Talk:Health effects of urban heat islands

Instructions from Maud 11.5.2010

Notes WP4.3 telemeeting dd. 11-05-2010 - WP4.3 direct effects of heat Maud Huynen (ICIS, Maastricht), Rainer Friedrich & Alexandra Kuhn (Stuttgart)

DRAFT dd 11-05-2010

Questions posed by Maud before telemeeting (by email dd. 10-05-2010):

1)Who is doing the exposure assessment (Stuttgart or THL) and how do we make sure that this exposure work actually provides the exposure-input for the health impact models (see also below and my input for the screening). Who do I need to talk to about this?

2)Who is linking the grid-based exposure/population data to my health impact models (excel based). As have indicated many times over the pas few years, I have no GIS expertise.  In Rome, Rainer assured me that Stuttgart would take care of this, but this is not reflected in the recent organizational diagram. Please also see my email to Alex dd. March 2nd.

3)What about UV-melanoma assessment. It is not included in the organizational diagram, it is rather indirect and Ola has informed me that he will not be able to do the UV exposure assessment. Shall we exclude this part of the work from the more detailed WP4.3 analyses? This way I can spend my remaining PM on developing the WP4.3 health impact model for heat effects on mortality.

4)Planning: when do you need my health impact models? I will probably work on this in July and August, as the WP3.7 work is still ongoing at the moment. I will be on maternity leave in September, so models will be ready in august at the very latest.

WP4.3 includes the assessment of heat-related health effects in cities under two climate change scenarios, complemented with an adaptation scenario on decreasing the urban heat-island effect by e.g. more shading. Time horizon: baseline (2005), 2020, 2030, 2050. WP4.3 focuses on 5-year age groups, males/females

HEAT-EXPOSURE: THL is responsible for the ‘exposure side’ of this assessment. Obtaining exposure data (e.g. temperature) for baseline and future years. However, the exposure variable used in the DRF of the health impact model are based on Max Apparent Temperature (AT) above region-specific threshold. Hence, ICIS and THL needs to discuss how to deal with this gap between available data (probably temperature) and required exposure data (AT above thresshold). Estimating the effect of urban heat island policy on exposure as part of adaptation policy.

Responsible person within THL: Jouni Tuomisto.

EXPOSURE VARIBALE TEMPERATURE VERSUS APPARENT TEMPERATURE

The DRF between heat stress and mortality is based on Apparent Temperature. Exposure indicator: °C Daily maximum Apparent Temperature over threshold temperature, warm season (April-September), lag 0-3 exposure (average of the current and the previous 3 days maximum apparent temperature) See Baccini et al (Pan-European PHEWE study). However, AT is not widely available. This needs to be resolved for e.g.: leave dewpoint from AT calculations as only small percentage of actual AT value???? I.e. assume that dewpoint will remain unchanged under CC? AT in summer by estimating dew point temperature from relative humidity and air temperature (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dew_point) or using dew point conversion?

AT = (-2.653)+(0.994* Ta)+(0.0153* Td)

Where

AT is Apparent Temperature (deg C) Ta air temperature (deg C) Td dewpoint temperature (deg C)

DOSE-RESPONSE FUNCTIONS: ICIS is going to provide input on the DRF DRF between heat exposure and mortality, Health outcomes included: overall mortality, cardiovascular mortality, respiratory mortality. I assume that background mortality data for these causes is available within WP4.3, including estimates for future scenarios? Building on the WP4.3-screeninga and WP3.7 work, this will be based on the PHEWE project, which investigated the acute health effects of weather in 15 European cities and provided both pooled estimates of the impact of heat on mortality (Michelozzi et al. 2007; Baccini et al. 2008). DRF are based on a linear threshold model. Threshold differs per geographic region. DRF: % change in summer mortality per degree (AT°C) above the heat threshold (95% confidence intervals). DRF differs for the mediterean region and the North-continental region.

We agreed that ICIS will develop, excel-based template spreadsheets for the PAF-based health impact modeling for the Mediterranean and North-Continental European regions, in such a way that per grid or city the following input needs to be inserted: population data, exposure data, and mortality data. This will be accompanied by a descriptive text as well.

MODELLING (grid-based or for multiple cities): THL is responsible for the actual modeling THL will be responsible to link the health impact spreadsheets developed by ICIS with population data, exposure data, and mortality data. Calculations will be done for multiple cities or on a grid (to be further discussed with THL and Stuttgart.

NOTE on UV: The UV part of the WP4.3 screening will not be taken up further in the detailed analyses. However, we agreed that ICIS will include a half page text on additive effect of increasing temperatures on UV-induced skin cancer mortality compared to the direct mortality effects of heat in the WP4.3 assessment.

PLANNING: ICIS will provide required input in July. ICIS needs to discuss exposure variable with THL before July (or early July at the latest). Maud will be on pregnancy leave from September-December.