{ From user mtad, Model Gasbus_model at 23. Marta 2005 12:46 }
Softwareversion 3.0.1


{ System Variables with non-default values: }
Samplesize := 10K
Windows := 2
Usetable := 0
Typechecking := 1
Checking := 1
Graphwindows := 4
Randomseed := 22
Showundef := 0
Showhier := 1
Saveoptions := 2
Savevalues := 0
Naming := 2
Webhelper := -1
Allwarnings := 0


{ Non-default Time SysVar value: }
Time := [0,1,2]
Title Time: Time
Description Time: Dynamic simulation periods are specified in Time's ~~
definition. This is usually a list of numbers or labels, typically in~~
 some unit of time (days, weeks, months, etc.).  Use the ŅDynamic()Ó ~~
function in your variables to perform dynamic simulation.

Attribute Reference

Attribute Url

Attribute Premises

Attribute Deduction

Askattribute Reference,Function,Yes
Askattribute Url,Function,Yes
Askattribute Reference,Module,Yes
Askattribute Url,Module,Yes
Askattribute Value,Variable,Yes
Askattribute Reference,Variable,Yes
Askattribute Url,Variable,Yes
Model Gasbus_model
Title: GASBUS MODEL
Author: Marko Tainio, Jouni T. Tuomisto, Otto HŠnninen, PŠivi Aarnio,~~
 Kimmo J. Koistinen, Matti J. Jantunen and Juha Pekkanen.
Date: Mon, Mar 26, 2001 14:02
Saveauthor: mtad
Savedate: 23. Marta 2005 12:46
Defaultsize: 48,24
Diagstate: 1,267,20,828,501,17
Fontstyle: Arial, 13
Fileinfo: 0,Model Gasbus_model,2,2,0,0,N:\YEP\publications\2005\Taini~~
o_Gasbus\GASBUS_MODEL.ANA
Att__diagramprintsca: 87,1,1,0,2,1,6533,8533,1
Reference: Marko Tainio, Jouni T. Tuomisto, Otto HŠnninen, PŠivi Aarn~~
io, Kimmo J. Koistinen, Matti J. Jantunen and Juha Pekkanen.~
~
Health effects caused by primary particulate matter (PM2.5) emitted f~~
rom buses in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area, Finland~
~
Risk Analysis, Vol. 25, No.1, 2005. pp.151-160.
Url: http://www.ktl.fi/risk/

Module Help1
Title: Help for pyrkilo diagrams
Description: 28.6.2004 Jouni Tuomisto~
This module contains brief description about pyrkilo diagram method i~~
n Analytica platform. There are explanations for node usage and colou~~
rs. Version 5, 28.6.2004. Copyright KTL (National Public Health Insti~~
tute, Finland).
Author: mtad
Date: 16. Aprta 2003 12:56
Saveauthor: jtue
Savedate: 29. Junta 2004 10:55
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 752,40,0
Nodesize: 48,29
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0
Diagstate: 1,331,284,866,552,17
Fontstyle: Arial, 13
Att__diagramprintsca: 81,1,1,0,2,9,4744,6798,7

Variable Original_data_3r1b
Title: Original data 3R1B
Description: Contains data that comes from a referrable source. The r~~
eference must be mentioned in the Reference attribute. Colour 3R1B.
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 168,336,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,516
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534

Variable Author_judgement_4r2
Title: Author judgement 4R2B
Description: Contains data that comes from a non-referrable source, i~~
.e. some general knowledge or author judgement. Colour 4R2B.
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 168,392,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodecolor: 52425,39321,65535

Variable Log_file_4l3b
Title: Log 4L3B
Description: Contains information about general issues related to the~~
 structure and content of a model. Text is written to Description. Ea~~
ch addition is started with the date and the name of the user. The ti~~
tle of the node is Loki n or Log n (n=version number of the model). Y~~
ou should not write information related to a particular node, that sh~~
ould be written in the node itself so that the information will be in~~
herited with the node. Colour 4L3B.
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 56,464,1
Nodesize: 48,12
Nodecolor: 65535,54067,19661

Constant Argument_
Title: Argument (claim) 2L3B
Description: Argument about a node, data, or relationship in a model~~
; or a description of its importance. Colour: automatic (2L3B).
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 280,280,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodecolor: 65535,31131,19661

Variable Causal_node_8r3b
Title: Causal node 8R3B
Description: This is the basic building block of an Analytica model. ~~
It is a variable that defines a (typically) measurable entity. Usuall~~
y it is calculated based on data on and relationships about its cause~~
s.
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 168,280,1
Nodesize: 48,24

Module Model_6r3b
Title: Module~
6R3B
Description: Modules are used to create a hierarchical structure. Mod~~
ules may contain nodes and other modules inside them.
Author: mtad
Date: 16. Aprta 2003 12:56
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 56,416,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Diagstate: 1,40,0,505,406,17

Close Model_6r3b

Constant Comment_6l3b
Title: Conclusion~
6L3B
Description: A conclusion is basically an argument. The colour is use~~
d to enhance the fact that the data for this argument originates from~~
 the results of the model. Colour 6L3B.
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 280,392,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,44,90,476,224
Nodecolor: 65535,65532,19661

Index Index_5r2b
Title: Index 5R2B
Description: Index related to the node beside it. Indexes should be a~~
s close as possible to the place where they are used. Otherwise there~~
 is the risk of a connection brake. Colour: automatic (5R2B).
Definition: [0]
Nodelocation: 56,316,1
Nodesize: 48,12
Windstate: 2,341,157,476,224

Text Te1
Description: Colour description: xLyT describes the coordinates in th~~
e colour palette, xth cell from left and yth cell from top. Direction~~
s are L left, R right, T top, B bottom, e.g. 1R1B is the right bottom~~
 cell.
Nodelocation: 464,312,-1
Nodesize: 112,56

Decision Decision_9l3b
Title: Decision~
9L3B
Description: Decision mode defines a decision under analysis. Other d~~
ecisions (such as those decided by someone else) can be defined as un~~
certain variables instead of decisions.
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 56,280,1
Nodesize: 48,24

Objective Outcome_1r3b
Title: Outcome~
1R3B
Description: Outcome of interest. The optimisation of this variable i~~
s often defined as the criteria for choosing between decision options~~
.
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 56,360,1
Nodesize: 48,24

Chance Chance_11l4b
Title: Chance~
11L4B
Description: An uncertain variable that is defined as a probability d~~
istribution.
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 168,448,1
Nodesize: 48,24

Constant Read_about_attribute
Title: Read about attributes
Description: This node describes the use of attributes. All attribute~~
s should be used as described in the manuals of Analytica. Exceptions~~
 are described here. This description is written for those who read a~~
s well as for those who write pyrkilo diagrams.~
~
Class: Shows the type of the node. Some of the variable classes have ~~
a special meaning in pyrkilo diagrams. These are presented in Help fo~~
r pyrkilo diagrams module.~
~
Identifier: Name of the node that is used in definitions. This must b~~
e unique. When drafting a model, use automatic identifiers. Only when~~
 there is no expectation of many changes in node Titles, you can stre~~
amline all identifiers. Try to use short names and the same structure~~
 as in the Title. E.g. if title is Long-range transport, use identifi~~
er Lrt.~
~
Units: The unit of the value calculated in the node. Should always be~~
 defined when the node is a part of causal diagram. If the variable d~~
escribed by the node is dimensionless, '-' should be used. If an expl~~
icit unit is not (yet) defined, a description about how the variable ~~
could be measured should be used. E.g. 'mass', 'rate', 'age'.~
~
Title: The title that is shown on the node in diagram mode. First use~~
 a working name that roughly describes the contents. After your model~~
 is stabilised, you can rename nodes to better represent the final es~~
sence. Try to avoid intermediate nodes where it is difficult to under~~
stand what the outcome means; instead, combine consequent nodes so th~~
at the outcome is an understandable (measurable) variable.~
~
Description: A free-text area for describing the contents of the node~~
. All nodes should be explicitly described and justified in the Descr~~
iption so that a user is able to get an idea of the node without look~~
ing at the Definition. If the definiton changes remarkably between ve~~
rsions, it is good to describe this and use dates and user's name for~~
 clarity (in a similar manner as in Log nodes).~
~
Definition: This defines what is calculated in this node. If the node~~
 is a non-numerical argument, it should contain a formula that refers~~
 to all nodes that are used to justify the claim; it this case, the n~~
umerical result will be nonsense.  Pay attention to indexes: all impo~~
rtant indexes must be included, but try to work with as few as possib~~
le. Use the ';' operator to chop the syntax into pieces.~
~
Check: Criteria to check the values entered.~
~
Reference: This contains a detailed information about the source of t~~
he data. The article or book should be found with this data. When bui~~
lding a model, there should be an accompanying RefMan file with the s~~
ame name but a different extension. This file contains the full infor~~
mation about each reference cited in the model. The name and path of ~~
the RefMan file must be mentioned in the Reference of the model. If t~~
here is a relevant internet page or a network file, its path can be a~~
dded here. Analytica 3.0 understands html-code and makes these links ~~
clickable. E.g. this is a link to the <a href=http://www.lumina.com>L~~
umina home page</a>. You can download Analytica Player from there to ~~
browse these models.
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 736,272,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,236,80,581,552

Module Argument_structure
Title: Argument structure
Author: mtad
Date: 30. Aprta 2003 10:22
Saveauthor: jtue
Savedate: 7. Mayta 2003 10:26
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 736,416,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0
Diagstate: 1,14,10,934,679,17
Fontstyle: Arial, 13
Att__diagramprintsca: 79,1,1,0,2,9,4744,6798,7

Variable D_
Title: D (data)~
LŠhtštiedot
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 56,448,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0,
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534

Variable B_
Title: B (backing)~
Taustatuki
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 160,576,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0,
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534

Variable R_
Title: R (rebuttals)~
Varaukset
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 160,392,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0,
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534

Determ Q_
Title: Q (qualifier)~
Tarkennus
Definition: D_+R_+W_
Nodelocation: 160,448,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,507

Variable W_
Title: W (warrant)~
Peruste
Definition: B_
Nodelocation: 160,512,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0,
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,224
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534

Constant C_
Title: C (claim)~
JohtopŠŠtšs
Definition: Q_+Model_variable
Nodelocation: 264,448,1
Nodesize: 48,24

Variable D__hoek_et_al_2002__
Title: D: Hoek et al 2002: association between traffic vicinity & mor~~
tality
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 552,424,1
Nodesize: 64,40
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534

Variable B__greenland__cohort
Title: B: Greenland: Cohort study is the best design in observational~~
 epi
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 680,576,1
Nodesize: 64,38
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534

Variable R__if_the_effect_was
Title: R: if the effect was due to PM
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 680,352,1
Nodesize: 48,28
Nodecolor: 49151,49151,49151

Determ Q__therefore_probabl
Title: Q: therefore probably
Definition: D__hoek_et_al_2002__+R__if_the_effect_was+W__design_was_~~
approp
Nodelocation: 680,424,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodecolor: 19661,48336,65535

Constant W__design_was_approp
Title: W: Design was appropriate
Definition: B__greenland__cohort
Nodelocation: 680,488,1
Nodesize: 52,24
Nodecolor: 65535,31131,19661

Constant C__traffic_pm_increa
Title: C: Traffic PM increases cardiopulm mortality
Description: Hoek et al (Lancet 2002) found out in a cohort study th~~
at a higway near home was a risk factor for overall and cardiopulmona~~
ry mortality. The study was well designed and performed, and the resu~~
lts are convincing, althought the risk estimates were large. However,~~
 the exposure estimation was based on the vicinity of a major road an~~
d black smoke and nitric dioxide ambient concentrations. The current ~~
knowledge tends to associate especially fine particles (PM) with card~~
iopulmonary mortality, and in this study the exposure measure clearly~~
 was an indicator of traffic-related PM. However, other explanations ~~
exist as well, and e.g. noise was not ruled out as a confounder.~
Taken together, the study increases the plausibility of PM being caus~~
ally linked to cardiopulmonary mortality.
Definition: Q__therefore_probabl+Pm_plausibility
Nodelocation: 792,424,1
Nodesize: 48,40
Windstate: 2,412,106,476,224
Nodecolor: 65535,31131,19661

Variable D__harry_is_born_in_
Title: D: Harry is born in Bermuda
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 576,136,1
Nodesize: 48,28
Nodecolor: 52425,39321,65535

Variable W__because_b__those_
Title: W: because~
B: those born in Bermuda are citizens of Great Britain
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 688,232,1
Nodesize: 48,55
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534

Variable R__unless_harry_was_
Title: R: unless Harry was born during a holiday trip
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 688,56,1
Nodesize: 48,38
Nodecolor: 49151,49151,49151

Determ Q__therefore_certain
Title: Q: therefore certainly
Definition: D__harry_is_born_in_+R__unless_harry_was_+W__because_b__t~~
hose_
Nodelocation: 688,136,1
Nodesize: 48,29
Windstate: 1,0,-23
Nodecolor: 19661,48336,65535

Constant C__harry_is_a_citize
Title: C: Harry is a citizen of GB
Definition: Q__therefore_certain
Nodelocation: 800,136,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodecolor: 65535,31131,19661

Variable Pm_plausibility
Title: PM plausibility
Units: probability
Definition: 0.9
Nodelocation: 904,424,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,224
Nodecolor: 52425,39321,65535

Variable Model_variable
Title: Model variable
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 376,448,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodecolor: 19661,48336,65535

Text Te3
Description: Here we show how to describe a complicated reasoning sta~~
rting with different kinds of data and ending up with a claim. This f~~
ollows the ideas of Stephen Toulmin (Uses of Argument, Cambridge Univ~~
ersity Press, 1958). In a simple case or drafting phase it is enough ~~
to create an argument by joining a piece of data to the claim. A clai~~
m node is often called an Argument node, but it should be remembered,~~
 that a full argument includes the reasoning in addition to the outco~~
me. Instead of using several nodes to describe the reasoning, as is d~~
one here, it is often convenient to write it down inside the argument~~
 node, in description attribute (see 'C: Traffic PM increases cardiop~~
ulm mortality'). Note that the arrows usually point from the model to~~
 the claim. The logic of this is that the model is seen as a descript~~
ion of reality. And the reality affects the claim, not vice versa.~
~
- Data (D) or premises describes the information that supports the cl~~
aim.~
- Warrant (W) makes the argument from data to claim a legitimate one.~~
 Often it is not explicitly mentioned in discussion, but it should be~~
 described in a pyrkilo unless it is obvious.~
- Backing (B) contains some background information needed for warrant~~
, and often it is practical to combine these two.~
- Qualifier (Q) describes the strength of the argument.~
- Rebuttal (R) defines the scope when the argument is valid.
Nodelocation: 256,180,-1
Nodesize: 248,172

Close Argument_structure

Module Less_important_node_
Title: Less important node types
Author: jtue
Date: 28. Junta 2004 18:03
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 736,480,1
Nodesize: 48,29
Diagstate: 1,257,40,510,515,17

Module Set_module_
Title: Set~
9L3T
Description: The set module is used as a set containing items, such a~~
s a set of emission sources summing up to the total emission. However~~
, it is not possible to refer to a module. Therefore a set node is us~~
ed instead of the module for refering in the model. If there are item~~
s that belong to several sets, aliases are created and placed in each~~
 set module. A set node is located in the respective set module. Colo~~
ur 9L3T.
Author: jtue
Date: 30. Octta 2003 10:34
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 56,144,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Diagstate: 1,60,78,398,477,17
Nodecolor: 1,52427,26212

Variable Set_9l3t
Title: Set~
9L3T
Description: This node is like an alias to a set module. The set modu~~
le is used as a set containing items, but it is not possible to refer~~
 to a module. Therefore a set node is created, and it is used instead~~
 of the module for refering in the model.~
If there are items that belong to several sets, aliases are created a~~
nd placed in each set. Set node is located in the respective set modu~~
le. Colour 9L3T.
Definition: Item1+Item2+Item3+Item4+Item5
Nodelocation: 48,24,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 1,724,97
Nodecolor: 1,52427,26212

Variable Item5
Title: Item5
Description: This is one item belonging to the set 'Set'.
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 168,24,1
Nodesize: 48,24

Variable Item1
Title: Item1
Description: This is one item belonging to the set 'Set'.
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 168,248,1
Nodesize: 48,24

Variable Item2
Title: Item2
Description: This is one item belonging to the set 'Set'.
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 168,192,1
Nodesize: 48,24

Variable Item3
Title: Item3
Description: This is one item belonging to the set 'Set'.
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 168,136,1
Nodesize: 48,24

Variable Item4
Title: Item4
Description: This is one item belonging to the set 'Set'.
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 168,80,1
Nodesize: 48,24

Close Set_module_

Variable Model_place__holder_
Title: Model place- holder 7L2B
Description: Shows that there is a need for a model, but it is not ye~~
t defined explicitly. Colour 7L2B. Model prototype has the same meani~~
ng, either can be used depending on whether a node or a module is mor~~
e convenient. Colour 7L2B.
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 56,88,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodecolor: 52429,65535,39321

Module Model_prototype
Title: Model prototype
Description: Shows that there is a need for a model, but it is not ye~~
t defined explicitly. Colour 7L2B. Placeholder for a model has the sa~~
me meaning, either can be used depending on whether a node or a modul~~
e is more convenient. Colour 7L2B.
Author: mtad
Date: 16. Aprta 2003 12:56
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 56,32,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodecolor: 52429,65535,39321

Close Model_prototype

Variable Question__lack_of_kn
Title: Question, Lack of information 5R1T
Description: A question or a lack of knowledge. An item that would be~~
 important in a model, but there is no information about its value an~~
d it cannot therefore be used in calculations. Colour: 5R1T.
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 56,272,1
Nodesize: 52,28
Nodecolor: 49151,49151,49151

Constant Constant1
Title: Constant
Description: Note: colour depends on the source of information and ca~~
n be that of original data, author judgement or causal node. Do NOT u~~
se the automatic colour (L2B3), because it is reserved for the argume~~
nt.
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 168,256,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534

Function Function_4r2b(param1)
Title: Function 4R2B
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 168,32,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Paramnames: Param1

Button Button_7r1t
Title: Button~
7R1T
Description: Actually I don't know what can be done with buttons (Jou~~
ni Tuomisto 29.10.2003).
Nodelocation: 168,88,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,356,138,476,224

Determ Q_1
Title: Q (qualifier)~
8R3B
Description: Shows the strength of an argument (or more precisely, th~~
e strength of the data, warrant, and backing to support the argument)~~
. There may be several pieces of data connected by several qualifiers~~
 to one argument (claim). Colour: automatic (8R3B).
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 168,144,1
Nodesize: 48,24

Determ Nuisance_parameter_7
Title: Nuisance parameter 7L1B
Description: This is used to emphasize that there is a lack of knowle~~
dge about this variable, but the variable is still important for unde~~
rstanding causality. In a well-built model, the nuisance parameters a~~
re cancelled out before the outcome, so that they do not affect the r~~
esult given the data used. E.g., we may want to model the human expos~~
ure to traffic emissions. We have an estimate about the relative cont~~
ributions of the most important sources to the exposure, but we don't~~
 have absolute values from fate and dispersion models. Therefore, whe~~
n we want to express causal connections, we must
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 56,208,1
Nodesize: 48,29
Nodecolor: 58981,65535,52427

Variable Non_causal_node_8r2b
Title: Non-causal node 8R2B
Description: Non-causal nodes are used when the relation between node~~
s is not causal. Ice cream consumption and drowning accidents are cor~~
related (at least in Finland). One is not a cause of the other, but b~~
oth are affected by the outside temperature during summer. Non-causal~~
 connections can be used in models for deducting values for one  node~~
 when the other is known. A typical example of this is a top-down mod~~
el, where we may have information on 1) total concentration of a poll~~
utant and 2) source contribution of certain emission sources (as a fr~~
action of total concentration). The source contribution is not a caus~~
al variable, it is merely an index of all (unknown) causal variables,~~
 but it can be used to estimate the concentration caused by a particu~~
lar emission source.
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 168,200,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,587,271,476,412
Nodecolor: 39321,55707,65535

Close Less_important_node_

Variable Log_3
Title: Log 3
Description: 29.10.2003 Jouni Tuomisto~
This is the third version of the Help model. Originally it was planne~~
d that it would habe been included in each model as a linked module, ~~
but soon it was found that the link caused much more trouble than ben~~
efit. It is therefore used as a stand alone model. However, it may be~~
 a good  idea to embed it into each model using Copy (not Link).~
N:\huippuyksikko\tutkimus\mallit\TainioTheUsesOfArgument.ana (7.5.200~~
3) is closed and connected to this file in the module 'Argument struc~~
ure'. It is edited to reflect the current thinking about the argument~~
 structure.
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 736,368,1
Nodesize: 48,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0,
Windstate: 2,433,83,476,398
Nodecolor: 65535,54067,19661
Nodefont: Arial, 13

Objective Preference_8l4b
Title: Preference~
8L4B
Description: A value or preference. Colour 8L4B.
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 280,448,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodecolor: 5,65535,1

Text Introduction_to_pyrk
Title: Introduction to pyrkilo diagrams
Description: Pyrkilo diagram method (or structured deliberation as it~~
 is sometimes called) has been developed to facilitate the Science-Po~~
licy Interface.~
There is a need for methods facilitating the flow of information and ~~
understanding between science and policy. The principle is to describ~~
e a risk situation in a formal manner. Pyrkilo is an enhanced causal ~~
diagram that contains items along a causal pathway (or network) from ~~
e.g. abatement strategies to emissions to dispersion to exposure to e~~
ffects. It has been designed to describe also other than causal conne~~
ctions such as non-causal reasoning, values, preferences, and argumen~~
ts.~
~
These diagrams use Analytica(TM) platform, a graphical Monte Carlo si~~
mulation program. It is based on nodes (or variables or objects). The~~
y are used to describe and define all the pieces needed for a descrip~~
tion of the situation under scrutiny. ~
~
Many nodes are used as described in Analytica manuals. However, there~~
 are also special colours and shapes representing features that are i~~
mportant for pyrkilo diagrams. See Description of each node for more ~~
details. You can see the definitions and descriptions by clicking or ~~
double-clicking the nodes.
Nodelocation: 408,124,-1
Nodesize: 400,116
Windstate: 2,402,92,530,558

Constant Read_more_about_pyrk
Title: Read more about pyrkilo
Description: Understanding of a particular risk develops simultaneou~~
sly at various levels and using differently structured methods. At on~~
e end there is a "discussion layer": political and public discussions~~
 about risks of a hazard with a wide interest on e.g. economical cons~~
equences of available decision options, public health, and social jus~~
tification equity. This discussion is sometimes poorly structured and~~
 does not give scientists or risk assessors clear questions that coul~~
d be answered by scientific methods. At the other end there is a "mod~~
elling layer": models dealing with specific questions such as air con~~
centrations of a pollutant from a specific source or risk-benefit ana~~
lyses of particular actions. The models are complex and use several a~~
ssumptions that are not abvious to outsiders.~
~
There is a need for methods facilitating the flow of information and ~~
understanding between the existing layers. Pyrkilo (from the Finnish ~~
word pyrkiŠ, to aim at) diagrams aim at offering an interface between~~
 the two disciplines. The principle is to describe a risk situation i~~
n a formal manner. It is an enhanced causal diagram that contains ite~~
ms along the causal pathway (or network) from e.g. emissions to dispe~~
rsion to exposure to effects. It has been designed to describe also o~~
ther than causal connections such as values, preferences, and argumen~~
ts.~
~
The pyrkilo method has several objecitves. The structure is relativel~~
y easily understandable and readable. It has a basic structure simila~~
r to but simpler than mathematical causal models. Translation into a ~~
natural language or mathematical model is relatively easy, as is requ~~
ired from an interface. The diagram is fast to build with little data~~
, and the critical parts of the diagram can subsequently be developed~~
 into a full-scale model. It is easy to expand into new areas, as the~~
 political discussion proceeds. Because of its structured and formal ~~
nature, it requires that many assumptions are made explicit unlike in~~
 political rhetoric, and therefore it is easier to identify possibly ~~
illogical or conflicting issues. It can be used to explore the validi~~
ty or importance of an aspect before it is brought into the other dis~~
cipline of heavy modelling or political discourse.~

Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 736,328,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,54,111,572,686

Constant Argument_1
Title: Scope~
2L3B
Description: A scope node is basically an argument. The bevel is used~~
 to enhance the fact that the argument is about the scope of the mode~~
l, (i.e. about the existence of a node or module). Colour: automatic ~~
(2L3B).
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 280,336,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,
Nodecolor: 65535,31131,19661

Close Help1

Text Te2
Description: Model identifier:~
URN:NBN:fi-fe20051170
Nodelocation: 720,160,-1
Nodesize: 84,24

Module Model1
Title: Model
Author: mtad
Date: 21. Marta 2005 11:58
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 320,72,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Diagstate: 1,433,75,559,510,17

Module Emission_model
Title: Emission model
Author: mtad
Date: 21. Marta 2005 11:58
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 240,104,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Diagstate: 1,121,268,664,591,17

Index Alternative_strategi
Title: Alternative strategies
Definition: ['BAU A','EURO 2 D2','EURO 3 D3','CRT filter C','Biodiese~~
l B','Alcohol E','Propane G23','Natural gas G22','Propane G32','Natur~~
al gas G31']
Nodelocation: 184,32,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,593
Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,0,MIDM
Displayinputs: Object Constant

Variable Total_emissions_from
Title: Total emissions from busses
Units: kg/a
Definition: Table(Pollutant,Alternative_strategi)(~
24.291K,15.049K,12.039K,6131,11.147K,3943,Undefined,Undefined,3549,35~~
49,~
1.373542M,1.373645M,1.070116M,1.226174M,1.560585M,662.458K,Undefined,~~
Undefined,504.252K,504.252K,~
76.355K,64.832K,51.866K,11.886K,36.018K,24.844K,Undefined,Undefined,9~~
1.558K,261.594K,~
449.679K,407.443K,325.954K,41.499K,301.809K,38.536K,Undefined,Undefin~~
ed,642.272K,642.272K,~
112.614452M,110.991732M,113.211566M,115.027795M,114.49346M,102.371073~~
M,Undefined,Undefined,134.124551M,115.574569M~
)
Nodelocation: 184,104,1
Nodesize: 48,29
Windstate: 2,294,138,728,569
Defnstate: 1,72,82,551,296,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 2,39,51,625,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534
Reformdef: [Pollutant, Alternative_strategi ]
Reformval: [Pollutant, Alternative_strategi ]
Reference: 11. YTV, Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council. (1999). Vaiht~~
oehtoisten polttoaineiden kŠyttšmahdollisuudet joukkoliikenteessŠ pŠŠ~~
kaupunkiseudulla [The possibilities to use alternative fuels in publi~~
c transport in the Helsinki metropolitan area]. Helsinki Metropolitan~~
 Area Council Publication Series B 1999:5 (in Finnish).

Index Pollutant
Title: Pollutant
Description: Air pollutants, classification by YTV.
Definition: ['Primary PM','NOx','HC','CO','CO2']
Nodelocation: 184,152,1
Nodesize: 48,12
Windstate: 2,478,44,476,476

Chance Relative_emission_f2
Title: Relative emission factor uncertainty
Units: -
Definition: Table(Alternative_strategi)(~
1,1,1,Triangular(0.6,1,1.4),1,1,1,1,1,Triangular(0.8,1,1.2))
Nodelocation: 64,272,1
Nodesize: 52,40
Windstate: 2,102,90,545,344
Defnstate: 2,252,40,416,303,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 2,502,206,416,303,0,MEAN
Nodecolor: 52425,39321,65535
Reformdef: [Self, Alternative_strategi ]
Reformval: [Self, Alternative_strategi ]

Variable Emission_factor
Title: Emission factor
Units: g/km
Definition: 0.321
Nodelocation: 304,104,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,241,207,731,479
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534
Reference: 11. YTV, Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council. (1999). Vaiht~~
oehtoisten polttoaineiden kŠyttšmahdollisuudet joukkoliikenteessŠ pŠŠ~~
kaupunkiseudulla [The possibilities to use alternative fuels in publi~~
c transport in the Helsinki metropolitan area]. Helsinki Metropolitan~~
 Area Council Publication Series B 1999:5 (in Finnish).

Variable Relative_emission_fa
Title: Relative emission factor (Ref)
Units: -
Definition: Using a := Total_emissions_from[Pollutant='Primary PM'] d~~
o~
a/a[Alternative_strategi='BAU A']
Nodelocation: 184,208,1
Nodesize: 48,29
Windstate: 2,102,90,611,443

Variable Bus_pm_emission
Title: Bus PM emission
Units: kg/a
Definition: Relative_emission_fa*Relative_emission_f2*bus_km*(emissio~~
n_factor/1000)*Rel_bus_activity
Nodelocation: 184,272,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,369,96,530,410
Valuestate: 2,173,156,953,303,0,MEAN
Reformval: [Alternative_strategi, Scenario ]

Decision Transportation_devel
Title: Transportation development scenarios
Definition: ['PLJ current 1994','PLJ BAU 2020','PLJ public 2020','PLJ~~
 car 2020','PLJ own']
Nodelocation: 344,376,1
Nodesize: 52,36
Windstate: 2,102,90,545,365

Variable Bus_activity
Title: Bus activity
Definition: Table(Transportation_devel,Self)(~
631K,0,~
0,0,~
1.007M,0,~
0,0,~
0,0~
)
Indexvals: ['trips per day','bus-km/a']
Nodelocation: 344,208,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,54,563,362
Defnstate: 1,88,98,416,303,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 2,51,208,485,285,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534
Reformdef: [Self, Transportation_devel ]
Reformval: [Self, Transportation_devel ]
Numberformat: 1,I,4,2,0,0
Reference: 14. YTV, Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council. (1999). Helsi~~
nki Metropolitan Area Transport System Plan PLJ 1998. Helsinki Metrop~~
olitan Area Council Publication Series A 1999:4.

Variable Rel_bus_activity
Title: Relative bus activity
Units: -
Definition: using a:= bus_activity[bus_activity='trips per day'] do~
using b:= a[Transportation_devel='PLJ public 2020']/a[Transportation_~~
devel='PLJ current 1994'] do~
array(Scenario,[1,b])
Nodelocation: 344,272,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,596,371
Displayoutputs: Constant We_selected_the_publ

Index Scenario
Title: Scenario
Definition: ['Current 1997','PLJ 2020']
Nodelocation: 344,312,1
Nodesize: 52,12
Windstate: 1,361,163

Variable Bus_km
Title: Bus km
Definition: 77000000
Nodelocation: 184,344,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,548,518
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534
Reference: 11. YTV, Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council. (1999). Vaiht~~
oehtoisten polttoaineiden kŠyttšmahdollisuudet joukkoliikenteessŠ pŠŠ~~
kaupunkiseudulla [The possibilities to use alternative fuels in publi~~
c transport in the Helsinki metropolitan area]. Helsinki Metropolitan~~
 Area Council Publication Series B 1999:5 (in Finnish).

Constant We_selected_the_publ
Title: We selected the public-transportation-intensive scenario
Nodelocation: 520,272,1
Nodesize: 68,36
Aliases: Alias We_selected_the_pub1
Displayinputs: Variable Rel_bus_activity

Close Emission_model

Module Exposure_model
Title: Exposure model
Author: mtad
Date: 21. Marta 2005 11:58
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 240,192,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Diagstate: 1,196,207,928,468,17

Variable Road_traffic_a
Title: Road traffic PM a
Units: µg/m^3
Definition: Var a := (Pers_out[PM_class='Secondary']*Long_range_trans~~
port);~
a:= (Expolis__helsinki[Pm_class='CoPM', Environment='Personal']-a);~
a:=a*Pm_exposure_fraction[Pm_source='Road traffic'];~
a
Nodelocation: 288,152,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,231,121,506,470
Defnstate: 1,216,226,695,303,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 2,114,163,697,275,0,STAT
Nodecolor: 19661,48336,65535
Reformval: [Long_range_transport, Weight_factors_ ]

Variable Pm_em_road
Title: PM em road
Units: kg/a
Description: PM-emissions from road traffic in Helsinki Metropolitan ~~
area 1997.
Definition: Table(Traffic_source)(~
169K,250K,83K)
Nodelocation: 616,320,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,608,449
Defnstate: 1,313,77,416,303,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 1,392,172,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534
Displayinputs: ,
Displayoutputs: Constant Emissions_from_buses
Reference: 24. MŠkelŠ, K. (2002). Personal communication, Senior Rese~~
arch Scientist, VTT (Technical research Centre of Finland), Building ~~
and transport.

Variable Pers_out
Title: Personal/ outdoor
Units: -
Definition: (Expolis__helsinki[Environment='Personal']/Expolis__helsi~~
nki[Environment='Ambient'])
Nodelocation: 400,152,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,111,117,476,224
Valuestate: 2,150,105,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 19661,48336,65535
Reformval: [Environment, Pm_class ]

Variable Bus_traffic
Title: Bus traffic PM
Units: µg/m^3
Definition: Road_traffic*Bus_fraction_
Indexvals: ['Expolis, central','Vallius, high']
Nodelocation: 384,320,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,298,181,476,443
Defnstate: 1,150,469,905,303,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 2,151,101,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 19661,48336,65535
Reformval: [Self, Long_range_transport ]
Att__totalsindex: Index Traffic_source

Variable Bus_pm_scenarios
Title: Bus PM scenarios
Units: µg/m^3
Definition: using a:= Bus_pm_emission/Bus_pm_emission[Alternative_str~~
ategi='BAU A', Scenario='Current 1997'] do~
a*Bus_traffic
Nodelocation: 384,384,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,418
Valuestate: 2,251,132,353,300,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Scenario, Alternative_strategi ]

Chance Long_range_transport
Title: Long-range transport (Elrt)
Units: µg/m^3
Definition: triangular(1,2,2.5)
Indexvals: ['Transport, Low','Transport, Central','Transport, High']
Nodelocation: 288,240,1
Nodesize: 48,29
Windstate: 2,102,90,578,407
Defnstate: 1,306,109,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534
Reference: 21. ApSimon, H. M., Gonzales del Campo, M. T., & Adams H.S~~
. (2001). Modelling long-range transport of primary particulate mater~~
ial over Europe. Atmospheric Environment, 35, 343-352.

Variable Ultra___traffic
Title: ULTRA - traffic
Units: µg/m^3
Definition: Var a:=Ultra[Ultra='Local traffic']*Ultra[Ultra='PM2.5 to~~
tal'];~
a:=average(a)~
{2.45}
Nodelocation: 624,152,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,612,168,476,224
Valuestate: 2,392,402,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 19661,48336,65535
Reference: Vallius, M., Lanki, T., Tiittanen, P., Koistinen, K., Ruus~~
kanen, J., and Pekkanen, J. (2003). Source~
apportionment of urban ambient PM2.5 in two successive measurement ca~~
mpaigns in Helsinki, Finland. Atmospheric Environment, 37(5), 615-623~~
.

Variable Road_traffic_b
Title: Road traffic PM b
Units: µg/m^3
Definition: Pers_out[Pm_class='CoPM']*Ultra___traffic
Nodelocation: 512,152,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,500,389
Nodecolor: 19661,48336,65535

Chance Bus_fraction_
Title: Bus fraction (Fbus)
Units: -
Definition: triangular(0.1,(Pm_em_road[Traffic_source='Busses']/Sum(P~~
m_em_road)),0.25)
Indexvals: ['Bussisuhde, low','Bussisuhde, central','Bussisuhde, high~~
t']
Nodelocation: 504,320,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,565,404
Defnstate: 2,134,201,829,303,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 2,136,146,416,303,0,MEAN

Index Traffic_source
Title: Traffic source
Definition: ['Cars','Trucks/vans','Busses']
Nodelocation: 616,368,1
Nodesize: 52,12
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,446

Index Pm_class
Title: PM class
Definition: ['CoPM','Secondary','Soil','Detergents','Sea salt']
Nodelocation: 288,104,1
Nodesize: 48,12
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,458

Index Environment
Title: Environment
Definition: ['Ambient','Indoor','Work','Personal']
Nodelocation: 288,72,1
Nodesize: 48,12
Windstate: 2,102,90,524,323

Chance Road_traffic
Title: Road traffic PM
Units: µg/m^3
Definition: using a:= bernoulli(0.7) do~
using b:= a*Road_traffic_a + (1-a)*Road_traffic_b do ~
b
Nodelocation: 384,256,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,479
Defnstate: 1,150,469,905,303,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 2,151,101,416,303,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Self, Long_range_transport ]
Displayoutputs: Constant The_exposure_was_est

Variable Ultra
Title: ULTRA
Units: µg/m^3 or fraction
Description: Table 1. Descriptive statistics for 29 October 1996Š28 A~~
pril 1997 (total n = 83) and 2 November 1998Š30 April 1999 (total n =~~
 164) (median PM2.5 in µg/m^3).~
~
Fig.3. Contributions (%) of the identifed source components to averag~~
e PM2.5 concentration.
Definition: Table(Self,Ultra_years)(~
8.3,10.6,~
0.3,0.23,~
0.51,0.5,~
0.12,0.05,~
0.03,0.13,~
0.02,0.07,~
0.02,0.02~
)
Indexvals: ['PM2.5 total','Local traffic','LRTAP','Crustal source','O~~
il combustion','Salt / Salt & Pb','Unidentified']
Nodelocation: 736,152,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,258,33,599,581
Defnstate: 2,17,52,416,303,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 2,604,264,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534
Reformdef: [Ultra_years, Self ]
Reformval: [Ultra_years, Self ]
Reference: 23. Vallius, M., Lanki, T., Tiittanen, P., Koistinen, K., ~~
Ruuskanen, J., and Pekkanen, J. (2003). Source apportionment of urban~~
 ambient PM2.5 in two successive measurement campaigns in Helsinki, F~~
inland. Atmospheric Environment, 37(5), 615-623.

Index Ultra_years
Title: ULTRA years
Definition: ['1996-97','1998-99']
Nodelocation: 736,192,1
Nodesize: 48,12
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,359

Variable Pm_exposure_fraction
Title: PM exposure fractions
Units: -
Definition: Var a := (Weight_factors_*Primary_pm_emission);~
Var b := Sum(a,Pm_source);~
a/b
Nodelocation: 176,152,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,524
Valuestate: 2,41,224,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 19661,48336,65535

Variable Primary_pm_emission
Title: Primary PM emission
Units: kg/a
Definition: Table(Pm_source)(~
1.064M,50K,60K,502K,40K)
Nodelocation: 72,152,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,608,449
Defnstate: 2,543,8,339,264,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 1,232,242,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534
Displayinputs: ,
Reference: MŠkelŠ, K. (2002). Personal communication, Senior Research~~
 Scientist, VTT (Technical research Centre of Finland), Building and ~~
transport.~
~
YTV, Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council. (1998). Ilmanlaatu pŠŠkaupun~~
kiseudulla vuonna 1997 [Air Quality in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area~~
 in 1997]. Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council Publication Series 1999~~
:1 (in Finnish).

Chance Weight_factors_
Title: Weight factors (wfi) (Table III)
Units: -
Definition: Table(Pm_source)(~
0.1,1,1,Triangular(1,2,3),1)
Nodelocation: 176,240,1
Nodesize: 52,28
Windstate: 2,241,99,614,575
Defnstate: 2,345,60,339,287,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 2,265,156,416,299,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 52425,39321,65535
Reformdef: [Self, Pm_source ]
Reformval: [Self, Pm_source ]

Index Pm_source
Title: PM source
Definition: ['Energy production','Other point sources','Surface sourc~~
es','Road traffic','Harbor']
Nodelocation: 72,192,1
Nodesize: 48,12
Windstate: 2,567,60,437,464
Valuestate: 2,487,140,416,321,0,MIDM

Variable Expolis__helsinki
Title: EXPOLIS-~
Helsinki
Definition: Table(Pm_class,Environment)(~
3.547,2.6,2.95,3.506032,~
4.668,3.31,3.38,3.35008,~
1.6,2.49,2.42,2.8960864,~
0,0.54,0.22,0.670016,~
0.3,0.23,0.13,0.23311936~
)
Nodelocation: 288,32,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,521,467
Defnstate: 2,574,53,416,303,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 2,442,98,416,300,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534
Reformdef: [Environment, Pm_class ]
Reformval: [Environment, Pm_class ]
Att__totalsindex: Index Pm_class
Reference: 22. Koistinen, K., Edwards, R. D., Mathys, P., Ruuskanen, ~~
J., KŸnzli, N., & Jantunen, M. (2004). Sources of fine particulate ma~~
tter in personal exposures and residential indoor, residential outdoo~~
r and workplace microenvironments in the Helsinki phase of the EXPOLI~~
S study. Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment & Health, 30 suppl~~
. 2, 36-46.

Constant Emissions_from_buses
Title: Emissions from buses is only small fraction of total traffic e~~
missions
Nodelocation: 752,320,1
Nodesize: 60,48
Aliases: Alias Emissions_from_buse1
Nodecolor: 65535,65532,19661
Displayinputs: Variable Pm_em_road

Constant The_exposure_was_est
Title: The exposure was estimated by using two models
Nodelocation: 520,256,1
Nodesize: 56,36
Aliases: Alias The_exposure_was_es1
Displayinputs: Chance Road_traffic

Close Exposure_model

Module Dose_response_model
Title: Dose-response model
Author: mtad
Date: 21. Marta 2005 11:58
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 240,272,1
Nodesize: 56,24
Diagstate: 1,358,87,574,369,17

Index Cause_of_death
Title: Cause of death
Definition: ['Cardiopulmonary','Lung ca','All others','All causes']
Nodelocation: 200,232,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,425

Variable Mortality_rate1
Title: Mortality rate
Units: m^3/µg
Definition: Crude_mortality_rat2*plausibility
Nodelocation: 440,64,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,470
Valuestate: 2,264,274,591,328,1,CDFP
Att__totalsindex: Index M_step_202

Chance Plausibility
Title: Plausibility
Units: -
Description: Includes mechanistic plausibility (coming from toxicolog~~
ical and epidemiological evidence). This plausibility is especially f~~
or traffic exhaust primary particles. Does not include aspects relate~~
d to differential potencies of different particle types.
Definition: Probtable(Cause_of_death,Self)(~
0.3,0.7,~
0.1,0.9,~
0.9,0.1,~
0.2,0.8~
)
Nodelocation: 440,128,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,509
Defnstate: 2,28,305,416,303,0,MIDM
Aliases: Formnode Plausibility2
Nodecolor: 52425,39321,65535
Reformdef: [Self, Cause_of_death ]
Domain: [0,1]
Displayinputs: Object Constant
Displayoutputs: Constant Plausibility_was_def

Variable Chronic_mortality_rr
Title: Chronic mortality RR
Units: RR per PM contrast
Description: Original results from PM cohort studies.
Definition: Table(Cause_of_death,Ci,Study)(~
1.37,1.09,~
1.11,1.03,~
1.68,1.16,~
1.37,1.14,~
0.81,1.04,~
2.31,1.23,~
1.01,1.01,~
0.79,0.95,~
1.3,1.06,~
1.26,1.06,~
1.08,1.02,~
1.47,1.11~
)
Nodelocation: 200,64,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,569,548
Defnstate: 2,28,215,567,291,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 2,88,98,659,277,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534
Reformdef: [Ci, Cause_of_death ]
Reformval: [Cause_of_death, Study ]
Displayinputs: ,
Reference: 16. Dockery, D. W., Pope, C. A., III, Xu, X., Spengler, J~~
. D., Ware, J. H., Fay, M. E., Ferris, B. G., Jr., & Speizer F. E. (1~~
993). An association between air pollution and mortality in six U.S. ~~
cities. The New England Journal Oof Medicine, 329(24), 1753-1759.~
~
17. Pope, C. A. III, Burnett, R. T., Thun, M. J., Calle, E. E., Krews~~
ki, D., Ito, K., & Thurston, G. D. (2002). Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmory~~
 Mortality, and Long-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution.~~
 The Journal of the American Medical Association, 287(9), 1132-1141.

Variable Pm_contrast
Title: PM contrast
Units: µg/m^3
Definition: Table(Study)(~
18.6,10)
Nodelocation: 200,144,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,422
Defnstate: 1,28,274,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534
Displayinputs: ,
Reference: 16. Dockery, D. W., Pope, C. A., III, Xu, X., Spengler, J~~
. D., Ware, J. H., Fay, M. E., Ferris, B. G., Jr., & Speizer F. E. (1~~
993). An association between air pollution and mortality in six U.S. ~~
cities. The New England Journal Of Medicine, 329(24), 1753-1759.~
~
17. Pope, C. A. III, Burnett, R. T., Thun, M. J., Calle, E. E., Krews~~
ki, D., Ito, K., & Thurston, G. D. (2002). Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmory~~
 Mortality, and Long-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution.~~
 The Journal of the American Medical Association, 287(9), 1132-1141.

Index Coefficient_space
Title: Coefficient space
Definition: Sequence( -0.02, 0.05, 2m )
Nodelocation: 320,120,1
Nodesize: 48,20
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,401

Index Ci
Title: CI
Definition: ['Central','0.025 fractile','0.975 fractile']
Nodelocation: 200,104,1
Nodesize: 48,12
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,407

Index Study
Title: Study
Definition: ['Harvard six cities','ACS 2002']
Nodelocation: 200,184,1
Nodesize: 48,12
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,434

Chance Crude_mortality_rat2
Title: Crude mortality rate random
Units: m^3/µg
Definition: using a:= ln(Chronic_mortality_rr)/Pm_contrast~
do using au:= a[Ci='0.975 fractile']~
do using al:= a[Ci='0.025 fractile']~
do using ac:= a[Ci='Central']~
do using b:= (au-al)/2/1.96~
do using c:= Cumnormal(Coefficient_space,ac,b)~
do using d:= Uncumulate(c,Coefficient_space)~
do using e:= Probdist(d, coefficient_space )~
do using f:= (if bernoulli(0.5)=1 then e[study='Harvard six cities'] ~~
else e[study='ACS 2002'])~
do f
Nodelocation: 320,64,1
Nodesize: 48,29
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,578
Valuestate: 2,245,357,530,212,0,STAT

Constant Plausibility_was_def
Title: Plausibility was defined as the probability that the observed ~~
dose-response relationship actually represents a causal association
Nodelocation: 440,240,1
Nodesize: 80,68
Aliases: Alias Plausibility_was_de1
Displayinputs: Chance Plausibility

Close Dose_response_model

Module Mortality_assessment
Title: Mortality assessment
Author: mtad
Date: 21. Marta 2005 11:58
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 240,360,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Diagstate: 1,598,498,658,380,17

Index Endpoint
Title: Endpoint
Definition: ['Cardiopulmonary','Lung ca','All others']
Nodelocation: 240,192,-3
Nodesize: 48,12
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,410

Variable Strategies
Title: Strategies
Definition: Table(Self)(~
1,3,4,10)
Indexvals: ['Current fleet','Modern diesel','Diesel with particle tr~~
ap','Natural gas bus']
Nodelocation: 352,80,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,363
Defnstate: 2,611,131,416,303,0,MIDM
Displayoutputs: Constant Only_four_strategies

Objective Health_effects
Title: Health effects
Definition: var a:= sum(Health_effect,endpoint);~
a:= slice(a,Alternative_strategi,Strategies);~
a[Scenario='PLJ 2020']
Nodelocation: 352,152,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,449
Valuestate: 2,214,139,538,246,0,CONF
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:10~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:5~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Baroverlap:0~
Linestyle:10~
Frame:1~
Grid:1~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:0~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:-5~
Xmaximum:35~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:1~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:5~
Xintervals:8~
Yintervals:0~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Fontstyle: Arial, 2
Att__graphprintscali: 98,1,1,0,2,9,4744,6798,7

Variable Mortality_data
Title: Mortality data
Units: deaths/a
Definition: Table(Cause_of_death)(~
3338,317,2886,6541)
Nodelocation: 112,152,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,240,66,476,539
Defnstate: 2,325,209,416,303,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 2,504,514,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 65535,52427,65534
Reference: 30. Statistics Finland (2004). Mortality in Helsinki Metro~~
politan Area 1996. Helsinki: Statistics Finland.

Variable Health_effect
Title: Health effect
Units: deaths/a
Definition: using a:= ((Exp((Mortality_rate1*Bus_pm_scenarios))-1)*Mo~~
rtality_data) do~
a[cause_of_death=Endpoint]
Nodelocation: 240,152,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,216,130,476,431
Valuestate: 2,134,235,1009,329,0,CONF
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:10~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:5~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Baroverlap:0~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:1~
Grid:1~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:0~
Xmaximum:1~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:1~
Zminimum:0~
Zmaximum:1~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:0~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~

Att__totalsindex: Index Cause_of_death, Index Endpoint, Variable Self~~


Objective Table_iv
Title: Table IV
Definition: Var a:= slice(Health_effect,Alternative_strategi,Strategi~~
es);~
a[Scenario='PLJ 2020']
Nodelocation: 352,216,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,422
Valuestate: 2,141,178,560,234,0,CONF
Aliases: Alias Table_iv1
Reformval: [Strategies, Probability1 ]
Displayoutputs: Constant Levels_of_pm_and_the, Constant The_difference_in_th~~

Att__totalsindex: Index Endpoint

Constant Only_four_strategies
Title: Only four strategies were defined
Nodelocation: 512,80,1
Nodesize: 64,29
Aliases: Alias Only_four_strategie1
Displayinputs: Variable Strategies

Close Mortality_assessment

Alias We_selected_the_pub1
Title: We selected the public-transportation-intensive scenario
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 424,104,1
Nodesize: 68,36
Original: We_selected_the_publ

Alias Emissions_from_buse1
Title: Emissions from buses is only small fraction of total traffic e~~
missions
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 432,192,1
Nodesize: 60,48
Nodecolor: 65535,65532,19661
Original: Emissions_from_buses

Alias The_exposure_was_es1
Title: The exposure was estimated by using two models
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 104,192,1
Nodesize: 56,36
Original: The_exposure_was_est

Alias Plausibility_was_de1
Title: Plausibility was defined as the probability that the observed ~~
dose-response relationship actually represents a causal association
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 424,336,1
Nodesize: 80,68
Original: Plausibility_was_def

Alias Only_four_strategie1
Title: Only four strategies were defined
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 104,360,1
Nodesize: 64,29
Original: Only_four_strategies

Close Model1

Module Importance_analyses
Title: Importance analyses
Author: mtad
Date: 22. Marta 2005 9:49
Saveauthor: mtad
Savedate: 22. Marta 2005 9:48
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 752,104,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodeinfo: 1,0,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0
Diagstate: 1,520,81,517,417,17

Index Co1
Title: Co
Definition: ['Hei_index','Cause_of_death','Data']
Nodelocation: 216,200,1
Nodesize: 48,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,353

Objective Importance_1
Title: Importance (figure 1)
Definition: subscript(Sort_of_the_data,Hei_output3,Variable3)
Nodelocation: 216,304,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,422
Valuestate: 2,485,195,497,291,0,MIDM
Aliases: Alias Importance_2
Displayoutputs: Constant The_dose_response_re

Variable Health_comparison_i1
Title: Health comparison importance
Units: rank correlation
Definition: using b:= Abs( RankCorrel( Health_effects_input, Health_c~~
omparison ) ) do~
using c:= b[Alternative_strategi='BAU A', Scenario='PLJ 2020'] do~
b
Nodelocation: 216,56,1
Nodesize: 48,29
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,485
Valuestate: 2,304,384,824,314,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Hei_index, Alternative_strategi ]

Index Hei_output3
Title: Hei output
Definition: ['Plausibility of Cardiopulmonary mortality','Plausibilit~~
y of Lung cancer mortality','Plausibility of All other mortality','Do~~
se-response coefficient for cardiopulmonary mortality','Dose-response~~
 coefficient for Lung cancer mortality','Dose-response coefficient fo~~
r All other mortality','Relative emission factor uncertainty','Relati~~
ve weight factor for road traffic emissions','Exposure to road traffi~~
c PM2.5','Concentration of combustion-based long-range transported PM~~
2.5','The fraction of bus exposure of total traffic exposure']
Nodelocation: 368,168,1
Nodesize: 48,12
Windstate: 2,375,108,476,536
Valuestate: 2,532,47,416,303,0,MIDM

Index Ro1
Title: Ro
Definition: sequence(1,size(Health_comparison_i1)/size(Alternative_st~~
rategi))
Nodelocation: 216,168,1
Nodesize: 48,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,449
Valuestate: 2,168,178,416,303,0,MIDM

Variable Sort_of_the_data
Title: Sort of the data
Definition: using a:=Health_comparison_i1[Alternative_strategi='CRT f~~
ilter C'] do~
using b:= mdarraytotable(a,Ro1,Co1) do~
using c:= slice(b,Ro1,Hei_table) do~
c[Co1='Data']
Nodelocation: 216,128,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,473
Valuestate: 2,567,466,598,330,0,MIDM

Variable Variable3
Title: Variable
Definition: Sortindex( 1-Sort_of_the_data)
Nodelocation: 216,240,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,461
Valuestate: 2,473,153,722,427,0,MIDM

Index Hei_index
Title: Hei index
Definition: ['Plausibility','Mortality','Emission factor','Traffic iF~~
','Road traffic PM','Long range transport','Bus relation']
Nodelocation: 88,96,1
Nodesize: 48,12
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,404

Variable Health_effects_input
Title: Health effects input
Definition: Table(Hei_index)(~
Plausibility,Crude_mortality_rat2,Relative_emission_f2,Weight_factors~~
_[Pm_source='Road traffic'],Road_traffic,Long_range_transport,Bus_fra~~
ction_)
Nodelocation: 88,56,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,428
Defnstate: 2,20,150,416,303,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 2,259,89,734,426,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Hei_index, Alternative_strategi ]

Variable Health_comparison
Title: Health comparison
Definition: using a:= health_effect[Scenario='PLJ 2020', cause_of_dea~~
th=Endpoint] do~
using b:= sum(a,Endpoint) do~
using c:= b-b[Alternative_strategi='Natural gas G31']~
do c
Nodelocation: 368,56,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,458
Valuestate: 2,124,74,416,303,0,MIDM

Variable Hei_table
Title: Hei table
Definition: Table(Hei_output3)(~
1,2,3,5,6,7,9,13,17,21,25)
Nodelocation: 368,128,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,476,473

Close Importance_analyses

Alias Table_iv1
Title: Table IV
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 320,144,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Original: Table_iv

Text Te5
Description: Reference:~
Marko Tainio, Jouni T. Tuomisto, Otto HŠnninen, PŠivi Aarnio, Kimmo J~~
. Koistinen, Matti J. Jantunen and Juha Pekkanen.~
~
Health effects caused by primary particulate matter (PM2.5) emitted f~~
rom buses in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area, Finland~
~
Risk Analysis, Vol. 25, No.1, 2005. pp.151-160.
Nodelocation: 120,128,-1
Nodesize: 108,112

Constant Levels_of_pm_and_the
Title: Levels of PM and the corresponding health effects can be affec~~
ted to some extent by changing bus types
Nodelocation: 480,144,1
Nodesize: 76,48
Nodecolor: 65535,65532,19661
Displayinputs: Objective Table_iv

Constant The_difference_in_th
Title: The difference in the excess mortality between natural gas bus~~
es and the present diesel engines with proper trapping system is not ~~
large
Nodelocation: 320,256,1
Nodesize: 76,63
Nodecolor: 65535,65532,19661
Displayinputs: Objective Table_iv

Alias Importance_2
Title: Importance (figure 1)
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 624,104,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Original: Importance_1

Constant The_dose_response_re
Title: The dose-response relationship and the emission factors were i~~
dentified as the main sources of uncertainty in the model
Nodelocation: 624,288,1
Nodesize: 72,60
Nodecolor: 65535,65532,19661
Displayinputs: Objective Importance_1

Close Gasbus_model