 0.033 0.01 R +52 14986 142 Michigan Crawford 100% in 0.309 0.637 0.039 0.01 R +33 13941 143 Michigan Presque Isle 100% in 0.333 0.622 0.033 0.007 R +29 13128 144 Michigan Iron 100% in 0.339 0.622 0.03 0.006 R +28 11615 145 Michigan Lake 100% in 0.364 0.593 0.029 0.009 R +23 11431 146 Michigan Mackinac 100% in 0.342 0.614 0.03 0.011 R +27 11080 147 Michigan Alcona 100% in 0.28 0.68 0.027 0.009 R +40 10657 148 Michigan Alger 100% in 0.368 0.573 0.039 0.015 R +20 9516 149 Michigan Montmorency 100% in 0.257 0.698 0.032 0.009 R +44 9506 150 Michigan Baraga 100% in 0.332 0.619 0.03 0.014 R +29 8740 151 Michigan Oscoda 100% in 0.257 0.7 0.034 0.004 R +44 8525 152 Michigan Schoolcraft 100% in 0.33 0.616 0.04 0.007 R +29 8345 153 Michigan Luce 100% in 0.264 0.682 0.04 0.011 R +42 6512 154 Michigan Ontonagon 100% in 0.344 0.605 0.037 0.008 R +26 6448 155 Michigan Keweenaw 100% in 0.369 0.57 0.043 0.014 R +20 2197 156 Pennsylvania Philadelphia 98.8% in 0.824 0.155 0.01 0.009 D +67 1546920 157 Pennsylvania Allegheny 100% in 0.564 0.4 0.025 0.008 D +16 1229172 158 Pennsylvania Montgomery 100% in 0.587 0.376 0.025 0.009 D +21 809372 159 Pennsylvania Bucks 100% in 0.484 0.478 0.025 0.009 D +1 626205 160 Pennsylvania Delaware 99.8% in 0.594 0.374 0.02 0.009 D +22 560775 161 Pennsylvania Lancaster 100% in 0.377 0.573 0.035 0.008 R +20 526839 162 Pennsylvania Chester 100% in 0.526 0.433 0.029 0.008 D +9 506422 163 Pennsylvania York 100% in 0.332 0.625 0.031 0.008 R +29 438052 164 Pennsylvania Berks 100% in 0.427 0.529 0.029 0.011 R +10 413016 165 Pennsylvania Westmoreland 100% in 0.327 0.641 0.024 0.005 R +31 362587 166 Pennsylvania Lehigh 100% in 0.504 0.459 0.025 0.009 D +4 354537 167 Pennsylvania Luzerne 100% in 0.388 0.584 0.017 0.009 R +20 320392 168 Pennsylvania Northampton 100% in 0.462 0.5 0.026 0.01 R +4 299225 169 Pennsylvania Erie 100% in 0.468 0.488 0.031 0.009 R +2 280132 170 Pennsylvania Dauphin 100% in 0.494 0.466 0.027 0.009 D +3 269946 171 Pennsylvania Cumberland 100% in 0.385 0.571 0.032 0.008 R +19 239420 172 Pennsylvania Lackawanna 100% in 0.502 0.468 0.019 0.009 D +3 214023 173 Pennsylvania Washington 100% in 0.355 0.608 0.026 0.007 R +25 208157 174 Pennsylvania Butler 100% in 0.292 0.667 0.031 0.006 R +38 185034 175 Pennsylvania Beaver 100% in 0.382 0.583 0.024 0.006 R +20 170124 176 Pennsylvania Monroe 100% in 0.484 0.481 0.021 0.011 D +0 168342 177 Pennsylvania Centre 100% in 0.485 0.466 0.035 0.01 D +2 156240 178 Pennsylvania Franklin 100% in 0.25 0.715 0.024 0.006 R +46 151517 179 Pennsylvania Schuylkill 100% in 0.267 0.7 0.022 0.007 R +43 147146 180 Pennsylvania Cambria 100% in 0.296 0.673 0.02 0.007 R +38 140835 181 Pennsylvania Fayette 100% in 0.334 0.644 0.016 0.004 R +31 135376 182 Pennsylvania Lebanon 100% in 0.303 0.659 0.026 0.007 R +36 135184 183 Pennsylvania Blair 100% in 0.252 0.715 0.023 0.006 R +46 126708 184 Pennsylvania Lycoming 100% in 0.257 0.705 0.026 0.008 R +45 116676 185 Pennsylvania Mercer 100% in 0.356 0.606 0.026 0.008 R +25 115739 186 Pennsylvania Adams 100% in 0.299 0.663 0.026 0.008 R +36 101566 187 Pennsylvania Northumberland 100% in 0.263 0.698 0.026 0.008 R +44 94294 188 Pennsylvania Lawrence 100% in 0.344 0.624 0.021 0.006 R +28 89859 189 Pennsylvania Indiana 100% in 0.304 0.661 0.024 0.006 R +36 88301 190 Pennsylvania Crawford 100% in 0.287 0.672 0.028 0.007 R +39 87801 191 Pennsylvania Clearfield 100% in 0.236 0.731 0.023 0.006 R +50 81472 192 Pennsylvania Somerset 100% in 0.206 0.765 0.019 0.005 R +56 77011 193 Pennsylvania Armstrong 100% in 0.225 0.745 0.022 0.004 R +52 68343 194 Pennsylvania Columbia 100% in 0.313 0.641 0.031 0.01 R +33 67089 195 Pennsylvania Carbon 100% in 0.31 0.652 0.024 0.009 R +34 64874 196 Pennsylvania Bradford 100% in 0.247 0.707 0.034 0.005 R +46 62510 197 Pennsylvania Pike 100% in 0.355 0.615 0.019 0.009 R +26 56883 198 Pennsylvania Venango 100% in 0.267 0.69 0.031 0.006 R +42 54265 199 Pennsylvania Wayne 100% in 0.286 0.683 0.019 0.009 R +40 51967 200 Pennsylvania Bedford 100% in 0.154 0.828 0.011 0.004 R +67 49332 201 Pennsylvania Mifflin 100% in 0.195 0.77 0.026 0.004 R +57 46705 202 Pennsylvania Huntingdon 100% in 0.23 0.737 0.021 0.005 R +51 45950 203 Pennsylvania Perry 100% in 0.219 0.738 0.029 0.008 R +52 45788 204 Pennsylvania Union 100% in 0.353 0.609 0.026 0.008 R +26 44955 205 Pennsylvania Jefferson 100% in 0.185 0.783 0.022 0.006 R +60 44935 206 Pennsylvania McKean 100% in 0.244 0.717 0.025 0.009 R +47 43024 207 Pennsylvania Susquehanna 100% in 0.264 0.692 0.029 0.01 R +43 42708 208 Pennsylvania Tioga 100% in 0.21 0.746 0.03 0.008 R +54 42358 209 Pennsylvania Warren 100% in 0.274 0.683 0.03 0.007 R +41 41218 210 Pennsylvania Snyder 100% in 0.244 0.717 0.028 0.007 R +47 39922 211 Pennsylvania Clinton 100% in 0.305 0.654 0.03 0.008 R +35 39611 212 Pennsylvania Clarion 100% in 0.243 0.718 0.027 0.007 R +47 39437 213 Pennsylvania Greene 100% in 0.278 0.695 0.018 0.005 R +42 38171 214 Pennsylvania Elk 100% in 0.263 0.7 0.027 0.006 R +44 31584 215 Pennsylvania Wyoming 100% in 0.288 0.674 0.025 0.009 R +39 28229 216 Pennsylvania Juniata 100% in 0.174 0.792 0.019 0.007 R +62 24793 217 Pennsylvania Montour 100% in 0.334 0.618 0.034 0.008 R +28 18475 218 Pennsylvania Potter 100% in 0.167 0.803 0.021 0.004 R +64 17451 219 Pennsylvania Fulton 100% in 0.134 0.842 0.014 0.005 R +71 14747 220 Pennsylvania Forest 100% in 0.261 0.701 0.025 0.008 R +44 7649 221 Pennsylvania Sullivan 100% in 0.239 0.732 0.021 0.004 R +49 6400 222 Pennsylvania Cameron 100% in 0.232 0.739 0.025 0.002 R +51 4939

See also

• United States presidential election, 2012
• Hearing index for decision making
• Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaalit 2016: an analysis of US presidential election 2016 using open policy practice as criterion. (in Finnish)