Decision analysis and risk management 2017

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This page is about a course Decision analysis and risk management organised in 2017. For a course organised in 2015, 2013 and 2011, see Decision analysis and risk management 2015, Decision analysis and risk management 2013 and Decision analysis and risk management, respectively. If you cannot find answers on these pages, you can contact the course organiser Jouni Tuomisto (jouni.tuomisto(at)thl.fi).

Decision analysis and risk management (DARM)[1] is a course taught in the University of Eastern Finland (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.

Aims of the course

To give a good understanding and practical skills to perform, participate, and moderate decision analyses, open assessments, and open policy practice using Opasnet.

The capability to act as an expert facilitator is the key objective in developing the course content. The purpose is to learn to effectively use facilitation to improve decision support.

In the course:

The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between assessments and societal decision making, and the role of decision making in a pragmatic context of improving outcomes. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of an assessment, and know how to build an open assessment based on the requirements of societal decision making.

The focus is on how to convincingly exclude poor decision options rather than trying to find a theoretically optimal solution (e.g. with highest expected utility).

Course evaluation

On the last day (16th May 2017) the students will be asked to evaluate the course using the evaluation criteria of properties of good decision support. In addition, they will be asked whether the homework were too heavy for the time available. A summary of the written comments from the 2015 course is available on the course page.

Course details

  • Name: Decision analysis and risk management          
  • Abbreviation: DARM
  • ECTS-credits: 6
  • Home page of the course: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm
  • Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment
  • Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
  • Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): Yes.
  • Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL)          
  • Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen
  • Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, (Mikko Pohjola, Marjo Niittynen?)
  • Contact Persons email: jouni.tuomisto(at)thl.fi     
  • Registration for the Course: WebOodi at UEF. If you don't need course credits, you can contact Jouni Tuomisto directly.

Teaching / Learning Methods

  • Lectures 8 h
  • Checkpoints of exercises 4 h
  • Seminars (practical work done presented by students): 6 h
  • Course evaluation discussion 1 h
  • TOTAL 19 h
  • Distance learning: Own reading and homeworks 143 h

Lectures and videos

See the Content and schedule table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is typically 2 * 45 min, held without a break. The lectures and sessions start 15 min past full hour.

You may follow the 2015 lectures online. They are stored in Google Drive. You do NOT need a password for Darm videos. The video system should work without problems in Windows and Mac and with Firefox, Safari, Chrome, and Internet Explorer. However, you may have problems to see the videos with mobile phones or tablets.

  • 18.3.2015 08:25 Introduction part 1 [2]
  • 18.3.2015 08:32 Introduction, part 2 [3]
  • 23.3.2015 13:15 Impact assessment [4]
  • 24.3.2015 08:15 Management of assessments [5]
  • 25.3.2015 08:15 Homework 3, 5, 6 [6]
  • 25.3.2015 13:15 Structure of Opasnet pages [7]
  • 26.3.2015 08:15 Homework 9, 10 [8]
  • 11.5.2015 09:15 Seminar, part 1 [9]
  • 11.5.2015 12:15 Seminar, part 2 [10]
  • 12.5.2015 12:15 Seminar, part 3 [11]
  • 12.5.2015 14:15 Seminar, part 4 [12]
  • 12.5.2015 14:26 Seminar, course evaluation [13]

Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, online videos, web-sites, web-documents, and materials in Quizlet and Khan Academy. Due to copyright reasons, some of the materials may be distributed directly to the participants and not via Opasnet. If possible, links to all material is provided on this page.

Homework exercises

See Decision analysis and risk management 2017/Homework

Evaluation

Acceptable completion of all homeworks 1-9 and seminar presentation in the end of the course. Seminars are mandatory.

The following homeworks are evaluated on a 0-1 scale, where 0 = not completed and 1 = completed. (maximum 5 points)
  • 1a
  • 1b,c,d
  • 2
  • 3a
  • 3b
The following homeworks and seminar presentation are evaluated on a 0-2 scale, where 0 = not completed, 1 = satisfactory, 1.5 = good, 2 = excellent. (maximum 12 points)
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6a,b
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9

Satisfactory completion of all homework exercise gives 11 points and score 1 (on a 1-5 scale). By doing better that satisfactorily in exercises 4-9, it is possible to get a higher score as follows:

Points Score
<12 1
12.5-13.5 2
13.5-14.5 3
15-15.5 4
16-17 5

Content and schedule

To prepare for the course: study these terms: Glossary#Terms in open assessment. This is important, because in open policy practice we use a lot of words that in everyday language may be synonyms or may have several different meanings. In this context, they have a specific meaning and they are NOT replaceable with similar terms.

Teaching material

All material will be openly available online.

Khan Academy:

Quizlet:

Subscribe to the class Open policy practice by clicking this link (Course on decision analysis and risk management). Learn all sets of terms.

DARM schedule 2017
Date Time Place Topic
21.03. Tue 08.00-10.00 SN300 seminar room Introduction, overview, course tasks, terminology (slides with voice). Homework 1: read/browse Open policy practice and answer some questions. Homework 2 given (only checked based on the update table). Additional reading: Opasnet training, Different (legal) assessment frameworks
27.03. Mon 08.00-10.00 SN201 auditorium Guidance for Kahn Academy and Quizlet websites. Answers to practical questions. Basic wiki guidance. Impact assessment and decision making, a risk management overview (slides). Open policy practice. Case vaccination: Pneumococcal vaccine. Homework 3 given: Make two new questions about what is unclear to you about the concepts to your user page. Shared information objects in policy support. Homework 4 given: Develop a basic assessment structure about an information need.
30.03. Thu 13.00-16.00 ME201 meeting room Homework 1 checked. Questions related to homework 2 discussed. Management of assessments and decision making: execution, evaluation, facilitation. (slides). Decision analysis. Basic concepts and information structures in open assessment: assessment, variable, knowledge crystal. Their implementation in Opasnet. Case studies. Helsinki energy decision 2015 (started by the previous Darm course!) with ovariables about buildings, energy, exposure-response functions, health model. Case climate change (Urgenche) (slides). Practical training of Opasnet: looking at the Training assessment.
04.04. Tue 08.00-10.00 SN206 seminar room Homework 3 checked. No slides. Topic: Climate policies. Homework 5 given. Homework 6 given. Additional reading from the 2013 Darm cource: Assessment scoping - aims, decisions, actions, impacts (slides). Assessment scoping & facilitation - participation, roles, perspectives, knowledge, collaboration. (slides). Structured discussion. No slides, see pages Discussion. Homework 7 given. See also the Darm 2013 topics: Environmental impact assessment directive [14], Discussion on safety of Pandemrix
21.04. Fri 08.00-09.00 CA105 computer classroom Homeworks 4 and 5 checked. Homework 8 given about Climate change policies in Helsinki. Homework 9 given. Challenging open policy practice: any arguments against what was thought.
28.04. Fri 14.00-15.00 CA105 computer classroom Checkpoint of work progress. Homeworks 6 and 7 checked. In addition, practical tricks in editing Opasnet as needed (basics of R code, page editing, version control, categories, permanent link, files in Opasnet, upload, linking, using, ... creating articles)
11.5. Thu 10.00-11.00 SN215 Checkpoint of work progress. Homeworks 8 and 9 checked.
15.05. Mon 12.00-16.00 NOTE A CHANGE! SN300 seminar room Group work on Homeworks 7 & 8, hands-on work with instructions MANDATORY
16.05. Tue 12.00-16.00 SN300 seminar room Group work on Homeworks 7 & 8 continues (2 hours). Seminars: Group work presentations about work done yesterday and today. MANDATORY. For details, see Decision analysis and risk management 2017/Homework#Seminar: Lessons learned
29.05. Mon 9.00-12.00 SN202 Seminars: Group work presentations. Course evaluation and feedback. MANDATORY. For details, see Decision analysis and risk management 2017/Homework#Seminar: Lessons learned
8 h lectures, 4 h checkpoints of work progress, 6 h seminars, 1 h evaluation. Total 19 hours of on-site learning.
Distant learning: reading materials, videos, lecture notes, homeworks 1-10. Total 143 h.

Further reading:

Help and guidance

Topic Contact
General arrangements Teaching assistant ? , UEF
Homework exercises 1 - 9: Jouni

Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.

See also

Materials and examples for training in Opasnet and open assessment
Help pages Wiki editingHow to edit wikipagesQuick reference for wiki editingDrawing graphsOpasnet policiesWatching pagesWriting formulaeWord to WikiWiki editing Advanced skills
Training assessment (examples of different objects) Training assessmentTraining exposureTraining health impactTraining costsClimate change policies and health in KuopioClimate change policies in Kuopio
Methods and concepts AssessmentVariableMethodQuestionAnswerRationaleAttributeDecisionResultObject-oriented programming in OpasnetUniversal objectStudyFormulaOpasnetBaseUtilsOpen assessmentPSSP
Terms with changed use ScopeDefinitionResultTool


Advice for using Opasnet
Basics of Opasnet: What is Opasnet · Welcome to Opasnet · Opasnet policies · Open assessment · What is improved by Opasnet and open assessment? · FAQ
How to participate?: Contributing to Opasnet · Discussions in Opasnet · Watching pages · Open assessment method
How to edit pages?: Basic editing · More advanced editing · Quick reference for wiki editing · Wikipedia cheatsheet · Templates
Help for more advanced participation: Copyright · Archiving pages · Copying from Wikipedia · ImageMap · SQL-queries · Analytica conventions · Developing variables · Extended causal diagram · GIS tool · Risk assessment · M-files · Stakeholders · Heande · Todo · Text from PDFs and pictures · Word2MediaWiki · Glossary terms · Formulae

Content of 2011 course

Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.

Introduction to the course

  • introduction to decision analysis: slides

Introduction to risk management

Introduction to using Opasnet

Introduction to probability theory: Slides


Decision analysis. slides

  • Measures of outcome: Utility, DALY, QALY, WTP
  • Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees
  • Influence diagrams, Bayesian belief nets.
  • Purpose of assessment: Why it is done


Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation: slides

  • Computer modeling
    • Why?
  • Approximation
    • When data is not available
  • Monte Carlo simulation
    • When and why to use?
  • Common uncertainty distributions
    • Normal distribution is not the only option


Calculation exercise: slides

Probabilistic models slides


Calculation exercise of calibration and PM risks with Opasnet R


Overall view of different models slides

  • Why do we do modelling?
  • Producing result from rationale.
    • Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates.
    • Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations.
    • Other relations (neural networks).


Decision making under uncertainty

Calculation exercise.

Risk management: State-of-the-art?


Risk management: a social learning perspective

  • lecture: slides
    • participation in assessment and management
    • dimensions of openness
    • assessments as collaborative information production projects
  • discussion:
    • role of public in swine flu case RM?
    • dimensions of openness -analysis of the narcolepsy study RM
  • Additional material: heande:Open participation in environmental health assessment


Risk management: facilitation of (open) risk management


Risk management: from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action


Summary of decision analysis and risk management: slides

  • Overview of DA, RM, OA & ORM
    • Who needs (uses, makes, understands) DA & RM?
  • Examples of past, on-going, and upcoming OA/ORM cases
    • overview
    • model
    • results and analyses
    • conclusions
    • relations to groups' DA study plans
  • What's new about the swine flu case?
  • Q&A, discussions and group feedback on the course contents and arrangements
  • Suggest more topics to be presented or discussed on the last lecture
    • topics can be e.g. some unclear things to be re-reviewed or something you may feel has been missing from the course contents


Final seminar:

  • Presentations of DA study plans by groups
    • 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
  • Presentations of the RM exercises:
    • 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion

Links to additional DA materials

Links to additional RM materials

Background information about other Decision analysis and risk management study programs in Europe and in USA is provided here: Decision analysis and risk management - background information

NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

Keywords

Risk assessment. Decision analysis. Bayesian theory. Open assessment. Risk management. Societal decision making.     

To do

  • Training assessment should be either replaced by a real case or updated.
  • Update slides in lectures 1-4
  • Go through pages in Template:Opasnet training and check what is needed.
  • Fill in the attributes of Pneumococcal vaccine assessment.
  • Update rcodes on ERF of dioxin
  • Konkreettinen esimerkki päätöksenteon ongelmista. Sen kautta esitellään oppn hyödyt. Mikä? Ipcc? Joku oman elämän esimerkki? Mieluummin ehkä yhteiskunnallimen jotta tulee realistisia rooleja. Otetaan silakka bra esimerkiksi vai pneumokokki ja ilmastoaihe konkreettisen työn kohteeksi.
  • Tee eka luennolla harjoitus jossa ryhmänä koetetaan luoda jaettu ymmärrys jostain selkeästä aiheesta. Pieni ja tuttu aihe mutta mikä. Pitää olla yhteisöllinen.
  • Hw7 jaa sivut valmiinsi numeroiduille pareille. Numerot jaetaan kurssilla. Jokaiselle ainakin yksi varoable methos ja encyclopedia.
  • Assessment evaluation tehtävä oikeista arvioinneista: silakka urgenche kuopio, rauma, joitakin opasnetin ulkopuolelta? Minera vesiopas pahtavaara talvivaara fuk ushima

See also

References


Related files

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