Goherr: WP3 Scenarios and management objectives

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Summary of workpackage

Work package number: WP 3
Start date or starting event: Month 1
Work package title: Scenarios and management objectives
Activity Type: RTD
Participant number 5 1 2 3 4
Participant short name UOULU UH THL IFM-AAU SLU
Person-months per participant 15 16 2 0 0

Contact information

Name Institution e-mail skype phone Responsibilities
Timo P. Karjalainen Thule institute, University of Oulu timo.p.karjalainen@oulu.fi PI; WP3 leader
Simo Sarkki Thule institute, University of Oulu simo.sarkki@oulu.fi
Mia Pihlajamäki Thule institute, University of Oulu mia.pihlajamaki@oulu.fi



  • 1. Define objectives for integrated salmon and herring policy
  • 2. Define pathways for reaching the objectives
  • 3. Build exploratory future scenarios for eutrophication and dioxin input in the Baltic Sea, and for the use of Baltic herring and salmon


  • Task 3.1. Defining desired future state and objectives for integrated salmon and herring policy (UOULU, UH, THL) (Month 12)
Representatives from different stakeholder groups (fishers, consumers, eNGOs, authorities, scientists) will be involved in defining and prioritizing biological, social, economic, and human health related objectives for integrated salmon and herring policy. First, a questionnaire study using internet based survey tool Webropol(www.webropol.fi) will be carried out targeted to stakeholder groups. The results of the questionnaire will be evaluated with stakeholders in the International Workshop No1 (month 10), and based on that, objectives and targets will be defined both in qualitative and quantitative terms (e.g. target % to decrease dioxin level in fish), in collaboration with WP2 (Task2.2). The method of value-focused thinking will be used. It is a systematic procedure for identifying and structuring values and objectives by dividing the objectives into a)fundamental - b) means - c) process-, and d) organizational objectives (Keeney, 1992). The method is expected to lead to thoughtful and innovative management options (Arvai et al., 2001; Gregory and Keeney,1994).
  • Task 3.2. Identifying desirable future paths to reach the objectives (UOULU, UH, THL) (Month 20)
In the International Workshop No1 (month 10), defining the management objectives and targets for salmon and herring will be followed by identifying pathways to reach the desired management outcomes (e.g. what changes are needed, who should change and what, when). The proposed changes will be analysed backwards from the objective to the current situation, and a timeline for changes required to meet the future targets will be created. We apply the backcasting methodology (e.g. Robinson 2003), by not only focusing on desired outcomes, but also elaborating the processes needed to achieve the outcomes.
  • Task.3.3. Building scenarios (UOULU, UH) (Month 28)
An exploratory approach will be used in scenario building, based on existing large scale environmental scenarios (e.g. the Global Environmental Outlook), literature reviews (WP2), stakeholder interviews (WP2), the work on dioxin (WP5), and expert workshops (scientists, authorities, industry representatives). The aim is to: a) Build and explore four integrative scenarios for the future of Baltic salmon and herring regarding threats, state, impacts and governance responses, and; b) Build scenarios up to year 2040 for the needs of the Decision Support Tool (WP6) related to 1) eutrophication and 2) dioxin releases, 3) the use of Baltic herring, and 4) salmon policy, by taking into account different political, economic, social, technical, climate change-related etc. circumstances. For the Decision Support Tool (WP6) the probability of materialization of each identified scenario will be estimated by probabilities. Experts’ views will also be interviewed in relation to potential management measures to decrease eutrophication and dioxin input in the Baltic.

Tentative timeline

GOHERR WP 3 timeline


Baltic salmon and herring governance more sustainable (Month 24). Responsible partner: UOULU.

  • D3.5. Journal publication (submitted): Developing the scenario methodology in the context of complex multilevel fisheries governance (Month 26). Responsible partner: UOULU.

See also

Goherr Research project 2015-2018: Integrated governance of Baltic herring and salmon stocks involving stakeholders

GOHERR logo NEW.png Goherr public website


WP1 Management · WP2 Sociocultural use, value and goverrnance of Baltic salmon and herring · WP3 Scenarios and management objectives · WP4 Linking fish physiology to food production and bioaccumulation of dioxin · WP5 Linking the health of the Baltic Sea with health of humans: Dioxin · WP6 Building a decision support model for integrated governance · WP7 Dissemination

Other pages in Opasnet

GOHERR assessment · Goherr flyer · Goherr scenarios · Relevant literature: policy · dioxins · values


Exposure- response functions of dioxins · Fish consumption in Sweden · POP concentrations in Baltic sea fish · Exposure-response functions of Omega3 fatty acids

Methods Health impact assessment · OpasnetBaseUtils‎ · Modelling in Opasnet
Other assessments Benefit-risk assessment of Baltic herring · Benefit-risk assessment on farmed salmon · Benefit-risk assessment of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids in fish · Benefit-risk assessment of fish consumption for Beneris · Benefit-risk assessment of Baltic herring (in Finnish)
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Related files

GOHERR Kick off_WP3_UOulu